Planning for 2018

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08elf

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2011
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Good options in the forwards, too. Venables, Rioli and Ryan should all play early and should have reasonable JS; Ahern a chance (sat out the North intra iirc); Higgins might play early; Rayner should play round 1 and should have good JS so could be worth the extra coin.
Higgins has been ruled out by Hardwick today for an early debut, unless something crazy happens. I'm guessing that'll mean people will be jumping on Rayner as a premium rookie to start on the ground, and will probably have one of Venables, Rioli and Ryan on field with 1 or both on the bench. Ahern is fine, they were just managing his minutes to prepare him for R1.
 

azza77

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 21, 2012
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with Riley Knight doing an ankle, Galluci would be right in the mix now.

We will probably talk him up all pre-season, and he even have a good JLT, only for round 1 to come along and our shitty selection panel name Poholke emergency and roll with some old hack like Mackay or Gibson instead because it’s “safe”.

Just watch closely. If he does get named, given Greenwood and Knight will be underdone, he might get a solid 5 games or so.
 

VSTone

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 17, 2010
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We will probably talk him up all pre-season, and he even have a good JLT, only for round 1 to come along and our shitty selection panel name Poholke emergency and roll with some old hack like Mackay or Gibson instead because it’s “safe”.

Just watch closely. If he does get named, given Greenwood and Knight will be underdone, he might get a solid 5 games or so.

and they'll roll with Tex even if he's still in the moon boot...
 

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Aug 14, 2009
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Port Kennedy
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What are we looking for in these AFLX games?
If some rookies play basically just how comfortable they look. But aside from that its not really looking that relevant.

I get Twenty20 cricket as test and one day numbers were trending downwards so they needed to revamp and make it more up tempo. AFL numbers are fine and I really don't see the need for the AFLX. But we shall see.
 
Jan 8, 2018
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If some rookies play basically just how comfortable they look. But aside from that its not really looking that relevant.

I get Twenty20 cricket as test and one day numbers were trending downwards so they needed to revamp and make it more up tempo. AFL numbers are fine and I really don't see the need for the AFLX. But we shall see.
Any football is better than no football, i am looking forward to seeing the kids run around!
 

HawkerHurricane

Inaugural Mt. Barker Eagle, Current Bunbury Shark
Oct 12, 2017
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Bunbury, Western Australia
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How many of Rioli, Venables and Ryan can actually fit in the team though. I like all the options but unfortunately can see them all in and out of the team early while they find the right mix.

I was at the Sam Mitchell panel night down at the Busselton footy club the other night, and when asked about Rioli, he said "get him in your Dream Team", so for the price, I 've gone with him & Venables :handok:
 
Aug 9, 2017
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How many rookies are people running in the Mids at the moment?

It is so hard because of how stacked of premiums, value mids and rookies it is. While both defence and forwards are underwhelming. I have only been running 2 all pre season but thinking about dropping a gun and getting a better rookie to spend the money elsewhere.

Do you think it is better to run the better rookie or just deal with the not as good rooks and bank the points in the mid?
 

VSTone

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 17, 2010
16,264
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How many rookies are people running in the Mids at the moment?

It is so hard because of how stacked of premiums, value mids and rookies it is. While both defence and forwards are underwhelming. I have only been running 2 all pre season but thinking about dropping a gun and getting a better rookie to spend the money elsewhere.

Do you think it is better to run the better rookie or just deal with the not as good rooks and bank the points in the mid?
I think it will come down to r1 team selections and there's a fair bit of water to go under the bridge yet. just keep your watchlist updated.
 
upload_2018-2-15_14-26-48.png

Thoughts?

My entire bench are basically placeholders. As are the starting 170k'ers.
 

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VSTone

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 17, 2010
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109k. Any suggestions?
First of all Nic Nat is at a stretch to play early, so have a plan for that (Lycett).
I expect Sam Gibson from the Crows to run with to Merrett in round 1 and Martin in round 2... so i think both Martin and Merrett can be cheaper in r3 than at the start.
You will have to probably downgrade a gun somewhere to free up the cash to fill those rookie spots.
I'd be looking at the players who you think won't improve their output on last year except for Titch. (Laird, Yeo & Simpson), I think teams will sit on Laird this season and it may limit his scoring, doesn't mean he still wont go number one defender though.
G/L
 
Jan 8, 2018
1,414
1,303
AFL Club
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How many rookies are people running in the Mids at the moment?

It is so hard because of how stacked of premiums, value mids and rookies it is. While both defence and forwards are underwhelming. I have only been running 2 all pre season but thinking about dropping a gun and getting a better rookie to spend the money elsewhere.

Do you think it is better to run the better rookie or just deal with the not as good rooks and bank the points in the mid?
I am hoping to squeeze a 170K mid, like a Wigg into the midfield starting squad to free up some cash... JLT and Teams for R1 and going to be where the business gets real
 
First of all Nic Nat is at a stretch to play early, so have a plan for that (Lycett).
I expect Sam Gibson from the Crows to run with to Merrett in round 1 and Martin in round 2... so i think both Martin and Merrett can be cheaper in r3 than at the start.
You will have to probably downgrade a gun somewhere to free up the cash to fill those rookie spots.
I'd be looking at the players who you think won't improve their output on last year except for Titch. (Laird, Yeo & Simpson), I think teams will sit on Laird this season and it may limit his scoring, doesn't mean he still wont go number one defender though.
G/L
Yeh, already have a plan for NicNat. Can swap Merrett out for Cripps which would free up another 120k.

Laird is an interesting one. Having Gibbs there could help or hinder him. I still think he'll be in the top 3 defenders so I'm happy to set and forget.

No doubt will need to make a few changes when teams are announced but I'm happy enough with the 3-2-0-3 rookie set up. Not many mid-pricers I'd trust to downgrade a premo to.
 

08elf

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2011
327
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Is only AFLX but loved what i saw from Worpel tonight, looks to be a great chance for round 1.
I haven't see all the games, but on Twitter it said he had 4 touches? Or was it another game he was more impressive in?
 
Aug 9, 2017
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I haven't see all the games, but on Twitter it said he had 4 touches? Or was it another game he was more impressive in?
Not sure of the stats but he was impressive all throughout the night i thought. His defensive pressure in a game that isn't made for it was outstanding, his break away speed was a highlight and his composure stood out as well. His body is ready made for AFL and i am pretty sure we will see him early on in the season if not round 1.
 

08elf

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2011
327
369
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Richmond
Yeh, already have a plan for NicNat. Can swap Merrett out for Cripps which would free up another 120k.

Laird is an interesting one. Having Gibbs there could help or hinder him. I still think he'll be in the top 3 defenders so I'm happy to set and forget.

No doubt will need to make a few changes when teams are announced but I'm happy enough with the 3-2-0-3 rookie set up. Not many mid-pricers I'd trust to downgrade a premo to.
I'm starting to waiver on Laird as a lock for my R1 team. Perhaps I can downgrade to another premium DEF and use the Laird cash to get improvements elsewhere. At present I'm looking at 4 premiums in DEF:
  • Laird will be top 6, but I feel he hasn't got improvement in his score so he'll either be the same or at some stage slightly cheaper;
  • Yeo is high risk / high reward, I don't think we'll know until R1 what he's doing and even if he'll hold the same role week in / out.
So I started focusing on the potential under priced premium DEFs and for me at present this is the list is as below ranking them from Locked / Highly Likely / Likely / Maybe :
  • Tuohy. Completely under recognized as a fantasy player, but with Mackie out, I see him controlling the backline like Docherty has - top 6 (Locked);
  • L.McDonald. Moving into a midfield role but listed as a D/M. Will get more of the pill and I expect him to push a 90-95 av which would put him in the mix - top 6 (Highly Likely);
  • Sicily. Dominated as a floating DEF. I see him being capable of matching output with Yeo, and he's also got the same risk reward - top 6 (Maybe)
  • Burton. My opinion the kid is set to take the comp by storm this season. He should've been the rising star last season and I can't see him slowing down this season, going 85+ just a question of ceiling. Top 6 (Likely)
  • B.Ellis. He's got history of a fantasy friendly game, and although he's now in the DEF not on the wing he can still find the pill. The Tigers direct game plan is probably the biggest mark against him at present. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Roberton. Dominated the start of 2017 and was over the 100 av for a long time, a change in roles an structure saw him slide down, but for me he's got everything going to suggest he can be a top DEF this season. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • K.Kolojashnhij. Forget the concussions, he can play so it's more about him being selected on the park. Given the lack of midfield depth at the suns this season, I can see him roaming the wing so the Suns can get more games into Scrimshaw and co in DEF. People might've forgotten but he was the Witherden of 2 years ago. Top 6 (Likely).
  • Salem. Demons improve and this is the guy they are trying to get the ball into the hands of as they exit from DEF. Vince is gone and although Lewis might slot back into the other HBF role, Salems ability to get up and down the ground sees him pick up lots of touches for a DEF. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Hanley. If he plays midfield which he'll likely do, then he's going to score 90+ and that puts him right in the mix as super under priced. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • McGrath. Great 1st year, but what does the 2nd year hold? I see him improving and he's shown at the junior level he's capable of scoring, once racking up 200+. But I can't see him getting enough MID time, with all the other MID players Essendon are touting this season. He'll still be in the HBF / Wing role and he'll improve, but I think more to an 80 av not 90+.
  • Houston / Bonner. Smokey? Sure, but both are really coming on. Both have elite kicking skills, so they are likely to be used coming from DEF. Pittard seems like he's on the outter as the power get these kids to replace Broadbent and Hartlett longer term. I can't see them getting over 90, but I can see them both going 80+ and for their value, I think they'll be a better better (although not as safe) as McGrath.
I know this isn't all players in the mix, but I had to keep the post to under a page ;)

For the record my Top 6 DEF prediction (without DPP during the season):
  1. Larid
  2. Simpson
  3. Hibberd
  4. Touhy
  5. Roberton
  6. Burton
 

VSTone

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 17, 2010
16,264
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I'm starting to waiver on Laird as a lock for my R1 team. Perhaps I can downgrade to another premium DEF and use the Laird cash to get improvements elsewhere. At present I'm looking at 4 premiums in DEF:
  • Laird will be top 6, but I feel he hasn't got improvement in his score so he'll either be the same or at some stage slightly cheaper;
  • Yeo is high risk / high reward, I don't think we'll know until R1 what he's doing and even if he'll hold the same role week in / out.
So I started focusing on the potential under priced premium DEFs and for me at present this is the list is as below ranking them from Locked / Highly Likely / Likely / Maybe :
  • Tuohy. Completely under recognized as a fantasy player, but with Mackie out, I see him controlling the backline like Docherty has - top 6 (Locked);
  • L.McDonald. Moving into a midfield role but listed as a D/M. Will get more of the pill and I expect him to push a 90-95 av which would put him in the mix - top 6 (Highly Likely);
  • Sicily. Dominated as a floating DEF. I see him being capable of matching output with Yeo, and he's also got the same risk reward - top 6 (Maybe)
  • Burton. My opinion the kid is set to take the comp by storm this season. He should've been the rising star last season and I can't see him slowing down this season, going 85+ just a question of ceiling. Top 6 (Likely)
  • B.Ellis. He's got history of a fantasy friendly game, and although he's now in the DEF not on the wing he can still find the pill. The Tigers direct game plan is probably the biggest mark against him at present. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Roberton. Dominated the start of 2017 and was over the 100 av for a long time, a change in roles an structure saw him slide down, but for me he's got everything going to suggest he can be a top DEF this season. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • K.Kolojashnhij. Forget the concussions, he can play so it's more about him being selected on the park. Given the lack of midfield depth at the suns this season, I can see him roaming the wing so the Suns can get more games into Scrimshaw and co in DEF. People might've forgotten but he was the Witherden of 2 years ago. Top 6 (Likely).
  • Salem. Demons improve and this is the guy they are trying to get the ball into the hands of as they exit from DEF. Vince is gone and although Lewis might slot back into the other HBF role, Salems ability to get up and down the ground sees him pick up lots of touches for a DEF. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Hanley. If he plays midfield which he'll likely do, then he's going to score 90+ and that puts him right in the mix as super under priced. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • McGrath. Great 1st year, but what does the 2nd year hold? I see him improving and he's shown at the junior level he's capable of scoring, once racking up 200+. But I can't see him getting enough MID time, with all the other MID players Essendon are touting this season. He'll still be in the HBF / Wing role and he'll improve, but I think more to an 80 av not 90+.
  • Houston / Bonner. Smokey? Sure, but both are really coming on. Both have elite kicking skills, so they are likely to be used coming from DEF. Pittard seems like he's on the outter as the power get these kids to replace Broadbent and Hartlett longer term. I can't see them getting over 90, but I can see them both going 80+ and for their value, I think they'll be a better better (although not as safe) as McGrath.
I know this isn't all players in the mix, but I had to keep the post to under a page ;)

For the record my Top 6 DEF prediction (without DPP during the season):
  1. Larid
  2. Simpson
  3. Hibberd
  4. Touhy
  5. Roberton
  6. Burton

that's a great post 08elf ... Vlastuin is another who started to find plenty of it toward the end of last season. I don't rate the Dees much at all but I'll take a good look at Salem on account of your observations here. :thumbsu:
 
Aug 9, 2017
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47,144
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I'm starting to waiver on Laird as a lock for my R1 team. Perhaps I can downgrade to another premium DEF and use the Laird cash to get improvements elsewhere. At present I'm looking at 4 premiums in DEF:
  • Laird will be top 6, but I feel he hasn't got improvement in his score so he'll either be the same or at some stage slightly cheaper;
  • Yeo is high risk / high reward, I don't think we'll know until R1 what he's doing and even if he'll hold the same role week in / out.
So I started focusing on the potential under priced premium DEFs and for me at present this is the list is as below ranking them from Locked / Highly Likely / Likely / Maybe :
  • Tuohy. Completely under recognized as a fantasy player, but with Mackie out, I see him controlling the backline like Docherty has - top 6 (Locked);
  • L.McDonald. Moving into a midfield role but listed as a D/M. Will get more of the pill and I expect him to push a 90-95 av which would put him in the mix - top 6 (Highly Likely);
  • Sicily. Dominated as a floating DEF. I see him being capable of matching output with Yeo, and he's also got the same risk reward - top 6 (Maybe)
  • Burton. My opinion the kid is set to take the comp by storm this season. He should've been the rising star last season and I can't see him slowing down this season, going 85+ just a question of ceiling. Top 6 (Likely)
  • B.Ellis. He's got history of a fantasy friendly game, and although he's now in the DEF not on the wing he can still find the pill. The Tigers direct game plan is probably the biggest mark against him at present. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Roberton. Dominated the start of 2017 and was over the 100 av for a long time, a change in roles an structure saw him slide down, but for me he's got everything going to suggest he can be a top DEF this season. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • K.Kolojashnhij. Forget the concussions, he can play so it's more about him being selected on the park. Given the lack of midfield depth at the suns this season, I can see him roaming the wing so the Suns can get more games into Scrimshaw and co in DEF. People might've forgotten but he was the Witherden of 2 years ago. Top 6 (Likely).
  • Salem. Demons improve and this is the guy they are trying to get the ball into the hands of as they exit from DEF. Vince is gone and although Lewis might slot back into the other HBF role, Salems ability to get up and down the ground sees him pick up lots of touches for a DEF. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Hanley. If he plays midfield which he'll likely do, then he's going to score 90+ and that puts him right in the mix as super under priced. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • McGrath. Great 1st year, but what does the 2nd year hold? I see him improving and he's shown at the junior level he's capable of scoring, once racking up 200+. But I can't see him getting enough MID time, with all the other MID players Essendon are touting this season. He'll still be in the HBF / Wing role and he'll improve, but I think more to an 80 av not 90+.
  • Houston / Bonner. Smokey? Sure, but both are really coming on. Both have elite kicking skills, so they are likely to be used coming from DEF. Pittard seems like he's on the outter as the power get these kids to replace Broadbent and Hartlett longer term. I can't see them getting over 90, but I can see them both going 80+ and for their value, I think they'll be a better better (although not as safe) as McGrath.
I know this isn't all players in the mix, but I had to keep the post to under a page ;)

For the record my Top 6 DEF prediction (without DPP during the season):
  1. Larid
  2. Simpson
  3. Hibberd
  4. Touhy
  5. Roberton
  6. Burton
Great post mate.

I agree with what you say about Laird but i just can't leave him out, i have doubts over so many defenders and he is just about the only one i have faith in. Even if i have to over pay for him i think it is worth it for the security.

The thing that i am finding hard about the defenders is that i can see a whole bunch on that list going 90+ but they just just as easily finish in the 80's. Trying to find the right ones is messing with my mind.

I am currently running with Laird, Simpson, McDonald and Burton as my premium defenders.
 
I'm starting to waiver on Laird as a lock for my R1 team. Perhaps I can downgrade to another premium DEF and use the Laird cash to get improvements elsewhere. At present I'm looking at 4 premiums in DEF:
  • Laird will be top 6, but I feel he hasn't got improvement in his score so he'll either be the same or at some stage slightly cheaper;
  • Yeo is high risk / high reward, I don't think we'll know until R1 what he's doing and even if he'll hold the same role week in / out.
So I started focusing on the potential under priced premium DEFs and for me at present this is the list is as below ranking them from Locked / Highly Likely / Likely / Maybe :
  • Tuohy. Completely under recognized as a fantasy player, but with Mackie out, I see him controlling the backline like Docherty has - top 6 (Locked);
  • L.McDonald. Moving into a midfield role but listed as a D/M. Will get more of the pill and I expect him to push a 90-95 av which would put him in the mix - top 6 (Highly Likely);
  • Sicily. Dominated as a floating DEF. I see him being capable of matching output with Yeo, and he's also got the same risk reward - top 6 (Maybe)
  • Burton. My opinion the kid is set to take the comp by storm this season. He should've been the rising star last season and I can't see him slowing down this season, going 85+ just a question of ceiling. Top 6 (Likely)
  • B.Ellis. He's got history of a fantasy friendly game, and although he's now in the DEF not on the wing he can still find the pill. The Tigers direct game plan is probably the biggest mark against him at present. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Roberton. Dominated the start of 2017 and was over the 100 av for a long time, a change in roles an structure saw him slide down, but for me he's got everything going to suggest he can be a top DEF this season. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • K.Kolojashnhij. Forget the concussions, he can play so it's more about him being selected on the park. Given the lack of midfield depth at the suns this season, I can see him roaming the wing so the Suns can get more games into Scrimshaw and co in DEF. People might've forgotten but he was the Witherden of 2 years ago. Top 6 (Likely).
  • Salem. Demons improve and this is the guy they are trying to get the ball into the hands of as they exit from DEF. Vince is gone and although Lewis might slot back into the other HBF role, Salems ability to get up and down the ground sees him pick up lots of touches for a DEF. Top 6 (Maybe)
  • Hanley. If he plays midfield which he'll likely do, then he's going to score 90+ and that puts him right in the mix as super under priced. Top 6 (Highly Likely)
  • McGrath. Great 1st year, but what does the 2nd year hold? I see him improving and he's shown at the junior level he's capable of scoring, once racking up 200+. But I can't see him getting enough MID time, with all the other MID players Essendon are touting this season. He'll still be in the HBF / Wing role and he'll improve, but I think more to an 80 av not 90+.
  • Houston / Bonner. Smokey? Sure, but both are really coming on. Both have elite kicking skills, so they are likely to be used coming from DEF. Pittard seems like he's on the outter as the power get these kids to replace Broadbent and Hartlett longer term. I can't see them getting over 90, but I can see them both going 80+ and for their value, I think they'll be a better better (although not as safe) as McGrath.
I know this isn't all players in the mix, but I had to keep the post to under a page ;)

For the record my Top 6 DEF prediction (without DPP during the season):
  1. Larid
  2. Simpson
  3. Hibberd
  4. Touhy
  5. Roberton
  6. Burton
If you think Laird will be the top scoring defender you start with him. If you don't you will either have to make a double downgrade to upgrade a rookie or get very lucky with a midpricer.
Hinkley loves Jasper. Houston could push an 80 average at best (has good disposal but isn't a rebounding defender). Bonner is an interesting one as some people see him as a winger but he is probably in the 21-24 player range at the moment.

EDIT: Why do you have McDonald as highly likely top 6 and Burton as only likely yet Burton makes your predicted top 6?
 

08elf

Team Captain
Sep 6, 2011
327
369
AFL Club
Richmond
Great post mate.

I agree with what you say about Laird but i just can't leave him out, i have doubts over so many defenders and he is just about the only one i have faith in. Even if i have to over pay for him i think it is worth it for the security.

The thing that i am finding hard about the defenders is that i can see a whole bunch on that list going 90+ but they just just as easily finish in the 80's. Trying to find the right ones is messing with my mind.

I am currently running with Laird, Simpson, McDonald and Burton as my premium defenders.
I think those 4 will stand you in gre
If you think Laird will be the top scoring defender you start with him. If you don't you will either have to make a double downgrade to upgrade a rookie or get very lucky with a midpricer.
Hinkley loves Jasper. Houston could push an 80 average at best (has good disposal but isn't a rebounding defender). Bonner is an interesting one as some people see him as a winger but he is probably in the 21-24 player range at the moment.

EDIT: Why do you have McDonald as highly likely top 6 and Burton as only likely yet Burton makes your predicted top 6?
McDonald highly like to average more playing a predominately midfield role, especially given the lack of quality depth at the Roos this season. Burton being in the top 6 is a personal gut feeling, one that I can't justify on previous performance or obvious opportunity to make a case for. My personal belief is he'll be a smokey for an outside midfield role for the hawks this season, replacing Hartung and floating back as a defensive winger. We are yet to see that eventuate and we haven't' got into JLT either.
 
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