Yeah that's honestly what I'm thinking too. Him and Danger could genuinely get forward status come Round 6. It'll be ridiculous how many teams will have both of them if they do though haha.
Planning for 2018
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Hard to get a read on him to be honest, probably the biggest JLT watch of the year for me out of the rookies.
Missed all of last year with injury but i really think that this could be his year.
The huge positive for him is he knows how to find the footy, he is a great accumulator and has managed to even hit the scoreboard at VFL level. The knock on him from some people is his disposal and they think that could keep him out of the team. He has some competition for spots with Worpel impressing and Cousins having a great first season at the club.
He is coming in to his 3rd season at the club has shown he is above VFL level. The only reason he hasn't had an extended run in the team is injuries and i think Clarko will want to reward him with a chance ahead of some of the first and second year players. If he is named round 1 he will almost be a lock for me. $210k he is cheaper than a lot of the high draft picks from this year and has a body ready to stand up to playing AFL footy week in week out. He is a ball magnet and has always had a fantasy game about him.
I'm honestly not convinced on him at this stage, so I'm not overly fussed. Given he's not a big body, he's shown he's really susceptible to a tag, so I think he'll be quite sporadic in his 110+ scores. He'll still go big here and there, but he'll have a down game at one stage, and that's when I'll probably grab him. Again, Mitchell, Parker and Martin are the only one's I have complete confidence in at this stage. This is a bit of a list, but this is how I've come to where I am with my midfield and why players like Zerrett aren't in:
Titch (LOCKED) We all know why - 'oink oink'
Danger (Considering, depends on JLT and how much his role affects him)
Ablett (Strongly considering, but am wary of the chance of him being tagged with Danger being forward and injury history)
Zerrett (Wary, due to susceptibility to a tag and the absolute plethora of midfielders that are reported to be going through)
Adams (Considering, depends on role at half-back and how much midfield time he gets. Should get DPP early on I reckon)
Zorko (Avoiding. Way too susceptible to tags. Can go huge, but can also be sporadic as hell)
Martin (LOCKED) Big body, able to 'don't argue' out of a tag. Consistent and doesn't miss matches
Kelly (Considered, but honestly just looking at Coniglio as a $132K cheaper option. Will also cop a tag more often next season)
Duncan (Strongly considering. With Ablett and Danger the unknown, Menegola playing more forward and Selwood being the only other 'full-time' mid, Duncan is one of those options that could absolutely explode this season. Apparently he's impressed more than anyone during Geelong training and sim matches. Huge POD and smokey if he goes to the next level like a lot around the club are saying. Had a 169 last season so has shown he has a fantasy game)
Gibbs, Sloane, Crouch Brothers (Unsure. Brad is out according to reports and Sloane is not good with a tag, so Gibbs and M Crouch are viable options, but I just don't know what effect Gibbs will have on Crouch's scoring. Definitely a 'watch this space' during JLT
Murphy (Avoid. Can go big but never huge and is also number 1 in line for a tag now that Cripps has been touted as playing 'more forward time.' Will still be good, but far too much for his output.
Pendles, Sidebottom Treloar (Treloar is a strong consideration but was up and down last year. Pendles' role is changing, so I see his score dropping a bit. Sidebottom consistent as hell, but doesn't go big and can have the odd down game. Better for around his price)
Beams (LOCKED) Provided his injury history is behind him, his ability to go massive and just rack up scores at will is hard to dismiss. Always plays midfield and won't be sporadic in his scoring. Zorko more likely to get tagged, but could cop the odd one here and there. Not enough to dismiss him though.
Jack Macrae (Considered due to consistency but Beams at at $4K more can go much bigger)
Rocky (Reasons given above on thread)
Oliver (Considered, but not a strong enough fantasy game yet to justify bringing him in. Could be an upgrade later on in the season though)
Seb Ross (Considered. Absolute gun and can rack up hundreds consistently, but too many better below him that are cheaper)
Cripps (Considered but avoiding. Reports are that he's 'looking to increase his forward line time' and will be switched with Charlie Curnow during games to 'increase Curnow's education in the midfield.')
Parker (LOCKED) This is probably one of my biggest certainties. Hanners and JPK have both been coming back from injury and are still not at 100% a week out from JLT. Heeney is tracking ok, but still not at full 100% due to pre-season issues. Parker is the only mid along with Lloyd who is confirmed to be tracking at full strength. Parker can already go big, but without the others, he could go massive
Fyfe (Strongly considering, due to strength in the contest, consistency and absolute bargain price. Only question mark is his ability to go big consistently, as he has never had a huge fantasy game. Watching with interest during JLT)
Joel Selwood (LOCKED) Given that Ablett will probably cop a tag more than Selwood and Danger will play a lot of time up forward (50/50 most likely), Selwood could easily go 100+ average without breaking a sweat. Top score of 175 last season and ability to consistently score with ease if not tagged makes him hard to go past. For his ability that price is ridiculous as well
Stephen Coniglio (LOCKED) Cheap man's Josh Kelly and could average 110 this season if Kelly cops a tag and he shoulders a lot of the midfield load. 130+ in his finals series last year shows his considerable ability. Ridiculously cheap like Sel, Fyfe and Parker
Steven (Considering. Can go big but is a 'wait and see' during JLT to see if he can get back to his best of a few years ago)
Connor Blakely (Considering, depending on if he gets 'that' role across half back again. Will go 110+ without trying if he does)
Luke Dahlhaus (Locked - For now - in FWD line) Still averaged 85 in a terrible year and has reportedly been the 'standout' along with Libba during pre-season. Could still change depending on JLT form, but as long as he averages 90+ then I'm happy
Luke Macdonald (Considering. Has DPP and cheap as hell for a mid/def. Will move into the Roos midfield this season and could average 90+. Roos don't have a strong fantasy game, so only reason I'm on the fence still)
Phew haha. A lot to consider and this could all change, but these are my preliminary assessments thus far. All the rest are either below 600K or aren't even worth looking at due to roles, inconsistency or better options at a cheaper price. A few of these could still definitely change, but pretty sure Zerrett won't make the cut.
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First of all mate, great post. Love the amount of thoughts and effort gone in to it.
I 100% agree on Zorko, Coniglio, Fyfe and Beams. I am not sold on Dusty however. He is coming off one of the most dominant individual seasons in recent years and averaged 113. That is a great average don't get me wrong, but i am not sure if he can improve on that. I look at people around the same price and i can see upside in them, but am not so sure with Dusty. His unselfishness is a great strength of his as a player but a frustrating weakness as a fantasy player. Seeing him dish off so many very kick able goals to get his team mates in to the game is great for the Tigers but frustrating as hell as a fantasy coach. Where is the improvement going to come from?
I have the same concerns over Merrett that you do as well mate. He is a gun, but has shown to be susceptible to a tag and the Bombers midfield is not a strong point, he will always be the first option to be tagged. He is currently in my team but has been in and out for Danger all pre season. With my current structure i am starting with 2 of the big 3 guns (Titch, Zach, Danger) and Titch is the obvious lock. I can see positives and negatives for both of the others and it has been playing on my mind for weeks. Although Danger is the better player, i think Merrett just plays in a way that is conducive for fantasy football. Danger is a superstar but you don't tend to see him run down to the half back flank to get the cheap +6 mark late in a game, obviously that isn't a negative on him as a player but it is a big tick for Merrett as a fantasy player.
I totally agree on Duncan though, i hope i have the courage to start him this year. Could the addition of Ablett have a negative effect on his scoring? Absolutely. Do i think it well? No. Duncan is a very very good player, but no one is going to target him over the other 3. I really think he can go massive this year and excel with the stupidly good midfield they have. I bloody hate Geelong but watching some of the things that midfield is going to be able to do at times this year is going to be magical. The only thing turning me off of him is the price and i am not sure if i will be willing to pay it.
Luke McDonald is a lock for me. I see upside in his game and he is coming in to his peak as a player. It would take a terrible JLT for him not to be in my final team come round 1.
Thanks mate, will keep a very close eye on him
if both of them get dpp the prioirty will be to get them into your forward line asap, I have a plan for both but only starting with Rocky at the moment.
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I understand your technique, no one ever won anything playing it safe... or maybe they did
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Thats true, but if you can have multiple 170k players on the field and by doing so have keepers (set and forgets) this will save you trades as opposed to having 2 x mid price guys that are "safer" but you will have to trade anyway.
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A really good write up from your perspective.
You want to talk about final series, look no further than Luke Shuey, get him in! I wont be, but could be a smokey this year.
I dont think Ablett will play enough games to warrant selection, I cannot see him doing a lot of travel, and the rests and potential late outs are too much for this fantasy couch to endure. I also heard that Cogs was underdone? I am certainly considering him, but that has put me off a little bit.
I am in the NO field for Rocky as well, I cannot trust his body and new team. JLT should tell us a fair bit, but I am close to putting him on the never again list(that list never seems to hold up when i am 1k short of who i want and the next best player is on the never again list)
You haven't followed us very closely over the last 12+ seasons then...
Hi Fella ... I was hoping to flush you out, for the record I love your work/well done... your team selections not so much. Maybe this is the year eh? G/L
that Devon Smith had better not stink it up!
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Sticking he knife in is always a good way
whatever works i guess?Sticking he knife in is always a good way
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You have woken him from his slumber!
rimb
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Haha - first post in over a year is to defend himself from some pretty mild criticism!
Those guys are sooooo defensive. See also their constant mentions of "haters" and "people bagging them".
i had to have a chuckle at the traders banging on about Nathan Freeman as being a lock lock lockity lock or something of the sorts...then nek minnut Nathan Freeman Hamstring injury...
To be fair mate he hardly came in overly defensive. He just simply pointed out that among them they have had multiple seasons finishing in the top 1k. I think it was a fair enough response.
multiple seasons in the top 1k, are you sure?
West Coast just released an article saying Nic Nat is on track to play the second JLT game.
Ahh i can't be certain mate but i am pretty sure they have had some very high finishes in my time following them.
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Thanks mate, really appreciate that
Took a lot of time and put a lot of thought into that when I typed it out, so glad to hear that it wasn't half bad haha.You have a solid point on Dusty. It's also been compounded by the fact that Hardwick has just announced that he wants 'both our superstars (Martin & Cotchin) to play up forward for extended amounts of time.' This worries me and has actually made me change my team already since I wrote the post haha. I'll probably go back to him because he's solid, but then again I could just go down 7K to kelly or 8K up to Adams, so that remains to be seen until JLT takes effect.
Completely agree on your analysis of 'the big 3' as Danger definitely plays that 'beast mode' game, instead of a pure fantasy 'rack up touches and get those +6's' in junk time, sorta game. I'm leaning more towards Danger, just because I know he's hard to tag, and also because even when he plays forward, he still gets a heap of it and kicks goals at will.
Haha, dw mate, I feel the same about Hawthorn. It's in our blood, the rivalry. With that said, I've always appreciated Hodge, Burgoyne and Roughy, true champions. I'm the same with the price re: Duncan though. I said to myself, if he was 750K or below, I wouldn't have even thought about twice about it, would have just snapped him up and kept him in. Problem is, is Sel is 123K less and can probably rack up around the same score too, so it's more a 'wait and see' for me with Dunc as well. As much as I am salivating at our midfield, it's bloody frustrating when it comes to fantasy, as we have so many options that it's hard to pick who's gonna be the 'star' of the show. Ablett could average 120+ unchecked and uninjured. Danger is a freak and can probably do the same, even in the forward line. Selwood can average 105-110 without a tag, and Duncan could average the most if he's the only one playing a permanent role (Scott has talked about rotating Selwood forward too).
Yep, Mcdonald is one where if he has an 80-90 in JLT, or even shows in a half that he can rack 'em up, he'll be in for me too. Again, it's all about JLT
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It's also their team 'The Traders' that's essentially a mix of all their choices, that sometimes ranks really high. From recollection, last year they made top 1000 with that team. I think Roy did really well in 2016 as well. Been a while though so it's hard to remember haha. They're great blokes though. Just not the absolute 'best of the best.'
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