Player Values Distribution

[bombers own]

400K+: 5
350K - 399K: 6
300K - 349K: 2
200K - 299K: 5
100K - 199K: 3+1res
<100K: 1+7res

 

[Cartman121]

Peoples thoughts, playing with two teams at the moment.
This one offers no rookies at all starting.

I have Hill (backline), Rich (midfield) and Yarran (FWD) all on my bench with other 86k players as backup.

400K+: 3
350K - 399K: 5
300K - 349K: 3
200K - 299K: 9
100K - 199K: 5 (3 Reserves)
<100K: 5 (All reserves)

5/7 backlines should be keepers with most playing 21+ games last year
3/6 Mids played most games last year with 3 being borderline (haselby, masten + a smokie)
Lock and leave Rucks im happy with.
Forwards I think I can count on 3 playing most games. However I have one one keeper (pav) with 6 smokies between 196k and $300k, this I guess is where I am worried.

Thoughts?

Sounds scarily similar to my current team.

5/7 backline keepers. 3/6 midfield keepers with 3 borderline - im confident at least 1 will become a keeper. Lock and leave rucks. 1 deadset forward premium, 1 mid-priced keeper. 4 'smokies/cashcows'. Basically only difference is i'm playing a rookie up forward .

Great minds think alike .

Made some changes from my structure on the page before, now i'm certain im set....I think

 

[LemmingMaster]

now i'm certain im set....I think

I know I am almost certainly set, just have to make a few changes then my team is in place, depending on how they perform in the NAB cup.

















*Yes people, it was a joke*

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Currently:

400K+: 3
350K - 399K: 7
300K - 349K: 1
200K - 299K: 9
100K - 199K: 2 (2)
<100K: 0 (6)

 

[Cartman121]

400k+: 3
350k - 399k: 6
300k - 349k: 3
200k - 299k: 7
100k - 199k: 3 (2)
<100k: 0 (6)

 

[pistol17]

400k+: 7
350k - 399k: 5
300k - 349k: 1
200k - 299k: 5
100k - 199k: 4
<100k: 0 (8)

 

[happy_eagle]

I see everyone is using the same strategy
If these cheap players dont become guns (which many years only 3-4 break out) then you will be left with lots of average players waiting to be traded

Last year bigfooty was saying that the way to go was "guns/rookies", and that the least value was in the forwards, so the forward line must be expensive

However the team that won had this "mid range" layout, and it turned out that the least value was in the backs

What is the odds that we have got it wrong again

So I'm always taking into account that bigfooty is wrong on SOME occasions (sometimes we get it right (aka Didak, Porps last year)

 

[Lakey91]

Ok, I'll bite, though this structure will change very soon i would imagine:

400k+: 4
350k - 399k: 8
300k - 349k: 2
200k - 299k: 4
100k - 199k: 4 (1 reserve)
<100k: 0 (7 reserves)

I am hoping to downgrade a few of the 350-400k players to players in 300-350k to free up my cash and make the lower end a bit stronger.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I see everyone is using the same strategy

It is very hard to tell from Player Distributions exactly what strategy people are using.

You can not tell if a person has their 400+k players in the mids, forwards, backs or rucks....and so on.

 

[happy_eagle]

It is very hard to tell from Player Distributions exactly what strategy people are using.

You can not tell if a person has their 400+k players in the mids, forwards, backs or rucks....and so on.

Going by the "post your squads" thread aswell, most are stocking up their backline, playing cheap forwards, and playing no rookies or limited rookies

Im yet to be convinced this is the way to go

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Going by the "post your squads" thread aswell, most are stocking up their backline, playing cheap forwards, and playing no rookies or limited rookies

Im yet to be convinced this is the way to go

I dunno happy, I've seen lots of teams starting 3 or 4 rookies. Also remember back to that poll a while ago.

 

[Decipher]

I must admit the forwardline is offering me very little.

I see very little value in the midrange (not none but not much)

You either are stuck payng close to 400k for a keeper, take a risk on an injury prone player or play a rookie. I see very little value elsewhere. I also dont want to take too many risks. However atleast it has a good arrary of rookie options (Ziebell, Yarran, Gumby etc etc).

I feel theres some good value in the midfield and backs with some good 300-400k keeper improvers. As such I think many have jumped on these offering good value and a good average to build on. Also the Backline has junk rookies to pick from meaning you can afford less risk. Midfield is the inbetween with a moderate selection of rookies so you can take some risks.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Im yet to be convinced this is the way to go

That is good, back your own judgement.

I've gone from thinking there was little value in the lower end backs, now I am starting to see some potential value. Currently I am struggling to find a lot of good value in the midfield $350,000-$200,000.

I still think everyone has their own personal slant on where they see some good value and who they view as being value picks.

The people without an opinion on where the value is and are just using the BF think tank, will normally trip up when the season starts. Without understanding the logic behind why you selected a certain player, you're bound to make a wrong decision when it comes to trading or keeping.

Like most people, I have my views on where I see the value and where I plan to take the risks. Starting 0,1,2,3 and 4 rookies are all options, it is just finding that balance of risk and reward.

 

[Lakey91]

I tend to agree. There isnt really a didak, or porplyzia or deledio (for those good enough to pick up on him) standing out at the moment.

 

[adam10]

I tend to agree. There isnt really a didak, or porplyzia or deledio (for those good enough to pick up on him) standing out at the moment.

Thats why you got to find them. This time last year you were probaly saying the same thing. I reckon the Sylvia/Bate have most of a chance of doing whats Dids/Lids did last season.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

^^ Stormer will still find someone around mid price in the forwards. I see the forward line as pretty basic, i think people will have pretty similar rucks and forwards this year. The forwards you have the top end premiums Pav, Roo, Didak, Richo, Lids. Than you have the lower end premiums (Gia, SJ, NGB, R.Murphy, JB, BJ, Chappy). Than you have te potential keepers (Roughy, Fev, Sylvia) than you have the lower end potential keepers (maybe classified as high end mid prices) T.Cloke, Thomas, M.Bate. Than from their i see players such as Headland, Davey, Varcoe with value but not enough. But after that its the 200k price range (Vez, Lucas, Higgins, Skippy, Alwyn). Than you have the awesome forward rookies for once. Theirs about 10 i like.

Cant wait to trade Ziebell to Ballantyne after round 6

 

[Butane]

I tend to agree. There isnt really a didak, or porplyzia or deledio (for those good enough to pick up on him) standing out at the moment.

Yea there is. Hindsight is always 20/20. I don't kno who they are yet either but at the end of the season it will be obvious.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Yea there is. Hindsight is always 20/20. I don't kno who they are yet either but at the end of the season it will be obvious.

So so true....

Have you managed to get the time machine working? Just have a couple of quick questions that need answered.

 

[Saint KFC]

Yea there is.

The quality of forward midranged improvers is not static over the years. I wouldn't be surprised if there turns out to be less improvers this year than there was last year. (or atleast, less players improving to the amount that Didak, Deledio, Porplyzia etc did last year around that price range)

Currently I am struggling to find a lot of good value in the midfield $350,000-$200,000.

Agreed. Not sold on Masten or Grigg, and there are injury risks associated with Hasleby, Butler and Reilly. I can't see Kerr or McGlynn playing 22 games, I expect a marginal improvement from Foley. Cotchin is rumoured to be an unlikely starter for Round 1, Ebert is coming back from groin surgery. The only remainding options that I would consider are Vince and Tuck.

Personally, I'll probably go for one of these players - but not two (or even three) like some people seem to be doing.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Personally, I'll probably go for one of these players - but not two (or even three) like some people seem to be doing.

I currently have one player from that price range and I am not 100% sold on the option. I am even considering picking a rookie instead and spend the money elsewhere.

The main problem is, I would like someone at that price points for a round 8-12 upgrade to a falling premium. As you said, I just can not seem to find a player that does not give me a number of concerns.

It is either durability issues or I am not sold on them stepping up in points scoring this year to make his inclusion worth while. Would almost prefer to take a punt in the backline that my $300k player will turn into a keeper.

 

[Saint KFC]

I currently have one player from that price range and I am not 100% sold on the option. I am even considering picking a rookie instead and spend the money elsewhere.

Right now, I'm starting a player from that price range and two rookies in the midfield - although I may switch one of the rookies to the forwards and gain a premium in the midfield whilst losing a premium in the forwards - for me, it comes down to questions of structure.

Would I feel more comfortable having 4 midfield rookies (2 starting + 2 bench) in my team or 4 forward rookies (2 starting + 2 bench)?
Will these rookies start regularly from the first round? If so, which ones? If so, for how long will they keep their position in the team and provide a decent points output or bench backup/cashcow?

What is the durability of my forward line like compared to my midfield?
Do I have a durable midfield with undurable forwards, therefore will starting 2 rookies in the forwards couped with my undurable forwardline be a bad idea?

Do I prefer the look of a 400k odd midfield premium or a 400k odd forward premium? These are the questions that I'm going to have to answer before finalising my team.

Just some food for thought - to summarise, I would much prefer to start two rookies in the midfield where the rest of my starting midfielders are likely to play all 22 than start two rookies in the forwardline where I have value picks coming back from injury and ergo lack durability, along with an unclear position and role in their team.

It is all about balancing the risk v the reward.

Would almost prefer to take a punt in the backline that my $300k player will turn into a keeper.

Just on that point, I would say that there are some good potential backline keeper options around that price (260 - 340k). McPhee, Houli, Ellis, Malceski, Hargrave, Mundy, Adcock, Drummond, R. Clarke, Myers - each have their pros and cons which I will let users figure out for themselves.

 

[Cruiser23]

Right now, I'm starting a player from that price range and two rookies in the midfield - although I may switch one of the rookies to the forwards and gain a premium in the midfield whilst losing a premium in the forwards - for me, it comes down to questions of structure.

Would I feel more comfortable having 4 midfield rookies (2 starting + 2 bench) in my team or 4 forward rookies (2 starting + 2 bench)?
Will these rookies start regularly from the first round? If so, which ones? If so, for how long will they keep their position in the team and provide a decent points output or bench backup/cashcow?

What is the durability of my forward line like compared to my midfield?
Do I have a durable midfield with undurable forwards, therefore will starting 2 rookies in the forwards couped with my undurable forwardline be a bad idea?

Do I prefer the look of a 400k odd midfield premium or a 400k odd forward premium? These are the questions that I'm going to have to answer before finalising my team.

Just some food for thought - to summarise, I would much prefer to start two rookies in the midfield where the rest of my starting midfielders are likely to play all 22 than start two rookies in the forwardline where I have value picks coming back from injury and ergo lack durability, along with an unclear position and role in their team.

It is all about balancing the risk v the reward.

For me, the issue with having 2 rookies starting in the midfield is the gap between the quality midfielders and the rookies is much great than in the forward line. Not only that but some of the top forward have plenty of question marks on them that a fair few of them will come down in price, remember J.Brown/S.Johnson/Riewoldt all were at very low prices.

Not only that but with more teams employing the zone defense midfielders prosper much much much more than forward, you just have to look at the Hawks last year. They gave up mass midfield points but the forwards that played against them struggled.

Right now i really don't even want to start 1 rookie in my midfield because of this, i've got 2 low price players in my forward line and i think this is the better way to go, for my team anyway.

 

[thegreenmachine]

I dunno happy, I've seen lots of teams starting 3 or 4 rookies. Also remember back to that poll a while ago.

I'm starting the 2 rookies at the moment.
Anyway, here is my distribution:
400k+: 4 (1 mid, 3 fwds)
350k-399k: 6 (3 defs, 2 mids, 1 ruck, 1 fwd)
300k-349k: 2 (2 defs)
200k-299k: 6 (1 def, 2 mids, 1 ruck, 2 fwds)
100k-199k: 6 (1 def, 1 mid, 1 fwd, 3 res)
<100k: 5 (res)

God knows whether my distribution is correct or how to get it right but...yeah.

 

[drd23]

FanPlanner tells me i have 10 premiums/10 mids/2 cheap/8 rookies

400k+: 5 (1 mid, 1 ruck, 3 fwds)
350k-399k: 5 (3 defs, 2 mids, 1 fwd)
300k-349k: 5 (2 defs, 2 mids, 1 ruck)
200k-299k: 3 (1 def, 1 mids, 1 fwds)
100k-199k: 4 (1 def, 2 fwd, 1 res)
<100k: 8 (1 mid, 7 res)

Like most on here it seems, I am starting 2 rookies as well