Draft Watcher PMBangers 2020 Draft Thread

[PMBangers]

Phantom Draft Round 1 (updated 9/12)

 

[andleanback]

Brad is a good player, but he is basically a Hannebury, injury plagued players value is not as high as their best footy, because he will struggle to get out on the park, especially heading towards 30, I can't remember, did Sydney get a first rounder for Hannebury?

Pretty sure hannebery requested a trade, he wasn’t a free agent. It’s not like Adelaide are our there saying they want to keep brad, it’s pretty obvious they want him gone and have offered him a contract. So if they get offered end of first round compensation, they turn around and match it when brad can then just choose to stay
,which is what they don’t want.

 

[Thetrader15]

I think there's a big asterisk there, we don't know what the list size/ salary cap cuts are gonna be. If it's a North/ Sydney coming in for Brad (someone with a top 10 pick) I'm guessing they add that 100K regardless, but if its a finalist going for him they might just take the knock

If it's a finalist, then it probably ends up being this year and next year's first which would be likely be in the teens.

The crows would be very happy to keep Brad, have the cap space and are only considering trading him because of the potential for pick 2. Any team who wants him will need to offer more than the Crows. If the magic value is $700k, I'd think the Crows would have an offer of about $600-650 on the table, then if a club wants to get him, they'd need to offer more.

Anything that's less than value x (say pick 10 for arguments sake) would mean the crows sign him up. His preference is to stay, he's said that all along. It's really Adelaide and the media who are driving this. The Crows want pick 2 and the media want to say Adelaide has lost another top player and write some more stories about how bad they are as a club.

 

[Thetrader15]

And if they don’t want to do that? Adelaide keep brad? He ends up in the preseason draft? No club is going to give that to brad to hit the triggers because of his injury history.

I can guarantee that his his injury history is a lot better than Joe Danier who will end up on a similar contract at Sydney.

 

[Thetrader15]

Brad is a good player, but he is basically a Hannebury, injury plagued players value is not as high as their best footy, because he will struggle to get out on the park, especially heading towards 30, I can't remember, did Sydney get a first rounder for Hannebury?

He was different - the saints got him for a second round pick because of the huge salary he was on.

Also check Brad's injury history in the last 4 years. He missed one year with OP, had a broken cheek and now this injury. That's about it.

 

[andleanback]

I can guarantee that his his injury history is a lot better than Joe Danier who will end up on a similar contract at Sydney.

Did I mention daniher? Or compare what he’ll get. I doubt Sydney even want him anymore and if they do it’ll be a massive Clause based contract, where he has to play x amount of games in year 1 or 2 to trigger further years. Adelaide would take 1 pick in the teens and run in a trade, no team is giving up a top 10 or 2 firsts.

 

[Thetrader15]

Did I mention daniher? Or compare what he’ll get. I doubt Sydney even want him anymore and if they do it’ll be a massive Clause based contract, where he has to play x amount of games in year 1 or 2 to trigger further years. Adelaide would take 1 pick in the teens and run in a trade, no team is giving up a top 10 or 2 firsts.

Of course you didn't mention Daniher. I was using that as an example of how his contract potential with Sydney wasn't impacted last year despite not playing for 2 years.

JOM got a great offer from Hawks, reported at 800k.

Alex Keath had an offer reported north of 700k a year despite being 28 and as injury plagued as Crouch.

Tom Rockliff 700k

Plenty of examples of players with decent injury history getting great contract offers.

 

[andleanback]

Of course you didn't mention Daniher. I was using that as an example of how his contract potential with Sydney wasn't impacted last year despite not playing for 2 years.

JOM got a great offer from Hawks, reported at 800k.

Alex Keath had an offer reported north of 700k a year despite being 28 and as injury plagued as Crouch.

Tom Rockliff 700k

Plenty of examples of players with decent injury history getting great contract offers.

Omeara was also 23 when he went to the hawks, and they thought their medical team could get his knee better (and to be honest Gold Coasts medical department was terrible) . I don’t think O’Meara has ever had a soft tissue complaints, or anything other football injuries except for that one incident. Rockliff wouldn’t be classified as injury prone when he went to port, he played over 150 games over an 8 year period, that’s great return. Compare that to crouch’s 90 odd?

 

[briztoon]

If it's a finalist, then it probably ends up being this year and next year's first which would be likely be in the teens.

The crows would be very happy to keep Brad, have the cap space and are only considering trading him because of the potential for pick 2. Any team who wants him will need to offer more than the Crows. If the magic value is $700k, I'd think the Crows would have an offer of about $600-650 on the table, then if a club wants to get him, they'd need to offer more.

Anything that's less than value x (say pick 10 for arguments sake) would mean the crows sign him up. His preference is to stay, he's said that all along. It's really Adelaide and the media who are driving this. The Crows want pick 2 and the media want to say Adelaide has lost another top player and write some more stories about how bad they are as a club.

That’s not all the options open to Brad or a team that wants him.

First of all, Adelaide don’t find out from the AFL what the compensation will be, until after they decide whether to match an offer or not.

Then, Brad doesn’t have to re-sign with Adelaide if they do match the bid.

Brad can nominate for the draft. Not a chance the Crows redraft him with either of their first round picks.

Geelong, with three first round picks, could draft him with the third of their first round picks.

Of course, any team willing to draft Brad in the first round could. St Kilda, Richmond, any of the top 8 teams willing to use their first round pick this year.

So teams do have bargaining power, if Adelaide want to force a trade.

And besides, Brad isn’t worth two first round picks. He’s worth a mid to late first at best.

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Herald Sun: Adelaide could get pick No. 2 as free agency compensation for Crouch if he lands a long-term deal worth more than $650,000 a season at a new club.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...h/news-story/80363936763602c710d27f6da13d89f4

Crouch is not elite, but he should definitely get offers of $650,000+/season which would give the Crows pick 2. The only thing preventing that sought of salary offer will be the COVID-impact on salaries going forward - something that will need to be factored in, when determining free agency compensations.

 

[Crow till I die]

That’s not all the options open to Brad or a team that wants him.

First of all, Adelaide don’t find out from the AFL what the compensation will be, until after they decide whether to match an offer or not.

Then, Brad doesn’t have to re-sign with Adelaide if they do match the bid.

Brad can nominate for the draft. Not a chance the Crows redraft him with either of their first round picks.

Geelong, with three first round picks, could draft him with the third of their first round picks.

Of course, any team willing to draft Brad in the first round could. St Kilda, Richmond, any of the top 8 teams willing to use their first round pick this year.

So teams do have bargaining power, if Adelaide want to force a trade.

And besides, Brad isn’t worth two first round picks. He’s worth a mid to late first at best.

The crows have GWS 1st which may fall before some of the Geelong 1sts - so the crows could use that if they wanted to. The PSD is a no go for Brad as the crows will have pick 1. If he is worth $550K per year - and that is to the crows, teams end up paying a higher price to get a player traditionally as an RFA so an extra $100k per year saves any need to expend draft capital for the purchasing club - particularly a 1st round pick

 

[briztoon]

The crows have GWS 1st which may fall before some of the Geelong 1sts - so the crows could use that if they wanted to. The PSD is a no go for Brad as the crows will have pick 1. If he is worth $550K per year - and that is to the crows, teams end up paying a higher price to get a player traditionally as an RFA so an extra $100k per year saves any need to expend draft capital for the purchasing club - particularly a 1st round pick

I never mentioned the PSD.

Do you really believe the Crows would redraft a player who’s walking out on them in such a scenario?

I know the Crows have GWS’s first.

That’s why I said, not a chance the Crows redraft Brad with either of their first round picks.

 

[Crow till I die]

I never mentioned the PSD.

Do you really believe the Crows would redraft a player who’s walking out on them in such a scenario?

I know the Crows have GWS’s first.

That’s why I said, not a chance the Crows redraft Brad with either of their first round picks.

It would depend on how p155ed off they felt if they thought they were going to get nothing for him and it certainly is a tool they could use in the negotiation process.

I think he will either get the offer that nets the crows band 1 and they let him walk or he will stay because the crows will offer a contract that would get close to the band 1 threshold themselves

Edit. And unless the crows got band 1 compo -pick 2 when as a big supporter of his over the course i would reluctantly let him go, i absolutely want him to stay

 

[Thetrader15]

I never mentioned the PSD.

Do you really believe the Crows would redraft a player who’s walking out on them in such a scenario?

I know the Crows have GWS’s first.

That’s why I said, not a chance the Crows redraft Brad with either of their first round picks.

Does he get to nominate a salary in the ND? I didn't think that was the case

 

[perplexed]

Herald Sun: Adelaide could get pick No. 2 as free agency compensation for Crouch if he lands a long-term deal worth more than $650,000 a season at a new club.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...h/news-story/80363936763602c710d27f6da13d89f4

Crouch is not elite, but he should definitely get offers of $650,000+/season which would give the Crows pick 2. The only thing preventing that sought of salary offer will be the COVID-impact on salaries going forward - something that will need to be factored in, when determining free agency compensations.

Last year $550k for Ellis was only worth band 3. The offer would have to be significantly more than $650k for the crows to be confident of getting band 1.

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Last year $550k for Ellis was only worth band 3. The offer would have to be significantly more than $650k for the crows to be confident of getting band 1.

It seems to be so inconsistent, I remember Brendon Gale not being happy at round-2 compo for Ellis. You could be right re: Crouch.

 

[PMBangers]

K rock Football

Broadcasting every Cats game via FM 95.5, FM 88.0 at the MCG, and krockfootball.live GFNL matches can be heard via krockfootball.live MORE CATS NEWS MORE GFNL NEWS MORE BFNL NEWS MORE GDFNL NEWS MORE…

www.krockfootball.com.au

Some Falcons boys on display in Geelong College v St Josephs College, seems like Fleeton in particular had a good game, whilst a 16 year old Euriah Hollard kicked 4

 

[RedmanWasHere]

K rock Football

Broadcasting every Cats game via FM 95.5, FM 88.0 at the MCG, and krockfootball.live GFNL matches can be heard via krockfootball.live MORE CATS NEWS MORE GFNL NEWS MORE BFNL NEWS MORE GDFNL NEWS MORE…

www.krockfootball.com.au

Some Falcons boys on display in Geelong College v St Josephs College, seems like Fleeton in particular had a good game, whilst a 16 year old Euriah Hollard kicked 4

Hollard sounds like a likely type for 2022.

If he gets drafted, I’ll refer to him as Euriah Heep forever.

 

[Mitchell54]

Could I get an updated position on where you think Downie will be drafted?

It seems he fallen down the order a bit as is often the case with academy linked players as they are much more highly reported on in previous years.

Obviously as Hawthorn fan interested in where he will go so i can project how Hawthorn may manipulate our picks to basically match a bid with a couple 3rd/4th round picks.

 

[PMBangers]

Could I get an updated position on where you think Downie will be drafted?

It seems he fallen down the order a bit as is often the case with academy linked players as they are much more highly reported on in previous years.

Obviously as Hawthorn fan interested in where he will go so i can project how Hawthorn may manipulate our picks to basically match a bid with a couple 3rd/4th round picks.

I still think he's a decent prospect, I moved him down initially due to him not being a great two way runner and seeming very reluctant to get involved in contests on rewatching. I'd be confident bidding on him from 20 onwards personally, probably gets a bid around 30-35 if I had to guess.

 

[philthy05]

Reported offers for these two blokes

Lycett $3m over 5 years band 2
Ellis $3m over 5 years band 3 (this suggests that lycett only just snuck into band 2
Rocky $2.8-$2.9m over 4 band 2 (If memory serves me correctly the afl stated that rocky just missed out on band 1? Unless I’m confused with another player)

that suggests that crouch’s contract would need to be $3.3+ (660k) over 5 years at a minimum to get band 1

or $3m over 4 (750k) Might might just sneak into band 1

a team offering anything over 3 years will put clauses in the last years that will see them not counted.

I don’t think a team overly concerns themselves with whether Adelaide match. They’ll make crouch an offer that is acceptable to them and deal with whether or not they land him.


also while he may be “free“ in terms of trade capital he isn’t “free”. The cost is in cap and list space.

 

[Accepted 04]

Reported offers for these two blokes

Lycett $3m over 5 years band 2
Ellis $3m over 5 years band 3 (this suggests that lycett only just snuck into band 2
Rocky $2.8-$2.9m over 4 band 2 (If memory serves me correctly the afl stated that rocky just missed out on band 1? Unless I’m confused with another player)

that suggests that crouch’s contract would need to be $3.3+ (660k) over 5 years at a minimum to get band 1

or $3m over 4 (750k) Might might just sneak into band 1

a team offering anything over 3 years will put clauses in the last years that will see them not counted.

I don’t think a team overly concerns themselves with whether Adelaide match. They’ll make crouch an offer that is acceptable to them and deal with whether or not they land him.


also while he may be “free“ in terms of trade capital he isn’t “free”. The cost is in cap and list space.

I think the Ellis compo being Band 3, was more to do with Richmond having won 2 out of 3 premierships and the general public/media would have gone insane if Richmond received a 'higher' pick than they deserved.

Sadly the AFL keeps it as a secret sauce so they can bend the compensation to fix their situation. I'm not saying that I disagree with what Richmond received but history shows that the picks given aren't based on any actual contract data

With the Crouch compo, if Adelaide continue to have an awful year and Crouch gets anything close to 700k they will probably give them Band 1. If it's 600k they will get Band 2.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Adelaide will limp to last place, ask for a compensation pick, be knocked back, then get band 1 for Crouch. Nothing surer.

 

[andleanback]

Adelaide will limp to last place, ask for a compensation pick, be knocked back, then get band 1 for Crouch. Nothing surer.

They would be having a laugh asking for a comp pick, playing in a grand final 3 years ago. They’ve blown their list through poor culture and decisions, nothing else.

 

[Golumless]

They would be having a laugh asking for a comp pick, playing in a grand final 3 years ago. They’ve blown their list through poor culture and decisions, nothing else.

Just like every other club who has been at the foot of the table...

I.e. that has absolutely nothing to do with if we get a PP or not. What will is if the AFL judges us if we are that much of a basketcase that we need one to at least to try to get some semblence of competitiveness or not. I suspect we'll do our due diligence (as you may as well ask), and probably get knocked back this year.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Just like every other club who has been at the foot of the table...

I.e. that has absolutely nothing to do with if we get a PP or not. What will is if the AFL judges us if we are that much of a basketcase that we need one to at least to try to get some semblence of competitiveness or not. I suspect we'll do our due diligence (as you may as well ask), and probably get knocked back this year.

Its a disgrace if you even ask. You would have been down the bottom for one year. Do your time down the bottom and work your way back up like everyone else is supposed to do. If, after another 4 years, you're still shit, then you can think about asking for a bit of help