Draft Watcher PMBangers 2020 Draft Thread

[PMBangers]

Updated top 20, few things to go over here so don't @ me just yet

Re watched a bunch a footage and reviewed my notes over the past month or so, as well as some interviews from the youtube channels in previous comments (not relevant to rankings, wanted to mention so I could slide in the fact that O'Driscoll seems like a great bloke). SO I've gotten a better read of the crop than I did before for sure, Zane Trew and Kaine Baldwin are still fairly unknown for me as I just saw a few highlight videos, but what I did see gave me confidence putting them where they are.

I dropped it to a top 20 rather than top 30, far more confident in this top 20 than any top 30 I could've put together, but there's a couple really close to getting into this top 20; Nik Cox, Zach Reid, Bailey Laurie and Zahier Maher all got in at various points during my reshuffling (EDIT: Can't believe I forgot to put Archie Perkins in here, he's another that got in at various points), when I was going to do a top 30 Charlie Byrne, Connor Stone, Brandon Walker and Charlie Lazzaro were all around the mark from 20 on wards as well, just to put some names up that are close.

Logan McDonald is a hard one for me to rank, I really like what he does at his best but find his leading patterns can be a bit awkward at times, whilst it isn't a problem at this level at AFL level I think it will hamper him if he doesn't improve

As per first post Jeffery and Davies don't feature unless they say they'll opt for the open draft, Davies slots somewhere between 10-15, Jeffery 15-25

 

[PMBangers]

Post Round 6 First Round Phantom attempt (abuse tolerated and understood)
Not neccessarily where I rate players but if a draft happened today I don't think this would be too far off. The more I look over this draft the more I like it, think there's a good variation of player types at the top.
Everyone seems to have very different rankings compared to previous years so it made it hard to get a consensus of where players should be approximately

Nik Cox almost went to North Melbourne on basis of needs, but thought best available was the way to go for top 5

Yes I know Zach Reid should be in here, and Essendon almost took him. Also considered Tom Powell, Zavier Maher and Lachlan Jones heavily at certain points but pretty happy with whats come out here overall

This was a great demonstration of how poor my knowledge of playing lists is currently as well.

briztoon you got 1 midfielder, hope thats alright

 

[PMBangers]

End of July Rankings, easily the most difficult rankings I've ever done, feels weird dropping kids from VIC with no footy but felt there's been enough sliding around to warrant an update. I debated the validity of a top 20 with a chunk of the talent pool not playing, from here on I might change how I structure my rankings, maybe exclude Vic Metro kids or do a top 5 for each champs team, will wait and see

Berry, Ford and Macrae all drop out because of lack of exposure, although I don't think it'll be long until Berry returns once Country footy resumes.
Baldwin with his two knee injuries drops him out automatically for me, unsure on how it will effect him in an actual draft.

Some notes on certain players-

Campbell has been doing well for Pennant Hills (although a low quality competition, take from that what you will), showing his class and composure against bigger bodies which was my main query on him. Hitting the scoreboard too whilst playing as a full time mid

McDonald jumps the most, wasn't too shocked with his goal tallies, what I wanted to see was improvement in contested marking and leading which he's done well, not far behind JUH or Thilthorpe now

Trew, O'Driscoll, Bruhn and McInnes were closely rated in my last rankings, two VICs drop for obvious reasons, Trew overtakes O'Driscoll dued to performing better in U19's, pretty surprised O'Driscoll didn't get to start in the 1's

Callow and Davis (as well as Menzie and Walker, but they're not in my top 20) have been performing well in TSL, but again lower standard of Comp so grain of salt. Davis seems to be getting tagged from what I've seen (happy tobe corrected)

Jones and Dumesny have been doing well at senior level, Poulter has been exceptional in the 19s, want to see him get some reserves or 1s games soon before moving him any higher

 

[PMBangers]

Post Round 10, thinking I've got a better understanding of each teams list now so much more confident of these selections. I'll probably go more in depth with what I think clubs should be focusing on later this week.

A few notes: This top 4 is obviously very tall, I doubt that we seethe first 3 open picks being talls around the actual draft, but on needs I'm happy with these selections
Freo move down a pick due to the defecit
Callow came into consideration a lot for Geelong, Richmond and Brisbane, has done some good things in the TSL but I'm starting to think he's due to slide because he's not super flashy or athletic, would still be 'safer' than Baldwin though
Metro guys slide naturally, honestly that top 8 could be in any order imo, that's the spot to be this draft

Other guys I considered at various points: Bailey Laurie, Sam Berry, Tom Powell, Jack Carroll and (bolter in my eyes, loved his TSL form) Pat Walker

 

[PMBangers]

Bit of shifting around, each time I re-watch footage from last year or a new game from this year I like this draft more and more, far more optimistic on it now than I was a few months ago, my next rankings should be up by the end of the week with a different look compared to what I've been doing as I found the top 20 was filtering out vic kids that probably didn't deserve to be knocked out just because they're not playing

Also just realised I didn't knock Freo far enough back for their deficit so their pick would come after Carltons, still think both teams take who I have them taking

 

[PMBangers]

August rankings with my new approach. Think this does well to still highlight VIC kids, top 5 for each of the Champs teams with Davies added.

Jack Carroll and Brandon Walker were close to making that WA top 5 having put in good performances this year and each being nice outside options.

Baldwin I haven't accounted for considering his knee issues, think he fits in as 3rd/4th in there with Jones comfortably overtaking him on this years performances so far, Cook was obviously considered after a good month of footy but Poulters consistency has him just ahead.

This is a good top 5 for the Allies and I'm pretty disappointed we won't see them together, not really any others challenging strongly to get in there.

VIC C and VIC M have minor changes with me rewatching some footage on my off days from Uni, started to really like Cox's kicking and vision especially from what I saw. Perkins was close to overtaking Ford but like Ford's contested game and build a bit more, Bailey Laurie as well was close. Zavier Maher I've liked for a while, him and Berry would've been contesting for a 6th country spot

 

[PMBangers]

I'm generally getting less and less confident with these as I go with watching new footage and re-evaluating what I think a teams needs are. I'll admit as a phantom drafter I do get sucked into going for needs > best available generally and I think it reflects in the phantoms, so this one I've tried to be a bit looser with that.
Some of the weirder ones I'll address tho:
- O'Driscoll was great on the weekend in the midfield for Perths league team, he looks to have been working on his kicking, or at least I feel i'ts improved gradually through the year. Some might say he's similar to what they've got as an inside mid, and to an extent I agree, but overall if they're looking for a midfielder he's probably the best available
- Cox I don't feel is that big of a reach. Gold Coast need a guy thats gonna be able to match up on the 200cm type KPF's going into the future and I think Cox fits that bill better than DGB, they're both around the mark for the Suns pick
-I've been cautious of the Perkins hype personally, but I think it's obvious he's destined to go pretty high, considered him for every team from Essendon
-It was Neale or Baldwin and after reading some of the Brisbane board I think Neale is the better pick for them, as they need a prospect that's a good chance to fill both a KPF and Ruck role, again don't feel it's a massive reach, especially if they only take the two picks.

 

[PMBangers]

Not too many changes to my first round phantom going into the last round of the Home and Away season, as usual have been filling my days off of work/uni with rewatching any footage I can get my hands on. Thinking we'll see more Vic Metro kids go early than expected overall, and the first round I think could go to pick 26 realistically with bids (plus there's FA compo to come)
Leaving Trew out was a big call, but I think there's a lack of need for his type from North onwards, and if there is there's mids that can do it and have a bit more to them, Powell being a good example as a guy who is winning the ball more, and hitting the scoreboard in a similar strength comp.

 

[PMBangers]

Another month or so watching old Vic footage and games for other states, abandoned the top 5 per champs teams as I feel this is just better and easier to read for people.
So many deserving to be in here that it was hard to narrow down; Cook, Perkins, B.Walker, Winder, Western, Laurie, Berry, Davis, P.Walker all considered in that final 5.

My favourites of the month have been Carroll and Ford, Carroll just has exceptional game sense and composure with ball in hand, as a winger at the next level I think he could be a round 1 debutant and seriously make a struggling side look better going forward, especially as he builds more confidence. His contested game is admittedly average which would be the major concern, but with some S&C I'd back that it improves.
Ford has received some more attention recently, was inconsistent in NAB League last year (in a pretty poor side) but I keep going back to that all stars game, hybrid mid with athleticism and forward impact is a big tick and something that historically recruiters love

 

[PMBangers]

Two Round phantom as things stand, I assumed Gold Coast pre-list Davies, Jefferey and Lake, as well as assuming all clubs have the available list spotsfor the purpose of the phantom. For bids that were being matched with picks that wouldn't have been used in my phantom I just marked it with a '-' to try and make it as easy to follow as possible.

Overall tried to hit what I think club needs are, and if there weren't any glaring needs I selected what I view/ assume as the consensus best available. Feels weird having guys like Trew, Maher, Baldwin and Berry late second round but when I lay it out it doesn't seem totally out of question. I'm also surprised that the first two rounds ended up only lasting an extra two picks despite the 'compromised' nature of this draft, although for guys like Luke Edwards, James Borlase, Maurice Rioli Jnr, etc. I wouldn't be shocked to seem them bid on within the first two rounds on draft night, also hard to tell what weight recruiters are going to be putting on QAFL performances, but with the FA moves of Corr, Atkins and Williams already being confirmed to be happening, then the other players rumoured to move, there could easily be 5-7 compensation picks thrown in here

 

[PMBangers]

Post finals two round phantom, I have no idea how accurate any of this will be. It's weird that as the year has gone on I've become less confident with what I'm putting out in general, trying to predict how many and which vic kids will slide is ridiculous and can be highlighted byt the varying rankings of a guy like Eddie Ford (although I'm pretty sure I've got him higher than anyone else) some have him around 20, some around 30, some not even top 40, this is causing me to go back through footage and try and see what I'm missing but I end up liking him more. In a similar sense I've been trying to find what's so likeable about Archie Perkins, I think he's got great characteristics but don't see him as any more consistent than Ford, ah well. I like to think I half got these picks based on needs and best available, with FA compo it'll be interesting to see how it changes things.

 

[PMBangers]

PMB's Top 60

So this'll be my final rankings release for the year, pretty happy with it overall and not a whole heap of guys missed out that I felt could be realistically pushing in (guys like Borlase, Newchurch, Clarke, Cardillo and Josh Green being the main ones). It's going to be an interesting draft, there's around 10 in here that I don't think will get drafted but on performance I think should.




within the ranges of 10's there was a lot of flip a coin calls, especially that 20-40 region there's some that I have towards the bottom of that range I wouldn't be surprised to see at the top of that range for other watchers. I'm pretty optimistic about this draft, I think a lot of these guys could become those 20-30 on the list types even towards the bottom of my rankings. Heights and Weights should all be correct, maybe 1 cm or kg out here and there