Draft Expert PMBangers' 2021 Draft Board - Come for the R1 phantom (post #1591), stay for the Simpsons references

[PMBangers]

Boy oh boy wow wee.

If we went Long over Goater...

You should know Brisbane almost always pick mates. If we went Ned Long, and we need a hbf’er with speed and who can kick, Darcy Wilmot would be an obvious choice.

Still, I can’t get past Sam Banks being a Brisbane type player.

I don't have Wilmot quite as high as eDPS just yet, but Banks is one I did consider and has cycled through there at points, same with Rayson as a HBF need

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Interested if you have any thoughts on where Edwards, Moyle and Callow would sit (if at all) on your draft board?

 

[PMBangers]

Interested if you have any thoughts on where Edwards, Moyle and Callow would sit (if at all) on your draft board?

Edwards would be sitting top 15, likely just inside the top 10, I think if he were in the National draft he'd be seen as one of the best 2 or 3 talls available, just has some crazy mobility and cleanliness below his knees for a guy of his height I still can't get over some of the clean one grab pick ups I've seen him do on the run, it'd be impressive for a 187 cm mid let alone a 200cm+ ruck/ forward.
Moyle is a weird one, he's a good tap ruckman, but I'm not seeing a massive impact around the ground outside of that, the only game I can think of where he looked like he could legitimately impact in a resting forward spot was Pies VFL v Suns VFL, and the Suns KPD stocks weren't flash, he'd be more a third or fourth rounder if I was to take him.
Callow I'm not convinced gets picked up, even in the MSD, the lack of athleticism is concerning for me and one-on-one grappling ability at AFL level rarely comes in to play with how often teams zone and try to outnumber in the defensive 50. As a KPD he could make it, but I'd want to see him play that role in the SANFL before committing to him any earlier than late in the second round

 

[flipper83]

View attachment 1137450
Another week another below par first round phantom attempt. My rankings are constantly changing as I review notes/ see more footage or games, and it's reflecting in these phantoms some what. I must admit I was initially planning to do my top 40 rankings update at some stage this week, but I want a couple more weeks of games before putting it out because there are some really dramatic changes to it.

Anyway, more of this, a few noteworthy selections:

I have Rachele rated in my top 10 and he was in consideration for Carlton as well, but I rate Sinn that smidgeon higher. He'd be a Richmond consideration as well, but aiming for this to be somewhat realistic I don't think he's quite the Richmond sort of Small Forward.

JVR I'm pretty sure will slide to a late first/ early second selection come actual draft night, but on a needs basis I have him going to Richmond here, I also considered a Sam Darcy bid here, but happier with a JVR selection atm.

I was tossing up between Sinn and Callaghan going to Carlton and the other to Essendon, from this year I've like Callaghan a lot more but given prior form Sinn retains the spot above in a phantom draft sense, I'm waiting to see the two of them + Chesser back in the Sandy midfield to see how they balance it out, if Callaghan gets forced back to the wing I'd be disappointed given he looks better on the inside than either imo

The last two picks I kept tossing up between Hobbs, Draper, Murley, Howes, Andrews, MacDonald, Banks, Rayson, Browne. I reckon that 20-30 region is fairly even at this stage, so it'll be an interesting point at the champs to see if they can create some separation between each other

Appreciate all the work you put in to your thread. Just wondering where you would personally rank Sam Darcy. Do you think the recent hype is warranted?

 

[PMBangers]

Appreciate all the work you put in to your thread. Just wondering where you would personally rank Sam Darcy. Do you think the recent hype is warranted?

I CLAIMED HIM FIRST!

I've been a big fan ever since his first game in NAB League this year and he's around the 20 region for me, I don't watch school footy so I'd feel weird putting him any higher just on the stats and others reports, but given his skills, traits and height it doesn't shock me that he's drawing extra attention, where he plays at Champs will give us a good indication of where he's seen as playing his best given he's played Ruck, KPD and KPF early on

 

[briztoon]

You complain about these all the time, happy I don’t do them anymore

It’s my bit of “fun”.

 

[GWS Goose]

In my limited viewing you seem to have Chesser higher than most and consistently linked to the Giants, what is the thought process here.
Personally I d love Sonsie with the Pies pick.
That said I m also basing this on a bunch of other people's opinions rather than any actual knowledge.

 

[PMBangers]

In my limited viewing you seem to have Chesser higher than most and consistently linked to the Giants, what is the thought process here.
Personally I d love Sonsie with the Pies pick.
That said I m also basing this on a bunch of other people's opinions rather than any actual knowledge.

I think Chesser ticks most boxes well overall, without being outstandingly athletic he has enough tricks and knowledge to get himself out of tricky spots. Very neat skills, doesn't try to punt the leather off it but gets the penetration required, handballs, marks, collects it well.
The two standout traits though for me are 1) doesn't try to do too much with it, I think a lot of the other top end mids can get caught up with that at times, but Chesser is very inclined to take the first good option rather than try to sidestep around others to hold it for 2 extra seconds, and 2) his work in transition both ways, he's just switched on constantly and offers himself as a threat pretty much all the time

 

[THE_GUN]

.

JVR I'm pretty sure will slide to a late first/ early second selection come actual draft night, but on a needs basis I have him going to Richmond here, I also considered a Sam Darcy bid here, but happier with a JVR selection atm.

With that in mind and Richmond having 2 picks in the mid - late 1st round wouldnt it of made more sense for Richmond to take Bazzo/Rachalle/Erasmus/Long at the first pick then JVR with the later pick

 

[PMBangers]

With that in mind and Richmond having 2 picks in the mid - late 1st round wouldnt it of made more sense for Richmond to take Bazzo/Rachalle/Erasmus/Long at the first pick then JVR with the later pick

Erasmus and Long would make sense, Bazzo would be a bit too early for mine and again, Rachele hasn't really nailed down the defensive/ pressure side if his game which would, imo, put Richmond off

 

[PMBangers]

Fortunate enough to be in Queensland atm and got to watch Lions v Suns academy games live (Well, last quarter of the 17s). Saxon Crozier would be a decent shot at getting drafted I'd say, played almost exclusively on the inside and racked up a game high 34, used it the best if all players out there as well. Briskey was also impressive, given his height and athleticism, plus the fact he's clearly had interest in the past with his time at the Pies. Bella was just way too big for anyone on field, but is also decent below his knees and on the lead, didn't play much ruck which I thought was interesting. Pescud + Reeves were major ball winners, Pescud that bit more damaging with his kicking but Reeves was much stronger on the inside, moves the ball quickly via hand. Haven't heard of interest for the MSD in any of them, but they're all guys that I reckon would be worth a look late ND

 

[Supersuns]

Fortunate enough to be in Queensland atm and got to watch Lions v Suns academy games live (Well, last quarter of the 17s). Saxon Crozier would be a decent shot at getting drafted I'd say, played almost exclusively on the inside and racked up a game high 34, used it the best if all players out there as well. Briskey was also impressive, given his height and athleticism, plus the fact he's clearly had interest in the past with his time at the Pies. Bella was just way too big for anyone on field, but is also decent below his knees and on the lead, didn't play much ruck which I thought was interesting. Pescud + Reeves were major ball winners, Pescud that bit more damaging with his kicking but Reeves was much stronger on the inside, moves the ball quickly via hand. Haven't heard of interest for the MSD in any of them, but they're all guys that I reckon would be worth a look late ND

Bella is a big lump of a kid and have been impressed with his leading patterns in the VFL games I've watched. Hope we bring him on, we need KPP talent

 

[Giant Strides]

Bella is a big lump of a kid and have been impressed with his leading patterns in the VFL games I've watched. Hope we bring him on, we need KPP talent

Son of the great Marty Bella, Queensland State of Origin star, I believe. No wonder he's a big boy then!

 

[PMBangers]

Son of the great Marty Bella, Queensland State of Origin star, I believe. No wonder he's a big boy then!

Brother of Gold Coast ruck Lauren as well, decent Queensland sporting family it's fair to say

 

[Chaisa]

Son of the great Marty Bella, Queensland State of Origin star, I believe. No wonder he's a big boy then!

The second rugby league family to have a surname that is generally a first name have kids defect to AFL.

 

[PMBangers]

SO here's my top 40, as usual pretty happy to answer questions, I know a lot of this is seemingly reactionary as well, but given the small amount of football in VIC this year it was somewhat bound to happen. I've prepared for some of the inevitable questions so here's a quick FAQ before you have to ask:

FAQ:

Q. Why do you have Matthew Roberts lower than most other draft watchers?
A. I have my queries over Roberts, he's undoubtedly a good prospect and I wouldn't be surprised if he went Top 5 or if someone had him as high as Number 3 on their rankings, but I think he lacks a certain element of burst speed and class by foot, especially to longer targets, than some of those higher than him.

Q. Why do you not have any 19-year-old or mature aged prospects, do you not rate them?
A. It's not quite that simple, in short I'm just lazy. The long answer is that I don't watch enough state league football to really take those older guys into consideration, I don't particularly see the value of watching VFL/SANFL/WAFL seniors if there's not an 18/19 year old I rate highly playing. I also think that with the MSD it makes weird given those guys might not be there in the ND, and the ND is my main focus

That concludes the FAQ. But on a more serious note, I do watch a lot more VIC than any other state given I live here, so odds are I'm severely under rating a few SA and definitely a few more WA kids due to lack of exposure and how much harder it is to rate impact of guys from a standard camera angle, than behind the goals or live in person. There were a few interstate guys I considered for the last couple of spots, but they're certainly guys I wanna see at the champs (if it happens, fingers crossed) before setting it in concrete. Of the 19-year-olds I expect to go in the MSD, Jacob Edwards is probably the only one I'd have in, Moyle, Heath, Raak are 3 others that'd be close if they weren't in, but not certainties

 

[weltschmerz]

If Miller Bergman gets drafted I don't foresee a single week where he's not mixed up with Miles.

 

[footytragic01]

Recent article from Adelaidenow.

Stagg and Dnistriansky carving it up in SA U18's.

Here is the article

"Explosive Glenelg midfielder Hugh Stagg has made another big statement at under-18 level, a week after his best-on-ground performance against the Panthers.

The 18-year-old, who captained Immanuel College’s first XVIII side last year, almost got his side over the line with another dominant performance, finishing with 30 disposals, 18 contested possessions, eight inside-50s, 3.3 and a huge 187 Champion Data ranking points in the four-point loss to West Adelaide.

Stagg’s showing on Saturday followed his 32-disposal, three-goal, 175-ranking point display in Round 7.

The 179cm on-baller’s ability to not only win the ball, but break away from the contest with it, and also get forward and hit the scoreboard is drawing a lot of attention.

And, after 63 disposals and six goals in the past two matches, his stocks are rising fast.

Stagg has moved into 12th spot in the SANFL under-18 SuperRankings and joining in him in the climb is Norwood defender Matthew Dnistriansky.

Amid an Eagles attacking onslaught, the neat-kicking defender stood tall - not for the first time this season - to be one of his side’s best in the 50-point loss.

Dnistriansky, who ranks elite for disposals, kicking efficiency and intercept marks this year, finished with 36 disposals, eight rebound-50s, eight intercepts and 178 ranking points - his third tally of more than 170 in 2021.

SANFL Under-18 Super Rankings - Round 8
*Minimum 3 games
1. Matty Roberts (South), Mid, 3 games, 201 points
2. Hugh Jackson (North), Mid, 8 games, 142 points
3. Kobe Ryan (West), Mid, 4 games, 136 points
4. Arlo Draper (South), Mid, 7 games, 134 points
5. Matthew Dnistriansky (Norwood), Def, 8 games, 134 points
6. Lewis Rayson (Glenelg), Mid, 6 games, 131 points
7. Blayne O’Loughlin (North), Def, 5 games, 131 points
8. Benjamin Ridgway (Glenelg), Mid, 3 games, 128 points
9. Isaiah Dudley (Central), Mid, 8 games, 128 points
10. Cade Kennedy (West), Mid, 8 games, 127 points"

 

[Smythe]

my boy Stagg

 

[Virgin Dog]

I think Chesser ticks most boxes well overall, without being outstandingly athletic he has enough tricks and knowledge to get himself out of tricky spots. Very neat skills, doesn't try to punt the leather off it but gets the penetration required, handballs, marks, collects it well.
The two standout traits though for me are 1) doesn't try to do too much with it, I think a lot of the other top end mids can get caught up with that at times, but Chesser is very inclined to take the first good option rather than try to sidestep around others to hold it for 2 extra seconds, and 2) his work in transition both ways, he's just switched on constantly and offers himself as a threat pretty much all the time

While I'm not suggesting this is the case, does this not simply read as Chesser lacking a point of difference, or even being relatively vanilla? I guess what I'm asking is, what is the club who drafts him likely to be picking him for?

 

[PMBangers]

While I'm not suggesting this is the case, does this not simply read as Chesser lacking a point of difference, or even being relatively vanilla? I guess what I'm asking is, what is the club who drafts him likely to be picking him for?

His disposal and balance around contests is top notch, and as mentioned that workrate and danger in transition I've liked as arguably the best of the top enders, bar Horne, it's his athleticism that you might say doesn't have a POD about it, but that's because it's all above average-very good rather just being average across the board.

 

[Virgin Dog]

His disposal and balance around contests is top notch, and as mentioned that workrate and danger in transition I've liked as arguably the best of the top enders, bar Horne, it's his athleticism that you might say doesn't have a POD about it, but that's because it's all above average-very good rather just being average across the board.

Athleticism is not really a trait I particularly rate for midfielders anyway, so that's not a concern for me. I'm more interested in composure in traffic, decision making and kicking (doesn't need to be elite, but if it's poor then they need to be absolutely elite in another area). Any particular player you would compare him to?

 

[PMBangers]

Athleticism is not really a trait I particularly rate for midfielders anyway, so that's not a concern for me. I'm more interested in composure in traffic, decision making and kicking (doesn't need to be elite, but if it's poor then they need to be absolutely elite in another area). Any particular player you would compare him to?

I'm not huge on comparisons, but those 3 things you're looking for he's shown he's one of the better few in the NAB League early on, with his composure being a big draw for me.

 

[rei154]

View attachment 1143347

SO here's my top 40, as usual pretty happy to answer questions, I know a lot of this is seemingly reactionary as well, but given the small amount of football in VIC this year it was somewhat bound to happen. I've prepared for some of the inevitable questions so here's a quick FAQ before you have to ask:

FAQ:

Q. Why do you have Matthew Roberts lower than most other draft watchers?
A. I have my queries over Roberts, he's undoubtedly a good prospect and I wouldn't be surprised if he went Top 5 or if someone had him as high as Number 3 on their rankings, but I think he lacks a certain element of burst speed and class by foot, especially to longer targets, than some of those higher than him.

Q. Why do you not have any 19-year-old or mature aged prospects, do you not rate them?
A. It's not quite that simple, in short I'm just lazy. The long answer is that I don't watch enough state league football to really take those older guys into consideration, I don't particularly see the value of watching VFL/SANFL/WAFL seniors if there's not an 18/19 year old I rate highly playing. I also think that with the MSD it makes weird given those guys might not be there in the ND, and the ND is my main focus

That concludes the FAQ. But on a more serious note, I do watch a lot more VIC than any other state given I live here, so odds are I'm severely under rating a few SA and definitely a few more WA kids due to lack of exposure and how much harder it is to rate impact of guys from a standard camera angle, than behind the goals or live in person. There were a few interstate guys I considered for the last couple of spots, but they're certainly guys I wanna see at the champs (if it happens, fingers crossed) before setting it in concrete. Of the 19-year-olds I expect to go in the MSD, Jacob Edwards is probably the only one I'd have in, Moyle, Heath, Raak are 3 others that'd be close if they weren't in, but not certainties

Curious for your take on Erasmus?
From what I've read I quite like the sound of him, but it seems like he's unlikely to be around at our (current) second pick.

 

[PMBangers]

Curious for your take on Erasmus?
From what I've read I quite like the sound of him, but it seems like he's unlikely to be around at our (current) second pick.

My exposure to Erasmus is fairly limited given lack of WA footage available to public, but from what I've seen he's a fairly agile midfielder with good stoppage craft and skills, as well as being one of those taller midfielders that's very good above head. As forward his leading patterns are impressive, obviously with that marking above his head being a strength he can play as a key despite his height, but that's at WAFL U19's level so not necessarily accurate to the next level.