Draft Expert PMBangers 2023 Draft Thread

[Sniffy Jenkins]

So in anticipation of this I'm supposed to guess who they'll trade it to, and what the trade will consist of?

Everyones phantom drafts are going to be skewed until that Suns Pick 4 is decided as well as the Riley Sanders debate and Ben McKay Compo pick.

Clubs will definitely try and jump at pick 4 and overpay for it and Suns are keen to trade it. The top 10 is good but the rest looks shallow. Melbourne were aggressive last year trying to get into the top 10 and I reckon they will try again this year. Its a grab now pay later approach.

This is why Cal Twomey wont bother with a Mock draft until days before the draft. There are too many scenarios at play leading up.

 

[PMBangers]

Everyones phantom drafts are going to be skewed until that Suns Pick 4 is decided as well as the Riley Sanders debate and Ben McKay Compo pick.

Clubs will definitely try and jump at pick 4 and overpay for it and Suns are keen to trade it. The top 10 is good but the rest looks shallow. Melbourne were aggressive last year trying to get into the top 10 and I reckon they will try again this year. Its a grab now pay later approach.

This is why Cal Twomey wont bother with a Mock draft until days before the draft. There are too many scenarios at play leading up.

You're not forced to read these, I put them out merely to give an idea of what prospects I expect to be available in each range

 

[Giant Strides]

So in anticipation of this I'm supposed to guess who they'll trade it to, and what the trade will consist of?

Aren't you clairvoyant? What's the point of doing this if you aren't? Sheesh.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Walter should get called out at pick 2 and thats worth 2517 points.

With a 20% discount = 2003 points.

 

[PMBangers]

Aren't you clairvoyant? What's the point of doing this if you aren't? Sheesh.

A sense of entitlement and importance during the off season is the only reason anyone does this

 

[News_Hound]

Just curious with finals around the corner and lads not playing because their club didn't qualify does this hinder the chances of getting drafted? or most club made up their mind and waiting for combine results?

Moir will get picked up but could he be a bargin the more he slides

 

[flipper83]

Except Gold coast will likely be trading out their pick 4 to accumulate more draft points to match bids. Everyone after pick 4 will be bumped down the order again unfortunately on top of Suns matching for Walter at likely pick 2. Thats whats being reported.

Suns don't want to go into draft deficit because they didn't have the points to match all Walter, Read and Rogers. Suns have war chest of 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to help them match points. They have been strategically planning for this for past couple years.

Walter should get called out at pick 2 and thats worth 2517 points.

Melbourne and Sydney are the two best positioned clubs to move into pick 4 with later 1st round selections and early picks in 2nd round picks to get suns anything above 2034 points that Pick 4 is worth. Melbourne could have picks 4 and 5 this draft, bit scary for the comp.

Suns will dangle the pick 4 carrot and get more points in return. They dont need pick 4. They need points.

Gold coast already have 9 picks worth points. Turning pick 4 into another 3 or 4 points would mean they need over 10 list spots free going into the draft to be able to use all of the points.
They'll have to do a lot of creative trading to maximise their points but not have more picks than they can use.

 

[flipper83]

Those pesky suns and their gifts for being massively successful, how dare they get these gun young players after all the finals and premierships they have won.

They can always get their NGA players to say they don't want to move state.

 

[PMBangers]

Just curious with finals around the corner and lads not playing because their club didn't qualify does this hinder the chances of getting drafted? or most club made up their mind and waiting for combine results?

Moir will get picked up but could he be a bargin the more he slides

For the top end prospects it won't have much of an impact, but finals does present an opportunity for some of those on the fringes of selection to push themselves further up in the draft frame. For the most part though clubs will have a pretty settled draft board in terms of the names featured, from here it'll be more about settling the order of that through these late season performances and possibly the combine

 

[TDS7]

So in anticipation of this I'm supposed to guess who they'll trade it to, and what the trade will consist of?

Just assume Hawthorn get it. It's what I've been doing.

 

[Sniffy Jenkins]

You're not forced to read these, I put them out merely to give an idea of what prospects I expect to be available in each range

I thought I was just adding to some discussion about Gold Coast Suns pick 4 potentially being traded and how that could shape the top 10 lol.... ....sheesh

 

[PMBangers]

Just assume Hawthorn get it. It's what I've been doing.

Doesn't fit with my narrative of GWS getting it, sorry fam

 

[PMBangers]

I thought I was just adding to some discussion about Gold Coast Suns pick 4 potentially being traded and how that could shape the top 10 lol.... ....sheesh

Oh no doubt, it's just not really worth considering for a Phantom which isn't aiming to be super accurate in comparison to what happens in November. I also much prefer the draft board be a place for discussion of draft prospects personally, leave the hypothetical trades and discussion to the main trade board I say, such a hostile place.

Club Focus - Gold Coast SUNS 2023

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here. Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[TDS7]

Doesn't fit with my narrative of GWS getting it, sorry fam

How about we split it, you get Watson on Weekdays, we get him on Weekends?

 

[eth-dog]

Is Freijah more inside or outside mid?

 

[PMBangers]

How about we split it, you get Watson on Weekdays, we get him on Weekends?

You can have Watson full time and we'll take Duursma or McKercher full time

 

[PMBangers]

Is Freijah more inside or outside mid?

Far more outside than inside, all his best midfield performances have come from a wing where he can really use his strengths. He might be able to make the move inside in time, but I find his efficiency significantly drops when he's given the task of winning it at the coal face. Although his general evasiveness and ability to keep his hands free when being tackled do allow him to remain impactful

 

[Giant Strides]

How about we split it, you get Watson on Weekdays, we get him on Weekends?

Guess GWS is playing a lot of Thursday & Friday games for the next 15 years, then.

 

[Sniffy Jenkins]

Gold coast already have 9 picks worth points. Turning pick 4 into another 3 or 4 points would mean they need over 10 list spots free going into the draft to be able to use all of the points.
They'll have to do a lot of creative trading to maximise their points but not have more picks than they can use.

Is that the rule regarding list spots if you have 9 picks you need 9 free list spots available going into draft, even the whole world knows the Suns are not taking 9 players? Im not sure but clubs delist and re-list the same player willy nilly these days plus Suns can pass on any leftover later picks or live trade them. They have options

 

[Giant Strides]

Is that the rule regarding list spots if you have 9 picks you need 9 free list spots available going into draft, even the whole world knows the Suns are not taking 9 players? Im not sure but clubs delist and re-list the same player willy nilly these days plus Suns can pass on any leftover later picks or live trade them. They have options

Yes & yes: clubs can delist and then later rookie players to "free up" draft spots. However, there's a risk to doing so: see "Hugh Greenwood".

The point is, all the posters offering a multitude of later picks for the Suns' #4 pick aren't necesarily wrong, but those sorts of trades will happen on the night when the rule about list spots seems to be discarded. A pre-draft trade that Suns might do, would be a (smallish) slide down the first round draft order, if they received a future pick as well. That would not change the number of picks that held (hence no pressure on list spots), would still be tradeable on draft night, and nets them something extra for next year (where they have more academy picks).

An example might be (not saying this is likely!) Bulldogs trading their #10 this year plus their future first round pick for Suns' #4. (Worst case, Dogs win the flag, that's 2380 points for 2034 points, i.e. +350 for Suns. Of course, Dogs could also sell their #17 so it doesn't get eaten up by a Croft bid; a team such as Melbourne or Lions would likely be happy to trade their future first rounder to them, which could be around the same point of the draft. Win, win, win.) On the night, Suns could then (before a Walter bid) trade #10 to (for example, again, not saying this is likely) Sydney Swans for their #22, #30 & #41 (get 1886 points from 1395 pts, which is +491 points & just 148 points less than what #4 was to start with!). Again, mutual win.

PMBangers point is that there are so many machinations it's not worth his while to construct a trade in order to do a mock draft: for the moment, just assume that Suns' #4 pick gets used on a Walter bid. A McKay PP, trades involving NM & WCE, Sanders being made "available" to NM will all screw the order up anyway.

 

[anotherletdown]

Except Gold coast will likely be trading out their pick 4 to accumulate more draft points to match bids. Everyone after pick 4 will be bumped down the order again unfortunately on top of Suns matching for Walter at likely pick 2. Thats whats being reported.

Suns don't want to go into draft deficit because they didn't have the points to match all Walter, Read and Rogers. Suns have war chest of 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to help them match points. They have been strategically planning for this for past couple years.

Walter should get called out at pick 2 and thats worth 2517 points.

Melbourne and Sydney are the two best positioned clubs to move into pick 4 with later 1st round selections and early picks in 2nd round picks to get suns anything above 2034 points that Pick 4 is worth. Melbourne could have picks 4 and 5 this draft, bit scary for the comp.

Suns will dangle the pick 4 carrot and get more points in return. They dont need pick 4. They need points.

I'd love to see them throw chips in and trade 4 up to 1. Pick 4 plus Hollands, Sharpe, Flanders... take your pick. They need to open up list spots and they can rely on academy prospects next year if the deficit is brutal

If the Vic media is already up in arms, why not trigger the full scale meltdown.

 

[TheGrizz]

Far more outside than inside, all his best midfield performances have come from a wing where he can really use his strengths. He might be able to make the move inside in time, but I find his efficiency significantly drops when he's given the task of winning it at the coal face. Although his general evasiveness and ability to keep his hands free when being tackled do allow him to remain impactful

What's his marking ability like? Particularly contested marking?

One of our (many) big issues is our lack of marking power between the arcs. A 191cm wingman who can run and provide an outlet sounds like good pick with our 2nd.

 

[PMBangers]

What's his marking ability like? Particularly contested marking?

One of our (many) big issues is our lack of marking power between the arcs. A 191cm wingman who can run and provide an outlet sounds like good pick with our 2nd.

I definitely wouldn't consider him an overly strong contested mark but he's reliable overhead otherwise, reads the ball well out F50 especially to help intercept and send it back in quickly

 

[BaliDemon]

PMBangers what’s your extended take on Ollie Murphy. If the Dees retain pick 15 he would certainly fill a long term need for us with May 32yo, Lever now 28yo. Would love Conor O’Sullivan but this kid appears the next KPD cab off the rank?

 

[PMBangers]

PMBangers what’s your extended take on Ollie Murphy. If the Dees retain pick 15 he would certainly fill a long term need for us with May 32yo, Lever now 28yo. Would love Conor O’Sullivan but this kid appears the next KPD cab off the rank?

Murphy's shown some really positive development as a KPD given he's new to the role this year. He's still raw in the role and can be prone to some mistakes, but his aerial prowess is an absolute strength; attacks the ball aggressively in the air, fights for front position and is surprisingly physical for his lack of muscle, all that and he uses the ball well, albeit he does often stick to 'safe' ball use.

I think he'll need some more time to develop some of his defensive craft for the top level, just basic stuff like being more switched on for quick transition further afield, knowing when to zone off and when to lockdown, etc. but the building blocks are definitely there