Draft Expert PMBangers 2023 Draft Thread

[PMBangers]

Will Brown & Will Dawson, late picks or rookies?
I would love the Saints to have C.O'Sullivan or Ollie Murphy available at our picks 1 & 2, but doubtful.
With Owens & Phillipou possibly becoming midfielder's, starting to like Tholstrup, in our set-up, but go home factor is always the worry.
With Hill & Wood nearing the end, Windsor or Wilson could be astute pick-ups.
H.DeMattia & C.Edwards, chances as burst inside mid. needs.
Did C.Edwards test at the combine?, didn't see any results of his

Dawson I think is worth it in the 25-35 range, really late birthday with his aerial prowess clubs will be excited about how much further he could develop at either end. Ideally I think he'll be developed as a one-on-one defender to pair with a strong interceptor, similar to how Jack Payne plays with Harris Andrews.

No go home worry with Tholstrup at all, coming from rural WA he's been travelling a lot for his footy so will probably just enjoy the opportunity to be settled close to a club.

Edwards did test but not very well, his 20m sprint was particularly eyebrow raising given it was pretty close to George Stevens and Cooper Simpson, just goes to show you can play with speed but test slow

 

[PMBangers]

40 WHOLE players for what will likely be the last rankings update of the year, wowee!

I've gone back and watched a * tonne of footy the last 4 weeks for the RMC draft profiles, that are currently being uploaded to RMC daily so do make sure to check in (all the good ones are the ones I've done) for an in depth analysis of some of your favourite prospects! I'm pretty happy with where most of the players sit, the tiers have made themselves pretty obvious through the rewatchings, most of the difficulty came from actually ordering within them, so I'll go into depth here about the posts. Of course feel free to ask questions, make comments, leave admirations, etc. in response to this

Tier 1; Harley Reid, Jed Walter (Gold Coast)
Not much needs to be said, Reid is arguably the best junior prospect we've seen in a long time with a very well rounded game, if he can get his endurance to the standard of a full time AFL midfielder it'll be ******* scary regardless of where he ends up. Walter follows that high bar up by being one of the best and well rounded KPF prospects we've seen in a long time, there's not much he doesn't do offensively that guys like JUH, Kingx2, etc. did do, but Walter wipes the floor with them in regards to his defensive game. For a Ceiling description, I could see these two being the best player in the competition at some stage in their careers if all goes well

Tier 2; Colby McKercher, Ethan Read (Gold Coast), Zane Duursma, Daniel Curtin, Ryley Sanders (North Melbourne after 40), Connor O'Sullivan, Nick Watson, Nate Caddy
Pretty even group with a bunch of different strengths associated with all these guys and, in my view, very little bust potential, and the fact that a guy like Sanders is in discussion for Pick 5 and also the back end of this group pretty well highlights the evenness of it, although I did consider doing a Tier 2 (A) with the first 4 and a Tier 2 (B) with the latter 4, just because I see them all as having similar ceilings but do feel there's a slightly higher bust risk with Sanders, O'Sullivan, Watson and Caddy.
Ceiling Description; Multiple AA's/ Top 5 players on a list if all goes well

Tier 3; Darcy Wilson, James Leake, Caleb Windsor, Jake Rogers (Gold Coast), Ollie Murphy, Jordan Croft (Western Bulldogs), Mitchell Edwards (Fremantle after 40), Riley Hardeman, Harry DeMattia, Koltyn Tholstrup, Archie Roberts, Will Graham (Gold Coast), Luamon Lual (Western Bulldogs after 40), Will McCabe (Hawthorn), Lance Collard (West Coast after 40), Tew Jiath (Hawthorn after 40)
A lot of names in this tier and similar to Tier 2 I could've split it into Tier 3 A) with the guys placed 11-18 and Tier 3 (B) with the rest for the same reason.
Ceiling Description; AA selection/ Multiple AA Squad of 40's/ Top 10 players on a list

Tier 4; Will Green, Charlie Edwards, Angus Hastie, Taylor Goad, Harvey Johnston, Joel Freijah, Phoenix Gothard, Archer Reid, Zane Zakotelsky, Wil Dawson
Smaller tier than previous, but this is essentially the last of the group of players in this years crop that I think would be genuine National Draft contenders in most draft years, which pretty much sums up how I view the draft and why I think there's so many teams avoiding completely trading out of the top 35, and actively looking to get into the top 15, Green and Goad I still think end up pretty good Number 1 Rucks at AFL level though, which will present some value if they slip into the mid to late 30's/ rookie.
Ceiling Description; Top 15 players on a list

Tier 5; Koen Sanchez, Arie Schoenmaker, Billy Wilson, Lachlan Charleson, Oscar Ryan, Caiden Cleary (Sydney), Clay Hall, Jack Delean, Will Patton, Ashton Moir, Logan Morris, Kynan Brown (Melbourne), Vigo Visentini, Tarkyn O'Leary, Kade De La Rue, Geordie Payne, Jack Callinan, Ry Cantwell, Cooper Simpson
Weird tier to explain but I'll try so bear with me. There are some players in this tier like Moir, Sanchez, Wilson and Schoenmaker that I think have a ceiling that warrants being in tier 3, but have a lot more work to do to get there than the others in higher tiers so the risk wouldn't be worth it to me, and the rest are similar in the sense that I think they're all capable of becoming best 22 regulars or role players, but the potential to be in AA conversations or real difference makers each week just isn't there in my eyes, and if I'm being harsh a good chunk of this tier would be rookie's at best in stronger drafts.
Ceiling Description; Best 23 Player

 

[PMBangers]

Also whilst I'm likely to get a few eyes in here for this, all AFL National Draft Combine Invitees heights and weights have been updated rookiemecentral ( - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central) ) so you can get updated measurements to argue whether or Nick Watson is TOO small or if Nate Caddy has the appropiate dimensions to play as a key forward!

 

[TDS7]

Also whilst I'm likely to get a few eyes in here for this, all AFL National Draft Combine Invitees heights and weights have been updated rookiemecentral ( - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central) ) so you can get updated measurements to argue whether or Nick Watson is TOO small or if Nate Caddy has the appropiate dimensions to play as a key forward!

Were players like Watson, Reid, and McCabe measured at the combine given their injuries?

Also interesting to see Curtin and O'Sullivan so close in measurements, Curtin always seemed a step smaller.

 

[PMBangers]

Were players like Watson, Reid, and McCabe measured at the combine given their injuries?

Also interesting to see Curtin and O'Sullivan so close in measurements, Curtin always seemed a step smaller.

Yep all attendees were measured regardless of participation, Reid grew a couple of cm's and McCabe added about 6 kg from pre season

 

[Footy Heads]

View attachment 1831923
40 WHOLE players for what will likely be the last rankings update of the year, wowee!

I've gone back and watched a * tonne of footy the last 4 weeks for the RMC draft profiles, that are currently being uploaded to RMC daily so do make sure to check in (all the good ones are the ones I've done) for an in depth analysis of some of your favourite prospects! I'm pretty happy with where most of the players sit, the tiers have made themselves pretty obvious through the rewatchings, most of the difficulty came from actually ordering within them, so I'll go into depth here about the posts. Of course feel free to ask questions, make comments, leave admirations, etc. in response to this

Tier 1; Harley Reid, Jed Walter (Gold Coast)
Not much needs to be said, Reid is arguably the best junior prospect we've seen in a long time with a very well rounded game, if he can get his endurance to the standard of a full time AFL midfielder it'll be ******* scary regardless of where he ends up. Walter follows that high bar up by being one of the best and well rounded KPF prospects we've seen in a long time, there's not much he doesn't do offensively that guys like JUH, Kingx2, etc. did do, but Walter wipes the floor with them in regards to his defensive game. For a Ceiling description, I could see these two being the best player in the competition at some stage in their careers if all goes well

Tier 2; Colby McKercher, Ethan Read (Gold Coast), Zane Duursma, Daniel Curtin, Ryley Sanders (North Melbourne after 40), Connor O'Sullivan, Nick Watson, Nate Caddy
Pretty even group with a bunch of different strengths associated with all these guys and, in my view, very little bust potential, and the fact that a guy like Sanders is in discussion for Pick 5 and also the back end of this group pretty well highlights the evenness of it, although I did consider doing a Tier 2 (A) with the first 4 and a Tier 2 (B) with the latter 4, just because I see them all as having similar ceilings but do feel there's a slightly higher bust risk with Sanders, O'Sullivan, Watson and Caddy.
Ceiling Description; Multiple AA's/ Top 5 players on a list if all goes well

Tier 3; Darcy Wilson, James Leake, Caleb Windsor, Jake Rogers (Gold Coast), Ollie Murphy, Jordan Croft (Western Bulldogs), Mitchell Edwards (Fremantle after 40), Riley Hardeman, Harry DeMattia, Koltyn Tholstrup, Archie Roberts, Will Graham (Gold Coast), Luamon Lual (Western Bulldogs after 40), Will McCabe (Hawthorn), Lance Collard (West Coast after 40), Tew Jiath (Hawthorn after 40)
A lot of names in this tier and similar to Tier 2 I could've split it into Tier 3 A) with the guys placed 11-18 and Tier 3 (B) with the rest for the same reason.
Ceiling Description; AA selection/ Multiple AA Squad of 40's/ Top 10 players on a list

Tier 4; Will Green, Charlie Edwards, Angus Hastie, Taylor Goad, Harvey Johnston, Joel Freijah, Phoenix Gothard, Archer Reid, Zane Zakotelsky, Wil Dawson
Smaller tier than previous, but this is essentially the last of the group of players in this years crop that I think would be genuine National Draft contenders in most draft years, which pretty much sums up how I view the draft and why I think there's so many teams avoiding completely trading out of the top 35, and actively looking to get into the top 15, Green and Goad I still think end up pretty good Number 1 Rucks at AFL level though, which will present some value if they slip into the mid to late 30's/ rookie.
Ceiling Description; Top 15 players on a list

Tier 5; Koen Sanchez, Arie Schoenmaker, Billy Wilson, Lachlan Charleson, Oscar Ryan, Caiden Cleary (Sydney), Clay Hall, Jack Delean, Will Patton, Ashton Moir, Logan Morris, Kynan Brown (Melbourne), Vigo Visentini, Tarkyn O'Leary, Kade De La Rue, Geordie Payne, Jack Callinan, Ry Cantwell, Cooper Simpson
Weird tier to explain but I'll try so bear with me. There are some players in this tier like Moir, Sanchez, Wilson and Schoenmaker that I think have a ceiling that warrants being in tier 3, but have a lot more work to do to get there than the others in higher tiers so the risk wouldn't be worth it to me, and the rest are similar in the sense that I think they're all capable of becoming best 22 regulars or role players, but the potential to be in AA conversations or real difference makers each week just isn't there in my eyes, and if I'm being harsh a good chunk of this tier would be rookie's at best in stronger drafts.
Ceiling Description; Best 23 Player

no spots for luke lloyd, charlie harrop or will brown in the national draft?

 

[PMBangers]

no spots for luke lloyd, charlie harrop or will brown in the national draft?

Evidently not

 

[Viva la Mattner]

No Ashton Moir? interesting, what a fall down the order that'll be

 

[geelongrecruit5]

View attachment 1831923
40 WHOLE players for what will likely be the last rankings update of the year, wowee!

I've gone back and watched a * tonne of footy the last 4 weeks for the RMC draft profiles, that are currently being uploaded to RMC daily so do make sure to check in (all the good ones are the ones I've done) for an in depth analysis of some of your favourite prospects! I'm pretty happy with where most of the players sit, the tiers have made themselves pretty obvious through the rewatchings, most of the difficulty came from actually ordering within them, so I'll go into depth here about the posts. Of course feel free to ask questions, make comments, leave admirations, etc. in response to this

Tier 1; Harley Reid, Jed Walter (Gold Coast)
Not much needs to be said, Reid is arguably the best junior prospect we've seen in a long time with a very well rounded game, if he can get his endurance to the standard of a full time AFL midfielder it'll be ******* scary regardless of where he ends up. Walter follows that high bar up by being one of the best and well rounded KPF prospects we've seen in a long time, there's not much he doesn't do offensively that guys like JUH, Kingx2, etc. did do, but Walter wipes the floor with them in regards to his defensive game. For a Ceiling description, I could see these two being the best player in the competition at some stage in their careers if all goes well

Tier 2; Colby McKercher, Ethan Read (Gold Coast), Zane Duursma, Daniel Curtin, Ryley Sanders (North Melbourne after 40), Connor O'Sullivan, Nick Watson, Nate Caddy
Pretty even group with a bunch of different strengths associated with all these guys and, in my view, very little bust potential, and the fact that a guy like Sanders is in discussion for Pick 5 and also the back end of this group pretty well highlights the evenness of it, although I did consider doing a Tier 2 (A) with the first 4 and a Tier 2 (B) with the latter 4, just because I see them all as having similar ceilings but do feel there's a slightly higher bust risk with Sanders, O'Sullivan, Watson and Caddy.
Ceiling Description; Multiple AA's/ Top 5 players on a list if all goes well

Tier 3; Darcy Wilson, James Leake, Caleb Windsor, Jake Rogers (Gold Coast), Ollie Murphy, Jordan Croft (Western Bulldogs), Mitchell Edwards (Fremantle after 40), Riley Hardeman, Harry DeMattia, Koltyn Tholstrup, Archie Roberts, Will Graham (Gold Coast), Luamon Lual (Western Bulldogs after 40), Will McCabe (Hawthorn), Lance Collard (West Coast after 40), Tew Jiath (Hawthorn after 40)
A lot of names in this tier and similar to Tier 2 I could've split it into Tier 3 A) with the guys placed 11-18 and Tier 3 (B) with the rest for the same reason.
Ceiling Description; AA selection/ Multiple AA Squad of 40's/ Top 10 players on a list

Tier 4; Will Green, Charlie Edwards, Angus Hastie, Taylor Goad, Harvey Johnston, Joel Freijah, Phoenix Gothard, Archer Reid, Zane Zakotelsky, Wil Dawson
Smaller tier than previous, but this is essentially the last of the group of players in this years crop that I think would be genuine National Draft contenders in most draft years, which pretty much sums up how I view the draft and why I think there's so many teams avoiding completely trading out of the top 35, and actively looking to get into the top 15, Green and Goad I still think end up pretty good Number 1 Rucks at AFL level though, which will present some value if they slip into the mid to late 30's/ rookie.
Ceiling Description; Top 15 players on a list

Tier 5; Koen Sanchez, Arie Schoenmaker, Billy Wilson, Lachlan Charleson, Oscar Ryan, Caiden Cleary (Sydney), Clay Hall, Jack Delean, Will Patton, Ashton Moir, Logan Morris, Kynan Brown (Melbourne), Vigo Visentini, Tarkyn O'Leary, Kade De La Rue, Geordie Payne, Jack Callinan, Ry Cantwell, Cooper Simpson
Weird tier to explain but I'll try so bear with me. There are some players in this tier like Moir, Sanchez, Wilson and Schoenmaker that I think have a ceiling that warrants being in tier 3, but have a lot more work to do to get there than the others in higher tiers so the risk wouldn't be worth it to me, and the rest are similar in the sense that I think they're all capable of becoming best 22 regulars or role players, but the potential to be in AA conversations or real difference makers each week just isn't there in my eyes, and if I'm being harsh a good chunk of this tier would be rookie's at best in stronger drafts.
Ceiling Description; Best 23 Player

Super effort and great insight

 

[Orange crush]

Bangers, with our compo pick likely to come in to a late 30s pick, how do you think ZZ would be as a tall option to develop?

 

[FlyingV]

Lots of run at the top of tier 3. Wilson, Leake and Windsor. I reckon there is some gold to be struck there.

 

[PMBangers]

No Ashton Moir? interesting, what a fall down the order that'll be

Addressed in that tier 5 explainer, on potential he's a top 25 prospect easily, but there's a bit more he needs to work on than the players in that area to reach it.

Bangers, with our compo pick likely to come in to a late 30s pick, how do you think ZZ would be as a tall option to develop?

His athleticism and competitiveness will make him a pretty efficient stopper at the next level imo, although ball use, particularly in our system, would be a concern

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Hi PMBangers love the work.

What are the odds do you think of sanders falling to geelongs first pick??? And if they don’t get him, do you feel they will trade back?? And with who do you see that occurring with?? And what targets would they be aiming at if they trade back??

 

[nahnah]

There is a gun key forward at pick 19 yes? PMBangers ?

 

[PMBangers]

Hi PMBangers love the work.

What are the odds do you think of sanders falling to geelongs first pick??? And if they don’t get him, do you feel they will trade back?? And with who do you see that occurring with?? And what targets would they be aiming at if they trade back??

With the midfield needs of the Bulldogs, Melbourne and GWS picking before you I think the odds are pretty slim to be honest. I don't know about trading back considering the drop in quality it'd see for Geelong, so unless there was a future first involved it wouldn't make much sense from my POV.

There is a gun key forward at pick 19 yes? PMBangers ?

ah, sure

 

[Giant Strides]

There is a gun key forward at pick 19 yes? PMBangers ?

ah, sure

Who?

 

[Jack Richards]

Walter follows that high bar up by being one of the best and well rounded KPF prospects we've seen in a long time, there's not much he doesn't do offensively that guys like JUH, Kingx2, etc. did do, but Walter wipes the floor with them in regards to his defensive game. For a Ceiling description, I could see these two being the best player in the competition at some stage in their careers if all goes well

Love it mate.

With Walter is there a risk he could end up being a Watts or Schache? Weren't they generational talents?

 

[ArdentEagle]

What is it about Morris apart from being 191cm that makes him tier 5 mate?

I thought his marking and kicking are excellent?

Projected as a Darling type forward?

 

[PMBangers]

Who?

Well I just REFUSE to do a recruiters job for free, so for a low fee of $30K + health benefits I will reveal these aforementioned gun KPF players at Pick 19

Love it mate.

With Walter is there a risk he could end up being a Watts or Schache? Weren't they generational talents?

Unless he's suddenly put under a witch curse that takes away his physicality and aggression at the ball/ ball carrier, no, there's no risk

What is it about Morris apart from being 191cm that makes him tier 5 mate?

I thought his marking and kicking are excellent?

Projected as a Darling type forward?

Athletically underwhelming for an undersized marking target and has generally had the opportunity to bully opponents physically at underaged levels, so whether the contested marking is somewhat boosted due to his size is a bit of a question mark, although I think it's more technique personally, but with that size and lack of standout athletic traits it's hard to see where his development comes from, outside of endurance it's hard to improve any of the stuff tested at the combine.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Nate Caddy listed height is now 193cm and have been told he is still growing so should end up 195cm to 196cm

Does that change where he is drafted at all

Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

was only 192 his draft year but eventually kept growing to his 196cm current height

But he did slide draft night because of worries over his height

 

[briztoon]

Nate Caddy listed height is now 193cm and have been told he is still growing so should end up 195cm to 196cm

Does that change where he is drafted at all

Oscar Allen was only 192 his draft year but eventually kept growing to his 196cm current height

But he did slide draft night because of worries over his height

I’ve asked multiple times, but never received an answer.

Do kids get X-rayed as part of their physical at the combine?

Easiest way to see if a kids growth plates are still open, indicating there’s still potential growth in the kid.

I know the Lions do this with the kids they draft.

 

[Lingsface]

Charlie Edwards could do some damage off the half back flank and wing nice size to go with the wheels and damaging ball use.

 

[GrayNels]

I’ve asked multiple times, but never received an answer.

Do kids get X-rayed as part of their physical at the combine?

Easiest way to see if a kids growth plates are still open, indicating there’s still potential growth in the kid.

I know the Lions do this with the kids they draft.

Pretty sure that they don’t.
They have an ECG as a part of their State Teams but I’ve not heard about X-rays (maybe unnecessary exposure??)

 

[PMBangers]

Nate Caddy listed height is now 193cm and have been told he is still growing so should end up 195cm to 196cm

Does that change where he is drafted at all

Oscar Allen was only 192 his draft year but eventually kept growing to his 196cm current height

But he did slide draft night because of worries over his height

It could but he's been in the 5-10 frame for a while now anyway, he can't get taken much higher!
He's got such a good reach that i think a lot of people weren't super concerned with the height anyway

 

[geelongrecruit5]

Nate Caddy listed height is now 193cm and have been told he is still growing so should end up 195cm to 196cm

Does that change where he is drafted at all

Oscar Allen was only 192 his draft year but eventually kept growing to his 196cm current height

But he did slide draft night because of worries over his height

I’m a massive wrap for this lad, I’d have him at Geelong in a heart beat.