Poizun's Detailed Greyhound Tips (Updated Daily)

Poizun

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Thread starter #1
Running total on Best Bets from Jan 5th - Jan 10th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.

Outlay - $2600
Return - $2540

Profit - $60 (-2.3%)


Geelong

Lay - Like Noah (Race 7, No.6) - The watchdog has him installed a $3.60fav which seems a bit rich. Only win in 6 starts came in an extremely moderate maiden field. Form outside of that is bad. This is only a half stake G5 race, but there are a few others I would be taking before him. Clear top pick for me in this race in Sam Winchester. Struggled into 3rd spot, fading on his run. Was the benefitory of carnage on the home str8 allowing him to rail up and sneak a place.

Best - Cool Runnings (Race 1, No.4) - Don't need to wait long to see how the week is going to start. In what looks a winnable race, this greyhound won a qualy at Ballarat in a very good time for first look. No luck in the Qualy final and should have too much dash here. Only query is first starter and box 8. Rate him clearly on top and best of the card. Came out ordinary, tried to make ground and got polaxed. Could of made it's own luck but I've learnt my lesson. Dont label maidens best bets :)

Value - Son of Senna (Race 5, No.1) - I am not an advocate of backing dogs trained by Jason Formosa as he has probably the worst strike rate in greyhound racing, however this dog looks well suited today. Its form at Warnambool on times looks much much better than the numberic form shows. It has drawn the red box and could record its 6th win of its career at good odds. Came out well, held the fence and was far too strong in the run to the line. Juicy odds, $8.10W/$2.90p.

Shepparton

Abandoned! - Excessive heat.

Richmond

Lay - Pigeon Flyer (Race 10, No.5) - Quoted a 2/1 chance and tipped on top by the HotDog form. This greyhound has won since but will only beshown on TAB outlet form guides I believe. This greyhound is a pure front running dog and cant come from behind and with speed inside of him, Id prefer to be on Saint Dora at each-way odds then this one. Box 5 is a death trap at Richmond. It also steps upto a mixed 4/5. Too much against this youngster to take the shorts.

Best - Ace Sabatini (Race 3, No.2) - Class act who drops in class here significantly and is never far away. Stint in Victoria when never really fired up. Ultra strong dog who will be suited to the Richmond 618m. Rattled home into 3rd last start over the 618m which again does not show up on the form guide. That was race was won by Zambola Bale who outgunned Bluey Tadmore, 5 times harder than this line up. 7 runners suits and drawn close to the fence. Form guide has him not tipped in top 4, and a $17.00. That is highly highly ambitious. I will be happy with a quarter of that.

Value - Moonshine Party (Race 9, No.5) - In what looks like a very open race, this dog stood out as a value runner that has not been tipped or given a chance in early market indicators. It can begin very well, and even when it doesnt it musters extremely quick. The 525 finds it out up the straight but you can almost be certain if its close to the lead at the first turn wont miss a drum. Ticket each-way.

Albion Park

Lay - Tricky Uno (Race 8, No.3) - Promising youngster who has won an astonishing 8 from 8. The interesting thing about this greyhound was he won his first 3, then obviously broke down as he had 7 months off the scene, to only come out and win 5 to make his total 8 straight. Well, I am not a believer. Outside of his last start BGC 395m which was a slick time, his other times are good without being exceptional. Tonight he steps out into a much much harder level of race, not to mention an awkward box and on top of that, he is untested at 520m. Too many unknowns for me to take a short price, and the black sheep punters will ensure it starts a favourite. Go wide.

Best - Yikes (Race 9, No.1) - In what Paul Dolan has tipped Side Cutter a special in, I am flabbergasted any tipster could possible entertain the idea of tipping anything outside of Yikes, let alone making it a special!!!!!!! With that being said, if it gets rolled I will look like a big douchebag, but I cant see this field possibly stopping this dog from Box 1. Anchor in all your bets.

Value - Carlingford Frost (Race 7, No.2) - This greyhound has not been beginning as good as it can, and tonight I think it can atone. Its form behind Count the Dough, Lettuce Whistle and Miss Jersey is pretty handy and prior to that was placed behind Brisbane Cup finalist Vorificious. I think they will send this dog out huge odds, and I am quietly confident (shhh dont tell many people).

Cranbourne

Lay - Octane Spark (Race 9, No.5) - This Peter Giles trained speedster is stepping out into its hardest test to date against some really talented Cranbourne specialists. Sandwiched in box 5 as well as the fact that he hasnt come back since his SAT trial at Cranbourne, I feel this is a certain lay.

Best - Mid City Angel (Race 8, No.7) - PB of 30.07, Box 7, 2 empty boxes inside of her, very slow beginner outside of her. Lack of form dogs in the race. Special of the entire day and all cards. Not sure how short she will start, but for all quaddie, DD and exotics anchors, this is it

Value - Phelan Ready (Race 5, No.5) - Another greyhound with not the best strike rate in the world. However, has been racing against the likes of Nelly Bale and such who would start short favourite here. Dicey beginner but can find the line hard and you definetly want a strong dog to run the Cranbourne track. Be wary, but definetly include in multiples.

Gawler

Lay - Flying May (Race 5, No.1) - Won its last 3 in "respectable fashion" but against a bunch of cats to be frank. Today it steps out against dogs who have been racing against the likes of Beer Time, Springvale Dash and Vain Dakota. This will truely be an acid test today as its past two wins APK haven't been in any decent time. I'd be desperate as a bookie to lay this and id be looking to jump on Loxodrome.

Best - Playboy Passion (Race 2, No.2) - Purely for lack of finding anything else more of a lock this looks a pretty good thing in the 2nd maiden. Based on its 31.49 win, if it runs upto that time, it will win. Simple as that.

Value - 2 runners today

Redrock Star (Race 7, No.1) - Slow beginner who rattles home at the end of races. Suited more to the Gawler track as opposed to A.P where it raced first up from a spell. Look for it to be hammering home when it matters.

Blossom Star (Race 8, No.7) - Ironically, I could copy and paste description from above. Both have similiar racing patterns. He is third up from a short break and both runs this time in have been ultra encouraging. Ready to put best paw forward. Each way.

Launceston

Lay - Could not advise a lay for the meeting.

Best - Will do Well (Race 9, No.1) - Talented maiden dog who had no luck on debut when leader ran a scorching 26.30. The winner will only need to run 26.8 to take out this maiden and has shown lots of early promise and speed, so from the good draw, should just about win.

Value - Ridicule (Race 4, No.3) - Talented speedster who always gets sent out huge prices. Probably not huge today but definetly will be each-way value. Shows alot of dash early in its races and this set up its good results. Take it on its run 2 starts back when only beaten by 2.75l by superstar Tassie chaser, Topline Doovee. He starts $1.20 in a race like this. Definite show.

Wentworth Park

No time for Wentworth Tonight altho one of my favourite young dogs is racing in Race 2, No.7 - Low Self Esteem. Pay to follow.

GL
 

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Oaksnaf

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#2
It is dangerous to bet on maiden races, let alone select them as your best.......... and after the result at Geelong you stated "Don't label maidens as best bets". It seems you can't follow your own advice... Launceston Race 9 is a maiden race. Gawler Race 2 is a maiden race. Today thats 3/6 BEST BETS as maidens. I hope you are able to follow your own advice in future and ignore Gawler/Launceston bets.

As they say in poker. A hand saved. Is a hand won. Same with punting. A bet saved, is a bet won.

Do you have any records as to why $50w/$100p staking would work.

Are we laying at any quote? For any amount. Will you lay at any price? Because if its not going to win, its not going to win and the price could be irrelevant as lay bets get backed more often than back bets.

At what price do you consider your VALUE selections... VALUE?

You can copy all your LAY bets into excel through betfair and work out which odd range is profitable and which is not. Which is fantastic if you don't keep records yourself.

Which state do you know the best? Can you narrow it down and concentrate on one state? And see what happens then. Or at least find out which states/tracks are costing you big time.



Good luck Poizun, it is great to see interest in greyhound racing. But also great to see a bit of effort put into the selection/thought process.

Well done on SON OF SENNA. Backing $8 winners is always nice. You should also keep track of their profit/loss.

But great thread. Keep the hard work up. Hope some $$$$ comes your way.
 

Poizun

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It is dangerous to bet on maiden races, let alone select them as your best.......... and after the result at Geelong you stated "Don't label maidens as best bets". It seems you can't follow your own advice... Launceston Race 9 is a maiden race. Gawler Race 2 is a maiden race. Today thats 3/6 BEST BETS as maidens. I hope you are able to follow your own advice in future and ignore Gawler/Launceston bets.

I hear you with the maidens...

For both meetings, I could not find a good "best bet", and by virtue of the dog running 5 lengths quicker than my 2nd pick, and a further 2 lengths quicker than that...I did...

Launceston..Ironically, I was tossing up between Ridicule and the maiden as which I will make my best and value.. I thought ridicule would start a decent price and there we go... I have backed Wear it Well a few times and lost my money but this is close to one of its easiest assignments and the red is always a huge help.

And follow the best bets as they wont be many maidens in future today just happened to unravel like that

Also, from now on, if there are no best bet on the cards, I am just not going to put it. I have been trying to at least select one in each category as a guide for punters, but this is not always smart


As they say in poker. A hand saved. Is a hand won. Same with punting. A bet saved, is a bet won. True, very true.

Do you have any records as to why $50w/$100p staking would work. I have records of this working with value runners. I have only turn profitable since learning about "value". I figured doing this with my best bets, would have little variance from doing with value runners. They key with backing 10-1 shots in, you only have too be right one in 9 times to turn a profit, so if you miss 3 or 4 in a row people think you suck, when in theory you missed a few runners that were over the odds.

Are we laying at any quote? For any amount. Will you lay at any price? Because if its not going to win, its not going to win and the price could be irrelevant as lay bets get backed more often than back bets.Virtually. As a rule, I like to lay the odds-on. I declared with 90% certainty the other day that Numero Uno would get rolled for 2 major factors. He started $1.30 and ran near last. Also, two days ago, I put Sunlander($1.40) as my lay and in a 6 dog field, he got toppled too. My strength is getting the odds-on rolled. I am only just started recording laying results as I am looking at starting with betfair soon.

At what price do you consider your VALUE selections... VALUE? Its not easy to anticipate the market. For instance, last night Mantra lad payed $1.40 in the stayers heat. He should of been $1.20 at best. Technically, thats value. Any dog that I think is over the odds though significantly ill back. I prefer backing double figures, but if a favourite is sent out 2.90 and i think it should be even money, I will have a go. P.S Ultra Rumble made me very very happy on Saturday :) - $14.90 and more on other totes. I was blown away at such a big price

You can copy all your LAY bets into excel through betfair and work out which odd range is profitable and which is not. Which is fantastic if you don't keep records yourself.Can you message me how as I am new with betfair

Which state do you know the best? Can you narrow it down and concentrate on one state? And see what happens then. Or at least find out which states/tracks are costing you big time. Naturally, my choices in Victoria I know best. Form in WA, I personally find hardest.



Good luck Poizun, it is great to see interest in greyhound racing. But also great to see a bit of effort put into the selection/thought process.

Well done on SON OF SENNA. Backing $8 winners is always nice. You should also keep track of their profit/loss. Starting today, I am going to record the results of value runners to using that system.

But great thread. Keep the hard work up. Hope some $$$$ comes your way.
... See bold.
 

Poizun

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Running total on Best Bets from Jan 5th - Jan 10th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.

Outlay - $3500
Return - $3655

Profit - $155 (+4.2%)

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 11th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $1050
Return - $1045

Profit - $5 (-0.5%)

*Best Bets are dogs I view that should not miss a place and generally win. You will see small variance in profit but long term it should slowly rise and shouldnt lose money following these tips.

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.


Devonport

Heat 1

Super run by Topline Doovee last start when he beat Stylish Monty. Form had tapered off a little before that, but with that win it showed he is back to his best and put him clearly on top in heat one. Bogie Thunder has solid Victorian form behind star chasers Zenith and Violet Crumble and that always stacks up well in Tassie. High Choice always puts in 100% and should be there at the end and watch for the sprint champion Koocanusa to be charging late.

Topline Doovee, Bogie Thunder, High Choice, Koocanusa

Heat 2

Admiral Bale comes down from Victoria with some pretty wins behind him. Early on in his career, I had him labelled a "lucky dog", but he has since proved me wrong with some strong and impressive wins. He will be firing all cylinders and prove too strong. Toss up for second with veteran Akka Boy and One Wheel. For a little bit of value we will go with One Wheel who has been racing against the likes of Prankster and Pedro Pronto of late. He can bounce back here. Look for Munich Monelli to be charging when the race is over.

Admiral Bale, One Wheel, Akka Boy, Munich Monelli

Heat 3

Accounts should prove far too superior here. Current Maitland track record holder. Showed he was still racing well when clocking an impressive 29.88 win at Launceston over the 515m. Buzzin is a honest chaser who started his career in Victoria but has won 9 of 23 with 6 minors. From box 8, we will avoid all sorts of carnage if any. Barney Stinson recorded an extremely slick 25.60 win at Geelong two starts back and purely based on that run would be ultra competitive here. Watch for Where's Ned to be flying home.

Accounts, Buzzin, Barney Stinson, Where's Ned

Heat 4

The question around this race is how good Taipan Bale has come back from a long spell. He is pushing 4yrs of age now but at his best, he is close to the most honest sprinter in the land. His run for third in the Warnambool cup was just awesome coming from last in a star studden field. The other key lies in box 1 who is out of form, but can definetly improve on this wider track and a good draw. Darren only keeps champions, and you can bet your bottom dollar on the bunny this dog can run time. Super Joe Cool has been racing pretty flawless of late and he is not without a hope. Look for Hunted Down to be charging hom at the business end.

Timberland, Taipan Bale, Super Joe Cool, Hunted Down

Heat 5

Cradoc Park looks a treat to take out Heat 5. His only defeat in the last 5 runs came when he ran 2nd behind Silent Guardian. Enough said there. He has broken 26sec at this track last two runs and his PB comes from box 7. Too much in his favour to go past. Crime Fighter ran an almighty race when 2nd to Gardam Prince when beaten by just half a length in 26.07. If it were not for Box 4, and Cradoc being in Box 8, this would easily be top pick and odds on. Master Bart can be slow to begin but he rockets home as does Winklee Wonder who has never missed a place from 7 starts at the track.

Cradoc Park, Crime Fighter, Master Bart, Winklee Wonder

Heat 6

In what is by far and behind the hardest heat of the day to work out, its hard to go past the explosive Gardam Prince. Recent breathtaking 26.07 winner at Hobart and it took a superstar like Turanza Bale to topple him in a scintillating 25.33 at Geelong last start. Fisherman is one of the most consistent beginners and greyhounds in all of Tassie. From his ideal box, if the favourite finds any trouble at all, this one will zip around the field and give them the slip. Eighth Wonder, Stylish Monty and Hayder Bale look the only other possible hopes.

Gardam Prince, Fisherman, Hayder Bale, Stylish Monty

Heat 7

Gioves Thunder trialled solo around Devonport in a super slick 25.84. If he can repeat this run, he should just about win it. A dog which will be sent out big odds and has a huge chance is Whispering Blaze. Only was downed by .75L by Topline Doovee last start, has a quick 25.77 PB at the track and has been racing against the likes of Pedro Pronto and superstar Gripen Bale with no luck. This is the easiest assignment its had in a while and it definetly gets a chance to improve. Both Magpie Lomar and Big Zeus are showing ability.

Gioves Thunder, Whispering Blaze, Magpie Lomar, Big Zeus

Heat 8

Eagle Eye is all class and his usual faultless beginnings should see him win here. Yep and Buckle up Man will be giving this dog a start but watch for them both getting to the outside and powering home. Rulla Shaw is a handy type.

Eagle Eye, Yep, Buckle Up Man, Rulla Shaw

Angle Park

Lay - Cool Fever (Race 3, No.2) - Has put 3 on end in the form book but nothing like it meets today. Only won because of box last week and steps into a class it has never raced before. Ill go on a limb and say in a field of 7 the dog who has won its last three won't fill a place.

Best - Curl's Choice (Race 8, No.4) - Ultra consistent chaser who has been in the money 22 of 36. Has been screaming out for the 600m. Would of preferred to see it start over the 643m at Gawler but this will do. Normally gets back a little and runs on but this field lacks loads of speed outside a few out wide so she could find herself closer than usual.

Value - Allen Zuri (Race 5, No.6) - Numeric form reads 88577. Forget that. First two runs in SA, absolutely no luck. Can begin like a sling shot and if it can find the early lead in this race, I dont think much will run it down. Ticket each-way.

Horsham

Lay - Too hard to find a lay on the cards.

Best - Extreme Instinct (Race 1, No.8) - In what seems a gift in the first, Extreme Instinct has always shown alot of ability but tends to mess up the start early. Draws Box 8, in a weak field with a 10m handicap . The $4.30 in the paper almost seems Xmas early.

Value - 2 Runners

Mrs Hyde (RAce 8, No.10) - Somehows qualifies for this final as second reserve. I labelled this my best bet last week and it dissappointing highly after getting squeezed out early. It also was the first look at the track and today it draws the red with 2 very slow beginners so it should be more value than the $4 in the paper. Pays to stick with this one.

Xman (Race 12, No.8) - Cost me alot of money last start but today draws its box and its distance. Honest chaser climbing up the grades at the provincial tracks. Go very close.
 

Oaksnaf

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#6
You must remember the advantage of a box draw at Horsham over the 570m. 30/65 races have been won by boxes 1,2. Less than 10% of races over the past year have been won by Box 8. And given that Extreme Instinct wont lead this race it becomes a dangerous situation.

Should be charging home late, but the inside boxes have pace to burn early. And even with their 1m handicap, I see them punching up on the rails. Century Lane should be well OVERS this race and is a must for trifecta exotics.

Good luck.
 

Poizun

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Good read. That was definetly your race :)

The amount of money I have lost on that dog could of bought a house by now hahaha..

3 from 4 so far in the heats of the cup, including accounts at 4.40. :)
 

Oaksnaf

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#8
I was shocked to see Accounts run around at $4.00. I am sure you are too based on the level of confidence.

Don't be afraid to use box stats as a general guide to +/- your selections chances of winning. It is easy to say after the race, but if you had of known the Box stats for Horsham 570m, you might not have rated Extreme Instinct so highly. Especially with the slow early speed. And these stats are normally in direct relation to where the boxes are positioned.

If you look at 410m. There is no clear advantage. What you need to have. Is early speed. As around 60% of dogs who lead at the bend on 410m WIN. Thus early speed is incredibly important.

Track conditions are also important. It is hard to come from behind in the wet.

Good luck for your remaining races.
 

Poizun

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Thread starter #9
Running total on Best Bets from Jan 5th - Jan 12th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.

Outlay - $3800
Return - $3655

Profit - $145 (+3.9%)

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 12th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $1500
Return - $1665

Profit - $165 (+10%)

*Best Bets are dogs I view that should not miss a place and generally win. You will see small variance in profit but long term it should slowly rise and shouldnt lose money following these tips.

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Angle Park

Lay - Whatever Loz (Race 5, No.1) - Won 3 of 6, and despite drawing the red, meets probably its toughest field to date. Its wins have been in good time, but nothing spectacular. This dog reminds me similiar of Cool Fever yesterday who won its last 3, and lead up to the home str8 and fell in a hole to not even run a place. Based on times, this should happen again. Anticipating punters sending it out around a $3.00 shot, I wouldnt be taking anything less than $7-$8.

Best - Dragon State (Race 7, No.2) - Talented QLD sprinter having his first start in SA. Comes off racing against the likes of Fevolution and Veroficious and has been placed in 10 of 20 to date with 4 wins. Draws close to the rails, has been freshened up and is ready to win.

Value - Allen Rambla (Race 8, No.2) - Definite will be the value on the card. Ranked the 10/1 outsider by the hotdog form, this greyhound has numeric form of 885F8. Was showing enormous potentail in Victoria clocking a sizzling Geelong win in 25.6 as well as Shepp in 25.6 and Ballarat in 25.7. Has not found form or luck so far in Adelaide but today he can improve sharply against alot of greyhounds in similiar boats. Definite Each-Way ticket.

Sandown Park

Lay - Flying Pieces (Race 7, No.6) - Has strung three on end on the provincial tracks. Is a pure front running dog and this is its first test over the 515m, which based on its current racing, I personally do not think it will suit. Its other major problem is that it has brilliant beginners directly inside and outside of it. This will mean the odds of this dog leading clearly to the first turn are slim, and if it does not lead at the first turn, it will not even run a place.

Best - El Generale (Race 11, No.1) - Not necessarily the quickest dog in the race, however I think the way the boxes have panned out, everything tips into this dogs favour. Was a very solid winner at the Meadows in 30.36 on debut then followed up with a 2L defeat in 30.20.Mepunga Mac walks out of boxes and he is drawn in 2 and also Your Plumber in 3 doesnt show much early dash so this will give this greyhound loads of room early to move. Not only that there is bucket loads of speed in Boxes 5-8, so you can guarantee there will be some sort of carnage out wide.

Value - My Little Joyce (Race 10, No.2) - I labelled this a value runner last week when it ran third behind Nelly Bale and paid $3.70P and I think it is well positioned today to run a good race. Arvo's Falcon is the only real danger and the form outside of that is pretty slim. Only pays two dividends but look for another good run.


Albion Park

Lay - Back Page (Race 8, No.2) - Won past 3 at Rockhamption and Bunbury. Give no credit to dogs from this region. They will struggle in any Albion or Ipswich race. Lines up against a very classy field and probably wont even fill a drum.

Best - Sarah's Rival (Race 7, No.2) - I really think this dog is well placed in this event. Run home well in its last two after finding a little bit of bother. Is drawn to get a gun run behind early leader Mr Prizz and is proven at the 520m unlike alot of its rivals here.

Value - Chariot Hawk (Race 6, Box 8) - Death trap backing the pink over the 395m but this greyhound has been running some awesome races against some of QLD's best short course sprinters so from this wide draw he may take catching at each way odds.

The Gardens

Lay - Hot Size (Race 5, No.5) - Won 6 of 9 but most in moderate and will ensure it starts a blazing hot fav. Do not like it all from a squeeze box as its box skills leave a little to be desired. A few personal favourits in this race too, that I am leaning to and to be taken shorts for this dog, I would not be advising.

Best - Jaylo Magic (Race 9, Box.8) - Highly promising dog who has been slightly down on form of late. Today it draw's its box, meets extremely ordinary opposition and should atone and a good price.

Value - Holy Toly (Race 8, No.5) - No luck last two starts at all. Prior has been showing alot of promise as a youngster. Draws a rough box and good field which should enhance its price, but if it puts it all together. Watch out.

Ballarat

Lay - Nova Surf (Race 3, No.6) - Highly talented Sprinter who was sent out an extremely short elect in the Laurels final when beaten. Comes back into Darren's care when not firing on all cylinders back home in NSW. First up she draws a super talented field of short course specialists and draws a squeeze box. She will be sent around odds-on no doubt, and as Ambrosoli says, I would way prefer to be a bookie than a punter on this one.

Best - Sheylea (Race 10. No.8) - Racing in utter faultless form. Draws the best box it could want and even with Rellim Rosie in the race, Sheylea has all the times and wins on the board, there is no reason why it wont win again.

Value - Pot Thanks Cork (Race 4, No.2) - Finished 4L behind Flash of Light a few starts back which is good form for a race like this. Has not had much luck at box rise lately, and this dog can find the bunny and run.

Warnambool

Lay - Write To Mike (Race 9, No.7) - Greyhound who just gets luck to fall into its lap race after race. I really dont rank this sprinter that highly and it meets some smart types today with Will's Life more than likely cramp it up early and take it on in multiples tonight.

Best - Shiver Inside (Race 7. No.3) - Returned back to his brilliant best when recording a 25.4ish win last week. Drawn well close to the fence and his early dash should see him lead to the first marker and nothing will run him down if he records a similiar time.

Value - Pure City (Race 5, No.8) - No speed early but can definetly find the line over this range. Watch for him storming home at the end.

Bulli

Lay - Budapest (Race 5, Box.1) - This field is loaded with pace and it doesnt begin that well. Hotdogs have him tipped on top as a 5/2 favourite and I would clearly have Magnifique and Disintegrate in front of him, if not Gnarley boy too. Leave.

Best - Goodsey (Race 8, Box.7) - With Gripen Bale out, and drawing out side with all the speed inside, this looks like the race Goodsey can start making his mark as a topline sprinter. If thats comes out running or even positions up with the leaders by the home turn, watch explode up the straight and do not be surprised if breaks the magical 26 barrier.

Value - Janitor Bale (Race 7, Box.1) - Drops in class.Drawn to win. Simple

Bulli Cup Predications

Normally I do not like backing them odds on, but with ANY luck in running Goodsey has this lot covered. Hardest to beat outside of him is Disintegrate who should lead from the lovely box draw the reserve has picked up. Best of the rest is a toss up between Hurricane Luke (who i tipped on top at $5.40 in heats last week) and Little Sparkle.

Goodsey, Disintegrate, Hurricane Luke, Little Sparkle

Ipswich

Lay - Jimi Chew Shoes - Dog is similiar to Write to Mike. Alot of things have been going right for this dog of late. Guarantee it starts short and if this dog doesnt lead and come out running from the 7 it will get rolled at very skinny odds.

Best - Sunlander (Race 9, No.1) - Empty box in 2, small field. This will be as short as they come but its money for jam as they say. He has been racing in utter perfect form. Should break the magical 25 sec barrier too in this. Anchor galore.

Value - As you Do (Race 8, Box 8) - Handles the pink well, and has been racing super consistently. If there is any carnage at the first, this dog will zip around and nothing will run it down. Look for it to be in the firing line the whole way.

Tune in tomorrow as I do a Sandown special and full coverage of tomorrows meets.
 

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I was shocked to see Accounts run around at $4.00. I am sure you are too based on the level of confidence.

Don't be afraid to use box stats as a general guide to +/- your selections chances of winning. It is easy to say after the race, but if you had of known the Box stats for Horsham 570m, you might not have rated Extreme Instinct so highly. Especially with the slow early speed. And these stats are normally in direct relation to where the boxes are positioned.

If you look at 410m. There is no clear advantage. What you need to have. Is early speed. As around 60% of dogs who lead at the bend on 410m WIN. Thus early speed is incredibly important.

Track conditions are also important. It is hard to come from behind in the wet.

Good luck for your remaining races.
I didnt take into consideration the boxes at the 570m, so that probably is where I fell short. And yes, the wet suits front runners, but I thought his would position up alot closer than he did. =( Still would of put him on top, but not as hard as I originally did. Its not that he bombs starts, he just musters pace so slowly until mid race, and even still his action doesnt look right to me his last few runs...O well...Live and learn...
 

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#11
I've been betting on dogs for many,many years and I finally came to the conclusion a while ago that betting on SA dogs just isn't smart punting.

Average dogs and bad pools.
 

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#12
I've been betting on dogs for many,many years and I finally came to the conclusion a while ago that betting on SA dogs just isn't smart punting.

Average dogs and bad pools.
For you it might not be smart punting. But for many others it is and they have seemingly been stealing your cash for the years you have punted in SA.

If your betting at Ballarat tonight Poizun. Be aware that 450m is a railers dream, while the position of 550m boxes gives the middle boxes the best run. It's rare that you see BOX 4 having better stats than BOX 1, and that is the case over the 550m.

Warrnambool is similar to Ballarat. Favours insides. But over the sprints, the obvious choices come to mind with the leaders at the bend winning a large % of the races there.

Good luck tonight.
 

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Running total on Best Bets from Jan 5th - Jan 13th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.

Outlay - $4700
Return - $4135

Profit - $565 (-12%)

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 13th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $2400
Return - $2580

Profit - $180 (+9.3%)

*Best Bets are dogs I view that should not miss a place and generally win. You will see small variance in profit but long term it should slowly rise and shouldnt lose money following these tips.

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Bendigo

Lay - Pure Tonic (Race 6, No.1) - In what has been labelled the watchdog's best bet, I have to disagree. What the form does not really show, is the abundance of speed capable to come from boxes 1-4. Corporal Bond (Box 2) gave us a glimpse last week of how he can begin when not quite holding out Just Eileen and Guitar Hero and Pure Peaches can come out running too.. Watch for Krebs to carve across from the pink. Whoever survives the early scrimmage will win, as their are no notorious swoopers in this race, but when they will more likely send this round an even money shot, Id prefer to put my cash somewhere else.

Best - Graceful Amy (Race 9, No.2) - Racing against the likes of Jarvis Bale, Guacamole and Tafari Bale. In a race lacking any early speed in the inside boxes, Graceful Amy should be able to find the early lead and if it does its strength over the longer trips will show and it will win.

Value - Krebs (Race 6. No.8) - In the same race as my lay, I think this greyhound will get a dream run out wide. Loves the track (17 starts for 2 wins and 8 minors), has a very nice PB of 24.29 and has been there abouts lately.

Maitland

Lay - New Divide (Race 9, No.3) - Young dog who recorded a very slick win at the Gardens at his second start. This will ensure he starts odds on and first look at Maitland from a squeeze box with direct speed on your inside will mean he won't have the race handed to him on a platter. There are 2 or 3 dogs who I am sure can match it with him.

Best - Little James (Race 4, No.1) - At his top this brilliant short course specialist would blow them away. There is only one query. He has had 4 months off the racing scene. However, he returns fresh, draws a fantastic box and if he has come to race, he will prove far far too superior.

Value - Hassell (Race 3, No.5) - Notorious slow beginner who gets warm in the middle of races and charges home late. Has been racing on the tight Wentworth Park circuit lately and has been running well. Will be suited by the big wide Maitland track and the extra distance suits. Mrs Trickett will start short, with Bread and Butter second pick, so definite value for this runner.

Angle Park

Lay - Springvale Dash (Race 6, No.6) - Struggled last start when never out of trouble. Also, spiting it because it cost me probably around $700 haha. Box 6 has done it no favours in a race where there is oodles and oodles of speed and if this dog cant get in front of High Earner, which it wont, it has no chance of running it down.

Best - High Earner (Race 6, No.4) - This looks a stand out for me. Awesome run last week when it did loads and loads of work behind Dyna Lachlan and still was only beat 2 lengths in a breathtaking BON of 29.50. This dog is absoultely faultless over the first 100m, and even with Manuel Bale and Sunny Boy Love inside of him, he should be able to work to the front by the first turn and that will be that. If you can get anything better than $3 on fixed betting, have a crack.

Value - Remo Rubik (Race 5,No.7) - In what is a super race, Remo has been boxed beautifully out wide in the fact that Drink Driver isnt the worlds best beginner and Rev Limiter will take one step left as soon as it leaves the boxes, so this will give Remo Rubik every possible chance going into the first turn. Dyna Lachlan will start favourite but will have to stave off all the speed that will come from Where's Diamond, Boozeroo and Fevolution. No trouble out wide, and an awesome 29.38 Sale winner after having to do work shows he can still run a strong 500 out. Currently the 10/1 outsider in hotdog and if you get that, giggle away.

Adelaide Cup Predictions

Semi Final 1

Great race, where I am going to put my best value bet of the day on top. See reasons above. I think Dyna Lachlan may find trouble early and be giving Remo Rubik too much of start. Boozeroo is a powerful bitch who has run some sizzling times in Adelaide so she will definetly be in the mix. Rev Limiter is dodgy at box rise and tends to cut left straight out of boxes, but will chase all day long.

Remo Rubik, Dyna Lachlan, Boozeroo, Rev Limiter

Semi Final 2

High Earner is one super talented pup with El Galo like box manners. This should put him in as a red hot favourite to take out this heat. I think Manuel Bale will get squeezed out early with Sunny Boy Love holding the fence behind High Earner. Outwide, Springvale Dash and Dyna Forte will more than likely get beaten for speed early but they are both strong and will be scorching home out wide on the track at the end of the race.

High Earner, Sunny Boy Love, Springvale Dash, Dyna Forte

Semi Final 3

This is one tough mofo of a race. The only genuine early speed in the race seems to come from Mr Metz, but he is meeting one hot heat and if he does not lead, he will not run a place, so thats a gamble there. Prankster and Lady Gaga are both unreliable at box rise, as is Dentax Bale, but he is definetly a case for the fence. In a race, where I could go 10 different ways and still miss it by a long shot, lets take Lady Gaga and hope that Jason Thompson has this dog firing tonight. For second I will take Prankster to carve across with Dentax Bale rattling home. Look also for Grand Siyan who will stay outwide and avoid all trouble. Mr Metz to find trouble early and run near last.

Lady Gaga, Prankster, Dentax Bale, Grand Siyan

Semi Final 4

Turanza Bale has been one of the most unluckiest chasers in recent times but definetly one of the most talented. He is a case for the fence as he jsut crashes left and rails hard. He showcased this in The Shootout when he refused to go around Velocette and was nailed to the rail. Fedex and Sheoak Ian will come out running and could cause each other trouble and Turanza Bale may end up closer than normal. Strictly Mambo to be charging late.

Turanza Bale, Fedex, Strictly Mambo, Sheoak Ian

Albion Park

Lay - Bellbird Park (Race 2, No.1) - This was my lay last week when it ran 5th as second favourite. Tonight it meets a similiar assignment if not harder. Speed in 2,3,5 will ensure if it leads it will have to work extremely hard for it and will be found wanting at the end. If it does not lead it cant run a place. Treat with caution.

Best - 2 Best bets on the card.

Robo Raptor (Race 6, No.3) - Highly talented youngster who is as tough as they come. Will prove far too superior and is a must for quaddie anchors. Follow this dog in some feature events in future.

Visualisation (Race 10, No.1) - Was goin to make this the special last week but thought it would be way too short from box 5, but sent it around nearly $4!!!. From box 1, it looks a treat to hold the lead into the first turn and if it does, that will be the end of it.

Value - Mystic Rumble (Race 5, No.6) - Not suited to a tight track like Lismore, this greyhound should get a little more room to move. It's run behind Black Attack when it went done a nose (0.03L), was an awesome effort and even though it has only won 1 of 16 here, it has been placed in another 7 and he should be figuring in the finish somewhere.

Dapto

Lay - Snowsill (Race 7, No.8) - 3 starts, 3 wins. On paper looks good and against this line up, it looks very good. However, based on times, a 22.99 Bulli win, 30.54 and 30.33 at Dapto, is good without being anywhere near spectacular. This will surely get sent around odds on, and with dogs like Deaksey, Seriously, Cool Lion Heart and Autowave who might get a clear crack tonight, can run very similiar time so I would definetly be wary on this and it will not be an anchor for me tonight.

Best - Excel Like Speed (Race 5, No.8) - If you want an anchor in the quaddie this is it. Class act who meets extremely moderate opposition. Will get a clear run from the pink and should land on the speed and career off the back straight and win easily.

Value - He's Hotz Stuff (Race 9, No.2) - Recorded his PB off this draw and drops a little in class. Has recorded 3 wins from 7 starts at this track but his numeric form of 55485 is enough to sway punters away and send this dog out at way over the odds. Has not raced for 3 weeks, so will be fresh for this event. Ticket each-way.

Hobart

Lay - Hudson (Race 5, No.8) - Has not missed a place from his last 5 starts but all have been from inside boxes. He draws off the track and thats definetly the wrong spot for this greyhound. This will get sent around favourite, and do not be at all surprised if it misses a place.

Best - Lettuce Leaf Lad (Race 7, No.1) - Seriously, this dog has had worst luck than you will see of late. Draws inside and the check is a slow wide runner. Surely it bounces back tonight. Has a sizzling PB to his name and should get room to move early. Wins.

Value - Swami (Race 10, No.8) - In what seems a fairly evenly matched race on paper, Swami is a talented ex-Victorian dog who has been racing against the likes of Pure Thirst and Pneumonia Alley. He likes to track wide in races, so he wont miss a place from this box.

Sandown Park

Race 1

Early pace from Black Sakura and Sassi Jay will be challenging for the early lead. Greysynd Thunder boxed well out wide and has not missed a top 2 finish in its last two starts and Upsy Daisy will be charging along the fence late.

Black Sakura, Greysynd Thunder, Upsy Daisy, Sassi Jay

Race 2

Hooded Keats should be able to lead this field comfortably with Banger Harvey sitting right on its back. These 2 should get space to race early and clear out with a big enough lead to battle out the finish. The two strongest dogs in the race are Shakey Bake and Allen Ulrick. If there is any trouble up front watch for these swoopers.

Hooded Keats, Banger Harvey, Shakey Bake, Allen Ulrick

Race 3

Smoken Ichiban looks like he will get every chance to lead all the way, Guacamole will just stay outwide and grind away all the day. Tethrahedron, Acquired Taste, Kurnai King and Join the Queue will be the swoopers from the back.

Smoken Ichiban, Guacamole, Join the Queue, Tethrahedron

Race 4

Ashby Rose bounced back to form with a super 25.30 win at Warnambool and if she repeats that, she will win here. Cruiser Joy is a talented bitch who has had no luck of late. Same can be said about the McDonald trained Rose Chalice. These 2 are both open for improvment. Teaman Titch and Questa Bale will be giving the leaders a start but they are the swoopers.

Ashby Rose, Cruiser Joy, Rose Chalice, Questa Bale

Race 5

Last week, I layed Gypsy Flame as the favourite and it ran 5th. Tonight, it is boxed and positioned well in this race. There is no direct speed near it, and it should be able to find the lead at the first turn. Based on its recent 29.85, if this happens it should lead all the way. Merrily Mack is boxed well and is a smart thinking greyhound who will utilise this box well. Cooper Bale and Blitzem Bale will be flying late.

Gypsy Flame, Merrily Mack, Cooper Bale, Blitzem Bale

Race 6

Mystical Soul is boxed to win and only breaking down will stop it from winning. The inside 3 boxes should fill the minor placings here with all their early dash. Standout special for quaddie.

Mystical Soul, Book Of Music, Arvo's Breeze, Fire Miss

Race 7

Zenith meets a group that would be battling to stay within 3 lengths of it to the first marker. Tonight it should run them ragged with a sizzling first split. Nelly Bale and Violet Crumble are both showing good form and from the inside 2 boxes they should be running right behing the tearaway leader. Arvo's Florence can be hit n miss but watch it mid-race start to warm up.

Zenith, Violet Crumble, Nelly Bale, Arvo's Florence

Race 8

The key to the race comes from the inside boxes. Gabla Jack has great toe and Crossfarnogue ran a sizzling 5.13 to the first marker when it took a star like Birthday Boy to run it down. Put it on top over Galba Jack. Miss Mega Pins should get a gun run behind the leader and watch for Viva Vegas and Ultra Rumble flashing late.

Crossfarnogue, Galba Jack, Miss Mega Pins, Ultra Rumble

Race 9

Who Told Helen is dropping in class and could find the early lead and take the cash at her 82nd start. Viva Las Vegas is not drawn on the right side of the track but does have a slashing 25.30 win at Ballarat from an inside draw and should get all the favours behind the leader. Stagger Inn, Kandy Bale and Lots of Moolah best of the race for multiples.

Who Told Helen, Viva Las Vegas, Kandy Bale, Lots of Moolah

Race 10

Another Innings had not an ounce of luck last week and depsite its awkward draw, gets its chance to improve on its debut with the big boys. Selynya Magic was my value tip last Thursday night and went down half a length at $22. It will be suited by a wide draw and should be figuring somewhere in the finish. Best of the rest, are the four inside boxes who all show speed and would not surprise.

Another Innings, Selynya Magic, Brazen Buey, Bomber Fury

Race 11

Last Stress has been racing against the best of the best lately and it drops back in class tonight and should get a clear run from the pink. Catch up Sunday and Intoxicate are both young dogs showing loads of talent and with luck they should feature prominently. Lucent has talent.

Last Stress, Catch Up Sunday, Intoxicante, Lucent
 

Oaksnaf

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#15
Good luck today Poizun.

37% of races over the 430m at Bendigo are won by boxes 1,8.

Here is my early speed market for Bendigo Race 6: The market is revolved around those leading at the bend.

3 GUITAR HERO $3.86
1 PURE TONIC $4.76
8 KREBS $6.53
4 PURE PEACHES $8.06
7 TICORAN KID $9.95
2 CORPORAL BOND $13.65
5 MR HALL $20.81
6 COOL AUSSIE $31.71
 

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Good luck today Poizun.

37% of races over the 430m at Bendigo are won by boxes 1,8.

Here is my early speed market for Bendigo Race 6: The market is revolved around those leading at the bend.

3 GUITAR HERO $3.86
1 PURE TONIC $4.76
8 KREBS $6.53
4 PURE PEACHES $8.06
7 TICORAN KID $9.95
2 CORPORAL BOND $13.65
5 MR HALL $20.81
6 COOL AUSSIE $31.71
Thanks mate. You too.. Can you believe you were getting $3.20 fix on goodsey..Still in shock mode over it.

That market is pretty spot on, but the smokey if any will definetly be Corporal Bond.
 

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#17
Yes that was a good bet there Poizun. Well done on Goodesy. Even the closing Fixed Odds of $2.80 was well OVERS. I didn't get to see what prices they traded at betfair, did anyone watch betfair?
 

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#18
For you it might not be smart punting. But for many others it is and they have seemingly been stealing your cash for the years you have punted in SA.
Haven't been stealing mine.

I've hardly layed a big bet on SA dogs in the last 15 years.

Back and before then then SA had a wealth of classy dogs going around.

Since then it's been flooded with the worst of the Bale dogs and with the crappy prize money the class has dropped signifigantly.
 

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#19
4/7 Bets bets won. Well done on the Strike Rate. But hard to make money at those odds day in day out.

Have you kept a track of your average odds and which odd ranges are more profitable?
 

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4/7 Bets bets won. Well done on the Strike Rate. But hard to make money at those odds day in day out.

Have you kept a track of your average odds and which odd ranges are more profitable?
Very true. To be honest, I do not personally bet on my "best" bets all the time, because even if they are the best of the card, if they are too short IMO, I will leave them alone. This thread I guess is more being used as a guide for anyone possibly wanting to bet at a certain meeting and hopefully steer a winner or value there way. As a rule, I prefer to back the value runners obvioulsy, but I may not actually nominate the good one on my pre-race form, as sometimes the markets can throw you some doozies you do not expect.

Example - My Amigo at Albion Park I thought would be close to even money mark and was the clear class factor in the Young Guns Final..He blew out to $2.90/$1.70 and if you could get fixed odds that, you would load up for certain each-way. But I could not predict it starting even close to that price.


Also, the lays help me earn money too in regards to going wide in exotic betting which I am currently working on. For instance, yesterday my lays were:

Pure Tonic - Sent out $1.80 favourite beaten - Unplaced
New Divide - Sent out $2.30 favourite beaten - Third but no Third Dividend
Springvale Dash - Sent out $15 beaten (all money for high earner), TBH at $15 it was actually value lol - 2nd
Bellbird Park - Sent out $6 third favourite - Unplaced
Snowsill - Sent out $2.10 favourite beaten - 2nd
Hudson - Sent out $3.10 favourite beaten - Unplaced.

Now it does not always work that well, but if you look at the races were all those favourites got rolled, the exotics paid nicely. Obviously, you had to get the rest, but yeah.

I will be scrapping recording the best bet tally's as in thinking about it a little closer, I dont think a 50/100 will work with best bets, where as with value runners (which currently is 75% of my betting) does prove to work with me. I would advise people to follow the value runners anyway, as you have to outlay too much to win a similiar amount backing the shorties.

On paper it was an okish night. At Sandown Race 2, I stood out the winner and with my other 3 selections found the first four which paid $493. And later on I boxed the first four which paid $300. In that race, I was a lip from standing out the winner too, just getting nailed on the line which I saw happening as soon Arvo's Florence bounced into 2nd at first turn.

By the way, if I ever tip Lettuce Leaf Lad again, shoot me. That dog can find more trouble than a chubby kid in a cake shop..Unreal how much trouble this dog finds.

Hope you all did well last night!!
 

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Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 14th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $3300
Return - $3380

Profit - $80 (+2.4%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Shepparton

Lay - Supreme Level (Race.6 No.8) - This is the beauty of dog racing. Last week I labelled this my best bet and it got the bikkies. But I tell you now, it was not in the slight bit impressive. It fell in, over a very very ordinary field. It has never missed a place from the pink, but with dogs like Egyptian Boy and Pegasus directly inside of him, and also speedy begins in the inside traps, today's assignment is going to be much harder. Based on its last 3 runs on time form, and also watching the replay of last week's race, I am highly confident this well backed commodity will get rolled. Sent around $1.90 red hot favourite and bombed the start and this was the end of that. Definetly not racing anywhere near his best. Treat warily in future.

Best - Bernie Beetroot (Race 4, No.4) - Horrible field. Young dog on the up and drops in class from mixed 4/5 into a 1-4 wins field. Super winner in 31.38 and 31.53. Only need to run similiar to blow field away. Jumped into second and railed hard to find the lead and was far too strong blowing them away mid-race to pay around $2.60/$1.40

Value - Jigsaw Lass (Race 9, No.6) - Racing without an ounce of luck lately. Can run some quick early sectionals and put it into the finish. Drawn well out wide and drops in class on his past 4 runs where she has met Nikita Beriman, Sangarakka, Unsmashable and Supreme Level. They are all stars of the provincial circuit. Big odds. No luck again early for this greyhound. Found the fence mid-race and was trying to make ground but was beaten along way into 4th, just being pipped for 3rd spot. Was sent out $23W/$4P

Nowra

Lay - No obvious lays on today's card.

Best - Bim Bam (Race 6, No.4) - In what looks to be between On Parole and Bim Bam, I really like this dog for its earlier toe than On Parole. No doubting Parole's class but it does everything wrong to get beat and at better odds, the run behind Tyson Magic was super last week, and before that clocked an impressive 30.25. That'll do me!!

Value - Hungry Bear (Race 5, No.8) - The kennelmate will more than likely start odds on in this final for the maidens, but this time Hungry Bear gets the good pink draw and should be able to avoid trouble out wide. Worked home behind the favourite well last start and keeps improving with everyone. Lots of speed in middle and rail boxes, ensures that the favourite won't have this on a platter.

Traralgon

Lay - Mel (Race 8, No.7) - Improving type who uncharactistically came off the pace to score her heat in a slick 29.93. Lots of trouble in the race she won, and she was a beneficiary of it. Field here is much much stronger and installed a 7/4 fav early is a bit rich for me. Look to others.

Best - Connor's Fury (Race 7, No.8) - No luck at last two when slow early and dogs smashing into him on the fence. Today draws outwide at a track he has won 2 from 2. Meets a decent, but not special group of dogs. Should blaze down the outside and clear them by the first turn.

Value - Phelan Ready (Race 5, No.1) - Always thereabouts. Can be erratic early but ran home well when placed at Cranbourne. Might get a decent run through if it stays nailed to the rail. The field is moderate and could surprise although I am sure the punters will send it around a $6 shot even tho it should be at 10s

The Gardens

Lay - Lucy Tanga (Race 8, No.1) - Impressive winner of last 2 in solid time and draws coveted red box. This will ensure it gets sent around favourite and there is alot of early dash in this race especially from Mud Blood who is a personal favourite. Again, this should be a $4.20 shot from the red and I doubt it will get out to that. More than likely $2.20 and thats unders.

Best - Valiant Journey (Race 2, No.8) - Class chaser who has been out of sorts lately. Did record a super Nowra sprint win a little back and was slightly dissappointing at Dapto when sent around short. Gets chance from his good draw to improve and should find this field more to its liking.

Value - Nat Cool (Race 7, No.8) - I really really like this dog tonight as a great chance. Will use box 8 to perfection. In an extremely open race you should get some juicy value for whoever you like, but his form from outside boxes is excellent of recent. Definete follower!!!!

Albion Park

Lay - Mythbuster (Race 7, No.1) - Slow beginner who likes to use a bit of the track. With that being said, box 1 definetly wont suit. Show no regard to its PB of 30.20 from the red on the track. Lots of speed in 2 and 3, and Lettuce Whistle has by far the best finishing burst in this field.

Best - Halie Rose Hi (Race 6, No.1) - Gives the impression the 520 will suit. Top form over the shorts with not much luck. Should be able to lead this group on its ear, and provided it can even find the line moderately. Should just win.

Value - Early Secret (Race 4, No.1) - Unplaced in last 5 runs, but has been racing in 10x harder company than it meets here. Gets a box to improve, and this lot is very veryyyyyyyy ordinary. Numeric form might spice up his price, but he should definetly improve tonight.
 

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Scarlett Girl - (Race 1, No.5) - No luck in any of its first 4 starts. Showing huge promise. Meets another ordinary bunch again and look for it to blow this field away. Only query is first starters :eek:.

Won @ $3ISH



Follow the comments, this dog absoultely teared apart the maiden final field and recorded an unbelievable 29.65.
 

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Another prime example of how hard it is at times to work out the betting public. There is no way Id put up Phelan Ready as a value runner when it starts as a $4 fav!!! Thats ridiculous.....Yawns... Anyway.... life goes on :)
 

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Hawthorn
#24
I hope you raed this. lol. But I know that, what works for some, doesn't work for others. BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT.

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Three days ago you were showing profit in your BEST BETS. And now the running tally is gone after a bad run. That is an exceptional small sample to guage your performane on.

If you keep the simple stats.

Races
Wins
Return
Places
Return

But then again if your not actually punting them and are tipping them for the forum sakes then I wouldn't bother. As you will lose interest and will only start tipping for the sake of tipping. And tipping for the sake of tipping always = -$$

Why a BEST BET always seems to be the BEST GREYHOUND has me dumbfounded. As the BEST GREYHOUND can be found by most punters, however serious they are in their punting. And that is why, most of the time they are poor value. And equal long term losses for most.

Lets face it. Analysis and Punting are two seperate things. Just because your tips are good. Does not mean you are going to make money. It does give you a LOT of false hope.

Just because your tips are bad. Does not mean you are going to lose money. It just means you need to be an exceptionally good punter to make up the difference. But a bad punter/good tipster will never make any money.

There is no right/wrong way to make a selection. But there is a right/wrong way to punt them. And for ME the only way I have found out about the PUNTING part is through historical data. With each recorded in moderate detail.

Last year on this thread I ran a simple BOXING TOP 4 P/L thread.My tipping was exceptionally poor during these two months. I was losing big %'s on my top ratings with a horrible strike rate. YET after 750 races. We should a $19k profit in boxing our TOP 4 exotics. Thats $60 a race. And $256 a quaddie (BOXING 4 in each leg).

I was tipping in all different states, across a wide range of grades. Including first starter races.

In fact here go:

720 races 213 winners @ 28.4% S/R returning $619.80 Top Ratings.

HORRIBLE. I can tip 30% winners no problem... but punting on them HORRIBLE.

2nd rating even worse.

714 races 136 winners @ 19% returning $566.10

I was winning plenty by getting some huge dividends and managed to win a few thousand from a $30 outlay at Shep one Friday morning. But I really needed to IMPROVE my selections and work out what I was doing wrong to ensure a more consistent and steady profit.

So I talked to a few other greyhound punters. And they started mentioning about CLEAR CUT selections and how you rate a race and how clearly you start to see it.

From there I broke my previous stats down, and found that I was all over the place interstate and didn't really the time to cover them properly. And maiden races... well whats the point. Most of the time your guessing anyway.

After 2 more months of analysis and understanding certain aspects of punting. I started on 1/1/10 this year. Keeping track of my markets. My bets and my Top 4.

NOW after realising where I was going wrong. We have this:

TOP RATING
89 races
36 winners @ 40.44%
$105 @ 18% POT
64 placings @ 72%
$96.32 @ 8% POT

BOXING TOP 4 selections:
OUT $8434
IN $11298.90

BUT here is the good part.

MY TOP 15 ratings (based on their odds) read as:

12 winners @ $1.60. $1.4. $1.4. $1.2. $1.4. $2.7. $1.4. $1.3. $1.7. $1.8. 2.3. $3.7 = $21.90 @ 46% POT
1 second
2 thirds


And since we have those stats, we know that 12/15 races we have our TOP RATING as a clear cut winner in exotics. Which allows us to place multiple units on exotics with the placegetters becase we can only see one greyhound winning.

I have found a few TRIFECTA's in correct order. $70. $35. 40.

In greyhounds I have rated at over $20 in my market there have been 3 winners from 177 runners. Those winners were @ $25. $16.7. $7.7 = $49.40.

I have also looked at the LOWEST 25 TAB prices in races that I have rated. ONly 13 of them won. All less than $2.00. Winners were:

$1.2.$1.2.$1.3.$1.4.$1.4.$1.4.$1.4.$1.6.$1.6.$1.7.$1.8.$1.8.$1.8.$1.9
= $20.30 thats almost -20% POT and hard to make up that difference.

The ONLY. ONLY reason. I am profitable. Is through my own data anlysis and KEEPING RECORDS.

If you made it here. I hope you are able to take something out of it.
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Joined
Mar 31, 2008
Posts
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Location
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AFL Club
Hawthorn
#25
Another prime example of how hard it is at times to work out the betting public. There is no way Id put up Phelan Ready as a value runner when it starts as a $4 fav!!! Thats ridiculous.....Yawns... Anyway.... life goes on :)
Simple answer. Put a price next to the runner to determine value. See how many OVERS win compared to UNDERS. If OVERS is profitable. You've found value.
 
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