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Running total on Best Bets from Jan 5th - Jan 10th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.
Outlay - $2600
Return - $2540
Profit - $60 (-2.3%)
Geelong
Lay - Like Noah (Race 7, No.6) - The watchdog has him installed a $3.60fav which seems a bit rich. Only win in 6 starts came in an extremely moderate maiden field. Form outside of that is bad. This is only a half stake G5 race, but there are a few others I would be taking before him. Clear top pick for me in this race in Sam Winchester. Struggled into 3rd spot, fading on his run. Was the benefitory of carnage on the home str8 allowing him to rail up and sneak a place.
Best - Cool Runnings (Race 1, No.4) - Don't need to wait long to see how the week is going to start. In what looks a winnable race, this greyhound won a qualy at Ballarat in a very good time for first look. No luck in the Qualy final and should have too much dash here. Only query is first starter and box 8. Rate him clearly on top and best of the card. Came out ordinary, tried to make ground and got polaxed. Could of made it's own luck but I've learnt my lesson. Dont label maidens best bets
Value - Son of Senna (Race 5, No.1) - I am not an advocate of backing dogs trained by Jason Formosa as he has probably the worst strike rate in greyhound racing, however this dog looks well suited today. Its form at Warnambool on times looks much much better than the numberic form shows. It has drawn the red box and could record its 6th win of its career at good odds. Came out well, held the fence and was far too strong in the run to the line. Juicy odds, $8.10W/$2.90p.
Shepparton
Abandoned! - Excessive heat.
Richmond
Lay - Pigeon Flyer (Race 10, No.5) - Quoted a 2/1 chance and tipped on top by the HotDog form. This greyhound has won since but will only beshown on TAB outlet form guides I believe. This greyhound is a pure front running dog and cant come from behind and with speed inside of him, Id prefer to be on Saint Dora at each-way odds then this one. Box 5 is a death trap at Richmond. It also steps upto a mixed 4/5. Too much against this youngster to take the shorts.
Best - Ace Sabatini (Race 3, No.2) - Class act who drops in class here significantly and is never far away. Stint in Victoria when never really fired up. Ultra strong dog who will be suited to the Richmond 618m. Rattled home into 3rd last start over the 618m which again does not show up on the form guide. That was race was won by Zambola Bale who outgunned Bluey Tadmore, 5 times harder than this line up. 7 runners suits and drawn close to the fence. Form guide has him not tipped in top 4, and a $17.00. That is highly highly ambitious. I will be happy with a quarter of that.
Value - Moonshine Party (Race 9, No.5) - In what looks like a very open race, this dog stood out as a value runner that has not been tipped or given a chance in early market indicators. It can begin very well, and even when it doesnt it musters extremely quick. The 525 finds it out up the straight but you can almost be certain if its close to the lead at the first turn wont miss a drum. Ticket each-way.
Albion Park
Lay - Tricky Uno (Race 8, No.3) - Promising youngster who has won an astonishing 8 from 8. The interesting thing about this greyhound was he won his first 3, then obviously broke down as he had 7 months off the scene, to only come out and win 5 to make his total 8 straight. Well, I am not a believer. Outside of his last start BGC 395m which was a slick time, his other times are good without being exceptional. Tonight he steps out into a much much harder level of race, not to mention an awkward box and on top of that, he is untested at 520m. Too many unknowns for me to take a short price, and the black sheep punters will ensure it starts a favourite. Go wide.
Best - Yikes (Race 9, No.1) - In what Paul Dolan has tipped Side Cutter a special in, I am flabbergasted any tipster could possible entertain the idea of tipping anything outside of Yikes, let alone making it a special!!!!!!! With that being said, if it gets rolled I will look like a big douchebag, but I cant see this field possibly stopping this dog from Box 1. Anchor in all your bets.
Value - Carlingford Frost (Race 7, No.2) - This greyhound has not been beginning as good as it can, and tonight I think it can atone. Its form behind Count the Dough, Lettuce Whistle and Miss Jersey is pretty handy and prior to that was placed behind Brisbane Cup finalist Vorificious. I think they will send this dog out huge odds, and I am quietly confident (shhh dont tell many people).
Cranbourne
Lay - Octane Spark (Race 9, No.5) - This Peter Giles trained speedster is stepping out into its hardest test to date against some really talented Cranbourne specialists. Sandwiched in box 5 as well as the fact that he hasnt come back since his SAT trial at Cranbourne, I feel this is a certain lay.
Best - Mid City Angel (Race 8, No.7) - PB of 30.07, Box 7, 2 empty boxes inside of her, very slow beginner outside of her. Lack of form dogs in the race. Special of the entire day and all cards. Not sure how short she will start, but for all quaddie, DD and exotics anchors, this is it
Value - Phelan Ready (Race 5, No.5) - Another greyhound with not the best strike rate in the world. However, has been racing against the likes of Nelly Bale and such who would start short favourite here. Dicey beginner but can find the line hard and you definetly want a strong dog to run the Cranbourne track. Be wary, but definetly include in multiples.
Gawler
Lay - Flying May (Race 5, No.1) - Won its last 3 in "respectable fashion" but against a bunch of cats to be frank. Today it steps out against dogs who have been racing against the likes of Beer Time, Springvale Dash and Vain Dakota. This will truely be an acid test today as its past two wins APK haven't been in any decent time. I'd be desperate as a bookie to lay this and id be looking to jump on Loxodrome.
Best - Playboy Passion (Race 2, No.2) - Purely for lack of finding anything else more of a lock this looks a pretty good thing in the 2nd maiden. Based on its 31.49 win, if it runs upto that time, it will win. Simple as that.
Value - 2 runners today
Redrock Star (Race 7, No.1) - Slow beginner who rattles home at the end of races. Suited more to the Gawler track as opposed to A.P where it raced first up from a spell. Look for it to be hammering home when it matters.
Blossom Star (Race 8, No.7) - Ironically, I could copy and paste description from above. Both have similiar racing patterns. He is third up from a short break and both runs this time in have been ultra encouraging. Ready to put best paw forward. Each way.
Launceston
Lay - Could not advise a lay for the meeting.
Best - Will do Well (Race 9, No.1) - Talented maiden dog who had no luck on debut when leader ran a scorching 26.30. The winner will only need to run 26.8 to take out this maiden and has shown lots of early promise and speed, so from the good draw, should just about win.
Value - Ridicule (Race 4, No.3) - Talented speedster who always gets sent out huge prices. Probably not huge today but definetly will be each-way value. Shows alot of dash early in its races and this set up its good results. Take it on its run 2 starts back when only beaten by 2.75l by superstar Tassie chaser, Topline Doovee. He starts $1.20 in a race like this. Definite show.
Wentworth Park
No time for Wentworth Tonight altho one of my favourite young dogs is racing in Race 2, No.7 - Low Self Esteem. Pay to follow.
GL
Outlay - $2600
Return - $2540
Profit - $60 (-2.3%)
Geelong
Lay - Like Noah (Race 7, No.6) - The watchdog has him installed a $3.60fav which seems a bit rich. Only win in 6 starts came in an extremely moderate maiden field. Form outside of that is bad. This is only a half stake G5 race, but there are a few others I would be taking before him. Clear top pick for me in this race in Sam Winchester. Struggled into 3rd spot, fading on his run. Was the benefitory of carnage on the home str8 allowing him to rail up and sneak a place.
Best - Cool Runnings (Race 1, No.4) - Don't need to wait long to see how the week is going to start. In what looks a winnable race, this greyhound won a qualy at Ballarat in a very good time for first look. No luck in the Qualy final and should have too much dash here. Only query is first starter and box 8. Rate him clearly on top and best of the card. Came out ordinary, tried to make ground and got polaxed. Could of made it's own luck but I've learnt my lesson. Dont label maidens best bets
Value - Son of Senna (Race 5, No.1) - I am not an advocate of backing dogs trained by Jason Formosa as he has probably the worst strike rate in greyhound racing, however this dog looks well suited today. Its form at Warnambool on times looks much much better than the numberic form shows. It has drawn the red box and could record its 6th win of its career at good odds. Came out well, held the fence and was far too strong in the run to the line. Juicy odds, $8.10W/$2.90p.
Shepparton
Abandoned! - Excessive heat.
Richmond
Lay - Pigeon Flyer (Race 10, No.5) - Quoted a 2/1 chance and tipped on top by the HotDog form. This greyhound has won since but will only beshown on TAB outlet form guides I believe. This greyhound is a pure front running dog and cant come from behind and with speed inside of him, Id prefer to be on Saint Dora at each-way odds then this one. Box 5 is a death trap at Richmond. It also steps upto a mixed 4/5. Too much against this youngster to take the shorts.
Best - Ace Sabatini (Race 3, No.2) - Class act who drops in class here significantly and is never far away. Stint in Victoria when never really fired up. Ultra strong dog who will be suited to the Richmond 618m. Rattled home into 3rd last start over the 618m which again does not show up on the form guide. That was race was won by Zambola Bale who outgunned Bluey Tadmore, 5 times harder than this line up. 7 runners suits and drawn close to the fence. Form guide has him not tipped in top 4, and a $17.00. That is highly highly ambitious. I will be happy with a quarter of that.
Value - Moonshine Party (Race 9, No.5) - In what looks like a very open race, this dog stood out as a value runner that has not been tipped or given a chance in early market indicators. It can begin very well, and even when it doesnt it musters extremely quick. The 525 finds it out up the straight but you can almost be certain if its close to the lead at the first turn wont miss a drum. Ticket each-way.
Albion Park
Lay - Tricky Uno (Race 8, No.3) - Promising youngster who has won an astonishing 8 from 8. The interesting thing about this greyhound was he won his first 3, then obviously broke down as he had 7 months off the scene, to only come out and win 5 to make his total 8 straight. Well, I am not a believer. Outside of his last start BGC 395m which was a slick time, his other times are good without being exceptional. Tonight he steps out into a much much harder level of race, not to mention an awkward box and on top of that, he is untested at 520m. Too many unknowns for me to take a short price, and the black sheep punters will ensure it starts a favourite. Go wide.
Best - Yikes (Race 9, No.1) - In what Paul Dolan has tipped Side Cutter a special in, I am flabbergasted any tipster could possible entertain the idea of tipping anything outside of Yikes, let alone making it a special!!!!!!! With that being said, if it gets rolled I will look like a big douchebag, but I cant see this field possibly stopping this dog from Box 1. Anchor in all your bets.
Value - Carlingford Frost (Race 7, No.2) - This greyhound has not been beginning as good as it can, and tonight I think it can atone. Its form behind Count the Dough, Lettuce Whistle and Miss Jersey is pretty handy and prior to that was placed behind Brisbane Cup finalist Vorificious. I think they will send this dog out huge odds, and I am quietly confident (shhh dont tell many people).
Cranbourne
Lay - Octane Spark (Race 9, No.5) - This Peter Giles trained speedster is stepping out into its hardest test to date against some really talented Cranbourne specialists. Sandwiched in box 5 as well as the fact that he hasnt come back since his SAT trial at Cranbourne, I feel this is a certain lay.
Best - Mid City Angel (Race 8, No.7) - PB of 30.07, Box 7, 2 empty boxes inside of her, very slow beginner outside of her. Lack of form dogs in the race. Special of the entire day and all cards. Not sure how short she will start, but for all quaddie, DD and exotics anchors, this is it
Value - Phelan Ready (Race 5, No.5) - Another greyhound with not the best strike rate in the world. However, has been racing against the likes of Nelly Bale and such who would start short favourite here. Dicey beginner but can find the line hard and you definetly want a strong dog to run the Cranbourne track. Be wary, but definetly include in multiples.
Gawler
Lay - Flying May (Race 5, No.1) - Won its last 3 in "respectable fashion" but against a bunch of cats to be frank. Today it steps out against dogs who have been racing against the likes of Beer Time, Springvale Dash and Vain Dakota. This will truely be an acid test today as its past two wins APK haven't been in any decent time. I'd be desperate as a bookie to lay this and id be looking to jump on Loxodrome.
Best - Playboy Passion (Race 2, No.2) - Purely for lack of finding anything else more of a lock this looks a pretty good thing in the 2nd maiden. Based on its 31.49 win, if it runs upto that time, it will win. Simple as that.
Value - 2 runners today
Redrock Star (Race 7, No.1) - Slow beginner who rattles home at the end of races. Suited more to the Gawler track as opposed to A.P where it raced first up from a spell. Look for it to be hammering home when it matters.
Blossom Star (Race 8, No.7) - Ironically, I could copy and paste description from above. Both have similiar racing patterns. He is third up from a short break and both runs this time in have been ultra encouraging. Ready to put best paw forward. Each way.
Launceston
Lay - Could not advise a lay for the meeting.
Best - Will do Well (Race 9, No.1) - Talented maiden dog who had no luck on debut when leader ran a scorching 26.30. The winner will only need to run 26.8 to take out this maiden and has shown lots of early promise and speed, so from the good draw, should just about win.
Value - Ridicule (Race 4, No.3) - Talented speedster who always gets sent out huge prices. Probably not huge today but definetly will be each-way value. Shows alot of dash early in its races and this set up its good results. Take it on its run 2 starts back when only beaten by 2.75l by superstar Tassie chaser, Topline Doovee. He starts $1.20 in a race like this. Definite show.
Wentworth Park
No time for Wentworth Tonight altho one of my favourite young dogs is racing in Race 2, No.7 - Low Self Esteem. Pay to follow.
GL
