Poizun's Detailed Greyhound Tips (Updated Daily)

Schmucta

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#51
Flash of Light (Race 7, No.1) - Absolutely no luck at all in recent runs in much harder company than it meets here. From the red, will jump in front and run them a merry dance. Far far too classy here and the price will reflect. For multi players, I would be looking at BENJI MAGIC to find some form and claim a placing behind the winner.
I would be inclined to take on Flash Of Light today. Not sure she is a genuine stayer, seems to paddle at the end of 600, and the 650 here today may find her out. Will be very short aswell, makes me want to take her on even more.
 

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Poizun

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Thread starter #52
I would be inclined to take on Flash Of Light today. Not sure she is a genuine stayer, seems to paddle at the end of 600, and the 650 here today may find her out. Will be very short aswell, makes me want to take her on even more.

Yeah,,she is a little suspect at the trip, but really should be 8-10 lengths on the field quite quickly, and when that happens alot of dogs get disheartened chasing which is why tearaway leaders can stop and still win. The other key factor is there is literally no class outside of maybe Benji Magic who really is not racing super impressively of late. I just think today compared to what she has been up against will seem like a cake walk..time will tell..
 

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Geez Pedra was smashed like a hooker on speed 10 minutes after the sailors docked. He got himself in a winning position , ive never seen a dog go from chance to 20 lengths last so quick!. Shame it was in such a big race, would have been nice to see what he could do with only fair luck. But he does tend to find trouble in his races from out wide. It will be a different story next time he draws in.
Laura's Legacy was dissapointing, you were right it was a night she decided to give them a 20 length start. :thumbsdown:
I just watched the replay and Pedra was very very unlucky. The 9 knocked the 5 which knocked the 7 and then there was a huge chain reaction. Definetly look for improvement drawn closer to the rail. Very unlucky.

Also, saw Franquin's race and considering where he ended up based on the first turn carnage..was a super run. Definetly a dog to follow.
 

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What do you make of Shep R6 mate??
Well I have to say it surprised me last week, but it still ran a time (25.50) deserved of a heat win. With that being said, it really steps up against some super smart chasers. It has a few things in its favour.

1) Its stats at track distance is 4 starts for 1win and 2 seconds. Knows and likes the track.
2) Smart PB at the track
3) All the immediate speed seems to be drawn inside.

The negatives are:

1) Seriously up in class verse what he has been racing against
2) Never been placed from his few attempts drawn outwide and both his wins have come from box 1.
3)Needs everything to go like it did in his heat to win final.

Overall, I think its going to be a tough ask for the step up in class. Definetly put his best paw forward in his heat to show he deserved to be in the final, but will need to improve in all areas to be a factor in the final.

Hope he does win for you :)
 

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Thread starter #58
No time for tips tonight.

Cranbourne Cup Tip

Arvo's Florence - No disputing this up and coming chaser looks the goods. Drawn to perfection outwide, with the slow wide running Ultra Rumble in 8. Made the opponents look like cats in the heat and with all the FEDEX hype which I am taking no part of, I put this on top.

GL WITH PUNTING!!
 

rizzo

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#59
Well I have to say it surprised me last week, but it still ran a time (25.50) deserved of a heat win. With that being said, it really steps up against some super smart chasers. It has a few things in its favour.

1) Its stats at track distance is 4 starts for 1win and 2 seconds. Knows and likes the track.
2) Smart PB at the track
3) All the immediate speed seems to be drawn inside.

The negatives are:

1) Seriously up in class verse what he has been racing against
2) Never been placed from his few attempts drawn outwide and both his wins have come from box 1.
3)Needs everything to go like it did in his heat to win final.

Overall, I think its going to be a tough ask for the step up in class. Definetly put his best paw forward in his heat to show he deserved to be in the final, but will need to improve in all areas to be a factor in the final.

Hope he does win for you :)
Agree on all accounts. Ideally he should have drawn 1 or 2, but thats fine. The key is in the jump, if he can get there he has the pace to run them off their feet. I'd be content with an E/W bet at some nice odds.
 

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#60
Cranbourne cup

it is a very even field, there are no superstars or lid pingers. Cranbourne is a track that favours the swoopers. Good dogs can be run down, therefore im having a go at Curwen Walker. He steam rolled a good dog in Birthday Boy in his heat and likes the track, 6 wins from 11 starts.
 

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Well, Arvo's Florence ended up blowing to the hills and paying an amazing $9.10 on the tote. Ridiculous overs for a dog drawn to perfection, racing in peak form and had the quickest heat win. All the FEDEX hype was to no avail.

Both lays for Monday were sent around favourite and missed placings..Lays are about to pop over 30 in a row, keep an eye on the run.

Whistling drive all into Flash of Light would get you $4.50 on ST. Not bad for a few lock dogs. Very surprised at Whistling Drives price to be honest.

Viva Las Vegas very dissapointing even tho didnt come out that well. Joseph Bale was smashed into near even money and bombed the start which was obvious and couldnt make ground on the Shepparton track.

Stay tuned for full cap of todays races..
 

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Poizun

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Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 26th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $6600
Return - $6470

Profit - -$130 (-2%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 29

Broken Down Results of lay run
Favourite - 12
2nd Favourite - 8
3rd Favourite - 4
Other - 5

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Angle Park

Lay - Satanic Ruler (Race 2, No.6) - Ive burnt some money on this dog which charges late too much and today leave it alone. Its split times to the first marker are horrific and finds as much trouble in races as Lettuce Leaf Lad(thats saying something). It will be giving them a 10 length start again and good luck making that up at Angle Park

Best - Beer Time (Race 5, No.8) - Just looks too good on paper. $2.50 by watchdog. Wow if you get that, unload. Speed from Token Class will give it the sweetest cart accross and with no one in the field being able to get under 30.40 at best, this greyhound can go 5 lengths quicker than that. Really looks superior.

Value - Dolly's hand (Race 3, No.8) - Former Victorian dog who impressed in a few runs at Traralgon. Not a load of luck at the tough 535m Richmond in really tough company. Today it meets much much easier company. Draws a good box, and provided it has had a trial around the track and knows its way around, should be ultra prominent through out. Last 30 metres is the concern.

Sandown

Vic Breeders Maiden Series on today, so again with limited form and first starters, much too hard to correctly analyse the races.

Albion Park

Lay - Sargent Elite (Race 10, No.8) - Consistent sprinter who I believe is suited more to an inside draw than out. In a field where a few of them will run 23.00 flat on the bunny, the box will probably beat this dog, and Id prefer to lay then back as the hotdogs top rated and top picked greyhound.

Best - Tizza Lady (Race 2, No.1) - Sizzling 25.31 Ipswich winner on debut who had no luck in the final. Drawn the red over the 395m and meets one of the more moderate fields of recent times. Simply too good.

Value - On the Ball (Race 10, No.1) - In the race where I am laying the pink, I think this greyhound is due for a bit of good luck. And will receive every possible from the best draw over the sprint trip. Has been racing against the likes of Pink Character and Rickaby and none of these sprinters are of that ilk. Granted a few can hold their own, but this dog with a slow beginner in 2, is drawn to make a vast improvement on current numeric form. Go close.

The Gardens

Lay - Go Go Rock (Race 3, No.6) - Consistent performer clocking in 6 placings from 7 starts at track. Last start winner over the 272m from a draw closer to rails in ok time. Suspect over the 413m trip and meet a super handy field here and again the hotdogs top tip looks like it has met too much talent here to be competitive. Leave alone.

Best - Laurie's Placard (Race 6, No.8) - Super quick greyhound who has sizzling early and mid race pace. Drawn to perfection outwide and watch it scorch to the first marker and then put a gap on them down the back straight. Far too good.

Value - Pascaleena (Race 9, No.7) - Numeric form of 37874. Forget that. Highly talented dog who has been racing in MUCH MUCH harder than this lot. At best has scintillating box speed but tends to be found over the last 30 metres. Look for it to ping today and hopefully run them merry.
 

Poizun

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Thread starter #63
Congratulations to the connections of Pedra Branca on his debut city win last night. Tackling a much harder field than it did in the previous week, it showed very good grit and determination to crash across Womby Jet and co and the first turn and find the lead. Granted, the first split sectional was a pedestrian 5.28 as all other 9 races went 5.11-5.21, take nothing away from the winner who deserved the win and proved strong clocking a respectable 30.23?. I think it was... Unfortunately, I did not back it, but I am sure connections did. Well done :)
 

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#64
Congratulations to the connections of Pedra Branca on his debut city win last night. Tackling a much harder field than it did in the previous week, it showed very good grit and determination to crash across Womby Jet and co and the first turn and find the lead. Granted, the first split sectional was a pedestrian 5.28 as all other 9 races went 5.11-5.21, take nothing away from the winner who deserved the win and proved strong clocking a respectable 30.23?. I think it was... Unfortunately, I did not back it, but I am sure connections did. Well done :)

thanks mate beat me to the post, went down and watched him and great to see him get the win and finishing strongly, not to mention the $18.40 he payed, hope a few from the forum cleaned up because i certaintly did :D:D
 
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#65
Congratulations to the connections of Pedra Branca on his debut city win last night. Tackling a much harder field than it did in the previous week, it showed very good grit and determination to crash across Womby Jet and co and the first turn and find the lead. Granted, the first split sectional was a pedestrian 5.28 as all other 9 races went 5.11-5.21, take nothing away from the winner who deserved the win and proved strong clocking a respectable 30.23?. I think it was... Unfortunately, I did not back it, but I am sure connections did. Well done :)
Thanks Poizun, appreciate it!!!. Yeah i think the owners did ok :D. It was actually 30.21 :). Which is a very respectable time, he will go under 30.10 in the next month you mark my words!. :cool:
 

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Thread starter #66
Be very very wary about backing Elite Blue Size. It has drawn horrifically in the green with Silent Guardian outside of it..... Itll be short and I can tell you right now, id prefer to be a bookie then a punter easily...
 
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