Political Discussion part #2 - SA General Election 2018 and onwards!

Vader

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I know where they are and have been on tours at both. That being said, it was quite a while ago, yet even then the touring people indicated at both places that in the ensuing years it is hope that they will provide not only water but power to Perth and at least Wollongong.

It was believed during those times that science and technology would provide to make that possible.

Bit like the Collins Class submarines that I worked on actually.
Wollongong?

The Ord is never going to provide power to Perth. The transmission losses, combined with the cost of building the transmission line, will never make it workable. I can see the Ord providing power for the mines in the Hammersleys, and the refineries at Dampier. For all I know it probably already does. It's never going all the way to Perth.
 

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Bicks

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True to a point. I hadn't taken into account that The Australian were only going to mention their own Newspoll, not Fairfax/Ipsos.

It's still cherry picking. They still chose to focus on the good news for the Coalition, ignoring the bad news. Not exactly balanced reporting, though nobody expects balance from a Murdoch rag.

Newspoll shows no-change. Ipsos shows a 2-pt swing to Labor. Depending on which poll you prefer, it's either bad news, or very bad news, for the Coalition. They were banking on a bounce leading into the next election. At best they got nothing, at worst, Labor trumped them and sent them backwards.
LOL

A SMH sponsored Ipsos poll taken from 1200 respondents from the Marrickville/Newtown electorate doesn't fool too many. 1200 respondents......

Edit: As hard as I looked I can find no mention of Newspoll in that article you linked to either. Perhaps you could point out my oversight? Cherry picking?
 

Vader

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LOL

A SMH sponsored Ipsos poll taken from 1200 respondents from the Marrickville/Newtown electorate doesn't fool too many. 1200 respondents......
Dear God you're biased. Newspoll is unbiased, yet Ipsos takes its entire sample from Marrickville/Newtown? That's stupid, even by your low standards.
 
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Wollongong?

The Ord is never going to provide power to Perth. The transmission losses, combined with the cost of building the transmission line, will never make it workable. I can see the Ord providing power for the mines in the Hammersleys, and the refineries at Dampier. For all I know it probably already does. It's never going all the way to Perth.
Like I said this was back in the 70s or early 80s. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing.

If this was China it would be done.
 

Vader

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Newspoll result mentioned in this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...to-turn-around-turnbulls-governments-fortunes

I don't have a problem with The Australian ignoring the Fairfax/Ipsos poll, particularly given that it's been released the same day as their own Newspoll. It's only natural that they would focus on the poll which they pay for.

My issue is with the lack of balance. They're very quick to tout Shorten's poor preferred PM result. They're strangely silent on the Coalition's lack of post-budget bounce in the 2PP result.
 

Vader

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Like I said this was back in the 70s or early 80s. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing.

If this was China it would be done.
Even China wouldn't do it. The problem is Australia's unique geography. The Ord is just a hell of a long way from anywhere. Kununurra is over 3200km from Perth, no matter which route you take, and there's not a lot between the two.

I've just looked at the map. Even connecting the Ord to the Hammersley Ranges and Dampier/Karratha requires a 2000km long line. That's the equivalent of going from Adelaide to the WA border, and back again.

It's just not going to be economically feasible to connect it to the SW corner of the state.
 

Bicks

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Newspoll result mentioned in this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...to-turn-around-turnbulls-governments-fortunes

I don't have a problem with The Australian ignoring the Fairfax/Ipsos poll, particularly given that it's been released the same day as their own Newspoll. It's only natural that they would focus on the poll which they pay for.

My issue is with the lack of balance. They're very quick to tout Shorten's poor preferred PM result. They're strangely silent on the Coalition's lack of post-budget bounce in the 2PP result.
You do realise since 2015 Newspoll isn't administered by The Australian/Murdoch?

It is administered independently by Galaxy Reserach with the results published in the Australian

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/
 

Vader

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You do realise since 2015 Newspoll isn't administered by The Australian/Murdoch?

It is administered independently by Galaxy Reserach with the results published in the Australian

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/
They still pay to use it, and rarely refer to any of the other polls in any of their stories. Not much different to Fairfax/Ipsos, who rarely refer to Newspoll.
 
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Even China wouldn't do it. The problem is Australia's unique geography. The Ord is just a hell of a long way from anywhere. Kununurra is over 3200km from Perth, no matter which route you take, and there's not a lot between the two.

I've just looked at the map. Even connecting the Ord to the Hammersley Ranges and Dampier/Karratha requires a 2000km long line. That's the equivalent of going from Adelaide to the WA border, and back again.

It's just not going to be economically feasible to connect it to the SW corner of the state.
Bet 10 years ago, people would be saying that China couldn't build their own islands in the South China Sea either.
 

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Vader

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I have absolutely no problems with that dichotomy at all.

On a personal level, Shorten lost out big time. His sliminess was at its most blatant and obvious, and his personal popularity took a nose dive (with Turnbull's skyrocketing in response).

On a party level, there's little doubt that Labor came through the Budget period with an offering which was preferred by the bulk of the voting public.
 

Vader

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Aside from his Newspoll remark I can't either...

It's hard to see any of the Greens' preferences going to the Coalition. Strangely though, Odd Notion supporters seem to have an each way bet. Their preferences favour the Coalition, but the ALP get a lot more of them than you'd logically expect.

The voters are trending away from the major parties with their primary votes, but our voting system means that it still boils down to 2PP, which is why a relatively low primary vote can rise dramatically in terms of 2PP.
 

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I have absolutely no problems with that dichotomy at all.

On a personal level, Shorten lost out big time. His sliminess was at its most blatant and obvious, and his personal popularity took a nose dive (with Turnbull's skyrocketing in response).

On a party level, there's little doubt that Labor came through the Budget period with an offering which was preferred by the bulk of the voting public.
It seems Political Commentator Van Onselen sees it a little different. You know that bloke that had a spot on the SkyNews until he moved on in 2018 and is now a regular on the ABC's Insiders and the Drum, and more recently has hosted the Drum and Matter Of Fact programs.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/op...p/news-story/a05ac20fd7250fff51d321911c46fcba

Newspoll: Pressure may intensify on Bill Shorten’s leadership

In sharp contrast, the Fairfax poll has seen Labor skip further ahead since the budget, out to 54 to 46 per cent. When the respective error margins from the statistical samples are taken into account, the Coalition is either lurching towards electoral catastrophe with a two party vote as low as a tick over 43 per cent, or it could increase its slender majority with a two party election result up to nearly 51.5 per cent.
Interestingly the maximum up side error margin for the Coalition in the Fairfax poll gets the two party vote to 48.9 per cent — in other words almost exactly what Newspoll says it is.
That said, the discrepancies between the polling agencies tells us that the way the budget has been received is as clear as mud.
It’s also interesting to examine how different the net satisfaction ratings of the major party leaders are depending on the terminology of the question ask by the Newspoll and Ipsos teams. Newspoll asks those polled if they are “satisfied or dissatisfied” with the way the PM and Opposition Leader are doing their jobs. The result: a net satisfaction rating of minus 11 for Malcolm Turnbull, well ahead of Bill Shorten whose rating came in at minus 22.
The Ipsos poll asks those polled if they “approve” or “disapprove” of their performances rather than whether people are satisfied or dissatisfied. Turnbull’s net rating according to Ipsos is positive 11 whereas Shorten’s is minus 11. The Ipsos poll might have the Coalition down and out on the party vote, but Turnbull’s performance is a stand out positive. In contrast Newspoll has the parties engaged in a close dogfight, with just two percentage points separating them instead of eight, but both leaders are serious drags on the party vote (albeit Shorten significantly more so than Turnbull).
 

Vader

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It seems Political Commentator Van Onselen sees it a little different. You know that bloke that had a spot on the SkyNews until he moved on in 2018 and is now a regular on the ABC's Insiders and the Drum, and more recently has hosted the Drum and Matter Of Fact programs.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/op...p/news-story/a05ac20fd7250fff51d321911c46fcba

Newspoll: Pressure may intensify on Bill Shorten’s leadership
No, I don't watch Insiders or The Drum, and Sky TV is only marginally better than Fox News. I can't say that I've even heard of Van Onselen.

How does any of this contradict what I said?

I find it amusing that he's willing to take the Fairfax/Ipsos poll's margin of error into account, but not Newspoll's. If Fairfax's maximum up side error margin is almost the same as Newspoll's headline figure, then Newspoll's down side error margin is similarly the same as Fairfax's headline figure. Strange that Van Onselen only mentions the figure which is more positive to the Coalition.

I'm not sure that I can agree with his final conclusion either. Turnbull may have a low approval rating, but he's still rated more highly than pretty much any of the Coalition's leadership alternatives. Is he a drag, if he's widely seen by the voting public as being the Coalition's least worst option?

In contrast, I do agree that Shorten is a huge drag on Labor. As you've said repeatedly, he's Turnbull's greatest electoral asset. Unlike the Libs, the ALP do have some other alternatives who poll better than Shorten, starting with Albanese. Unfortunately, KRudd's parting gift to the ALP was a system which makes it virtually impossible to depose the leader, without losing an election first.

There's no doubt that Shorten's personal rating has taken a hit as a result of the S44 debacle. He staked his personal reputation on it, with his "rolled gold promise", only to have the HC throw it back in his face. He'd played dirty politics, and it came back to bite him big time. Shorten made Turnbull look good in contrast, which is why people suddenly felt more "satisfied" with him as PM.
 

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On news radio this morning there was an interview with the former head of newspoll.

Was very interesting, he did mention that they know that their poll (atleast when he was there) had a one and half point bias towards Labor.

So a 49/51 lead would in effect be 0.5?
 

Vader

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Imagine the ALP is they dumped Shorten for anyone. Shame they're bound by union politics to select their leaders.
Unfortunately, KRudd left the ALP with a parting gift - a rule change which makes it almost impossible to dump an underperforming leader mid-term. They have a leadership ballot after every losing election, but other than that the leader pretty much has a job for life.

The Coalition would be looking at near annihilation if Albanese was the Labor party leader. Shorten is keeping the Coalition on life support.
 

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Unfortunately, KRudd left the ALP with a parting gift - a rule change which makes it almost impossible to dump an underperforming leader mid-term. They have a leadership ballot after every losing election, but other than that the leader pretty much has a job for life.

The Coalition would be looking at near annihilation if Albanese was the Labor party leader. Shorten is keeping the Coalition on life support.
Yep. Shorten is to the Libs what Marshall was to the Labs down here.

And that was another of KRudd's brilliant ideas that flew so well around a conference table, but made life worse once released into the wild.
 

Vader

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You also have to wonder if Labor would replace him, even if they could? Regardless of his (lack of) personal popularity, he has still taken them to the lead in 32 consecutive Newspolls.

Labor dumped Bill Hayden on the eve of the 1983 election, replacing him with Bob Hawke. Hayden was famously quoted as saying that "a drover's dog" could have won that election. I guess they might have done the same with Albanese/Shorten if the KRudd rule didn't exist. I wouldn't bet on it though.
 
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I've just heard a report that the power institutions that have control of the power networks of both electricity and gas have over charged their consumers double of their tax requirements. And it isn't against the law. This is scandalous.

Perhaps there should be a Royal Commission into these price gougers and the way they set up pricing structures and any collusion should be dealt with.

Supposedly this goes back more than five years ago that when a report was presented to Martin Ferguson, who was then the energy minister, he apparently saw nothing wrong with it.
 

Vader

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I've just heard a report that the power institutions that have control of the power networks of both electricity and gas have over charged their consumers double of their tax requirements. And it isn't against the law. This is scandalous.

Perhaps there should be a Royal Commission into these price gougers and the way they set up pricing structures and any collusion should be dealt with.

Supposedly this goes back more than five years ago that when a report was presented to Martin Ferguson, who was then the energy minister, he apparently saw nothing wrong with it.
Here's a Canberra Times report on the story. No mention of it going back 5 years, or Martin Ferguson giving his approval. That's not to say this part isn't true, just that it's not mentioned in this particular report.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/po...ice-gouge-triggers-probe-20180514-p4zf7n.html
 
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Here's a Canberra Times report on the story. No mention of it going back 5 years, or Martin Ferguson giving his approval. That's not to say this part isn't true, just that it's not mentioned in this particular report.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/po...ice-gouge-triggers-probe-20180514-p4zf7n.html
Apparently this was coming from an energy ombudsman who was being interviewed about this who claims he bought this to Ferguson's attention.

The 5 years is when a review comes in the agreement.
 
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