Political Discussion part #2 - Let’s go out for 10 Big Macs at the Engadine Maccas!!

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Dec 29, 2000
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Have been hearing these kinds of ads on radio and seeing them in the papers for the last few months. As far as I know the Federal Election hasn't officially being called yet, so this clearly seems like an abuse of tax payer funds for electioneering under the guise of providing public information. Have already started to receive mailouts from the local Liberal MP, and not just the usual election related propaganda but pleas for donations and volunteers. It also feels much more obvious than previous years - I don't remember this sort of thing going on even under the Abbott and Turnbull governments. Given all the talk about the Liberal having problems with fundraising, I think Morrison will delay calling the election as long as possible to avoid having to pay for campaign costs as it seems like the party can't really afford it.

Some of the other stuff I've seen makes me think that even in safe seats the Liberals are not having great internal polling results. Last weekend had to catch the tram into the Melbourne CBD. Went through Kew and Canterbury, basically Liberal heartland and saw heaps of billboards of the Kooyong MP Frydenberg. At the last election he won with a primary vote of 58%, so you'd hardly think he'd be under any serious threat and there'd be more marginal electorates where the funds would be better spent.

Election has to be called by April 15 to ensure election in the 18th May. Half senate election is required at the least as existing senators term expires 30/6/2019.

The election will be announced after the Budget with all the sweetners from the Coalition which the ALP will be able to easily match - due to proposed changes to franking credits and negative gearing changes.
 

Thegibbsgamble

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Have been hearing these kinds of ads on radio and seeing them in the papers for the last few months. As far as I know the Federal Election hasn't officially being called yet, so this clearly seems like an abuse of tax payer funds for electioneering under the guise of providing public information. Have already started to receive mailouts from the local Liberal MP, and not just the usual election related propaganda but pleas for donations and volunteers. It also feels much more obvious than previous years - I don't remember this sort of thing going on even under the Abbott and Turnbull governments. Given all the talk about the Liberal having problems with fundraising, I think Morrison will delay calling the election as long as possible to avoid having to pay for campaign costs as it seems like the party can't really afford it.

Some of the other stuff I've seen makes me think that even in safe seats the Liberals are not having great internal polling results. Last weekend had to catch the tram into the Melbourne CBD. Went through Kew and Canterbury, basically Liberal heartland and saw heaps of billboards of the Kooyong MP Frydenberg. At the last election he won with a primary vote of 58%, so you'd hardly think he'd be under any serious threat and there'd be more marginal electorates where the funds would be better spent.

Liberals know they will be decimated. Shorten already being briefed by government staff. Business preferring to talk to shorten before government.
 
Jun 7, 2011
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The Labor government up here doing its darndest to make a 2 person opposition a viable alternative come the next election. This is a very interesting read in the NT News. This is leaked conversation among some backbenchers, 2 were kicked out of caucus and subsequently quit the party. You can really feel their frustration and isolation.

https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/nort...h/news-story/6651f3435bb9f839beaa8262337851dc
 
Oct 21, 2012
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LOL

And the LNP are the first to ever do this?....you really need to get a grip, both major parties have been doing it under the guise of public information for as long as I've been voting. Both are equally to blame.

After an election is announced, I have no issue with political advertising being ramped up.

If you’d actually read and comprehended what I said before immediately jumping to your usual knee-jerk hysterics, you would have noted that I didn’t recall this kind of thing happening under Abbott/Turnbull Governments leading up to the last election. Because you may possibly be too slow to understand what I am trying to do, I would also extend that observation to the Gillard/Rudd government, as well as going back to Howard and Keating government as examples of governments who didn’t blatantly start advertising well before the election was announced. Also note that these governments made changes to allow MPs to spend their allowances on election spending either.

To put it in very simple terms that even you might be able understand, what is happening now with advertising under Morrison’s government appears to be very different from Abbott/Turnbull, Gillard, Rudd, Howard and Keating government. You will note that I am actually comparing previous Labor AND Liberal governments favourably to the current one. You appear to lack the requisite intellectual capacity and maturity to realise this, but not everyone here is simply barracking for one side. I am more than happy to criticise poor action by any government, but sadly it seems you are clearly too sensitive and heavily invested in your precious Coalition to call out bad policy or actions and have some primitive urge to immediately deflect to something Labor may have done.

Now, looking at your argument that something bad has been done previously is honestly a pretty stupid one as it ignores the issue relating to the problem itself. Your argument is the equivalent of a kid being caught sneaking a chocolate bar before dinner, and they try and get out of it by blaming their sibling for doing the same before, except the excuse given is "Labor/Liberals did it too." Unfortunately this is representative of a lot of what is wrong with the quality of Australian politics and political debate presented in media.
 
Dec 29, 2000
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WOW

The 'Progessive' Sydney Morning Herald anointing the Coalition their favoured candidate for the NSW Electional, don't expect that will go down well with a fair swathe of their readership.



Well given it requires a swing of 4.32% to ALP to be even at 50/50 then I'm not sure why this is unexpected.

What I'll be more interested is the federal election. If the majority of papers favour the LNP well it just shows how in bed they are given the total and utter uselessness of the current incumbents. They have done stuff all over 6 years and been lazy.
 
Dec 29, 2000
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Have been hearing these kinds of ads on radio and seeing them in the papers for the last few months. As far as I know the Federal Election hasn't officially being called yet, so this clearly seems like an abuse of tax payer funds for electioneering under the guise of providing public information. Have already started to receive mailouts from the local Liberal MP, and not just the usual election related propaganda but pleas for donations and volunteers. It also feels much more obvious than previous years - I don't remember this sort of thing going on even under the Abbott and Turnbull governments. Given all the talk about the Liberal having problems with fundraising, I think Morrison will delay calling the election as long as possible to avoid having to pay for campaign costs as it seems like the party can't really afford it.

Some of the other stuff I've seen makes me think that even in safe seats the Liberals are not having great internal polling results. Last weekend had to catch the tram into the Melbourne CBD. Went through Kew and Canterbury, basically Liberal heartland and saw heaps of billboards of the Kooyong MP Frydenberg. At the last election he won with a primary vote of 58%, so you'd hardly think he'd be under any serious threat and there'd be more marginal electorates where the funds would be better spent.

Don't think it has been effective either given it refers to the Australian Government and not specifically the LNP. The Australian public is pretty stupid and won't connect the two until the campaign starts.
 

brucetiki

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Nov 7, 2002
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Colour me shocked that Labor right managed to throw away a win by trying to lurch further to the right, and failing spectacularly when Murdoch drops a dime on them in the final week.

It remains an Auspol maxim: the NSW branch is always the worst branch, government and party, state and federal.
 

Thegibbsgamble

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Oct 28, 2017
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After an election is announced, I have no issue with political advertising being ramped up.

If you’d actually read and comprehended what I said before immediately jumping to your usual knee-jerk hysterics, you would have noted that I didn’t recall this kind of thing happening under Abbott/Turnbull Governments leading up to the last election. Because you may possibly be too slow to understand what I am trying to do, I would also extend that observation to the Gillard/Rudd government, as well as going back to Howard and Keating government as examples of governments who didn’t blatantly start advertising well before the election was announced. Also note that these governments made changes to allow MPs to spend their allowances on election spending either.

To put it in very simple terms that even you might be able understand, what is happening now with advertising under Morrison’s government appears to be very different from Abbott/Turnbull, Gillard, Rudd, Howard and Keating government. You will note that I am actually comparing previous Labor AND Liberal governments favourably to the current one. You appear to lack the requisite intellectual capacity and maturity to realise this, but not everyone here is simply barracking for one side. I am more than happy to criticise poor action by any government, but sadly it seems you are clearly too sensitive and heavily invested in your precious Coalition to call out bad policy or actions and have some primitive urge to immediately deflect to something Labor may have done.

Now, looking at your argument that something bad has been done previously is honestly a pretty stupid one as it ignores the issue relating to the problem itself. Your argument is the equivalent of a kid being caught sneaking a chocolate bar before dinner, and they try and get out of it by blaming their sibling for doing the same before, except the excuse given is "Labor/Liberals did it too." Unfortunately this is representative of a lot of what is wrong with the quality of Australian politics and political debate presented in media.
this is truth.
 
Dec 29, 2000
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Nup, in terms even you may be able to comprehend they've all done exactly the same, Abbott, Turnbull, Gillard, Rudd, Howard, Keating, Hawke, it's been going on for decades. Strange you've only just noticed it, it has **** all to do whether it's Liberal or Labor they've all done it.

Nup, going on for decades? Well if that means the last 20 years, then yes.

It has defnitely been happening since Howard then Rudd/Gillard then Abbott/Turnbull. Morriscum has taken it to a whole new level.
 
Dec 29, 2000
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Haha, the only Liberal to lose a seat in the NSW election Bruce Notley-Smith [Coogee] had Turnbull campaigning for him...what hope did the poor bugger have with an insipid campaigner like Turnbull campaigning for him.

https://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/5970462/daley-loses-but-celebrates-coogee-win/



Be interested to know your thoughts on the implications of the NSW election (if there are any) on the upcoming federal poll.

Personally, the federal poll won't be won in NSW metro, Victoria and WA will see to that.

Nationals may lose a number of rural NSW seats to independents as well plus Abbott to lose his seat.

PS : An astonishing result at the Menindee City Hall booth of the 267 votes cast, only 7 for the National Party - that has to hurt and might be a forerunner for the federal poll
 
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As far as the Libs go, there probably isn't a lot to be learned. Gladys has led a government which is delivering on infrastructure, and which has (for the most part) been reasonably competent. It's also been stable, which is a huge selling point, and it's not ideologically driven. Yes, she's screwed up on the Local Government mergers, the Greyhound ban, and the Stadia. On balance though, the state is ticking along nicely. Most Governments get voted out, and she's done well enough that most voters weren't upset enough to turf her out.

Labor did a great job of shooting themselves in the foot in the last week of the election, with Daley fluffing his lines at the debate, and the emergence of his comments about Asians with PhDs. In an election that was expected to be extremely close, that was enough for voters to decide they didn't want him as Premier. I think they made the right decision.

Most of Gladys's positives are negatives when it comes to the Feds. Stability is a positive for her, it's a negative for the Feds. A centrist non-ideological government is a positive for her, it's a massive negative for the Feds. Not upsetting the voters is a positive for her, it's a massive negative for the Feds. Having a racist & incompetent Opposition Leader was a positive for her, the Federal Libs have no such luck.

Things are very different when it comes to the Nats... The SFF easily held Orange, and took 2 more seats off them in the Murray/Darling electorates. The NSW Government's outright corruption in allowing the deliberate theft of water from the river contributed massively to the Nats' vote collapsing. I can see that dissatisfaction being replicated in the Federal Election.
 
Probably wouldn't have mattered much either way, but having already slipped from cultural stagnation into cultural decline, that's only going to accelerate as young people leave Sydney for the brighter lights of Melbourne, and if we're lucky maybe even some to Adelaide as well. NSW is certainly going to take the retirement state title from us in the immediate future, as Sydney is going to be largely reduced to Boomers in one of their investment properties, and the financial services sector workers who can afford to rent the rest.
 
Dec 29, 2000
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The one other thing is OPV (Optional Preferential Voting). It probably cost the ALP one seat - East Hills. Minor party vote was 17.1% of which 19% had second preference to Libs and 25% to ALP with the balance 56% exhausting (no second preference). Given Libs only winning by 2.5% currently, OPV possible cost them a seat which meant Libs would in all likelihood be a minority government.

It also enable Nationals to retain Dubbo.

There won't be OPV in the federal election, not that it will make a difference.

I see Morriscum is going about something costing $9k per year extra - and how much is a roast going to cost, $100-, $200-, $500-? How stupid will the Australian public be to fall for these stunts and shrill?
 

Carmo

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SA powered by 80% renewables in the last 24 hrs, price not too bad either, 95.05 in the second graphic is SA, from the AEMO page


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Dec 29, 2000
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Probably wouldn't have mattered much either way, but having already slipped from cultural stagnation into cultural decline, that's only going to accelerate as young people leave Sydney for the brighter lights of Melbourne, and if we're lucky maybe even some to Adelaide as well. NSW is certainly going to take the retirement state title from us in the immediate future, as Sydney is going to be largely reduced to Boomers in one of their investment properties, and the financial services sector workers who can afford to rent the rest.

I detest Sydney. They should be thankful they have a good harbour otherwise it would have nothing else going for it.
 

Carmo

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Re the NSW result, NSW has not been one of the states to revolt strongly against the govt. It has a meager 1.9% swing against, versus 4-6% for other states.

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Dec 29, 2000
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Re the NSW result, NSW has not been one of the states to revolt strongly against the govt. It has a meager 1.9% swing against, versus 4-6% for other states.

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The federal Election will be won in Victoria and WA. Not as keen on Qld as it has always been a tough state for the ALP, even when Rudd was leader.

The LNP actually have to win seats to retain government. They won't be able to cover their losses (likely to lose Robertson and Gilmore in NSW). Especially if Independents win in seats like Warringah (Abbott), Cowper (Oakeshott) and any other rural seat in NSW.
 
Dec 29, 2000
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Dec 29, 2000
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Dec 29, 2000
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None at all, the NSW Nats and to a lesser degree the Libs lost country NSW because of trying to close down greyhound racing in the state, it's no secret then NSW Nationals leader Troy Grant was the main instigator of that move along with then Lib leader Mike Baird. The end game was the procurement of Wentworth Park , prime inner city land for the big developers, the problem they had was greyhound racing had a water tight lease for a further 30 years or so. Greyhound racing is very strong in country NSW and resulted in the LNP losing the seat of Orange at the last election with most of the votes bleeding to the SFFP, and once again Phil Donato for the SFFP held the seat of Orange once a NP stronghold. Baird and Grant both gone because of their complicity in trying to shut down greyhound racing.

Just to refute this - nothing to do with greyhounds but nice try.

https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election...lp-and-you-didn-t-listen-20190325-p517d6.html
 
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