Play Nice Politics # 4 - The madness continues here.....

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[mistylake]

So given we have sufficient of the vaccine now and over the next few months to cover the population, should we just open the borders 1st December, and if you haven’t had both injections by then well tough luck?

Essentially yes.
If supply is adequate the imperative is on the population to actively protect themselves or take that risk.

 

[mistylake]

Where’s my bloody doughnuts .

 

[mistylake]

I don't want to prolong this too much, but from that ABC article, that 1.5m figure is an estimate. According to CSL, they have already supplied 4m doses, and are producing 1m per week. Beforehand, there were overseas supplies of AZ and Pfizer, but it's difficult to get numbers on those. Something doesn't quite add up somewhere.

Anyway, CSL are not lying, and they are supplying 1m per week, so it would only take 17 weeks or so to adminster 2 doses of AZ to all over-50s, and much less than that to over-70s. This is not really a problem. The real problem remains: when will we get a pile of Pfizer?

Why do you feel entitled to Pfizer? Over all your other B1 cohort which includes my ma and pa in their late 70’s. They and all their friends had AZ happily as I did. If you were under 50 ok that’s the direction the government has taken (don’t think many other countries have gone this way) but it smacks of some kind of exceptionalism. The only acceptable reason would be a history of vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia.

 

[Slippery Pete]

So given we have sufficient of the vaccine now and over the next few months to cover the population, should we just open the borders 1st December, and if you haven’t had both injections by then well tough luck?

Everybody should have the choice whether or not to take the vaccine and that choice should not in any way impact on any of their freedoms, pursuits or ability to live their life and/or travel. So if that is the premise of your question, then the answer is yes. Make it available, give everyone the chance to get it, and then get the * on with life. This whole thing is absolutely farcical, and there is no longer any goodwill among the population for this bullshit.

 

[BRL121]

Why do you feel entitled to Pfizer? Over all your other B1 cohort which includes my ma and pa in their late 70’s. They and all their friends had AZ happily as I did. If you were under 50 ok that’s the direction the government has taken (don’t think many other countries have gone this way) but it smacks of some kind of exceptionalism. The only acceptable reason would be a history of vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia.

Well, Vader and I are exceptional, and I have documentary evidence to prove that, but that's not important or relevant right now!

I don't feel "entitled'' to Pfizer, but I will have it, and I am prepared to wait until sufficient supplies arrive. It's not up to you or the government what an "acceptable" reason is. Simply, I judge Pfizer to be the superior vaccine, both based on the clotting problem you mentioned, and more particularly the greater effectiveness against vaccine variants. Both of these facts are clearly set out on the TGA website. I and your parents would have originally expected to receive Pfizer, rather than AZ, prior to the about-face to the rollout due to the clotting problem.

Basically, the government weasel-words are that Pfizer is now the "preferred" vaccine for under-50s: in reality they have forbidden it for over-50s. Nevertheless, all the government members (but not the governor-general) have had Pfizer, jumping the queue. This is a political and financial bullying decision to foist AZ on the most vulnerable. It's not good enough, and I'm prepared to wait under the current conditions, as is my right,
and clearly I'm far from alone.

 

[rocket18]

Except that there are safer and more effective options out there - and people just need to wait a while for them to become available, with almost zero risk of dying (from COVID) in the interval.

Compared to Pfizer, AZ is neither particularly safe, nor particularly effective (against the variants - particularly the South African variant). Why on earth would you opt for the vaccine which is less effective and less safe, if there wasn't some short-term imperative involved? You are a special case, because you have a short-term need due to your trip to Indonesia. Anyone without that short-term imperative would have to be batshit crazy to get AZ pumped into their arm.

Won't this be an ongoing vaccination requirement (for those who want) "booster" shot - like the yearly flu jab?

If the AZ is truly ineffective against different strains why can't you just get another sort of vaccine next year?

The whole of the UK are getting the AZ jab so you claim of it being edit:not particularly safe seems a bit of stretch.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I didn't say that at all - I assume you just misinterpreted my previous post.

I said that the chances of dying from AZ are higher than they are for dying of COVID in Australia - which is blindingly obvious, given that the number of cases in the Australian community in the last month can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

The odds of dying once you have COVID are obviously much higher, as is the risk of dying of COVID in countries where COVID is active in the community - but there is no COVID active in the community in Australia, so the chances of dying from it here are essentially zero.

The chances of an average Australian catching COVID right now is roughly 1 in 5,000,000 (~5 community cases in the last month, from a population of 25 million). It's actually lower than that, as most of those "community cases" were only 1 link away from the quarantine system - and most people are further away than that. The chances of said person dying of COVID right now is roughly 1 in 250,000,000 (assuming fatality rate of 2%). The chances of dying of AZ blood clots is a lot higher than that.

No, the chances from dying from COVID are still far higher than dying from COVAX... even right now.

But this isn't just about the right now, it's about getting back to normality.

To open back up to the world, we need to vaccinate those at risk & anyone else who wants COVAX so we can get back to normality.

By opening back up we will risk community infection, but if the vulnerable are vaccinated, we have minimised the risk.

The fact remains that the risk of dying form COVAX is minuscule compared to dying from COVID. The number of deaths both in Australia & worldwide speak for themselves. It's not even close... so your statement, even with caveats is BS.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Well, Vader and I are exceptional, and I have documentary evidence to prove that, but that's not important or relevant right now!

I don't feel "entitled'' to Pfizer, but I will have it, and I am prepared to wait until sufficient supplies arrive. It's not up to you or the government what an "acceptable" reason is. Simply, I judge Pfizer to be the superior vaccine, both based on the clotting problem you mentioned, and more particularly the greater effectiveness against vaccine variants. Both of these facts are clearly set out on the TGA website. I and your parents would have originally expected to receive Pfizer, rather than AZ, prior to the about-face to the rollout due to the clotting problem.

Basically, the government weasel-words are that Pfizer is now the "preferred" vaccine for under-50s: in reality they have forbidden it for over-50s. Nevertheless, all the government members (but not the governor-general) have had Pfizer, jumping the queue. This is a political and financial bullying decision to foist AZ on the most vulnerable. It's not good enough, and I'm prepared to wait under the current conditions, as is my right,
and clearly I'm far from alone.

There is a 25% higher chance of getting blood clots from AZ v Pfizer.

AZ - 5 out of a million - 0.0005%
Pfizer 4 out of a million - 0.0004%

Dying from COVID is around 2% if you are infected.

You do the maths!

 

[Slippery Pete]

Dying from COVID is around 2%.

2% of Covid cases end in death? Is that what you’re saying?

That’s obviously wrong

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

2% of Covid cases end in death? Is that what you’re saying?

That’s obviously wrong

No, it correct - 2% worldwide covid cases ended in death.

In Australia, its actually higher at 3%... probably because other countries are not recording properly. Eg. China

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Essentially yes.
If supply is adequate the imperative is on the population to actively protect themselves or take that risk.

Agreed, once everyone has had the opportunity to vaccinate themselves, we open back up.

 

[Slippery Pete]

No, it correct - 2% worldwide covid cases ended in death.

In Australia, its actually higher at 3%... probably because other countries are not recording properly. Eg. China

There’s no way everybody who’s had it has been tested.

There’s also the issue of dying with it versus dying of it, and you’d have to believe in unicorns to believe those two figures haven’t been merged into one at various times.

Honestly, common sense revolts at that figure of 2-3%. A healthy person under a certain age does not have a 3 in 100 chance of dying, not even close.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

There’s no way everybody who’s had it has been tested.

There’s also the issue of dying with is versus dying of it.

Honestly, common sense revolts at that figure of 2-3%. A healthy person under a certain age does not have a 3 in 100 chance of dying, not even close.

There would be under reporting of both infections & deaths, but Australia's reporting is likely to be around the mark & its a 3% death rate.

You can talk it down all you want... but the reality is we would have carnage if we had significant community infection.

Hence why I have been saying vaccinating the vulnerable is the current priority & it's not helped by the media & others on here peddling BS about problems with COVAX... which are minuscule compared to the risk of COVID.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Not yet, there isn't. There's definitely an issue with slow uptake of AZ (understandably so), but even so, AZ stocks aren't yet sufficient for fully vaccinating everyone aged 50+. Not even close.

There is no problem with a supply of AZ stocks.

There is more a problem with the BS being peddled about COVAX such that a third don't want to be vaccinated because they don't understand the risk of COVAX is minuscule compared to the risk of COVID.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

There’s no way everybody who’s had it has been tested.

There’s also the issue of dying with it versus dying of it, and you’d have to believe in unicorns to believe those two figures haven’t been merged into one at various times.

Honestly, common sense revolts at that figure of 2-3%. A healthy person under a certain age does not have a 3 in 100 chance of dying, not even close.

I posted the risks of dying from covid by age twice already on this thread.

Those over 60 are at significant risk.

Those are the facts.

So as a total population, 3% are at risk, but its less than 0.5% risk for those under 50.

Hence we need to prioritise those over 60 & with health issues.

 

[mistylake]

The a-hole

‘I no longer feel like Australia is my home’: The people quitting our shores — The Sydney Morning Herald

The federal budget predicts the loss of 174,000 people by mid next year as a result of Australia travel bans.

apple.news

 

[BRL121]

There is a 25% higher chance of getting blood clots from AZ v Pfizer.

AZ - 5 out of a million - 0.0005%
Pfizer 4 out of a million - 0.0004%

Dying from COVID is around 2% if you are infected.

You do the maths!

I thought you said you knew what you were talking about.

The study from which you are getting your odds cautions against inferring anything about the performance of one vaccine vs. another due to low numbers, and is also subject to conflict of interest since it's associated with Oxford. It is also just referring to "blood clots" in general, rather than the dangerous VITT. In fact, the US authorities report that there have been zero cases of VITT reported after 180m vaccinations with Pfizer!
Furthermore, the TGA website details the VITT problem with AZ, but not for Pfizer. It also specifically mentions the good performance of Pfizer against other variants, but does not mention this for AZ. Elsewhere, I have seen a figure of only 10% reported for AZ's effectiveness against the South African strain.

You also refuse to acknowledge the validity of Vader's figures relevant to the current situation in Australia, simply reiterating the tired party line of the overall death rates from COVID vs. AZ, with no intellectual application to the current situation. Where is your consideration of the likelihood of infection with COVID in today's Australia? Elsewhere you uncritically cite the total number of COVID deaths vs. VITT deaths, as if that is relevant.
If you want to use this metric, in 2021, the relevant period for comparison with vaccination, there has been 1 COVID death and 1 VITT death: so much for the chance of dying being miles greater from COVID, small figures notwithstanding.

You do the maths!

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I thought you said you knew what you were talking about.

The study from which you are getting your odds cautions against inferring anything about the performance of one vaccine vs. another due to low numbers, and is also subject to conflict of interest since it's associated with Oxford. It is also just referring to "blood clots" in general, rather than the dangerous VITT. In fact, the US authorities report that there have been zero cases of VITT reported after 180m vaccinations with Pfizer!
Furthermore, the TGA website details the VITT problem with AZ, but not for Pfizer. It also specifically mentions the good performance of Pfizer against other variants, but does not mention this for AZ. Elsewhere, I have seen a figure of only 10% reported for AZ's effectiveness against the South African strain.

You also refuse to acknowledge the validity of Vader's figures relevant to the current situation in Australia, simply reiterating the tired party line of the overall death rates from COVID vs. AZ, with no intellectual application to the current situation. Where is your consideration of the likelihood of infection with COVID in today's Australia? Elsewhere you uncritically cite the total number of COVID deaths vs. VITT deaths, as if that is relevant.
If you want to use this metric, in 2021, the relevant period for comparison with vaccination, there has been 1 COVID death and 1 VITT death: so much for the chance of dying being miles greater from COVID, small figures notwithstanding.

You do the maths!

So provide me the simple percentages...

Chances of dying from covid.

Chances of dying from covax - either AZ or Pfizer.

Quantity posting doesn't equal quality posting!

 

[BRL121]

I posted the risks of dying from covid by age twice already on this thread.

Those over 60 are at significant risk.

Those are the facts.

So as a total population, 3% are at risk, but its less than 0.5% risk for those under 50.

Hence we need to prioritise those over 60 & with health issues.

Correct, but providing you have been infected.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Correct, but providing you have been infected.

Indeed, which i mentioned when I posted the %'s.

 

[BRL121]

So provide me the simple percentages...

Chances of dying from covid.

Chances of dying from covax - either AZ or Pfizer.

Quantity posting doesn't equal quality posting!

I'll take that as a null reponse.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I'll take that as a null reponse.

So you are refusing to answer my questions or debunk the %'s I posted because it's crystal clear that the chances from dying from covid are far, far, far far greater than dying from covax.

Only an idiot would deny this is the case

But then we have the media freaking the public & government out that AZ risks blood clots, when the chances are nearly just as remote as Pfizer... so the government change & slow the whole covax rollout based on misinformation.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Hence we need to prioritise those over 60 & with health issues.

Agreed. But once it’s been offered to every Australian, it’s time to open the international borders. Not just for vaccinated people. For every. Single. Australian. Period.

 

[Vader]

Won't this be an ongoing vaccination requirement (for those who want) "booster" shot - like the yearly flu jab?

If the AZ is truly ineffective against different strains why can't you just get another sort of vaccine next year?

The whole of the UK are getting the AZ jab so you claim of it being edit:not particularly safe seems a bit of stretch.

Yes, it will require an annual booster. That's still not a valid reason for getting that AZ muck injected into your body at any stage.

 

[Vader]

There is a 25% higher chance of getting blood clots from AZ v Pfizer.

AZ - 5 out of a million - 0.0005%
Pfizer 4 out of a million - 0.0004%

Dying from COVID is around 2% if you are infected.

You do the maths!

2% if you're infected... but only a 1 in 5,000,000 chance of being infected in Australia at present.

There are basically 2 options:
1 - Get AZ now. 1:100,000 risk of dying from blood clots.
2 - Wait 6 months & get Pfizer once it's widely available. That's a 1:40,000,000 chance of catching & dying from COVID in the next 6 months (while unvaccinated), followed by a 0 risk of dying from blood clots after getting Pfizer.

You tell me which is the lower risk option - and explain to me why any sane person would choose option #1, without a pressing short-term need for vaccination (e.g. mistylake travelling to Indonesia).