Politics Betting Thread 2020

Remove this Banner Ad

checkraiseulite

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2010
4,632
2,964
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Err wut? The last election polls predicted the popular vote almost perfectly - it was just out in a few states which happened to be enough for Trump to win the electoral college.
the polls for who would win the presidency and not the popular vote were way off.

seems there is some debate about the “shy trump” effect with conflicting studies.

my own opinion is it’s definitely a thing and polling will always favour left wing candidates, at least in the current political climate.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,064
7,177
AFL Club
Collingwood
the polls for who would win the presidency and not the popular vote were way off.

seems there is some debate about the “shy trump” effect with conflicting studies.

my own opinion is it’s definitely a thing and polling will always favour left wing candidates, at least in the current political climate.
Trump could get 40 percent of the votes and still win. Thats why its dangerous to bet on this. Polling is going the same as last time, if you could bet on pure votes i would put the line at Biden plus 5 million but that still doesn't guarantee a Biden win
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
35,029
27,642
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
the polls for who would win the presidency and not the popular vote were way off.

seems there is some debate about the “shy trump” effect with conflicting studies.

my own opinion is it’s definitely a thing and polling will always favour left wing candidates, at least in the current political climate.
This is complete and utterly false as I just pointed out - feel free to point out otherwise. Most thought there was around a 30% chance Trump could win the presidency. That is not 'way off'. As I said - the popular vote was predicted almost perfectly by the polls.

But trusting your 'opinion' over factual evidence does seem to be all the rage these days
 

checkraiseulite

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2010
4,632
2,964
AFL Club
Hawthorn
As I said - the popular vote was predicted almost perfectly by the polls.

But trusting your 'opinion' over factual evidence does seem to be all the rage these days
i can’t be bothered to dig but i’m almost certain the polls weren’t as accurate as you seem to think they were.

feel free to show me some factual evidence and i may admit i was/am wrong.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
35,029
27,642
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd

checkraiseulite

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2010
4,632
2,964
AFL Club
Hawthorn

And the bigger the lead we forecast for Trump, the more he outperformed his polls.2 In the average state won by Trump, the polls missed by an average of 7.4 percentage points (in either direction); in Clinton states, they missed by an average of 3.7 points.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
35,029
27,642
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
And the bigger the lead we forecast for Trump, the more he outperformed his polls.2 In the average state won by Trump, the polls missed by an average of 7.4 percentage points (in either direction); in Clinton states, they missed by an average of 3.7 points.
You didn't look at the links i sent you and the point I made did you.
 

checkraiseulite

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2010
4,632
2,964
AFL Club
Hawthorn
You didn't look at the links i sent you and the point I made did you.
the core point i made was polls undervalue trump (and other conservative options) in the context of a difference between betting markets and polls. nothing you have posted directly deals with this proposition.

the link i posted (from the same poll-friendly source)deals with it:

We emailed dozens of pollsters — the same group we’ve polled regularlysince 2014 about their work — early Wednesday for their first impressions. Nearly 20 got back to us by early afternoon.

“We may be looking at a 4-point or so national miss – which as noted in the past by FiveThirtyEight is not an insane level of error, but it is real error and the public’s right to question polls is justified,” said Nick Gourevitch of Global Strategy Group.

Several pollsters rejected the idea that Trump voters were too shy to tells pollsters whom they were supporting. But James Lee of Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. said his firm combined live-interview and automated-dialer calls, and Trump did better when voters were sharing their voting intention with a recorded voice rather than a live one.

Women who voted for Trump might have been especially reluctant to tell pollsters, said David Paleologos of Suffolk University. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll corroborated that: “Women who said they backed Trump were particularly less likely to say they would be comfortable talking to a pollster about their vote.”

Gourevitch offered a theory for why polls underestimated Trump support: “that some percentage of the Trump vote is distrustful of institutions and distrustful of poll calls.”
to say that a poll aggregator said he had a 28% chance of winning the election (on the day of the election - noting it was significant less in the immediate lead up) and that the national popular vote prediction was nearly accurate does not defeat my point and we are now arguing about nothing.

your link shows poll aggregators assessed the chance of trump losing popular vote and wing electoral college at 10.5%

if we (unfairly) multiply the implied probabilities taken from the key states (many of which polls said were not even in play) in state polling data you posted, the chance of trump winning the way he did was >100:1.

my view remains trump will do better than polls currently show for a number of reasons including the silent majority or shy trump effect. this is likely priced into betting markets explaining, to some degree, the difference.
 
Last edited:

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,948
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I am not so sure he can win anymore. Even the republicans have turned against him with factions like the Lincoln Project and others and they will get enough of the right to vote against him in the states that count. Legit 10s pop right now IMO and laying him is the way to go because i think He will come in for sure as it gets closer to the election as everyone has bad memories of the last election!
The recent dramas has given Trump the perfect "law and order" election slogan that should gain traction. Democrats are pretty much allowing looting and rioting to occur and likely to continue to cave in to hard left factions. That plus the fact that Biden is probably the worst candidate they could have put out since...Hilary Clinton. Seriously have you heard him speak when he is off the teleprompter?

So Biden probably senile and Trump is a massive narcissist who can't stop saying stupid things. Might be another surprise result.

I'm going to bet on Biden because I thing he'll win, but if he loses i'll get just as much satisfaction from watching a complete left wing snowflake meltdown. win / win.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
35,029
27,642
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
The recent dramas has given Trump the perfect "law and order" election slogan that should gain traction. Democrats are pretty much allowing looting and rioting to occur and likely to continue to cave in to hard left factions. That plus the fact that Biden is probably the worst candidate they could have put out since...Hilary Clinton. Seriously have you heard him speak when he is off the teleprompter?

So Biden probably senile and Trump is a massive narcissist who can't stop saying stupid things. Might be another surprise result.

I'm going to bet on Biden because I thing he'll win, but if he loses i'll get just as much satisfaction from watching a complete left wing snowflake meltdown. win / win.
Do tell how it is the Democrats that are allowing this to occur?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,064
7,177
AFL Club
Collingwood
The recent dramas has given Trump the perfect "law and order" election slogan that should gain traction. Democrats are pretty much allowing looting and rioting to occur and likely to continue to cave in to hard left factions. That plus the fact that Biden is probably the worst candidate they could have put out since...Hilary Clinton. Seriously have you heard him speak when he is off the teleprompter?

So Biden probably senile and Trump is a massive narcissist who can't stop saying stupid things. Might be another surprise result.

I'm going to bet on Biden because I thing he'll win, but if he loses i'll get just as much satisfaction from watching a complete left wing snowflake meltdown. win / win.
lol i dont want to get into a left right argument on a betting thread but there is nothing going to be solved by sending the "law & order" in. sh*t needs to be mediated but thats not going to happen with the idiot in charge
 

checkraiseulite

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2010
4,632
2,964
AFL Club
Hawthorn
perception is reality.

“AND THEY’RE NOT EVEN IN YET”

“WHAT WILL IT BE LIKE WHEN THEY DEFUND THE POLICE”

“WHAT ABOUT TEH REPARATIONS”

trump will thrive on the politics of division. think how dumb and angry the average american in the key states is. then remember that half are dumber and more angry than thats
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,948
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
lol i dont want to get into a left right argument on a betting thread but there is nothing going to be solved by sending the "law & order" in. sh*t needs to be mediated but thats not going to happen with the idiot in charge
Replacing a probably corrupt, probable sexual assaulter, narcissist with a probably corrupt, probable sexual assaulter and most likely near senile geriatric is likely to solve some problems while creating just as many.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,948
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Do tell how it is the Democrats that are allowing this to occur?
You see any headlines on Democrats denouncing the looting and rioting? How many people have been arrested?

In once city (probs Portland) they set up their own enclave. They are pulling down statues in the street with nothing happening. Antifa are left to run wild. Whole communities being set on fire.

Now any country should allow peaceful protest, but if there is anarchy in the streets then the police or army need to step in because alot of these businesses, communities and building are run / home to minorities anyway.
 

IKnowtheDog

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2016
7,278
6,021
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Seattle Seahawks
how did America end up having the two presidential candidates it will have in 2020
 

EDFL follower

Club Legend
Apr 16, 2007
1,307
1,190
Warragul
AFL Club
North Melbourne
This is complete and utterly false as I just pointed out - feel free to point out otherwise. Most thought there was around a 30% chance Trump could win the presidency. That is not 'way off'. As I said - the popular vote was predicted almost perfectly by the polls.

But trusting your 'opinion' over factual evidence does seem to be all the rage these days
Trump was paying About $7 On Betfair just before the last election which is about a 16 percent chance of winning.
 

maskmcgee

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2017
3,062
3,045
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
So sportsbet has a 'Trump Hub', which seems pointless, because most of them have any chance of ever happening, but not only that, they are all void on election day so Sportsbet is never going to take the money anyway.

Most ridiculous though is the winner of the first debate according to CNN poll, Biden is 2$, and as far as I'm concerned, 100% certain to win such a poll regardless of his incompetent preformance.
 

Top Bottom