Politics Betting Thread

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Chism

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thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?
This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!
 

NYRB

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I Agree that a local betting exchange wouldn't work.

But having the option of a 2nd betting exchange- a global one, can make a difference. I believe the Australian punter will get that option sooner rather than later. At the end of the day , why should the Australian consumer be limited or restricted to certain bookmakers? The clear winners here are the local Australian bookies and its a good incentive by the government to keep the Aussie money in Australia.The reality is , the bookmakers of Australia offer an inferior product, not so great odds and they are simply doing it 'to keep the Aussie businesses' happy is a stupid incentive. (A bit like the Interactive Gambling Act- which prohibits live betting).

I just like having a bit more variety in markets, not being charged a higher commission rate- and you just want to be wary of a monopoly totally dominating the market. I had a friend before that was charged for the Betfair Premium charge, which took away 20% of his profits at one stage. Very rarely does Betfair offer any incentive or promos- not that it needs to do it. The other exchanges, still behind in liquidity and marketing, have to do these incentives to attract new punters and keep their brand up there. In a way settling the recent, US election earlier is better for them- to keep their customers happy and to a slight extent from a marketing perspective similar to how Sportsbet did with their early payout of Biden. I'm sure also if there is a small chance had Trump overturned the decisions in the courts, the exchanges or overseas bookies would pay that out as well.

Racing NSW had their own 2.4% Turnover charge which was implemented into Betfair- which I prefer not to go into. (I am not a horse punter by any means)

Its like having a Coles v Woolworths, it would add a bit of competition in the local scene and give the consumer a bit of choice. I leave this as a situation for you guys

Assuming Model A v Model B exchanges

Model A: 5% commission on a $100,000 potential Profit, where if you won you would get back $95,000. Assuming you were a long term winner, you may be forced to pay extra charges, premium charge, etc

Model B: 2% Commission on a $100,000 potential profit, where if you won you would get back $98,000. That's yours to keep- no need to worry about the future.



which would you take?

Whether an exchange is liquid or low in liquidity is not the point I am trying to make, its more the options available and an astute punter can still profit from a market with not as deep of liquidity.

I take back a few of my comments at the time I didn't know about. Smarkets Betting Exchange have their own Betfair Premium Charge , of around for 20% for high turnover bettors.

I didn't know this existed before.

Screen Shot 2020-12-07 at 4.30.47 pm.png
 

NYRB

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For anyone's information here, I haven't been Betfair premium charged before. I had a friend previously that did though.

As I speak, the US election 2020 is nearing on 3 billion bucks.
 

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bjgplaya

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You don't happen to use the Whirlpool forum do you?
If they’ve hedged on the exchange (not sure if that’s what they do), I guess it’ll be the 14th - they latest they’ll pay out. Lack of communication from TAB suggests they’re keeping the real reason for not paying out close to their chest.
they need to sort out proper rules for politics going forward- this is a joke.
it’ll be a 6 week wait for payout, just to appease people that have their feelings hurt by the result.
 

asanque

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There are no more lawsuits left for Nevada and Arizona.

We are past safe harbour date and the states have both certified Biden as the winner.

There is no reason for Betfair not to pay out immediately.

Alternatively, feel free to load up at 1.04 and 1.05 respectively (which surely has to pay out in 4 days latest on these two markets).
 

WWII

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Thoughts on the Georgia runoffs? Looks like the polls have it pretty much neck and neck, hard to see any value atm
 

HeathComeBack

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Thoughts on the Georgia runoffs? Looks like the polls have it pretty much neck and neck, hard to see any value atm
IF the republicans are dumb enough to listen to the right and boycott the election because its "rigged" then the Dems might be overs, I personally wont be betting .
 

Sportsbet

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Supreme Court just shut down the crazy.

There is now no viable path for Trump to win the electoral vote bar dopplegangers or some form of advanced mind control.

Betfair/TAB:


bunch of smooth-brained campaigners down there....expect nothing less from them
 

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NYRB

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TAB have just settled as well but I'm wondering how they go about settling the market for 'Popular Vote'?

I'm reading some different figures about the total popular vote......i definitely had him for more than 157.5 million for last look, and they have settled my bet 157.5-159.999 million as a lost bet, as well as 160 million or more....


 

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