Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[NYRB]

Smarkets odds on Russian Politics

Putin to be Election Winner in 2024

Yes $1.37 , or you can oppose by laying at $1.44

Market Rules: "If no presidential election is held in 2024, this market will be void."

 

[54Dogs]

Smarkets odds on Russian Politics

Putin to be Election Winner in 2024

Yes $1.37 , or you can oppose by laying at $1.44

Market Rules: "If no presidential election is held in 2024, this market will be void."

Post the 2020 referendum this appears to be a lock unless the war goes south. Because he rules via a personal autocracy if he loses power he will prob finish up in jail. He's not headed for the State Council any more.

 

[NYRB]

Smarkets have a market whether Fuel will hit 2 Pound a litre in the UK:

 

[maskmcgee]

Seat of Colton in SA election Labor $6 - bellweather district Liberals hold by 6 points, latest poll showed an 8 point swing to Labor from the previous election. I don't know who will win it, but 6 minus 8 does not equal $6 odds to be a negative number to me.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Seat of Colton in SA election Labor $6 - bellweather district Liberals hold by 6 points, latest poll showed an 8 point swing to Labor from the previous election. I don't know who will win it, but 6 minus 8 does not equal $6 odds to be a negative number to me.

I reckon that is actually unders. The sitting member there (Matt Cowdrey - champion paralympian) has been performing strongly in the polls on that seat. It does have a degree of bellweather but would expect that one to stay with the Liberals fairly comfortably on this occasion.

The odds of a ALP minority government are still $5 with Sportsbet. While the overall polls are predicting a high overall vote for the ALP, they still need to win 5 seats to form a majority government.

The current state of SA is 22 Liberal, 19 ALP and 6 Independents. Of those 6 Independents, one (Frances Bedford, currently in Florey), is standing instead in Newland in this election, against a Liberal who has the most marginal seat of all.

Assuming the ALP pick up Adelaide, Elder and King from the Liberals, that brings the ALP to 22, and the Liberals fall to 19. What many aren't factoring in, is that due to a redistribution in the seat of Frome - currently held by an Independent (Geoff Brock) - the Liberals are standing the Deputy Premier, Dan van Holst Pellekaan, in that seat and the polls are strongly suggesting he wins that from Brock. This brings it back to 20 Liberal, 22 ALP and 5 Independents.

The ALP then need to find 2 more seats to form government outright. This is where a seat like Dunstan (held by the Premier, Steven Marshall - with some polls predicting he may be in a degree of trouble there), or Gibson (currently held by former TV sports presenter, Corey Wingard) may prove crucial (Wingard has a 10% margin in that seat, however has been dogged with a range of gaffes in the last 18 months).

Despite the Liberals being very much on the nose in the polls in SA, as is Steven Marshall, it would need somewhat of an upset result in a seat considered safe Liberal for the ALP to form outright government - making the odds on a ALP minority attractive.

Yes, I follow Australian elections very closely

 

[maskmcgee]

The problem with elections here, and pretty much anywhere except the US, is I can't find a site like The Crystal Ball which rates and explains all 435 congressional districts. I can find lots of news about how Labor have a large lead, and occasionally they might mention a seat or two, there's no seat by seat analysis to be found.

 

[iluvparis]

The problem with elections here, and pretty much anywhere except the US, is I can't find a site like The Crystal Ball which rates and explains all 435 congressional districts. I can find lots of news about how Labor have a large lead, and occasionally they might mention a seat or two, there's no seat by seat analysis to be found.

Antony green might have one up at some stage before the election.

 

[maskmcgee]

Election's tomorrow, he has nothing.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I'm calling it as 22 ALP, 20 Liberal, 5 Independents. Can't see 4 of them siding with Liberal - Troy Bell (Mt Gambier) has already indicated he would support the ALP.
Dan Cregan, current Speaker and Independent in Kavel, would also be unlikely to support the Liberals. I'm surprised the odds in an ALP Minority government continue to drift now to $5.50 on this scenario.

 

[maskmcgee]

Of those 6 Independents, one (Frances Bedford, currently in Florey), is standing instead in Newland in this election, against a Liberal who has the most marginal seat of all.

Labor are $1.50, Libs and any other $4.50

The sitting member there (Matt Cowdrey - champion paralympian) has been performing strongly in the polls on that seat.

Well since I posted that it's come in from $6 to $3.30 for Labor.

Can't see 4 of them siding with Liberal

Well the government is in minority right now, some of them must be siding with Liberals already?

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Labor are $1.50, Libs and any other $4.50



Well since I posted that it's come in from $6 to $3.30 for Labor.


Well the government is in minority right now, some of them must be siding with Liberals already?

Tut tut. Selective quoting on the last one, given I already said at least one (Mt Gambier) has stated he will not support Liberal in a similar situation. The Speaker of the House is also a former Liberal, now Independent, who has been very clear he wants the best for his semi-rural electorate and has been equally clear that is not the current Liberal policies.

As for Colton, you will also notice a number of safe Liberal seats have come in, simply due to the overall opinion poll results. What that doesn't account for is - even if a poll showing 54-46 ALP's way occurred, that would need to strongly exceed that proportion in a seat such as Colton, which is currently on a 7.9% margin to the Liberals on two party preferred after the last election. Even if the adjusted redistribution margin of 6.2% is used, that is still a fair way short of that 54-46 result. By all means, have a throw at the $3.30, but I reckon there are more realistic options out there at lesser odds but better chances.

 

[maskmcgee]

Comparing the electoral boundaries this year with the results of 2006, which Labor won 57-43, a bit more than the polls show for today, the areas covering Adelaide, Hartley, Dunstan and Florey should all switch. Colton was deep Red too, but it was only about half the size it is now, but the territory it picked up, most of which was West Torrens, went even stronger for Labor. One thing I discovered was the current seat of Black sits almost entirely within the old seats of Mitchell, which gave Labor 49% (vs Independent) of the 2PP vote in 2006, Bright (59%) and Reynall (67%). That's $4.15 for Labor on a territory not showing alot of support for Liberal in a landslide 16 years ago.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Comparing the electoral boundaries this year with the results of 2006, which Labor won 57-43, a bit more than the polls show for today, the areas covering Adelaide, Hartley, Dunstan and Florey should all switch. Colton was deep Red too, but it was only about half the size it is now, but the territory it picked up, most of which was West Torrens, went even stronger for Labor. One thing I discovered was the current seat of Black sits almost entirely within the old seats of Mitchell, which gave Labor 49% (vs Independent) of the 2PP vote in 2006, Bright (59%) and Reynall (67%). That's $4.15 for Labor on a territory not showing alot of support for Liberal in a landslide 16 years ago.

Hartley is very different this time around to 2018. That election it featured Nick Xenophon standing in the seat and that completely distorts the future trends given he is not there today. Expecting a small move to the ALP but not enough to change hands.

Adelaide is an absolute must for the ALP to take. They cannot have any chance at all overall if they dont get this. They should get this one by ease though.

Dunstan is the seat of the Premier Steven Marshall. Certainly not out of the realms for it to change hands as it has historically been a ALP seat

 

[iluvparis]

Any early thoughts gents?

 

[maskmcgee]

Labor's picked up Davernport, a 8.2% liberal seat with a 15% swing. Labor Majority government basically guaranteed.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I underestimated the swing in some seats toward the ALP - although note that I mentioned a few posts above about Gibson potentially being a shock Liberal loss which is looking quite possible. $11 on Sportsbet for that outcome, incidentally.

Colton never in any danger, small swing to ALP withstood by a popular local member. Davenport was a big win for the ALP also. Many will be looking at the result unfolding in Finniss with amazement, with the sitting Liberal in real danger of losing to an Independent, Lou Nicholson - she was $34 to win that seat. I had a few nibbles at this, with the price holding as late at Thursday



I did get it wrong about an ALP minority, they look set for at least 24 seats.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Scomo @ $3 in a 2 horse race is pretty good odds.

Albanese as next prime minister, just can’t see it happening.

Not sure why the hate for Scomo, might snap up the $3. Do we think it’ll blow out even more?

Arguably Bill Shorten was more popular and look how he shat the bed.

 

[iluvparis]

Also on the $3 after the gaff this morning but the above logic is utter nonsense. Labor would be $1.04 shots given this is the worst government in living memory but they just cannot win elections as shown by Albos totally unacceptable unforced error on day one.

I’ll lay them off at 2.20-2.50 though because even a half decent campaign from the ALP should get the government tossed out.

Bill Shorten more popular?! Next you’ll be telling us it was a nice Soft 6 at randwick on Saturday

 

[54Dogs]

Also on the $3 after the gaff this morning but the above logic is utter nonsense. Labor would be $1.04 shots given this is the worst government in living memory but they just cannot win elections as shown by Albos totally unacceptable unforced error on day one.

I’ll lay them off at 2.20-2.50 though because even a half decent campaign from the ALP should get the government tossed out.

Bill Shorten more popular?! Next you’ll be telling us it was a nice Soft 6 at randwick on Saturday

to be fair it was*





*outside fence

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Into $2.70. More gaffs please.

 

[hotdish]

ALP $1.50 with TAB if anyone is that confident that this election is 'easy money'

 

[iluvparis]

Also on the $3 after the gaff this morning but the above logic is utter nonsense. Labor would be $1.04 shots given this is the worst government in living memory but they just cannot win elections as shown by Albos totally unacceptable unforced error on day one.

I’ll lay them off at 2.20-2.50 though because even a half decent campaign from the ALP should get the government tossed out.

Bill Shorten more popular?! Next you’ll be telling us it was a nice Soft 6 at randwick on Saturday

Already matched at 2.50 on betfair today. Hopefully they get back out to 3.00 in the next few weeks to have another crack and just keep trading that range

 

[checkraiseulite]

o/u on $ matched on the alp v lib v any other party main betfair market?

 

[iluvparis]

o/u on $ matched on the alp v lib v any other party main betfair market?

I’m guessing over 50

 

[NYRB]

Next Tory leader anyone?