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Politics Betting Thread

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HeathComeBack said:
thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?
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This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!
 
Eric Trump tweeted this. Is there much in this? From Georgia



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What is going on here? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2020?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Election2020</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ATL?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#ATL</a> <a href="https://t.co/NJi3xmInPT">pic.twitter.com/NJi3xmInPT</a></p>&mdash; Essential Fleccas 🇺🇸 (@fleccas) <a href="">November 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

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From the AP: "Trump's campaign has filed lawsuits in Pennsylvannia, Michigan and Georgia".

Apparently 130,000 mail ballot votes landed in a van in Michigan for the Democrats from a person that worked at the mail count ins. From what I'm hearing in that ballot of votes, it was 100% votes for Biden and nothing for Trump.
 
Not sure about other states but Pennsylvannia broadcast live of what is going on Youtube of the opening of mail in ballots:

 
NYRB said:
From the AP: "Trump's campaign has filed lawsuits in Pennsylvannia, Michigan and Georgia".

Apparently 130,000 mail ballot votes landed in a van in Michigan for the Democrats from a person that worked at the mail count ins. From what I'm hearing in that ballot of votes, it was 100% votes for Biden and nothing for Trump.
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Let's not promote crazy conspiracy theories please.

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asanque said:
Let's not promote crazy conspiracy theories please.

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I don't want to ramp and I'm aware I have to be about the sources I get it from but this clip is worth a look at if you get the chance.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Large Scale Voter Fraud<br><br>“We literally have people watched it happen!”<br><br>Detroit, Michigan election poll worker describes how during <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2020?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Election2020</a> night at 4 AM on Nov 4th a Ferrari and a van showed up and dumped a batch of 130,000 ballots that were 100% for Biden!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoterFraud?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#VoterFraud</a> <a href="https://t.co/qbmi9LVbHW">pic.twitter.com/qbmi9LVbHW</a></p>&mdash; D Alex (@D_Alex_connect) <a href="">November 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Can you not post right wing nutjob theories that can be disproved by a simple google search.
www.independent.co.uk

Eric Trump tweets false claim that video shows man burning 80 ballots marked as votes for his father

The video, since marked as fake, features a man setting fire to a bag full of papers resembling ballots
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

I am somewhat skeptical that one person watched 130000 votes being counted that were all for Biden (given how long votes are being taken to count just a few thousand at the moment).

Edit: I note on closer watch, those tweets relate to other crazy conspiracy theories.

Can you at least link to a credible news source.

If you constantly link crazy right wing tweets, you may as well be Tom Browne.
 
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NYRB said:
I don't want to ramp and I'm aware I have to be about the sources I get it from but this clip is worth a look at if you get the chance.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Large Scale Voter Fraud<br><br>“We literally have people watched it happen!”<br><br>Detroit, Michigan election poll worker describes how during <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2020?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Election2020</a> night at 4 AM on Nov 4th a Ferrari and a van showed up and dumped a batch of 130,000 ballots that were 100% for Biden!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoterFraud?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#VoterFraud</a> <a href="https://t.co/qbmi9LVbHW">pic.twitter.com/qbmi9LVbHW</a></p>&mdash; D Alex (@D_Alex_connect) <a href="">November 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Jesus, thats a great source, random twitter nutjob?
 

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61k of votes left in Georgia

Will come down to the wire but I expect Biden to prevail just.

Overall, based on my sources regarding each of Nevada, Arizona, Pennslyvania and Georgia, I think Dollar Bill said it best:
giphy.gif


Edit: A better breakdown
Georgia - 43k in deep blue areas (needs 75+ here)
About 18k in red areas (needs to break even here)

Pennslyvania - Biden will win easily (if count finishes) which is all he needs to break 270

Nevada - 150k to go (but expected mail in Clark County should be enough with a 7k vote lead)

Arizona - Will be very close too (so will bear watching)
 
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Nothing big but I'm seeing Kamala Harris is coming in on Betfair to about $600 with a decent amount of action -- what's the scenario here? Trump takes everything left except for GA, 269-269 draw and then...?

edit: two minutes later and it's at 380
edit2: 170 now -- is Biden dead or something?
 
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noffle said:
Nothing big but I'm seeing Kamala Harris is coming in on Betfair to about $600 with a decent amount of action -- what's the scenario here? Trump takes everything left except for GA, 269-269 draw and then...?

edit: two minutes later and it's at 380
edit2: 170 now -- is Biden dead or something?
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Back out to 500 now.

I don't know what happens in the event that Biden croaks before the election is declared.

Based on the rules on Betfair it appears to me that they would still pay out on Biden, even if he dies tomorrow (and wins the EC).

Anyhow, Trump now out to 13s, Nevada out to 26, Arizona over 4.

If the markets are to be trusted, and I for one trust them way more than the polls, then it is game over.

But I can't shake the feeling there's another twist in this tale...
 
mookieb said:
Is that the point of rigging? To win the states that you rig?
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You need to do your 'rigging' (whatever the hell that is supposed to mean) before the polls close.

Before the polls close you don't know which states you are going to win and lose.

You can have a guess at which ones are going to be close, and try and 'rig' those (by whatever tinfoil hat theory you subscribe to).
But because you are guessing on close states- it is just as likely that you happen to 'rig' states that you lose as well as states that you win.

As I said, so either:
A. The dems have a crystal ball or a time machine that they used to 'rig' precisely ONLY the close states they ended up winning.

B. They 'rigged' every close state, even the ones that they lost- so presumably we are talking mass electoral fraud, evidence of which would be consistent and plentiful across all close states.

C. The whole thing is utter nonsense from a man that even his greatest supporters would acknowledge loves talking nonsense.... or have we forgotten about drinking bleach and blowing up hurricanes with nuclear weapons?
 
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HeathComeBack said:
thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?
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Or the hick political thread. No surprised thread has turned to complete shit once the Donald has gone full AVD down the stretch.
 
Managed to get a few good trades on and almost certainly cash in small although not set in stone.

Will be screwed if either leader of the winning party is assasinated or drops dead (anything is possible). Massive betfair liability on the others for now.

Much better to back-Lay rather than back-back for peace of mind.
 
noffle said:
Trump about to come out and speak, hopefully he comes in a bit on Betfair. I will empty my account into Biden if it blows out a bit (really the 1.1 is value at the moment)
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If you count the legal votes I easily win :D
 

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