Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[iluvparis]

Good boy. Better grabbing that free money than having a whinge that it's still available

 

[Del125763]

I have been betting on and off for the past 8 years. At no point have i ever thought any bet was ever a 100% certainty. There is always risk in every bet.

That is untill now. I can not believe that people are still willing to bet on Trump. More than that, his odds shortening astound me.

Quoting directly from Betfairs rules section regarding trump electoral college votes.

"This market will be settled according to the popular vote won at the 2020 presidential election and the respective projected electoral college votes. Any subsequent events i.e. a ‘faithless elector’ would have no effect on the settlement of this market."

Common reasons people say Trump can still win:
- Joe Biden dies. Does not affect outcome
- Joe Biden arrested for some crime. Does not affect outcome.
- Trump somehow convinces electors to vote for him even though electors are loyalists chosen by the democrat party. Does not affect outcome.

The only way Trump does not get between 210-239 votes is if he can overturn the popular vote is states not yet certified. They literally have to throw out votes in Wisconsin and Arizona for that to happen. The only two relatively close states that are yet to certify.
It is ridiculous to believe this would happen. There is no evidence this is even a remote possibility.

I expect the market will be paid out when the final state certifies just before December 14th.

I normally do not share my bets but this time after everything I wrote I better be willing to put my money where my mouth is.

View attachment 1019011

This may be a stupid thing to say, but did you consider cashing out your 5k? Could think of better ways to get 10% , than locking it it for potentially a period of 3 months..................

 

[Del125763]

There aint enough liquidity on most Australian events as is let alone splitting it!

I agree but its all built by word of mouth.

The dangerous thing with a monopoly, is they can make their own rules up as they go along. Betfair introduced a 10% commission for NRL matches at the beginning of the season, they have the premium charge, just to name a few instances. At the end of the day, Betfair is a business....so they are always looking to extract every dollar from the consumer.

I like using Smarkets because they are always 2% commission, BETDAQ sometimes offer incentives where they have no commission on certain events............
There was talk a few years back that the TAB was considering an exchange type model. I've even thrown the suggestion (admittedly as a bit of sarcasm about Sportsbet turning it into an exchange website). I don't mind using any bookmaker so be that they don't offer $hit odds like $1.83 v $1.83 for a 2 horse race.

Like I said, it will take time but there is no doubt the 'average punter' in Aus, is becoming also a 'smarter punter' and quite a lot are switching to become 'full time professionals'. I use to laugh off the idea, of a 'professional punter' but I definitely do know it exists now. and I actually fear for bookmakers that have a base in Australia in particular: BlueBet, TopSport and whoever doesn't offer competitive enough margins.

 

[iluvparis]

Betfair charges 10% on NRL because of the extreme costs imposed on them by PVL and the NRL administration - its not because they are a monopoly.

 

[Jugada]

The Aussie punter definitely isn't getting smarter. That's half the reason Betfair doesn't catch on here, most can't work out how to even use it

 

[54Dogs]

Betfair charges 10% on NRL because of the extreme costs imposed on them by PVL and the NRL administration - its not because they are a monopoly.

This. 2.5% AFL vs 10% NRL and NSW racing



Wonder why

 

[Sportsbet]

All this betting exchange talk is making me nervous

 

[54Dogs]

Like I said, it will take time but there is no doubt the 'average punter' in Aus, is becoming also a 'smarter punter' and quite a lot are switching to become 'full time professionals'. I use to laugh off the idea, of a 'professional punter' but I definitely do know it exists now. and I actually fear for bookmakers that have a base in Australia in particular: BlueBet, TopSport and whoever doesn't offer competitive enough margins.

There are very few full time professionals in Aus. Plenty of semi-professionals who make a profit but not enough to make a stand alone living now with POC impacts and mergers reducing competition.

BlueBet and TS are completely different. BB are an on track bookie who have set up an online arm and are very small time, most punters with a bit of knowledge are limited within weeks. TopSport are the cornerstone of corporate bookies in Aus and the only bookie who do not limit any punters at all, professional or otherwise. All the pros use them because they can get a bet on up to the designated market limit set by TS without restriction. Watch any interview with a pro punter in Aus and they will talk about how they use TS and BF as their mainstays. There's also a good podcast on the Business of Betting with Tristan Merlehan where he talks about their corporate model.

 

[Del125763]

There are very few full time professionals in Aus. Plenty of semi-professionals who make a profit but not enough to make a stand alone living now with POC impacts and mergers reducing competition.

BlueBet and TS are completely different. BB are an on track bookie who have set up an online arm and are very small time, most punters with a bit of knowledge are limited within weeks. TopSport are the cornerstone of corporate bookies in Aus and the only bookie who do not limit any punters at all, professional or otherwise. All the pros use them because they can get a bet on up to the designated market limit set by TS without restriction. Watch any interview with a pro punter in Aus and they will talk about how they use TS and BF as their mainstays. There's also a good podcast on the Business of Betting with Tristan Merlehan where he talks about their corporate model.

If there is only one criticism of TopSport that I have had on their website, and its a small one, but sometimes they take a minute or 2 to accept bets. I have no doubt that there is someone on their side checking if they are giving the punter the right odds based. PointsBet are probably a bit slower at times in processing bets, but generally speaking I like their spread betting on events. (similar to a site in the UK called SpreadEx- which too got banned in Aus)

Apart from that , I have never had any issues with TopSport. They have always paid out on time and have a good few novelties in AFL markets.

Bluebet the less said , the better. They are marketed towards the 'working class punter' . Even in their promos, you can see it.




If you win too much off BlueBet, you will 99% be restricted. Avoid at all cost.

 

[HeathySure]

There are very few full time professionals in Aus. Plenty of semi-professionals who make a profit but not enough to make a stand alone living now with POC impacts and mergers reducing competition.

BlueBet and TS are completely different. BB are an on track bookie who have set up an online arm and are very small time, most punters with a bit of knowledge are limited within weeks. TopSport are the cornerstone of corporate bookies in Aus and the only bookie who do not limit any punters at all, professional or otherwise. All the pros use them because they can get a bet on up to the designated market limit set by TS without restriction. Watch any interview with a pro punter in Aus and they will talk about how they use TS and BF as their mainstays. There's also a good podcast on the Business of Betting with Tristan Merlehan where he talks about their corporate model.

Most pro punters dont last long either. Most edges are found eventually and there needs to be a new edge found. Either you move on, have some sort of subsidy like Zjelko or you eventually lose !

 

[Reveen]

Over $2bil has been matched now.

 

[The_Steadier]

Lol sleepy joe biden can't even do voter fraud properly.

He rigged the Wisconsin vote by giving trump votes.
Nice one joe.

Joe Biden gains votes in Wisconsin county after Trump-ordered recount

Milwaukee recount, which cost Trump campaign $3m, boosts Democratic president-elect days before state must certify result

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tabcorp]

All this betting exchange talk is making me nervous

I feel you brother.

 

[Minh Le]

Hi Tapcorp i dont have a sister sorry lol,

As I said at the beginning as Donald Trump will win 2020 and mark it as my words!

 

[CHuggySera]

This may be a stupid thing to say, but did you consider cashing out your 5k? Could think of better ways to get 10% , than locking it it for potentially a period of 3 months..................

Probably not going to go down that path for a few reasons. Firstly I am in general a pretty risk averse person. I would rather lock in 10% for what in my opinion is a 100% certainty then take chances on anythingelse.

Next this money was part of a payout for us election results from ladbrokes/Neds so I am thinking of it as more of an odds boost towards my original bets then a new bet.

And finally my betting season is mostly over. I mostly just bet on afl (brownlow and afl futurers in particular) and politics. So even if there were good opportunities in racing or other sports i'm not sure I could find them effectively.

 

[Del125763]

Betfair update - https://betting.betfair.com/politic...fair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html

14 December appears to be the magic date.

Will be a nice little present just before Christmas

 

[asanque]

Betfair update - https://betting.betfair.com/politic...fair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html

14 December appears to be the magic date.

Super brave of them.

Thought they might wait an extra year just to be sure (Edit: there will likely be more frivolous law suits to come all the way to inauguration).

Laughable that they can't settle a market after official state certification and with no active law suits pending (e.g. Pennsylvania etc.).

If they consulted proper lawyers, they would have realised Trump is now 1 minor win and 39 losses in election law suits and has no chance whatsoever in any live law suits.

Sure, there could still be a mythical quadruple hail mary to the Supreme Court, but that applies to every other single sporting event that exists.

 

[asanque]

Here is the status of presidential election certification in the 6 key states:

Georgia--certified, ongoing machine recount (should be finished by tomorrow) after a manual hand recount (a few active law suits mainly trying to decertify)
Michigan - certified (1 active suit trying to decertify)
Nevada - certified (1 active law suit alleging fraud)
Pennsylvania - certified (no active law suits)
Arizona - certifying tomorrow (1 active law suit seeking to block certification)
Wisconsin - certifying tomorrow, recount over (2 active law suits seeking to block certification)

 

[bjgplaya]

Yup - look forward to Betfair not paying out on the Magic Millions this year until all post race swabs are returned

Lol this is the exact example I used in trying to get somewhere with useless TAB Customer Service team. Just because the trainer and a few punters say a horse cheated then we have to wait until the swabs come back?

If any one else has wagers with TAB - they've breached at least two of their own VIC sports fixed odds rules, along with at least two breaches of the 2003 gambling regulation act IMO.

I'd vbe happy to wait if there was clear communication and clearly set expectations and definitions, however They just hide behind a FAQ page that was drafted the week before the election, with no updates since and refuse to escalate to a CS manager or Fixed Odds trading team.

I'll draft a proper post with those key items and would encourage if anyone feels like they've been stooged here to lodge a complaint with the VCGLR.

 

[bjgplaya]

Key items for VCGLR complaint -

The specific language in the market was clearly - presidential winner, in the 59th US Presidential election, not next sworn in President, not who will be president January 21 2021. It was clear that the bet was placed on the outcome of the 'election'

TAB Sportsbet (VIC) Betting Rules

help.tab.com.au

Their own non specific sport VIC bet rules state - note there is no politics specific bet rules - they really need to address that moving forward.

10.4 At all times the Betting Operator will reasonably endeavour to declare the Outcome in accordance with the generally acknowledged outcome of the Event at the time of its conclusion or at such time as the outcome is first reliably notified to the Betting Operator. (the drug swab on horse analogy).

10.7 Unless otherwise determined by the Betting Operator and notified to customers generally at the time of making the bet, wagers on Events will be settled on the official or podium positions as per the adjudication of the relevant, recognised governing body. Subsequent disqualification, promotion of competitors, or any other change is irrelevant for the purposes of determining the result of a bet. (again same analogy).

The wagering rules also stipulate payout within 3 days of outcome in the Vic jurisdiction.

Relevant section of the 2003 gambling regulation act 4.4.6 which outlines the contract between punter and bookie, formed thru what's outlined in the betting rules as I've posted above. Essentially the law that enforces the betting rules provided as the contract.

Make a complaint

Complaints relate to something that has happened which may have broken one or more of the gambling or liquor laws that we are able to investigate.

www.vcglr.vic.gov.au

Again - I wouldn't care if they just gave a date and stuck to it and didnt keep referring me to an over month old FAQ document that yes of course I have read. But to not provide clear up to date communication given the amount of funds tied up awaiting settlement is a farce.

GL all.

 

[Del125763]

No doubt about it, the longer the betting companies hold 'the winnings' the more its a win for them.

When I studied Finance the motto ' a dollar today, is worth more than a dollar in a years time"

 

[99 Problems]

Has anyone other than betfair or TAB not paid out? Once again they have very different operations to other corporates that have prevented them. TAB definitely would’ve preferred to pay out by now. Biden is the better result for them and they want punters reinvesting the money rather than having dead winnings sitting there they can’t get back.

The 3 days within an outcome payout rule doesn’t come into play as the event is not technically over until he officially wins the electoral college (which he will). They can’t pay out individuals because it sets precedent if people take a dispute to the commission so they won’t bother passing it on to a supervisor because they would have hundreds a day requesting the same thing.

 

[The_Steadier]

Has anyone other than betfair or TAB not paid out? Once again they have very different operations to other corporates that have prevented them. TAB definitely would’ve preferred to pay out by now. Biden is the better result for them and they want punters reinvesting the money rather than having dead winnings sitting there they can’t get back.

The 3 days within an outcome payout rule doesn’t come into play as the event is not technically over until he officially wins the electoral college (which he will). They can’t pay out individuals because it sets precedent if people take a dispute to the commission so they won’t bother passing it on to a supervisor because they would have hundreds a day requesting the same thing.

Still waiting on.sportsbet to payout on electoral votes

 

[Del125763]

Has anyone other than betfair or TAB not paid out? Once again they have very different operations to other corporates that have prevented them. TAB definitely would’ve preferred to pay out by now. Biden is the better result for them and they want punters reinvesting the money rather than having dead winnings sitting there they can’t get back.

The 3 days within an outcome payout rule doesn’t come into play as the event is not technically over until he officially wins the electoral college (which he will). They can’t pay out individuals because it sets precedent if people take a dispute to the commission so they won’t bother passing it on to a supervisor because they would have hundreds a day requesting the same thing.

All 3 other betting exchanges have paid out: BETDAQ, Smarkets and Matchbook. Only thing they haven't paid out is a few of the states that have gone to the courts and electoral CV's.

 

[bjgplaya]

rules

Has anyone other than betfair or TAB not paid out? Once again they have very different operations to other corporates that have prevented them. TAB definitely would’ve preferred to pay out by now. Biden is the better result for them and they want punters reinvesting the money rather than having dead winnings sitting there they can’t get back.

The 3 days within an outcome payout rule doesn’t come into play as the event is not technically over until he officially wins the electoral college (which he will). They can’t pay out individuals because it sets precedent if people take a dispute to the commission so they won’t bother passing it on to a supervisor because they would have hundreds a day requesting the same thing.

So few things there - yes all other Corps have paid out. Apart from top sport I think.
betfair have communicated a solid date now- sweet we’re all aware of that.
Biden was the best outcome pre election, but going by several of their social media posts - the balance of cash swung heavily to him once it was clear he would be victorious
Yeah I understand they can’t pay individual, the issue I have is there hasn’t been any updated information, that’s all I was trying to get from up the chain. As you said there would be hundreds of inquiries a day, so why not just put out an updated statement?? Seems fair and would save a lot of time on their end.
re the 3 day rule post outcome - in sports rules the stated rule is the outcome is the “generally acknowledged outcome”. Which really could be projected winner called by media; as has been for every election these last two decades, however safe guard would be certified electoral votes. Which as I mentioned I would be fine with had TAB simply stated that from late October.
They could avoid all this with some simple updated comms. Not hard really.