Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Well I for one lost a lot of money on Trump. And I'm happy to own up to it. I dun goofed.

Congrats to those who made money on Biden. Especially those who got on on election day when he was over $2.

 

[54Dogs]

Well I for one lost a lot of money on Trump. And I'm happy to own up to it. I dun goofed.

Congrats to those who made money on Biden. Especially those who got on on election day when he was over $2.

Losing on Trump betting pre election or even on the day was fine, there was a case to be made.

It's the lunatics in tin foil hats betting on Trump over the past 3-4 weeks once victory was assured and even announced that is the problem

 

[mcfly7]

These chumps are starting to get way ahead of themselves. Even talks about starting a political party

 

[The_Steadier]

Trump to leave office before finishing his term has come in from $35 to $8 on betfair.

I don't think it will happen, but trump is a proven quitter so you never know.

 

[NYRB]

pro-Trump mob stormed into Capitol, 1 pro Trump supporter shot down.

 

[The_Steadier]

pro-Trump mob stormed into Capitol, 1 pro Trump supporter shot down.

Number of people shocked by this occuring:
0.

 

[NYRB]

Correction: 4 deaths

 

[NYRB]

First market

"Will President Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives between 7 January 2021 and the end of his presidential term?"

Market Rules:

This market concerns whether the US House of Representatives will vote, by simple majority, to approve or pass any articles of impeachment on President Donald Trump between 7 January 2021 and the end of his presidential term on 20 January 2021. This market is not concerned with any votes that may take place in the Senate, nor is it concerned with the 25th Amendment. If Donald Trump is removed from office via the 25th Amendment, this will have no bearing on the outcome of the market. If he is removed from office via the 25th Amendment before he is impeached, this market will settle for no.


Odds from Smarkets

Yes $1.83 v $1.83 No

 

[NYRB]

Will Twitter ban Donald Trump?

Yes $3.35 v $1.23 No

Market Rules:

This market relates to whether Twitter will permanently suspend the @realDonaldTrump account before the end of his first term at 11:59 on 20 January 2021. A permanent suspension must be confirmed by @TwitterSafety, and the date and time of any tweet confirmation of permanent suspension will be taken as the date and time of the suspension for the purposes of this market. If Twitter announce that they have 'indefinitely' suspended the @realDonaldTrump account, this will be taken as a permanent suspension for the purposes of this market.


jeez $3.35 is pretty decent odds me thinks....

 

[anabac]

All I want is my damn Donald trump bet to be settled so it's out of my pending bets! Ladbrokes still must think he's some kind of chance

 

[NYRB]

Trump to serve a full term?

Yes $1.13 v $8.20 No

 

[54Dogs]

Trump to serve a full term?

Yes $1.13 v $8.20 No

So the 3 ways he could not serve full term are

Impeached
25th amendment
Resign

All seem unlikely

 

[ricardogp]

Impeached: isn't this impossible now that they have suspended all sitting until after the 20th?

25th: would require too many Republicans to grow a pair I think.

Resign: more chance of Caitlyn Jenner having a baby.


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[iluvparis]

Ass..........

 

[NYRB]

January 20 is the expected date of Joe Biden Inauguration

 

[54Dogs]

Will Twitter ban Donald Trump?

Yes $3.35 v $1.23 No

Market Rules:

This market relates to whether Twitter will permanently suspend the @realDonaldTrump account before the end of his first term at 11:59 on 20 January 2021. A permanent suspension must be confirmed by @TwitterSafety, and the date and time of any tweet confirmation of permanent suspension will be taken as the date and time of the suspension for the purposes of this market. If Twitter announce that they have 'indefinitely' suspended the @realDonaldTrump account, this will be taken as a permanent suspension for the purposes of this market.


jeez $3.35 is pretty decent odds me thinks....

and winner

 

[ricardogp]

Impeached: isn't this impossible now that they have suspended all sitting until after the 20th?

25th: would require too many Republicans to grow a pair I think.

Resign: more chance of Caitlyn Jenner having a baby.


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Looks like I was wrong... Pelosi and others are planning on submitting articles of impeachment on Monday and already have co-sponsors and a trial date picked out, according to reports on twitter.

I don't have access to that market but worth checking the prices.


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[54Dogs]

Looks like I was wrong... Pelosi and others are planning on submitting articles of impeachment on Monday and already have co-sponsors and a trial date picked out, according to reports on twitter.

I don't have access to that market but worth checking the prices.


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2 thirds majority would be the challenge yeh?

 

[ricardogp]

Can't remember. It might be a majority in the house but 2/3 in the senate. There is probably someone here more knowledgeable than me.


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[FallingLiefs]

Would love to see the vote count be done like the reality show survivor. Anonymous and 1 by 1.

Price fluctuations would be great

 

[54Dogs]

Can't remember. It might be a majority in the house but 2/3 in the senate. There is probably someone here more knowledgeable than me.


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yep the issue as with last time is 2 thirds senate requirement which won't happen unless a heap of republicans vote against party lines.

 

[FallingLiefs]

yep the issue as with last time is 2 thirds senate requirement which won't happen unless a heap of republicans vote against party lines.

Would be unlikely but maybe only factor is, he's gone anyway there will be minimal backlash of the few required to stab him in the back especially if the consensus is a few will, you don't want to be that 1 person.

 

[freo_leo29]

If Republicans want a chance of winning 2024 then a trump impeachment is handy for them, means he can't run which he will try to do with his cult following.

 

[54Dogs]

Would be unlikely but maybe only factor is, he's gone anyway there will be minimal backlash of the few required to stab him in the back especially if the consensus is a few will, you don't want to be that 1 person.

True, although he has a massive following and has raised a fortune since the election and if he dodges the state law suits might run again in 4 yrs, so possibly a few unwilling to step on toes

 

[iluvparis]

If Republicans want a chance of winning 2024 then a trump impeachment is handy for them, means he can't run which he will try to do with his cult following.

There is enough cultitsts left in the Senate that will stand beside him.