Opinion Politics (warning, may contain political views you disagree with)

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bushchook

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Exactly. In that chart you showed we are classified as 'light restrictions'. We've locked down our borders but still 'light' - that should tell you something, yes?
Our restrictions were much heavier than places like Taiwan or Japan which didn't force any businesses or schools to close etc, so not sure why we are classified the same as them.

The thing that all the top performing (healthwise) countries have in common are strong border control and the ability to enforce it - island countries like Iceland, Taiwan, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, and countries with basically impenetrable borders like Vietnam and Korea.

By far the biggest factor in stopping the virus was stopping it coming into your country early on, the countries that did that were barely affected at all. Locking down businesses, closing schools, making people wear masks etc did 2/5ths of fu** all.
 

wayToGo_

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Our restrictions were much heavier than places like Taiwan or Japan which didn't force any businesses or schools to close etc, so not sure why we are classified the same as them.
Hey, you're the one that referenced that chart. You can't then pick and choose which parts of it I should believe and which I shouldn't :)
 

salim malik

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USA haven't followed a lockdown plan, How is their economy going?
The figures aren't great but WA was the only state to have job vacancies in the plus.
Victoria ran out of nurses , had to import them from SA.
Their health system is not holding up , overwhelmed by numbers.
Anyone who wants to open the borders is doing it for selfish reasons.
Explain why Palmer wants it open , it's not because of his caring and benevolent nature.
 

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bushchook

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Exactly. In that chart you showed we are classified as 'light restrictions'. We've locked down our borders but still 'light' - that should tell you something, yes?
All it really tells me is that their classification system is a bit inaccurate, since New Zealand did basically the same as us but NZ is classified as "moderate".

There are gonna be some blurred lines when they are trying to classify every country's response in only 3 levels. There were obviously countries with far fewer restrictions than Australia.
 

wayToGo_

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USA haven't followed a lockdown plan, How is their economy going?
You mean that country that just had their worst quarter in recorded history and undid 5 years worth of economic gains in a few months?

Except I missed finding that out because I only watch FoxNews. Suspect Trump is back in his bunker in foetal position atm.
 

wahooo

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The economy is screwed everywhere because of the lockdown. Even if your country didn't lock down your economy is screwed because all your trading partners did. But generally the countries that didn't put draconian lockdown measures in place are doing better than the ones that did.

Graph here
Wow.

Referencing that graph is clutching at straws. There is no clear relationship there between the severity of lockdowns and economic outcomes.

I can't help but feel the classifications they've used are bizarre. They have the US and UK listed as moderate restrictions when in reality the UK's initial response was relaxed, they were targeting herd immunity. In the US meanwhile the response is basically different between every state dependent on whether it's republican or democratic so hard to say at all what type of restrictions they've got. They've got China listed as light restrictions, meanwhile, China implemented the strictest possible of lockdowns in Wuhan.

Even if a relationship did emerge from that graph they've not used any controls. All these countries were starting from different positions in terms of both their economic performance and the rate of infection/their ability to control the spread of the virus.

It's an amateur piece of analysis that reveals nothing but hey, at least you tried to make it confirm your biases.
 

Monument Hills

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People do realize this thing is not going away in a hurry and it is very likely we will not develop a vaccine? It is a virus, like AIDS, SARS, herpes, Spanish flu - no vaccine for any of them.
I was of this opinion a few months back. However, we now have two potential vaccines in phase 3 trials (well one is currently recruiting). That trial will take approx. 3 months. FDA/TGA/MHRA approvals can be prepared ready for submission in the meantime. Vaccine is actually now looking quite promising for 2021.
 

dropbear101

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as far as i can tell their are three reasons the border's remains closed

econmic:
when person 1 buys something from person 2 they give person 2 money and receive a good in return. That's a poor explanation on how spending forms someone else's income in this case person 2.
The borders remaining closed means people feel safe. They go outside and are willing to spend this forms someone else's income. That person who just received that income goes and spends themselves. This feedback loop essentially forms the economy. I'm very sure of that one because I'm 3rd year economics/physics student and I have a very good contact in gov.

Second reason is the mathematical method in which pandemics grow and the unpredictability of that growth. Normal people think of growth in the addition terms +(this is on average). pandemics grow in a sort of multiplication for loop thing (computer programming term) basically you take any current number and multiply it leading to a new number of infections (say 2*x), which leads to much faster growth and it means its harder to control.
the unpredictability of that growth is also a problem. All it takes is one undetected case going to the footy to infect hundreds.
The virus also can be hard to detect who has it because of incubation period and some people are asymatic and thus growth in infection may be undetected.

Third is political; on the federal level; state governments deciding borders means loss of power and a terrible fear that a WA labour government decides borders (libs old enemy(immigrants) may take advantage). Scott Morrison is also a bit of a ideologue (watch any talk on religion) so constitutions are important.

State politics has been covered to death

in summary border closed means good WA economy because it encourages spending.
WA government is scared of growth of infections.
Politically Feds don't like border closures and state does.
 

bushchook

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Palmer misread WA , he thought the majority would go for his free the economy spiel.
Palmer isn't asking the people of WA to vote for it, he's taking the issue to the high court.

What the average mug on the street thinks is fairly irrelevant to constitutional law.

That said, if I was McGowan I would make the argument that air travel in particular presents a higher risk of virus transmission, at least he could then make a case for keeping flights out. He would have to reopen the WA-SA border though, but SA has even less cases than WA so it wouldn't be too big of a deal.
 
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wahooo

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Or you know, one premier attempting to ignore the constitution in attempt to keep his approval rating high.
Hold up here champ.

This matter is ongoing, there has been no determination made as to the constitutionality of the McGowan government's action. It's an intriguing case and there's interesting arguments either way. I suggest you await the outcome before making bold assertions, you're certainly no justice of the high court.

You cannot continue to assert, as you have done, that it is unconstitutional.

Maybe take some of your own advice:

What the average mug on the street thinks is fairly irrelevant to constitutional law.
 

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Cesoir

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I was of this opinion a few months back. However, we now have two potential vaccines in phase 3 trials (well one is currently recruiting). That trial will take approx. 3 months. FDA/TGA/MHRA approvals can be prepared ready for submission in the meantime. Vaccine is actually now looking quite promising for 2021.
Yeah, I hope for all our sakes you are right. I was at a function with a number of medical people the other week and they were of the opinion that it is highly unlikely - I defer to their experience but they may well be wrong. The other point they made was that based on current evidence it appears immunity only lasts for 3 - 4 months then people can be reinfected, so a possible vaccine will offer limited protection at best.

Anyway, not trying to be a doomsayer, it will run its course whatever that may be and we just have to take whatever precautions we can - and hope there's not some idiot who wants to sneak into WA for a party!
 

Steinfreo

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I was of this opinion a few months back. However, we now have two potential vaccines in phase 3 trials (well one is currently recruiting). That trial will take approx. 3 months. FDA/TGA/MHRA approvals can be prepared ready for submission in the meantime. Vaccine is actually now looking quite promising for 2021.
Herd immunity not supported by a vaccine or effective treatment was always a dud response to COVID.
 

FreoMonocle

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The problem is we've done such a good job preventing the spread here that (a) people aren't exposed to it and therefore don't understand how serious it is (it's not just about dying, it's about the permanent damage it is causing to many more people than die from it); and (b) people have become more and more complacent lately so if it does find its way in then it could spread quickly (like in Vic).
Who'd want to be in government when the population is stacked with so many self entitled "You can't tell me what to do" numpties.

There are a stack of people here in Melbourne that are supposed to comply with self-isolation. 130 people, a quarter of the checks for the last 2 days weren't at home when doorknocked by the adf/quarantine crew. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...es-climb-as-dan-andrews-gives-update/12510618.

What is frigging wrong with people? This selfishness will just extend the lockdown here, I"m incredibly pissed off and these same self entitled numpties are then going to complain further and longer about the lockdown going on for longer and the impacts on their jobs, not being able to shop for shoes or power drills and not being able to go to the footy etc. :mad::mad::mad:

This virus is not a joke. Even with protective gear and protocols, of the approx 6000 active cases, the premier said that 614 are healthcare workers.
 

Johnny Dalmas

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One of the interesting issues for the McGowan government is: what's the end game?

If they win in the High Court, well good for the state govt. But it creates a big potential problem for them. They then take on full responsibility for changing the border policy at some undetermined point in the future.

When is that?

- When there is a vaccine? That may never happen.
- When there is no community transmission in the rest of Australia? It might be years until every other state is free of community transmission.

Having a closed border is definitely popular now. But if we still have a closed border in, say, 12-18 or more months time, how popular will it be?

If there is still COVID transmission in Sydney or Melbourne for a long time into future (years potentially? Especially if no effective vaccine), then the McGowan government will have effectively hamstrung itself if it wins a court case by arguing that its border closure should be uniform across all states.

Far better to lose and be forced to open some borders (say: SA or NTwhere there is minimal community transmission). At least that gives you wriggle room later.
 

mightymouse75

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One of the interesting issues for the McGowan government is: what's the end game?

If they win in the High Court, well good for the state govt. But it creates a big potential problem for them. They then take on full responsibility for changing the border policy at some undetermined point in the future.

When is that?

- When there is a vaccine? That may never happen.
- When there is no community transmission in the rest of Australia? It might be years until every other state is free of community transmission.

Having a closed border is definitely popular now. But if we still have a closed border in, say, 12-18 or more months time, how popular will it be?

If there is still COVID transmission in Sydney or Melbourne for a long time into future (years potentially? Especially if no effective vaccine), then the McGowan government will have effectively hamstrung itself if it wins a court case by arguing that its border closure should be uniform across all states.

Far better to lose and be forced to open some borders (say: SA or NTwhere there is minimal community transmission). At least that gives you wriggle room later.
Or a quick, cheap & conclusive test would make a difference. Test people on the border as they request to come in.

If transmission runs away in the east I can see them opening up to the world again while we are locked down even without a vaccine or miracle cure..
 

Johnny Dalmas

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Or a quick, cheap & conclusive test would make a difference. Test people on the border as they request to come in.

If transmission runs away in the east I can see them opening up to the world again while we are locked down even without a vaccine or miracle cure..
Good point about a test. Yes: reliable, quick and cheap could open the border very quickly
 

wayToGo_

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If they win in the High Court, well good for the state govt. But it creates a big potential problem for them. They then take on full responsibility for changing the border policy at some undetermined point in the future.
Think 'relatively' that problem is actually pretty good. Would you prefer to be in McGowan's shoes or Andrews' (Vic) shoes atm? I know which 'problem' I'd rather have to deal with.

A hard border is just one of many measures as well - and borders have varying degrees of restrictions which is something we've always had to control anyway (eg stopping fruit coming across borders etc). "Fruitarians to challenge WA in the High Court". What we are doing now (hard border) wasn't what we were doing a few weeks back - the govt will ratchet it up or down based on their assessment of risk at a point in time. That's smart government imo - I've still yet to hear any actual tangible reasons why they are being unreasonable other than "but it's against the Constitution" - a document certainly not created with a pandemic in mind.

That's what I find so ridiculous about this debate and the legal challenge. It's not like the WA govt hasn't continually reassessed and been willing to ease or increase restrictions throughout this pandemic as new information comes to hand. They are just being very conservative (just like we are being nationally in a global setting) and unlike other States we haven't had to say one moment we are opening borders and then racing to shut them when they realise they haven't read the tea leaves well.

The Libs should have realised pandemics are a good time not to play partisan politics - be part of the solution, not the problem.
 

Reynolds Number

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Labor wants the borders shut, WA Liberals want the borders shut and WA has the best economic recovery of any state in the country.
IMG_20200801_095428.jpg


But the federal Liberals through their leader are assisting Clive in court to open up WA borders.
 

FreoMonocle

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The high court has already made a recent ruling - 2005 on the issue of freedom of interstate trade, commerce and intercourse, that affects border closure.

"Part 14 of the Legal Professional Regulation 2002 (NSW) made it an offence and professional misconduct for a barrister or solicitor to publish an advertisement that includes any reference to personal injury, to the circumstances in which personal injury might occur, or to personal injury legal services. The aim of the regulations was to discourage the vice colloquially known as ‘ambulance chasing’." (http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UNSWLawJl/2006/20.html) Basically, of the several matters contested, one was of a website uploaded on a Melbourne server, the High court allowed NSW to ban advertising targeted at NSW that was held in Melbourne (interstate trade and commerce).

The upshot, is that states have the discretion to close borders for matters in the public interest (as they did in this instance, in the virtual domain). There is no difference between a partial closure and full closure of the border, it is not referenced in the constitution. Thankfully, exceptions are adjudicated as allowable - as it's meant food security for consumers and farmers and Australia's bottom dollar as a food exporter, minimised transmission of disease for people etc. It is one of those issues of the greater good over riding individual rights, Clive and ScoMo can stick it where the sun doesn't shine.
 

BlueE

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Yeah, I hope for all our sakes you are right. I was at a function with a number of medical people the other week and they were of the opinion that it is highly unlikely - I defer to their experience but they may well be wrong. The other point they made was that based on current evidence it appears immunity only lasts for 3 - 4 months then people can be reinfected, so a possible vaccine will offer limited protection at best.

Anyway, not trying to be a doomsayer, it will run its course whatever that may be and we just have to take whatever precautions we can - and hope there's not some idiot who wants to sneak into WA for a party!
Latest published evidence retesting people that had the Rona is that their antibodies against CoVid 19 they had after recovering only remain at the same strength in 17% after 3 months. Many have no antibodies left. That suggests no immunity and no protection if they were reinfected.

It's worse in human vaccine trials where there aren't high levels of antibodies or in the recently published Oxford human trials only around 45% of subjects developed immunity, although this increased to around 57% if they were given two doses of the vaccine. There were also many reported side effects htat another medication have to be given for.

This is the vaccine trial that progressed to human subjects after 100% failure in the rhesus monkey trials where they all got the virus.

The other human trial recently reported was the US Moderna backed trials that Trump has poured 100s of millions into, recently published initial results showing that the vaccine worked to trigger an immune response with mild side effects -- fatigue, chills, headache, muscle pain, pain at the injection site. The Phase 1 study included 45 healthy adults, ages 18 to 55, who received two vaccinations of the mRNA-1237 vaccine candidate 28 days apart.

There is no information about how many subjects produced antibodies to the virus. "We thought the immune responses look promising, but we don't know whether the levels we're seeing would actually protect against infection. It's really hard to know that until you do the actual efficacy trial," said Dr Lisa Jackson.

They are looking to enrol 30,000 adults for Phase 3 studies.

However with the published results that immunity doesn't last in subjects who developed antibodies naturally, which in every other disease case is longer lasting than a vaccine, is changing human RNA an acceptable risk?.
 

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