List Mgmt. Poll - What stops JTR (Minimum trade for Pick 1)

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

I want us to back ourselves and take clearly the best kid.

Get our young Non-WA kids around him and settle him in.

But I've always had this funny feeling we'll either do a weird trade late or take a random player with pick 1.

There's a 0% chance of the Eagles staying at pick 1 and choosing someone other than Reid. That selection (and Reid himself) have way too much value to just sit there and pick a different player. If they rate someone else higher, fine, but they'd definitely have to trade down and get as much capital as they can for that #1 pick.

 

[Barrybran]

I hate to break it to you guys, but I feel like 2 and 6 would do it for pieman. This 3 way trade makes sense for all teams:

Norf in: 1, 11
Norf out: 2, 3

Norf can take Murphy at 11 and then say that "we had him ranked 7th on our board, no really."

Melb in: 3
Melb out: 6, 11

They get their guy in Durrsma.

WCE in: 2, 6
WCE out: 1

1. Reid
2. McKercher
3. Durrsma
4. Watson
5. Sanders
6. Curtin

We end up with the best pure midfielder and the number one ranked WA boy.

If I'm Melbourne I want pick 23 as well. There's not a huge incentive for them to get involved if they're not getting pick 1. I think that is a better outcome for North though.

 

[FKASC]

What in our history of never being down for long makes you think we will be down for long?

We’ve already been down for a couple of years and have just lost a number of senior players. Plus we have some other potential off field disruptions to come in the next year or two with Simpson and Nisbett.

Sure we might bounce back quickly. That’s why I said at the beginning of my post that the club needs to get its s**t together.

 

[xLeCrAs2x]

I’d be happy with 2 + 3 or 2 +6 + 17
So long as McKercher is taken at pick 2

McKercher and Curtin or Sanders plus Collard would be the ideal situation

If we trade pick 1 and take Curtin at 2 I’d melt

 

[WCE_Phill]

2, 6 and 17 would be a very, very strong offer. We’d be silly not to take it. I doubt they go that high to be honest.

As much as I want to see how good this guy is (and I voted accordingly), I can’t help but feel this #1 pick will buy us a 3 year (at most) ticket to The Harley Reid Show - when is he leaving, how can he stay there, Collingwood are offering $12m/8 Years, Hawthorn $15m/10 years, he really should leave, it’s expected he leaves, ‘Footy’s worst kept secret’ etc etc

The external pressure to even retain him will come IMMEDIATELY.

Harley himself….I don’t think he minds the attention - his managers (Paul Connors and co.) are already pimping him out, greasing palms of media scum bags like Sam McLure and the kid is talking about his clever answers in club interviews.
This isn’t the intelligent and reserved young Chris Judd we are dealing with here.

There is just something about this whole thing that makes me feel our club will be a small part in the story - the jilted lover - the ‘holding pattern’ before Harley finally ‘comes home’ - too big for little old Perth, he needs the bright lights of the ‘big city’ (and all that crap.)

Do we REALLY need that? Considering the current state of the club and the playing list?

Do we effectively risk wasting 2-3 years building a midfield/future around this guy only to have him bail - nominate a ‘contender’ and scrap together a ‘decent deal’ from the only club he will agree to be traded to?

Just a gut feel from this kid. Hope I am wrong.

Well said, I truly believe this guy will go back to Melbourne (where's there's smoke there is fire). You can tell he loves the attention and if he becomes as good as we think he'll be, then it will be a s**t show.

You know a big Melbourne club will come knocking

So if NM pony up a good deal such as 2 & 3 or 2, 6 & 11 (if Melb get involved) then we'll be mad not too.

Mind you, personally love for the club to stick it the vAFL media and keep pick 1 and JTR (but we need to play the long game and put the club first)

 

[flyinghi64]

Ah ha, another JTR thread. But this time a dedicated one.

As we always say "Just Take the best available"
Which this year translates to "Just Take Reid"

Have we ever had the opportunity to have first crack at the draft?
Even when we got Judd Hawks had first dibs and went Hodge, now that was a tough decision I reckon but no losers.

This year there is no tough decision, we currently have first dibs and the best available this year is potentially the best available since the Hodge/Judd draft. FS, Academy picks not included.

Yes there are some other really good players in the draft and if we secure 2-3 top 12 picks we may chance upon a A-grade gun, maybe 2. We may also get a really good player and a couple who just don't improve that much at the next level.
Roll the dice on a game turning, match winning AAA gun,
OR
Roll the dice on a couple of solid A-graders.

JUST
@#$@%^$
TAKE
REID

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Have we ever had the opportunity to have first crack at the draft?

Banfield and Gardiner

 

[LittleGreekGod]

Trade period (for players) is all but done and as the dust settles it’s now apparent the only viable suitor for any potential trade of pick 1 is North Melbourne. Armed with a trio of end of R1 priority picks spread over 2 years plus a fortuitous FA compo pick (3) for McKay they end trade week with picks 2,3,15,17,18.

No other club comes close to having the same arsenal to trade up. The next best (Hawthorn) reportedly had their offer of pick 4, their F1 and Brockman knocked back by West Coast, setting a high bar that rules out everyone bar North

Our list manager, Rohan O’Brien, remains open to trading the first pick of the draft for an unspecified price. If the pick isn’t traded, everyone not named Sam McClure expects West Coast will draft Harley Reid

As mentioned, North have the picks at their disposal, should they choose, to convince West Coast to part with pick 1. So the poll question becomes what is the minimum trade offer that posters believe necessary to relinquish Reid

I’ve made some assumptions when coming up with the poll options :

1) Any offer that doesn’t include pick 2 won’t be accepted. Hawthorn’s offer wasn’t unreasonable but presumably wasn’t accepted because pick 4 is too far down the order. And if we’re going to pass on the best player in the draft we aren’t going to give North access to the best two, so pick 3 I’ve ruled out as an option (unless it is with pick 2 as well)
2) North have 5x 1st round picks currently. I’m assuming they’ll want to hold on to at least 3 and preferably 4 first round picks after any trade for pick 1
3) While it’s possible an eventual trade might include an extra pick from West Coast I’ve ignored that possibility from the options for simplicity.
4) North have enough 2023 picks to do a trade so I’ve left out any future picks as I don’t think they’ll be a part of any trade
5) Whilst North have sufficient picks there’s a gap in value between pick 3 and 15 that has the potential to create an impasse. With that in mind, Melbourne with picks 6 and 11 could be brought in as a circuit breaker by trading those picks for pick 3 and leaving picks 2,6,11,15,17,18 as tradeable options

Which leaves the following poll options in order of worst to best - on the assumption that North make the offer what would it need to be for you to accept the trade

1) Picks 2 and 15 - the absolute minimum being the best of their late first rounders

2) Picks 2 and 11 - a slight improvement on (1) which involves Melbourne and means North effectively trade out 2&3 for 1&6 leaving us with 2&11 (for 1)

3) Picks 2,17 and 18 - two later picks (17,18) trumps one slightly earlier pick (11) and can be done without involving Melbourne. Leaves North with 1,3,15 but with the option of splitting 3 into 6 and 11

4) Picks 2,11 and 15 - this again involves Melbourne giving us better options along with 2 and leaves North with 1&6 (for 2,3,15) plus 17&18

5) Picks 2 and 6 - pick 6 likely gives us access to Curtin and would be preferable to 11 and 15 given the drop off in talent after pick 10ish. North are trading 2&3 for 1&11 whilst retaining 15,17,18

6) Picks 2,6 and 17 - because why not take 17 as well giving us a 3rd first round pick. North still have 11,15 and 18 to go with Reid

7) Picks 2 and 3 - according to Jay Clark this is our asking price and is most likely the sort of godfather offer guaranteed to get our attention. This also gives us the opportunity to further split 3 into 6 and 11 as an alternative

8) Picks 2 and 3 plus - acknowledging that some supporters are completely wedded to drafting Reid such that even picks 2 and 3 aren’t enough and something more would be needed

9) JTR - no trade, we’re closed for business. Just Take Reid.

Finally, this is not what you think will be offered by North or what you think West Coast will accept. It is about what, if it was your decision, would you need North to offer as a minimum to trade pick 1

There is a better option: WCE trade all their picks for all North Melbourne's Picks.

 

[flyinghi64]

I would also like to think, and hope, HR is from the same mold as a Voss, Johno Brown, Shuey and not a Buckley, JHF type.

A one club player who puts loyalty above money. They are out there.

 

[RookiePick]

Yeah we would have to get our s**t together on and off the field pretty quickly to instil confidence that we aren’t going to remain a rabble and are worth staying at. Not convinced we can achieve that.

The media circus around him the past few weeks is so far unlike anything we’ve ever seen before when it comes to a draftee. It’s not likely to stop once drafted, as you suggest

If he's drafted by us it will.

The heat will be back on in year 3 if he hasn't extended with us.

 

[Bender_]

Jacob Tan Rooyen

 

[Bender_]

Going on the record here and saying I won't be upset if we get the picks that land us McKercher, Curtin and a decent player in the teens.

 

[archiemoses]

Unless it's 2 and 3 at a minimum, JTR

 

[FKASC]

Going on the record here and saying I won't be upset if we get the picks that land us McKercher, Curtin and a decent player in the teens.

I had already resigned to be taking mckercher after we beat WB and after watching one (1) highlights video was convinced he would be superior to Reid anyway

 

[Bender_]

I had already resigned to be taking mckercher after we beat WB and after watching one (1) highlights video was convinced he would be superior to Reid anyway

It looks like power (Reid) vs skill (McKercher). That's not meant to be disrespectful to either of them by the way. I'd honestly be happy with either of them. But McKercher plus extras is pretty enticing...

 

[FKASC]

It looks like power (Reid) vs skill (McKercher). That's not meant to be disrespectful to either of them by the way. I'd honestly be happy with either of them. But McKercher plus extras is pretty enticing...

Copium etc

 

[illegaleagle]

I had already resigned to be taking mckercher after we beat WB and after watching one (1) highlights video was convinced he would be superior to Reid anyway
except we wouldn’t of had pick 2 would of been pick 3 after mckay compensation. So likely we would of had choice or curtain or Durrsma and our second rounder would of been at pick 25

 

[FKASC]

But we would of had pick 3 as north would have had 1 and 2, so would of been curtia

except we wouldn’t of had pick 2 would of been pick 3 after mckay compensation. So likely we would of had choice or curtain or Durrsma and our second rounder would of been at pick 25

Yes, we know that now

 

[dajesmac]

I think if we got 2 and 3 we could easily trade 3 for more value than 6 and 17

I disagree. Pick 3 does not hold proportionate trade value to pick 1, the talent spread is more even between those picks.

 

[dajesmac]

Like 6 and 11

That'd be a pretty bold trade from the Dees to prefer pick 3 to those two picks. Can't see that happening.

 

[amazingjoshy]

I'd take 2 & 3 or maybe 2, 6 and 17

Have the feeling the club would do 2 & 6 though if it were offered. 2 picks in "the first part of the draft" before it evens out (ROBs words) and I reckon they'd do it.

 

[The Passenger]

2, 6 and 17 (or 2 and 3) but I can't see either of them being offered. It's pretty big overs, even taking into account this years #1 has more value than your typical #1 draft pick.

JTR and deal with the pressures of it over the next few years.

 

[Keys]

That'd be a pretty bold trade from the Dees to prefer pick 3 to those two picks. Can't see that happening.

It depends on how much they rate Duursma and Melbourne haven’t been shy to trade up in drafts - I was surprised how much they gave up to get 11 so they have form

It’s all just us talking shut though - who really knows what will happen

 

[dajesmac]

It depends on how much they rate Duursma and Melbourne haven’t been shy to trade up in drafts - I was surprised how much they gave up to get 11 so they have form

It’s all just us talking shut though - who really knows what will happen

Sure, but they're reportedly just taking the two picks. 6 & 17 is a hell of a price to pay for Zane Duursma, whereas the big move to upgrade from 14 to 11 is inconsequential if they are just taking the two picks. Maybe if they're huge fans of Duursma, 3 & 23 would be the move for 6 & 11. It doesn't make sense in my mind but I guess that's just one bloke's opinion.

 

[archiemoses]

Just pick 2 is enough for pick 1 based on shinbeggars logic. We are way off boys.