Polls Thread Mk III

[Baltimore Jack]

So 14% off the Lib’s primary and 17% of 2pp since Shorten became leader, even accounting for a protest vote that’s impressive

So the combined alp and green is ~26% as is the combined two independents. Which combined is 52%
Looks like votes from even smaller blocks will decide.Phelps needs to be the second last standing, or most of her votes will go liberal

Undecided's will be very important too

 

[medusala]

Do you know if Murdoch has a paper in Israel?

Anti semitic slur, classy.

 

[Elroo]

ALP cant even manage a lead in the primary vote. Staggering.

The ALP can't lead in the primary vote against a Coalition of Parties?

 

[its free real estate]

The ALP can't lead in the primary vote against a Coalition of Parties?

The Coalition doesn’t compete, so their primary votes aren’t additive

 

[Elroo]

The Coalition doesn’t compete, so their primary votes aren’t additive

The post the Foot stool was responding to was the combined Primary vote of the Liberal & National Party v the ALP;

Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (+1) ALP 36 (-1)

Also

https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/fairfax...r-continues-lead-coalition?platform=hootsuite

Primary vote
The Liberal National Coalition primary share of the vote is just ahead of the Labor Party at 35% versus 34% in the second quarter of 2018.

 

[its free real estate]

The post the Foot stool was responding to was the combined Primary vote of the Liberal & National Party v the ALP;



Also

https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/fairfax...r-continues-lead-coalition?platform=hootsuite

LNP are effectively a single party.

 

[Elroo]

LNP are effectively a single party.

Its the Liberal and National Party, called the Coalition.

Tell that to the AEC and National party members - they are 2-seperate parties in a Coalition hence the name; the stupidity of the London Mouth in not realising this is astonishing!

 

[Number37]

LNP are effectively a single party.

LOL.

Are you a groundsman by trade? You love moving the goal posts.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Anti semitic slur, classy.

Seems you've hitched your wagon to the 'anti-semite' train....Nothing to do with the Pommie tabloids tossing that misnomer about Willy-nilly towards Jeremy Corbyn though, these past 18 months or so I'll bet.

 

[its free real estate]

Its the Liberal and National Party, called the Coalition.

Tell that to the AEC and National party members - they are 2-seperate parties in a Coalition hence the name; the stupidity of the London Mouth in not realising this is astonishing!

And you don't get it. On that breakdown, the Nationals take 37% of the primary votes in all the seats they contest, and the Liberals take 37% of the primary votes in theirs. It's not two parties summing to 37%, it's two parties averaging 37% in the seats they separately contest.

 

[Elroo]

And you don't get it. On that breakdown, the Nationals take 37% of the primary votes in all the seats they contest, and the Liberals take 37% of the primary votes in theirs. It's not two parties summing to 37%, it's two parties averaging 37% in the seats they separately contest.

I get it, the London mouth was comparing the primary vote of the ALP v a primary vote of coalition of parties that are added together into a single primary vote.

On that breakdown, the Nationals take 37% of the primary votes in all the seats they contest, and the Liberals take 37% of the primary votes in theirs. It's not two parties summing to 37%, it's two parties averaging 37% in the seats they separately contes

Only on BF!

 

[its free real estate]

I get it, the London mouth was comparing the primary vote of the ALP v a Coalition that form the Liberal/National Coalition.



Only on BF!

That the LNP exist as a coalition of two parties is immaterial - when was the last time the Nationals didn't side with the Libs? They function as a single party, and have for as long as both parties have existed.

You sound like a political neophyte.

 

[Elroo]

That the LNP exist as a coalition of two parties is immaterial - when was the last time the Nationals didn't side with the Libs? They function as a single party, and have for as long as both parties have existed.

You sound like a political neophyte.

Yeh its material, as a matter its the entire basis of the conversation that the ALP primary vote is being compared to the combined primary vote of numerous opposing political parties; Liberal party, Liberal National Party, The Nationals and the Country Liberals (NT).

 

[its free real estate]

Yeh its material, as a matter its the entire basis of the conversation that the ALP primary vote is being compared to the combined primary vote of numerous opposing political parties; Liberal party, Liberal National Party, The Nationals and the Country Liberals (NT).

What a ground breaking revelation, Malcolm Mackerras! The Coalition, which has governed federally for ~70% of the time post WW2, is actually made up of different parties!

I guess we should put the primary breakdown at ALP 36%, Liberals 29%, and Nationals 8%, in the off chance the Nationals and ALP form a coalition.

 

[Elroo]

What a ground breaking revelation, Malcolm Mackerras! The Coalition, which has governed federally for ~70% of the time post WW2, is actually made up of different parties!

I guess we should put the primary breakdown at ALP 36%, Liberals 29%, and Nationals 8%, in the off chance the Nationals and ALP form a coalition.

What a ground breaking revelation, Malcolm Mackerras! The Coalition, which has governed federally for ~70% of the time post WW2, is actually made up of different parties!

No s**t, the Coalition is made up of multiple parties, hence why the London posters comment about the primary vote of the ALP versus a coalition of parties was as ignorant as your own contributions in this thread!

 

[its free real estate]

your inability to understand that the Coaltion primary vote is made up of multiple parties versus's the ALP is astounding!

I understand that. And I know that the National party and Liberal parties derive their primary vote from different populations, therefore the sampling effect is consistent across the country - ie they are not additive. So while they govern together as an effective single party, and their primary votes are each derived from different electorates, the primary vote can be read together.

Which is what has happened in polling for generations. Do you understand that?

Or are you going to continue to sign off with glib hashtags like an easy mark that was duped into paying a few grand to watch Bill Clinton speak?

 

[Elroo]

I understand that. And I know that the National party and Liberal parties derive their primary vote from different populations, therefore the sampling effect is consistent across the country - ie they are not additive. So while they govern together as an effective single party, and their primary votes are each derived from different electorates, the primary vote can be read together.

Which is what has happened in polling for generations. Do you understand that?

Or are you going to continue to sign off with glib hashtags like an easy mark that was duped into paying a few grand to watch Bill Clinton speak?

Well done, its only taken you multiple posts to final comprehend that the coalition is made up of multiple parties, Liberal party, Liberal National Party, The Nationals and the Country Liberals (NT).

different populations,

Multiple parties.

 

[Crankyhawk]

What a ground breaking revelation, Malcolm Mackerras! The Coalition, which has governed federally for ~70% of the time post WW2, is actually made up of different parties!

I guess we should put the primary breakdown at ALP 36%, Liberals 29%, and Nationals 8%, in the off chance the Nationals and ALP form a coalition.

Wouldn’t be the craziest thing for nationals to knife liberals and move to cross bench

 

[NSWCROW]

PLUS TEN

 

[Forward Press]

Interesting seeing the 5% extra votes for the LNP and ALP but the Greens remain steady. Where are they coming from?

 

[Number37]

PLUS TEN

 

[Generalissimo]

Interesting seeing the 5% extra votes for the LNP and ALP but the Greens remain steady. Where are they coming from?

It's basically got to be One Notion and the Xenophon mob doesn't it?

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[Forward Press]

A bit of a difference between Newspoll and Ipsos. Would be interesting to look at methodology for both of them.

 

[Gough]

The ppm figures remain a mystery to me. Abbott always trailed as has Shorten, regardless of opponent and yet for both look like they'll be remembered as leading their party to a decent sized win.