Polls Thread Mk III

[Maggie5]

https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/national/index.htm

Here are the enrolment statistics for the last 8 years. Show me the facts that support you position.

I am not sure what your are posting about as the numbers for enrollments have increased each year especially between 2016-2017, some 300K with only $100K the following year.
2016 - National 15,787,514
2017 - National 16,076,433
2018 - National 16,176,487

 

[Hornberger]

I am not sure what your are posting about as the numbers for enrollments have increased each year especially between 2016-2017, some 300K with only $100K the following year.
2016 - National 15,787,514
2017 - National 16,076,433
2018 - National 16,176,487

I have already said there was an increase in enrollments nationally that was attributable to SSM survey. My point is that there was no material effect in Victoria. It would therefore by wrong to attribute the apparent polling error to the SSM survey.

Victorian enrollments also increased in 2015 from 3,791,254 to 3,881,493,
which wasn't an election year of any sort.

By comparison, in 2017 enrollment increased from 3,996,622 to 4,076,241.

There was fewer new enrollments in 2017 (80k) than 2015 (90k).

 

[Maggie5]

I have already said there was an increase in enrollments nationally that was attributable to SSM survey. My point is that there was no material effect in Victoria. It would therefore by wrong to attribute the apparent polling error to the SSM survey.

Victorian enrollments also increased in 2015 from 3,791,254 to 3,881,493,
which wasn't an election year of any sort.

By comparison, in 2017 enrollment increased from 3,996,622 to 4,076,241.

There was fewer new enrollments in 2017 (80k) than 2015 (90k).

I think that it would be worthwhile waiting as a number of the 'missing' from the role is quite high. A friend who worked during the week-end said at her booth that many 'young' people stated they had enrolled but didn't appear on the roll.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Higgins, ReachTel, ~1000 respondents, collected on 27/11

LIB: 39 (-13)
ALP: 33 (+18)
GRN: 19 (-6)

LIB: 47 (-14)
ALP: 53 (+14)

 

[Dry Rot]

Higgins, ReachTel, ~1000 respondents, collected on 27/11

LIB: 39 (-13)
ALP: 33 (+18)
GRN: 19 (-6)

LIB: 47 (-14)
ALP: 53 (+14)

**** it would be funny if the Cowhead Woman lost her seat.

 

[Forward Press]

Higgins, ReachTel, ~1000 respondents, collected on 27/11

LIB: 39 (-13)
ALP: 33 (+18)
GRN: 19 (-6)

LIB: 47 (-14)
ALP: 53 (+14)

Surely not. Liberal heartland for essentially its entire history but this kind of result would be massive.

A Shorten landslide with Warringah and Higgins falling would bring so many lulz.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Surely not. Liberal heartland for essentially its entire history but this kind of result would be massive.

A Shorten landslide with Warringah and Higgins falling would bring so many lulz.

Tribal loyalty probably kicks in as election day approaches, so I wouldn't get my hopes up, yet.

Still, it's proof that it isn't just STATE ISSUES, and Labor should expand be expanding their battleground to all of those Eastern suburbs.

 

[GreyCrow]

Tribal loyalty probably kicks in as election day approaches, so I wouldn't get my hopes up, yet.

Still, it's proof that it isn't just STATE ISSUES, and Labor should expand be expanding their battleground to all of those Eastern suburbs.

Can tribal loyalty find 14/11% ?

 

[Pessimistic]

Huge swings in the poshest booths in Victoria. Over 10% against.

Maybe a protest vote in what is thought of as a safe seat? If liberal votes are more aware they could remove a sitting liberal MP, they might be a little more circumspect.

Also bigger swings against on Election Day Than in pre polling, which the Libs found ‘encouraging’ then the tsunami hit.

 

[Hoops]

Higgins, ReachTel, ~1000 respondents, collected on 27/11

LIB: 39 (-13)
ALP: 33 (+18)
GRN: 19 (-6)

LIB: 47 (-14)
ALP: 53 (+14)

I was part of that survey, and I'm not in her seat, not to sure of the accuracy

 

[NTRabbit]

A reminder that single seat polling is notoriously unreliable

 

[Badesumofu]

I was part of that survey, and I'm not in her seat, not to sure of the accuracy

I got surveyed by one the phone polls during the Tasmanian State election earlier this year. Essential maybe. Well I say I got polled, I should say I got polled three times. In one evening. They do adjust these things for demographics to try to get a representative sample, but still it makes you wonder.

 

[Van_Dyke]

Higgins, ReachTel, ~1000 respondents, collected on 27/11

LIB: 39 (-13)
ALP: 33 (+18)
GRN: 19 (-6)

LIB: 47 (-14)
ALP: 53 (+14)

I’ll believe it when I see it, IIRC the Libs have always won Higgins on first preferences alone.

 

[Elroo]

NSW

 

[Baltimore Jack]

NSW

Holy s**t

 

[NSWCROW]

Galaxy

 

[NSWCROW]

Reachtel



Jesus imagine how bad they'd be without the foley stuff !!!

 

[Forward Press]

How can you have an opposition leader resign due to a sexual harassment scandal (and dragging it out via a threat of legal action) and still be in front of the 2PP?

I’ll believe it when I see it, IIRC the Libs have always won Higgins on first preferences alone.

I believe that is the case, yes. I mean we might have our reasons for hating on Kelly O'Dwyer but she hasn't done anything to warrant being booted to the general public. Many voters in Higgins would struggle to know what she looks like.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I believe that is the case, yes. I mean we might have our reasons for hating on Kelly O'Dwyer but she hasn't done anything to warrant being booted to the general public. Many voters in Higgins would struggle to know what she looks like.

She was the main LNP spokesperson for the argument that there should not be a Banking Royal Commission

 

[Forward Press]

She was the main LNP spokesperson for the argument that there should not be a Banking Royal Commission

Like I said, objectionable to us but to the average voter she hasn't been mired in a scandal or become the face of the Turnbull backstab.

 

[Dry Rot]

Many voters in Higgins would struggle to know what O'Dwyer looks like.

That's an advantage in life.

 

[DaRick]

That's an advantage in life.

Hell, it worked for Peter Dutton for many years.

I reckon Dutton increasing his profile recently has actually harmed his re-election chances rather than helped them.

 

[Crankyhawk]

How can you have an opposition leader resign due to a sexual harassment scandal (and dragging it out via a threat of legal action) and still be in front of the 2PP?



I believe that is the case, yes. I mean we might have our reasons for hating on Kelly O'Dwyer but she hasn't done anything to warrant being booted to the general public. Many voters in Higgins would struggle to know what she looks like.

That in itself is a reason they may boot her.
Although she is IPA shill she has been socially progressive (she was very pro ssm for example) this may be enough to retain the true liberal base

 

[NTRabbit]

How can you have an opposition leader resign due to a sexual harassment scandal (and dragging it out via a threat of legal action) and still be in front of the 2PP?

It's NSW.

Golden rule of Auspol, the worst branch of everything is always the NSW branch.

 

[DaRick]

I had always been under the impression that the NSW Liberals were relatively competent whereas the NSW ALP was the most dysfunctional branch in the nation.

Is that perception incorrect?