Polls Thread Mk III

[Golden_6]

Greens tend to average around 12%, the poll has a 3% margin of error. The difference between 12% and 15% is not statistically significant.

I think the Greens will definitely get a higher vote than usual. It’s 3 years since 2019 so an additional group of 18-21 who support a lot of the Green policies and an additional 3 years of the elderly passing on that wouldn’t dream of voting for the Greens.

Given there’s a lot of inaction on some serious issues from the two major parties, it’s not hard to see why a % of voters will shift towards them.

 

[Forward Press]

I think the Greens will definitely get a higher vote than usual. It’s 3 years since 2019 so an additional group of 18-21 who support a lot of the Green policies and an additional 3 years of the elderly passing on that wouldn’t dream of voting for the Greens.

Given there’s a lot of inaction on some serious issues from the two major parties, it’s not hard to see why a % of voters will shift towards them.

It's also 3 years of more left wing people becoming inevitably more conservative as they grow older.

If the Greens get 15% primary vote I will change my supported team to Fremantle for the rest of the year. Have they even surpassed 15% in their history in Federal elections?

 

[Golden_6]

It's also 3 years of more left wing people becoming inevitably more conservative as they grow older.

If the Greens get 15% primary vote I will change my supported team to Fremantle for the rest of the year. Have they even surpassed 15% in their history in Federal elections?

I know in my circles (27 years old) a lot of people will be voting the Greens this year after being apathetic to elections in the past. They can’t even remember who they voted for in the past. Just an anecdotal experience.

I’ll preference them 2nd this year because I know a lot of their policies are unsustainable but they will definitely have a much bigger share of the vote this time around.

 

[Kyptastic]

And a 1-4% primary lead over labor for most of the campaign depending which poll you look at: which firmed by 2-4% in the actual poll 8% over labor delivering a one seat majority.

I’m reading the best they can do this time is to match labor in primaries (in the actual vote), which may be the hung parliament scenario as the non TP primaries could be all over the place, plenty of three ways with greens independents

Opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

At this stage, the Liberals need all the undecideds to break their way to match the result from the 2019 election. That's highly unlikely.

 

[Pessimistic]

At this stage, the Liberals need all the undecideds to break their way to match the result from the 2019 election. That's highly unlikely.

That’s my assessment, although all the non TP major votes will make it very interesting

 

[Hornberger]

I think the Greens will definitely get a higher vote than usual. It’s 3 years since 2019 so an additional group of 18-21 who support a lot of the Green policies and an additional 3 years of the elderly passing on that wouldn’t dream of voting for the Greens.

Given there’s a lot of inaction on some serious issues from the two major parties, it’s not hard to see why a % of voters will shift towards them.

The Greens got 10.4% last election, so even 12% would be a significant increase and would beat their previous best of 11.8% from 2010. That is before you factor in the possibility of people who would be ordinarily be greens supporters tactically voting for teal independents.

 

[Forward Press]

The Greens got 10.4% last election, so even 12% would be a significant increase and would beat their previous best of 11.8% from 2010. That before you factor in the possibility of people who would be ordinarily be greens supporters tactically voting for teal independents.

Yep, this. I doubt they will get much more than 10%. They seem to have found their niche and any moves towards attracting more votes will cause their core to fracture more. Think they are content having the occasional seat or two in the House of Reps and the majority of the balance of power in the Senate.

 

[Proper Gander]

It's also 3 years of more left wing people becoming inevitably more conservative as they grow older.

If the Greens get 15% primary vote I will change my supported team to Fremantle for the rest of the year. Have they even surpassed 15% in their history in Federal elections?

Wait on, enough of the ‘inevitably’ mate. I’m getting older and am showing no signs of going all conservative LNP lover at this point.

I would, however, be interested in seeing you as a Freo man for the year. That would be interesting. So go greens!

 

[Forward Press]

Wait on, enough of the ‘inevitably’ mate. I’m getting older and am showing no signs of going all conservative LNP lover at this point.

I would, however, be interested in seeing you as a Freo man for the year. That would be interesting. So go greens!

I know you and many others defy the trend, but the simple political reality is that older people tend to lean conservative, and younger people tend to lean liberal.

It would also partially explain why parties have tended to drift right as the population gets older. And I will happily wear purple on BigFooty if the Greens get 15%+ in the House of Reps.

 

[Gough]

I know you and many others defy the trend, but the simple political reality is that older people tend to lean conservative, and younger people tend to lean liberal.

It would also partially explain why parties have tended to drift right as the population gets older. And I will happily wear purple on BigFooty if the Greens get 15%+ in the House of Reps.

The aging demographic are Gen X and conservatism is never anything we've been collectively known for.

 

[Hornberger]

I thought It was interesting that for the most recent Resolve Strategic poll, they switched from asking people which party they would vote for to asking people which candidate they would vote for.

This caused the primary vote for Independents to drop from 9% to 4%, while the Greens primary vote increased from 11% to 15%. This suggests that in seats without a high profile independent, the anti-LNP protest vote is going to the Greens. This could be quite significant in seats like Griffith, Brisbane, Richmond, Higgins and McNamara. The Greens could actually pick up a couple of seats in lower house, and maybe even take the balance of power in both houses.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Average of the major betting agencies

ALP $1.39
LNP $2.95

My $2.04 looking very good

 

[Hornberger]

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45; Roy Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor - The Poll Bludger

Two more data points to suggest that the early campaign momentum to the Coalition is not being maintained.

www.pollbludger.net

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Goldstein

LNP: 33
Zoe Daniel, IND: 33
ALP: 13
GRN: 8
Undecided: 6

+ small fry right-wing parties

Poll points to tight contest in Goldstein between Wilson and Daniel

A new poll in the once-safe Victorian Liberal seat of Goldstein shows incumbent Liberal Tim Wilson and his independent challenger Zoe Daniel tied at 33 per cent each on the primary vote.

www.afr.com

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Goldstein

LNP: 33
Zoe Daniel, IND: 33
ALP: 13
GRN: 8
Undecided: 6

+ small fry right-wing parties

Poll points to tight contest in Goldstein between Wilson and Daniel

A new poll in the once-safe Victorian Liberal seat of Goldstein shows incumbent Liberal Tim Wilson and his independent challenger Zoe Daniel tied at 33 per cent each on the primary vote.

www.afr.com

On those figure, its not tight at all. Daniel would win fairly comfortably

 

[Gough]

Goldstein

LNP: 33
Zoe Daniel, IND: 33
ALP: 13
GRN: 8
Undecided: 6

+ small fry right-wing parties

Poll points to tight contest in Goldstein between Wilson and Daniel

A new poll in the once-safe Victorian Liberal seat of Goldstein shows incumbent Liberal Tim Wilson and his independent challenger Zoe Daniel tied at 33 per cent each on the primary vote.

www.afr.com

Don't like Wilson's chances on preferences looking at that.

 

[Hornberger]

Don't like Wilson's chances on preferences looking at that.

I very much like Wilson's chances (0% would be optimal).

 

[Hank Scorpion]

I'd still be a touch skeptical it's that big a margin (maybe 60-40)

But the polls in these seats are suggesting the same thing. If the Liberals are in this much trouble in the 4 teal seats seen as most vulnerable, then it probably suggests safer ones like Curtin and Mackellar will at least be competitive.

 

[Number37]

Brunswick values must include taking a baseball bat to the member for Goldstein's chances.

 

[Kyptastic]

I'd still be a touch skeptical it's that big a margin (maybe 60-40)

But the polls in these seats are suggesting the same thing. If the Liberals are in this much trouble in the 4 teal seats seen as most vulnerable, then it probably suggests safer ones like Curtin and Mackellar will at least be competitive.

Of the four main ones, I think Zimmerman might squeak through, the last polls I saw suggests that there's not a clear second favourite there between the Labor and Independent candidate (Much like Higgins where Labor and Greens are fighting it out for the second spot behind Allen). I actually think Falinski in Mackellar is in more trouble, Scamps team is almsot as big as the Zoe Daniels/Monique Ryan movements.

 

[Number37]

I'd still be a touch skeptical it's that big a margin (maybe 60-40)

But the polls in these seats are suggesting the same thing. If the Liberals are in this much trouble in the 4 teal seats seen as most vulnerable, then it probably suggests safer ones like Curtin and Mackellar will at least be competitive.

58-42 to 40-60 would be a complete humiliation.

 

[Fire]

It's also 3 years of more left wing people becoming inevitably more conservative as they grow older.

There's probably a slight trend with this, but I really dont thimk it's what it used to be.

The boomers who grew up in the summer of love turned conservative once they started sucking up the wealth and rushed to close the gate behind them. The younger generations have nothing to gain by voting conservative simply because they have nothing to conserve.

Whether that plays a role this year is doubtful because there's still a ton of boomers. But at some point in the future this trend will become less impactful.


On SM-G955U1 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pessimistic]

Alp 34 plus green 15 = 49. LNP 33 plus UAP 5 plus ON 5 =43. 8 left over which would need to split 1 ALP 7 LNP to be equal. Allow 3% for ‘silent Australians’
Over simplifying but it’s a swing away in the order of 1.5 to 4.5% but it will be all over the place and a significant number of three way contests


Short answer. Scomo had a poll defying miracle in 2019. He’ll need double that miracle in 2022.

 

[Pessimistic]

There's probably a slight trend with this, but I really dont thimk it's what it used to be.

The boomers who grew up in the summer of love turned conservative once they started sucking up the wealth and rushed to close the gate behind them. The younger generations have nothing to gain by voting conservative simply because they have nothing to conserve.

Whether that plays a role this year is doubtful because there's still a ton of boomers. But at some point in the future this trend will become less impactful.


On SM-G955U1 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Some people who are technically boomers left school in the mid seventies with the oil crash and globalisation (manufacturing jobs going to emerging economies) not to mention thatcher and reagan

 

[Vader]

Alp 34 plus green 15 = 49. LNP 33 plus UAP 5 plus ON 5 =43. 8 left over which would need to split 1 ALP 7 LNP to be equal. Allow 3% for ‘silent Australians’
Over simplifying but it’s a swing away in the order of 1.5 to 4.5% but it will be all over the place and a significant number of three way contests

Odd Notion votes don't go 100% to the LNP, as Green votes tend to do. It's usually a 60/40 split (give or take), in favour of the LNP.