Polls Thread Mk III

[Vindicater]

Poll for Chinese Australians (6093 participants)
ALP 75%
LNP 18%

This compares to 2019
LNP 61
ALP 28

Where is this from?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Where is this from?

“A poll-shaped object from online Chinese-language media outlet Sydney Today. The poll w/ 6093 Chinese participants in Australia had ALP at almost 75% & under 18% for L/NP. This compares to 2019 #ausvotes poll they did where it was L/NP 61%, ALP 28%”

 

[pjcrows]

Methodology?

 

[DaRick]

If that poll is anywhere near accurate, then the ALP's chances of winning Reid/Chisholm/Bennelong have risen markedly. Also Brisbane to a lesser extent.

It also gives makes them more likely to hold on to Parramatta.

 

[wizcapper]

“A poll-shaped object from online Chinese-language media outlet Sydney Today. The poll w/ 6093 Chinese participants in Australia had ALP at almost 75% & under 18% for L/NP. This compares to 2019 #ausvotes poll they did where it was L/NP 61%, ALP 28%”

From this guy?

https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz

Red Rabble Oz? Osmond Chiu? Policy maker for the CPS Union?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

From this guy?

https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz

Red Rabble Oz? Osmond Chiu? Policy maker for the CPS Union?

They are just reposting it.

The poll was done by the Chinese language rag Sydney Today, and the Australian then picked it up

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Ned_Flanders]

its gunna be close - reckon we will have a lot more seats decided during the week than we are typically used to

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Newscorp claiming secret internal ALP polling has the 2PP at 53 -47

With the ALP holding between 76 and 80 seats

 

[pjcrows]

Take "secret/leaked" internal polling with a grain of salt, on both sides. The information is given for a purpose.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Morgan this afternoon

53 - 47

 

[Baltimore Jack]

As of today:

Morgan 53 - 47
Ipsos 53 - 47
ALP Internal 53 - 47

Newscorp out tonght

 

[Pessimistic]

There’s a figure in there for the LNP primary with a two in front of it

 

[aCunningPlan]

As of today:

Morgan 53 - 47
Ipsos 53 - 47
ALP Internal 53 - 47

Newscorp out tonght

Newspoll ALP 53-47

 

[Fire]

Usually I would say that's a pretty solid indication that well see a much narrower margin of error reflected in the actual vote.

But like, come on. These polls were all wildly different all campaign. Consistent with themselves and showing the same general trends, but with different headline numbers. Now all of a sudden, the day before the election, they are aligned? I doubt they have any actual data integrity and are likley fudging the numbers to blend in with the pack.

On SM-G955U1 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[DaRick]

Usually I would say that's a pretty solid indication that well see a much narrower margin of error reflected in the actual vote.

But like, come on. These polls were all wildly different all campaign. Consistent with themselves and showing the same general trends, but with different headline numbers. Now all of a sudden, the day before the election, they are aligned? I doubt they have any actual data integrity and are likley fudging the numbers to blend in with the pack.

On SM-G955U1 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Resolve/Essential were lower on 2PP, and Roy Morgan/Newspoll have a simiar level of bias, but I'm surprised that Ipsos is aligned with those two - Ipsos is certainly more ALP-leaning.

One consolation is that preference flows for the ALP should be better than in 2019. Greens preference flows should be higher (up to 90/10), UAP's should be lower (60/40) and ON's should be similar (65/35). The teal voters would favour the LNP, but it's an open question as to how much given that they're giving ScoMo the finger (maybe 65/35, with a good chunk of the remainder going to The Greens).

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Essential Poll
Albo Approval 59%

 

[Forward Press]

Essential Poll
Albo Approval 59%

All new PMs get this kind of bounce don't they? If he maintains it for the first 100 days then there'd be something to write about.

In the end, the final 2PP is 52/48 - that means the polls were right.

 

[Vader]

All new PMs get this kind of bounce don't they? If he maintains it for the first 100 days then there'd be something to write about.

In the end, the final 2PP is 52/48 - that means the polls were right.

Apparently it's the best post-election approval rating since Krudd in 2007, so no - not every new PM gets this kind of bounce.

Mind you, the only valid comparison is Abbott in 2013, and it's no great surprise that Abbott never had an approval bounce.

 

[Fire]

All new PMs get this kind of bounce don't they? If he maintains it for the first 100 days then there'd be something to write about.

In the end, the final 2PP is 52/48 - that means the polls were right.

So here's a question;
The AEC doesnt count the preferences of the parties left once 50 is reached do they?
So does that mean that in the seats where the independents won against the lnp, on a 2pp basis all the liberal votes are counted but none if the labor votes are? (Even though a lot of the winning INDs may have preferences labor?)

Because if so then a 2PP result becomes increasingly inaccurate for ever crossbencher elected. (Or even final 2). If you were to have a vote everywhere with just the two parties then the preference to labor would be much higher than the official 2PP figure.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

So here's a question;
The AEC doesnt count the preferences of the parties left once 50 is reached do they?
So does that mean that in the seats where the independents won against the lnp, on a 2pp basis all the liberal votes are counted but none if the labor votes are? (Even though a lot of the winning INDs may have preferences labor?)

Because if so then a 2PP result becomes increasingly inaccurate for ever crossbencher elected. (Or even final 2). If you were to have a vote everywhere with just the two parties then the preference to labor would be much higher than the official 2PP figure.

The AEC will eventually conduct a LNP-ALP preference count in all seats, regardless if a crossbencher was elected. So the national 2PP will reflect this.


The notional results can be interesting. Warringah and Mayo were only 52-48 LNP wins last time - they will probably be shown as notional ALP seats after this year (maybe Goldstein too.) Although in practice, if the independent disappears, it never eventuates quite like that - but it still shows how the electoral tectonics are shifting.

 

[Fire]

The AEC will eventually conduct a LNP-ALP preference count in all seats, regardless if a crossbencher was elected. So the national 2PP will reflect this.


The notional results can be interesting. Warringah and Mayo were only 52-48 LNP wins last time - they will probably be shown as notional ALP seats after this year (maybe Goldstein too.) Although in practice, if the independent disappears, it never eventuates quite like that - but it still shows how the electoral tectonics are shifting.

Ah I see! So that means at some stage well have an updated 2PP? Do you know if its traditionally deviated much from the initial counts?

I imagine there may be a few % difference in favour of the ALP once these are factored in; maybe even 55-45?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Ah I see! So that means at some stage well have an updated 2PP? Do you know if its traditionally deviated much from the initial counts?

I imagine there may be a few % difference in favour of the ALP once these are factored in; maybe even 55-45?

It'll be no more than a fraction of a %. The ABC etc. will have been forecasting the national 2PP based on an estimate of how the elected crossbenchers' votes would theoretically flow on preferences.

Their working estimate would have to be impossibly out across several seats to have any meaningful impact on the national figure.

Some already look to have been counted and are in line with expectation. Kooyoong came out as 54-46 LIB-ALP

Kooyong, VIC - AEC Tally Room

Kooyong, VIC

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

 

[Fire]

It'll be no more than a fraction of a %. The ABC etc. will have been forecasting the national 2PP based on an estimate of how the elected crossbenchers' votes would theoretically flow on preferences.

Their working estimate would have to be impossibly out across several seats to have any meaningful impact on the national figure.

Some already look to have been counted and are in line with expectation. Kooyoong came out as 54-46 LIB-ALP

Kooyong, VIC - AEC Tally Room

Kooyong, VIC

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

Ah so they've already factored the estimates in? Fair enough! I thought the AEC figure would have been 'official'.