Preview Port Adelaide vs Essendon

[Jim Dixon]

So.. round 3 vs Essendon.



This was supposed to be a 'doddle'. That alone sets off alarm bells in my head. Think back to last year and our 'doddles' against Brisbane and Carlton.

So I'm a bit nervous about how we're going to go against Essendon.

I did extensive research for this post. Not only did I look at the stats for Essendon's last game but I actually watched them play Melbourne. The last quarter, anyway. As far as I can tell the Essendon strategy has two key components.

• work like mad
• kick it to Joe

We've had a problem with "Joe the Goose" this year and with Joe Daniher Essendon are well placed to capitalize. He took 15 marks against Melbourne, 9 were inside 50 and 7 were contested. He'd be quite a problem if he could only kick straight. Knowing our luck he'll probably kick at 100% this week.

They also drafted a kid called Darcy Parish who looked quite good and kicked the sealer with calm effectiveness.

You'll also see some old faces that you may recognise from other clubs. The Essendon 'top ups' include some 'has beens' who were actually really good in their day and even though they're past their best they are still talented footballers. And the 'never weres' are making the most of their year in the sun by working very hard.

So from a Port Adelaide point of view, if we go in with our half arsed attitude that we took to the Gabba last week, we could get done. Add to that the 'post showdown hangover'....oddly the last three showdowns we've lost, we've played Essendon the week after. We lost to the Bombers in 2014 and won last year. In 2012 we lost to Essendon by 50 points the week after losing to Adelaide.

The bookies have Essendon at $9 and the line is -50.5. But Melbourne was pretty strong favourites as well. Assume nothing!

Carn the Power!

 

[Portia]

How David Beats Goliath

David’s victory over Goliath, in the Biblical account, is held to be an anomaly. It was not. Davids win all the time. The political scientist Ivan Arreguín-Toft recently looked at every war fought in the past two hundred years between strong and weak combatants. The Goliaths, he found, won in 71.5 per cent of the cases. That is a remarkable fact. Arreguín-Toft was analyzing conflicts in which one side was at least ten times as powerful—in terms of armed might and population—as its opponent, and even in those lopsided contests the underdog won almost a third of the time.

How David Beats Goliath

TL;DR - they're just going to try and be accountable, but class can out. Need to watch out for Joe Daniher though, yes.

 

[Raffo]

Not very excited about this game. Nothing to gain and everything to lose really, unless of course we win by 100+

 

[Jonts]

Just hoping for a win and a 48k+

 

[finbarr]

Essendon and their fans are still campaigners. They're up and about at the moment, send them back to their foxholes.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Essendon and their fans are still campaigners. They're up and about at the moment, send them back to their foxholes.

I wouldn't be surprised if they do another march. It got their team up last week.

 

[Macca19]

Essendons counter attack was impressive on the weekend and Daniher proved a target that Melbourne just couldnt handle. The counter attack and their fast run through the middle is what worries me the most given whats happened in thefirst two weeks.

 

[bringbackbucky]

I really worry about this game and about the state of our list. Over the last two off-seasons we have loaded up like we are ready to fire a shot, only I don't think we have any midfield bullets to fire. Looking Brisbanesque for mine at the minute.

If we don't start well this could be a very dark night.

 

[KenOath]

Hombsch should be a good match up for Daniher. I'd back him in to shut him out of the game.

They'll be up and about early so we can't afford to give them a sniff with another slow start. They have a 'nothing to lose' attitude at the moment which could be dangerous if we don't take control of the game early.

Generally just looking for more accountability across the board and much better use of the footy...can't continue to operate at mid 60's DE and expect to win many games.

 

[Magus]

I don't even want to think about it tbh.

 

[Coobk001]

A major concern for me is that we've had a tendancy to drop multiple games in a row in the past. 2015 - Rnd 1-2, rnd 6-8, rnd 11-13, etc.

I mean look at last year, both those horror losses came after another loss.

Rnd 5 2015 - sitting pretty at 3-2, drop a 3 goal lead at home to WCE, then go and get beaten by the Lions.
Rnd 10 2015 - recover from dropping 3 in a row to get back to 5-5, lose to Geelong at home and then go and get beaten by Carlton.

Additionally Brisbane had looked horrible up until round 6 when they won their first for the year, then went on to beat us for their 2nd. Carlton also at round 12 had played horrible footy and only won 1 game, before they had a massive return to form the week before us by almost beating the crows.

There's a lot of similar trending there to results from last year.

So this may be one of our biggest tests this year to see if we can stop falling into the same traps we have previously. Lose this one and all hell will break lose on this forum, in the media and amongst the supporter base at large.

 

[tribey]

Win inside-50's by 20, lose by 6 goals.

 

[dinger]

Each and every game we play, we will get better at this new play style. We will make finals. We will win this game, but not by much. But it'll be a huge victory in the grand scheme of this season.

 

[bringbackbucky]

Nathan Basset can go and EAD. Hated him as a player. Hated him as Norwood coach. And I'm hating what he has done with our back 6 to this point. 248 points against in two games. Self serving, arrogant tosser.

I'm fully expecting another 10 goals over the back.

 

[Magus]

Teams are looking at us as an easy win again. Im sure the Bombers are licking their lips at the thought of two in a row.

 

[Waspy79]

We've declined a lot to be so worried about this game. A sad situation.

 

[tribey]

Nathan Basset can go and EAD. Hated him as a player. Hated him as Norwood coach. And I'm hating what he has done with our back 6 to this point. 248 points against in two games. Self serving, arrogant tosser.

I'm fully expecting another 10 goals over the back.

The creme eggs have ****ed with his head.

 

[Ant Bear]

Our team this week

FF: Wingard, Dixon, Young
HF: R. Gray, Westhoff, Neade
C: Polec, Boak, Toumpas
HB: Pittard, Broadbent, Jonas, Hombsch, Carlile, Impey
FB: We don't need no stinking full back line
Ruck: Lobbe, Wines, Hartlett
I/C: S. Gray, Trengove, Howard, Ebert

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Inside 50 stats are pretty useless are they not, I mean if you are not hitting targets and being constantly repelled from between 30 to 50 meaningless. Blind kicks just inside 50 to opposition rebound avantage would be a fun one

 

[Chrizzt]

Essendon have looked quite good moving the ball forward but have been pretty deplorable and defending. A lot of their players look like they have either no interest or no idea how to defend properly at AFL level. Crush them with defensive pressure and we should be fine.

It does seem that no matter the result Friday night, it will still pale in comparison to the shocking effort in the showdown. However it's only round 2 and team form has been erratic across nearly the entire comp.

Friday night footy, potential for a big crowd to kick off the China TV deal. Feels like this could be similar to one of my favourite recent games in the rnd 22 2014 game against Carlton. Coming off some wretched form we went ballistic against an understrength side that had recently hit some decent form. Smashed them defensively and obliterated them in attack. That game got us confidence to play a role in September, so hopefully this Friday night can do similar for our 2016 season.

 

[DPS72]

With Basset admitting that the backs are pressing too high, i can only hope that the result will be over compensation.
Everyone re-aligning further back allowing the slingshot to be used out of defense...
You know. Doing something that works instead of letting it be done to us...

 

[frenchfri12]

 

[Far Kern]

I trust that we're a lot closer to playing the way we want to than the lot of us realise. Any win's a good win, hopefully the boys put on a good performance and smash 'em.

 

[manureid]

Over/Unders for walk in goals for them this week?

 

[bringbackbucky]

With Basset admitting that the backs are pressing too high, i can only hope that the result will be over compensation.
Everyone re-aligning further back allowing the slingshot to be used out of defense...
You know. Doing something that works instead of letting it be done to us...

How are we gonna slingshot though?

Short of Pittard we don't have anyone capable of gaining serious territory. If you fill your back 6 with pure dinosaur defenders (Carlile, Trengove, Jonas and Hombsch*) as we have done, you run the risk of no run off half back. That's fine if you play one on one and kill every contest. Your mids can drop back for the stoppage and you re-load. This is assuming you have a decent ruckman and are confident your mids can win the ball. We have neither.

Now we are trying to play an offensive press as our primary form of defense. This requires super fit, fast, aggressive (and probably undersized) players to pull off. Yet we stack the backline full of poor ball using dinosaurs. Jack and Bobby are not linkmen!!!!! We are not matching our game plan with our personnel. Lunacy.

*at least Hombsch can use the ball