Preview Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn (The Burgoyne/Wingard/Lonie/Renouf/Russell Cup.

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Roughead to return for Hawks with a point to prove and boots 5.

Umps to award a new record of 10 50m penalties against us.
 

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I reckon we’ll be out for revenge after last year.

If Robbie plays I’m confident, otherwise I think its very much a 50-50 game.

Huge game for our season though, we need to win this.
 

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I still think the biggest change of personnel from Hawthorn's point of view is Andrew Russell.
I still wonder if he'll be able to turn Carlton into a premiership team one day, considering what he managed to do with Port and Hawthorn. I don't know if Bolton would be there for any of that though
 
If Lycett isn't up to it that might actually be better for Ryder, as I feel he can play very well as the sole ruckman provided his body is up to the task. Of course we would need another tall forward for that however. Marshall might have to get yet another chance, or if we don't want to use Ryder as the primary ruckman we can bring in Ladhams to help him out.
 
Sorry to intrude. Lewis (concussion) could see him out meaning Rough is a chance despite not having a great game in the VFL on Sunday. McEvoy also in doubt. Chad and Smith should be right to go. I wouldn't expect too many changes. Gray seems to kill us, how much of a chance is he? We have been moving the ball better the last few weeks but can't finish our plays off on the scoreboard. I feel your defence is good enough to hold up. If Chad comes in, he'll try and make a statement and that's how we will win. Otherwise i expect Port to win by 14
 
It's not all about the numbers, but for some context...

Good statistical matchups:
Clearance differential: Port 1st (+7.3) v Hawks 18th (-6.4)
Contested possession diff: Port 4th (+7.5) v Hawks 16th (-9.0)
Inside 50 diff: Port 1st (+12.4) v Hawks 13th (-1.4)

> Our mids shouldn't have any trouble getting their hands on the ball, and getting it out to the runners.

Stats to watch out for:
Tackles inside 50 diff: Hawks 1st (+4.7) v Port 5th (+2.3)
Intercept differential: Hawks 1st (+5.9) v Port 8th (+0.3)

> However, if we bomb it in long Hawks will kill us with intercept marking.

Hawks tackle pressure inside 50 is a bit of a worry, but given their low inside 50 differential they don't have the same ability as us to lock the ball inside their 50 with that tackle pressure.
 
It's not all about the numbers, but for some context...

Good statistical matchups:
Clearance differential: Port 1st (+7.3) v Hawks 18th (-6.4)
Contested possession diff: Port 4th (+7.5) v Hawks 16th (-9.0)
Inside 50 diff: Port 1st (+12.4) v Hawks 13th (-1.4)

> Our mids shouldn't have any trouble getting their hands on the ball, and getting it out to the runners.

Stats to watch out for:
Tackles inside 50 diff: Hawks 1st (+4.7) v Port 5th (+2.3)
Intercept differential: Hawks 1st (+5.9) v Port 8th (+0.3)

> However, if we bomb it in long Hawks will kill us with intercept marking.

Hawks tackle pressure inside 50 is a bit of a worry, but given their low inside 50 differential they don't have the same ability as us to lock the ball inside their 50 with that tackle pressure.

Inside 50s
Port 552
Hawthorn 464

Goals
Port 109
Hawthorn 103

Hinkley: Get it inside 50
Players: Now what?
 
Inside 50s
Port 552
Hawthorn 464

Goals
Port 109
Hawthorn 103

Hinkley: Get it inside 50
Players: Now what?

Goals per inside 50%: Port 19.7 v Hawks 22.2 - not a huge difference, particularly when you take into account that the Hawks are more accurate so scoring shots per inside 50 are closer again.
 

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