Opinion Port, Essendon, Carlton - Who is the first to contend again

[kid_a]

Given that all signs say Carlton and Essendon will never contend again has to be Port

Relegate them to the VFL?

Then they can maybe add to their big collection of state league flags

 

[Makeshift Park]

Great thread idea Snuffaluphagus

There’s clearly a big enough sample size to show that Voss and B Scott just aren’t up to it. So the starting point is that Carlton and Essendon have more to benefit from simply getting better coaches. While there are some early warning signs there for Carr, I’m prepared to give him a full season before arriving at any conclusions. So in terms of attributing their current quagmires to the three teams’ incumbent coaches, I’m giving Port the benefit of the doubt.

Then there’s the playing lists. If we have to predict which team will have the best three players over the next five years, I’m inclined to go Carlton. (Thats assuming Butters is gone)
Walsh + Weitering + Jagga: If you’re going full rebuild, those three are better than any three that North, WC or Richmond started their own rebuilds with. Merrett, if he stays, just doesn’t have the support, despite being the 2nd best player on all three lists.

The question for me then becomes how much of Carlton’s current imbroglio goes beyond coaching and the playing list. In other words, how much is institutional rot? And how much healthier is the PAFC as a club culture? Particularly in terms of stability, as well as the alignment between executives, list management, coaching staff and high performance areas?

The most obvious point here is that the Hinkley-Carr handover was managed with a maturity that is hard to imagine Carlton or Essendon doing. It allows for renewal, while giving the club structural continuity. I’m not a massive Kochie fan, but at least Port had the wherewithal to appoint someone who probably won’t get sprung sharing dickpix or dedicating himself to homophobic causes.

So tl;dr - the bare bones of a list that could play finals in 2030 is there for Carlton above the other two, while every other indicator points in Port’s favour.

 

[joe444]

Not the same question as "who has the better list?" Plenty of teams have been mired in irrelevance with decent core players. And Carlton could theoretically "contend" reasonably quickly because I suspect they're coached rather poorly.

Carlton have a reasonable spine (except for the metaphorical one). Essendon are generally in slash-and-burn territory, so they may eventually be the first to win a premiership, but not contend. Port have a very mediocre list, which could be the hardest to turn around. Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

25

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

is on the way out I'd think, too.

So the first to genuinely contend is Carlton. Heck, they may appoint James Kelly or John Longmire

Player not found

this week and contend this year.

 

[Golumless]

Seeing the competition, Port should win this by, oh, a couple of decades at least.

 

[jakson68]

Not sure who of these three will contend again but seeing as at best I would only have 20 years left in me, fortunately, I wont be around to see it.

 

[Wraptor]

Given that all signs say Carlton and Essendon will never contend again has to be Port

Graham Wright is going to fix Carlton he just needs time.
I do agree that Port will contend before either Carlton or Essendon do, as Port have shown they can build and maintain a competitive playing list in the modern era.
I mean, Port were top 4 only a couple of years ago, people have short memories.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Graham Wright is going to fix Carlton he just needs time.
I do agree that Port will contend before either Carlton or Essendon do, as Port have shown they can build and maintain a competitive playing list in the modern era.
I mean, Port were top 4 only a couple of years ago, people have short memories.

Take away where Port were at a few years ago and actually look at the names running around outside the top 5 players. They competed around finals for a long time and there are basically only two clubs in the AFL who can avoid total rebuilds, and they arent based outisde of Melbourne...

Port are going to need a rebuild but they do have the edge on the other two in that they've shown they can actually build a list in the AFL post 2000

 

[JayJ20]

Contend lol. Let's start with winning a final first. This is my order:

Port
Carlton
Essendon

Why? If you look back to the bottom 4 in 2020, the success of each side since correlates with modern success.

Bottom 4 were:

15. Hawthorn
16. Sydney
17. North
18. Adelaide

Sydney have since made two grand finals and are contending this year.
Hawthorn have completed a rebuild, made a prelim and are contending again.
Adelaide finished first last year but hasn't won a final yet.
North have since won like 17 or so games in over 100 games.

Each club is exactly how they were before they entered the rebuild. Culture is the biggest driving factor.

Port will be fine. Essendon and Carlton need a serious overhaul in culture.

 

[SC_Power]

I mean, all three clubs are has beens that still look lovingly at past glories. In the case of one of the clubs, glories in a completely different and irrelevant league.

So, whoever stops doing that first I guess.

What an odd post.