Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 12

RussellEbertHandball

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Nov 16, 2004
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Predicted Week 1 of finals:

QF1 Geelong vs Richmond
QF2 Brisbane vs West Coast
Richmond straight thru to the PF under the QF1 scenario played at their home the MCG.

I think it will be WCE who finish 2nd instead of Brisbane. That is a massive difference who gets the home QF.

WCE home QF in front of about 59,200 rapid Eagles fans vs 800 Lions fans will be near impossible for the young Lions to win. A home QF and win, followed by a home PF win, makes a premiership defence a s**t load easier.

Brisbane finish 2nd, then WCE have to travel back an forth for 5 hours. Brisbane have played 12 home finals and have won them all. They have only played sides from Victoria and SA and have had a big weather advantage (heat and humidity) over teams from those states and that has helped them have a 100% finals win record at the Gabba. They wont have big a weather advantage against the WCE. It was 23 yesterday in Perth.

So if Brisbane continue their 100% home finals win record, WCE then play a semi final in Perth and then fly to the MCG to play Richmond under my scenario above. That is a lot tougher premiership defence route than hosting Brisbane in Perth.

Its why I keep saying Top 4 isn't that big a deal. 4th spot is bloody tough to win a flag from. Its top 2 that is what is important to give you the best chance to win a flag.

We have a side good enough to finish 4th, even with that stretch of 5 to 8 of our best 22 out with injuries and we went 2W - 4L between Rd 7 to 13. We stuffed up games outside that stretch, where we lost because a combo of dumb forward player selections and dumb players just bombing the ball inside 50 when we had short or no forwards. But finishing 4th doesn't achieve much.

I reckon the top 4 will end up being
1. Geelong 15 wins + beat Brisbane (Gab) beat Carl (KP) = 17 wins
2. WCE 15 + lose to Richmond (MCG) beat Haw (PS) = 16 wins
3. Rich 14 + beat WCE (MCG) + beat Brisbane (MCG) = 16 wins
4. Bris 15 + lose to Geelong (Gab) + loose to Richmond (MCG) = 15 wins

I can't see Richmond making up 9% gap on WCE, they are behind at the moment.

So Geelong beat Brisbane and WCE beat Richmond in QF's and then in PF's Richmond beat Geelong and WCE beat Brisbane and 2019 GF is between two teams that should have played in 2018 GF.
 

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philreich

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Mar 2, 2014
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If we win this week, and results fall our way there could be a scenario going into the last game where winning will give us 7th and losing will give us 8th. If we perhaps really wanna play 5th we could strategically lose this game. Very dangerous though as you don’t want losing form going into finals.
Flirting with form is bloody dangerous - especially when you're on the edge of the cliff. Adelaide and the Bulldogs are breathing down our necks, so I hope it's full steam ahead to knock off the Roos this week.
 

EskimoPAFC

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Dec 17, 2017
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Just thinking, if we make it would we rather play Collingwood or GWS? (This is assuming Richmond keeps winning and secures Top 4)
Not that different, both beatable, both we would be underdogs >40%

I'd prefer magpies at the G personally. Everyone in the bottom half of the 8 should be hoping they can get Geelong in the second week of finals if they can make it there. I think that's the bigger one.
 

Steve Dore

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Aug 30, 2004
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Especially with Betts, no disrespect to the man but he is at a stage where he needs a zimmer frame. The only way forward realistically is for a coaching role but if i were a team eyeing him off i would wait for retirement.
More like ski poles than a zimmer frame. Downhill skiiing is now his thing.

Has certainly lost his zip and while he still has great goal sense he is not as damaging as he was. In 19 games this season he has kicked 36 goals (1.9 ave) but 12 of those were in smashings of Gold Coast. Other than that he's kicked 3 goals in a game on three occasions. Didn't kick a goal in either Showdown this year.

I don't know what other club would want to take a punt on him as he'd probably want at least a two year contract to relocate.
 

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EskimoPAFC

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More like ski poles than a zimmer frame. Downhill skiiing is now his thing.

Has certainly lost his zip and while he still has great goal sense he is not as damaging as he was. In 19 games this season he has kicked 36 goals (1.9 ave) but 12 of those were in smashings of Gold Coast. Other than that he's kicked 3 goals in a game on three occasions. Didn't kick a goal in either Showdown this year.

I don't know what other club would want to take a punt on him as he'd probably want at least a two year contract to relocate.
For a team like gold coast, it wouldn't just be about what he contributes on field, it would be the opportunity for their forwards to learn their craft from one of the greatest small forwards of all time.

Same reason it's awesome for Zak Butters to be able to have Robbie on the list, or for Todd to have Paddy
 

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
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Predicted Week 1 of finals:

QF1 Geelong vs Richmond
QF2 Brisbane vs West Coast
EF1 Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
EF2 GWS vs Port Adelaide
Would be nice to see us and the Dogs get in over cooked Essendon and past it Adelaide. You'd lock in the Bombers and Crows for an EF loss if they snuck in but we and the Dogs are good enough on our day to at least make it interesting.
 

Marmozet

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Apr 10, 2014
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two teams that should have played in 2018 GF.
I too thought that a Richmond vs West Coast GF was a mere formality last year, but I don't necessarily buy into that. The fact is that Richmond didn't turn up in the Preliminary Final last year and Collingwood did.

But then again, Collingwood did make it all that way despite beating only one Top 8 side for the year.
 

Cheesey Mac

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Not that different, both beatable, both we would be underdogs >40%

I'd prefer magpies at the G personally. Everyone in the bottom half of the 8 should be hoping they can get Geelong in the second week of finals if they can make it there. I think that's the bigger one.
I'm not really worried about if we got Collingwood or GWS in the Elimination Final, but we'd get a helluva lot more supporters get to Melbourne than we would to Sydney to support the team, much cheaper to get to Melbourne than Sydney. But yeah, agree with you, landing on the Geelong semi-final side of the draw would be the better scenario I reckon.

Of course, need to get there before any of these conundrums are an issue. Stringing wins together hasn't exactly been our strong suit in recent times
 

JUSTWORK

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Aug 25, 2013
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Why the Frakk are they interviewing Chamberlain about Roughead??? The AFL is s**t when they think the umpires need a voice.
If they do have to give the umps a voice, how about someone humble who thinks “I’m out there do a job and nothing more if your not talking about me I’ve probably done a good job” not Mr “I love to influence games” and “people come to watch me umpire”
 

DaTBird187

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Would be nice to see us and the Dogs get in over cooked Essendon and past it Adelaide. You'd lock in the Bombers and Crows for an EF loss if they snuck in but we and the Dogs are good enough on our day to at least make it interesting.
If us and the Bulldogs get through, we'd both be on pretty impressive winning streaks and play teams with very long injury lists.

We'd both be favourites.
 

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