Analysis Positives and Negatives for Season 2019

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Eagleboy68

Cancelled
Jun 11, 2015
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I know stats don’t always say everything..... but while it was well publicised that our post clearance numbers were ranked 18th in the comp, I did not realise just how far back we were.

Gold Coast (understandably) were ranked 17th in Post-Clearance Ground Ball wins with a -128 differential across the season.

We were ranked 18th, with a whopping -259 differential. Twice as poor as the next worst side. I doubt there’d be many other stats so lopsided against one team

The ground ball win deficiency is only going to get worse without Rioli in the side too.

I'm more interested in our post-post clearance stat.

I mean they make up stats for everything now days lol
 

FKASC

Reid’s Like Copium
May 28, 2017
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I'm more interested in our post-post clearance stat.

I mean they make up stats for everything now days lol
It is meaningful because raw clearance and CP numbers can be inflated by rushed hacked kicks out of stoppages that then result in the opposition mopping up and winning the ball back
 

shooshka

Premiership Player
Oct 7, 2011
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I know stats don’t always say everything..... but while it was well publicised that our post clearance numbers were ranked 18th in the comp, I did not realise just how far back we were.

Gold Coast (understandably) were ranked 17th in Post-Clearance Ground Ball wins with a -128 differential across the season.

We were ranked 18th, with a whopping -259 differential. Twice as poor as the next worst side. I doubt there’d be many other stats so lopsided against one team

The ground ball win deficiency is only going to get worse without Rioli in the side too.

So I'm of the opinion this is a little bit personnel and application, and a little bit (or a lot) around coaching (structure and gameplan).

For a team that is elite and intercepting and turnovers, and quite good around stoppages - we seem to try to keep the ball alive as much as possible (this is especially true when momentum is against us and in periods of the game when we are losing ground position/time in fwd half). The reliance on contested marks down the line is fraught with danger. I'd guess a great contested marking game by a team would be around 20 (i.e. an elite game) - if you have 5-6 in the back half, and 4-5 in the forward line - it leaves only 10 at a maximum you can take in between the arcs. Using it as the go-to for rebounding out of D50 for lets say 25-30 entries is almost impossible - and when we are so,so,so bad at winning the ground ball off the contest we basically gift 15-20 inside 50's to a team through this strategy (maybe more).

I'm often flabbergasted at the objection to creating a boundary throw in (statistically we'd be 50/50 or thereabouts for a throw in clearance, and somewhere closer to 30% for a pack mark or winning the eventuating ground ball). Add in the ability to set up around stoppages moreso than a pack in general play (i.e. can't stop a crumber handballing to a runner with no front-on pressure, but you can structurally impact the ability of opposition players getting out of a stoppage - i.e. mostly dictate how they can and can't break from a stoppage) - and it seems fairly obvious.

I know this is a very, very basic analysis - but surely we have to look at playing to our strengths better.
 

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FKASC

Reid’s Like Copium
May 28, 2017
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So I'm of the opinion this is a little bit personnel and application, and a little bit (or a lot) around coaching (structure and gameplan).

For a team that is elite and intercepting and turnovers, and quite good around stoppages - we seem to try to keep the ball alive as much as possible (this is especially true when momentum is against us and in periods of the game when we are losing ground position/time in fwd half). The reliance on contested marks down the line is fraught with danger. I'd guess a great contested marking game by a team would be around 20 (i.e. an elite game) - if you have 5-6 in the back half, and 4-5 in the forward line - it leaves only 10 at a maximum you can take in between the arcs. Using it as the go-to for rebounding out of D50 for lets say 25-30 entries is almost impossible - and when we are so,so,so bad at winning the ground ball off the contest we basically gift 15-20 inside 50's to a team through this strategy (maybe more).

I'm often flabbergasted at the objection to creating a boundary throw in (statistically we'd be 50/50 or thereabouts for a throw in clearance, and somewhere closer to 30% for a pack mark or winning the eventuating ground ball). Add in the ability to set up around stoppages moreso than a pack in general play (i.e. can't stop a crumber handballing to a runner with no front-on pressure, but you can structurally impact the ability of opposition players getting out of a stoppage - i.e. mostly dictate how they can and can't break from a stoppage) - and it seems fairly obvious.

I know this is a very, very basic analysis - but surely we have to look at playing to our strengths better.
Yeah, people will point to 2018 and say we ranked 16th in the same stat yet won the flag. But you suspect multiple seasons of the same heavy reliance on intercept marking will make us vulnerable to be exploited by opposition strategists.
 
Oct 29, 2007
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Yeah, people will point to 2018 and say we ranked 16th in the same stat yet won the flag. But you suspect multiple seasons of the same heavy reliance on intercept marking will make us vulnerable to be exploited by opposition strategists.

We flicked a switch during the finals and i thought we were going to do the same this year.

Simmo did well with the web but didn't work on wider grounds so he tinkered it. This year Contested possession has been a massive problem so wouldn't surprise me if he tweaked it yet again.
 

FKASC

Reid’s Like Copium
May 28, 2017
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We flicked a switch during the finals and i thought we were going to do the same this year.

Simmo did well with the web but didn't work on wider grounds so he tinkered it. This year Contested possession has been a massive problem so wouldn't surprise me if he tweaked it yet again.
2018 Finals weren’t the best sample size to base that switch-flick concept on, though.

Melbourne didn’t show up at all, and our gameplan seems to match up well against Collingwood. We didn’t play anyone else.
 
Finish top 2 and we are in the Grandfinal on Saturday.

Finish Top 4 and we were making a prelim minimum.

Finish 5-8 and what we saw happen is the most likely outcome, bundled out in a semi. It's extremely difficult to win an away final, let alone 3 on the trot.

Still...I did feel like we were a hot chance to make the prelim 3 days out from the semi :(
 
Dec 19, 2007
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-Thought id throw in a few thoughts..
- We didnt throw enough people into the middle during the year.New blood was the lifeline of the '18 premiership
- Yo was our No1 tough mid.Last year he was No3 behind Lycett and Vardy.
- I would have thought WC would have played Vardy against Geelong; a side that physically troubles us.His WAFL form was good and players lift against their old club.
- Ive defended Hickey all year and hes a workhorse but not physical enough.
- Petrol will develop into a goodun if he can add Camerons workrate.
- Cameron should probably have played in front of Petrol.He goes harder for longer.
- If we had known Rioli was out i would have played OAllen in front of Waterman.Rioli has the magic but so does Allen;and hes brave , has great hands and is a super decision maker.
- Is Waterman slated to go to Mastens wing? Good tank,poor tackler and average decision maker.Like for like.
- With our setup the way it is we cant have Reddan and Sheed in the guts.Sheed is an extractor but cant tackle and couldnt run out of sight on a dark night.
- I hope we keep Brander.I think he could be the lynchpin of our defence for years to come.Good mark good kick.
- If teams bring tactics to bypass Mcgovern then why dont we develop new tactics to use him? He is a brilliant football tactician and would kill it if let run free through the midfield,plus hes tough!!!
- The Essendon final flattered us.Our possession rate through the year and some really poor crucial losses tells us this side wasnt good/hungry enough.
We need changes.Lets not sit back rubbing our bellies saying "when we get Kelly look out". We did that this year waiting for NN.
- Im a firm believer in being tough at the top.Vardy,NN etc.Baily Williams looks a gem and i hope he gets an early run preferably at FF.If JK plays then we need to manage him and give him the odd holiday.
- Venables is the forgotten man.Hes a very good player.Would suck to lose him and Willie.
- It was a bit depressing to hear Barass early in the season saying he was finding it hard to get motivated.Maybe we need to get tougher and give players a WAFL holiday if they go off the boil.
- 2018 is way in the rearview mirror. Play people on form not reputations.Play the kids as much as possible.
- Carn Gw....Sob sob!!
 

The wily weagle

Premiership Player
Oct 16, 2014
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Carlton game :crossmark: up by 7 goals and they kicked 3 in the final 2.5 mins to make it a 4 goal game.
Essendon game :crossmark: absolutely dominated them and couldn't kick straight for a 10 goal win to be a 5 goal win.

Both those games gave me the s**ts.

Agreed. And half the board after the game was like "got the 4 points, relax, % won't matter......." 🙄🙄
 
Sep 21, 2004
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Going through the season in my head and other than the fact we won more than we lost there wasnt a lot to get excited about our 2019 year.

Guess Im 4 from 4 at Adelaide Oval seeing us play so that was good.

Heres hoping for a huge 2020

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Coasters7

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 27, 2014
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Going through the season in my head and other than the fact we won more than we lost there wasnt a lot to get excited about our 2019 year.

Guess Im 4 from 4 at Adelaide Oval seeing us play so that was good.

Heres hoping for a huge 2020

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Yeah this is one thing that has crossed my mind. In 2018 I would have watched the full replay of every win. 2019 I found it hard to go back and watch the majority of them as there were a lot of “take the 4 points and never speak of this game again”. Just didn’t have the same vibe all year and was probably a fitting end. A dominant win followed up by a loss where we arguably should’ve won had we turned up for the whole game. Think we were missing someone like SMitch, he wasn’t necessarily the entire difference but he’s been there before and knows what it takes to go again.
 

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Sep 21, 2004
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Yeah this is one thing that has crossed my mind. In 2018 I would have watched the full replay of every win. 2019 I found it hard to go back and watch the majority of them as there were a lot of “take the 4 points and never speak of this game again”. Just didn’t have the same vibe all year

This!

Other than the games I couldn't watch at the time and the Adelaide game I didnt watch a replay because of the "that was tough to watch but move on to next week" feeling.

Seriously feel like a coach sometimes...

Win: good win, take the 4 points move on.
Lose: learn from mistakes, what needs to be done about next week.





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Aug 12, 2014
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Hopefully in 2020 we get Geelong and Richmond back at home as we did last year. There wasn't really too huge a difference between going 15-7 and finishing 5th and 16-6 or 17-5 and finishing top 2. Fine margins this year and we were on the wrong side of too many. Fingers crossed for a fit Nic, Tim Kelly to bolster the midfield and a fixture where we play the top teams more often at home than away.
 
May 8, 2012
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Have you noticed that all the top teams this year have pretty much all midfielders that just rotate off the wing, flanks and forward line with a couple of key bookends. We severely lack players that can hit a contested ball with brute strength and force an advantage. The possession game works up to a point but when the other team puts the pressure on and gets field position then its hard to get back the momentum without players forcing their will on the game.
 
Have you noticed that all the top teams this year have pretty much all midfielders that just rotate off the wing, flanks and forward line with a couple of key bookends. We severely lack players that can hit a contested ball with brute strength and force an advantage. The possession game works up to a point but when the other team puts the pressure on and gets field position then its hard to get back the momentum without players forcing their will on the game.
Venables was a bigger loss than first thought, as he fits this bill.
 
Sep 21, 2004
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Positive: played some of the most amazing football ever seen in the AFL and hammered the opposition.

Negative: only did it for one or two quarters and then just didn’t seem to care.
The rd23 game v Hawks summed it up.

Literally played 5 mins of unbelievable footy, kicked 4 goals and then totally stopped.

Nearly every game we won we were 2-3 goals up and let teams come back. You turn 18 point wins into 60+ point wins then thats difference between 5th and 2nd/3rd.

We did the exact same in 2016/2017/2018 as well.

2018 we just did it that little bit better.



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Mick63

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Hopefully in 2020 we get Geelong and Richmond back at home as we did last year. There wasn't really too huge a difference between going 15-7 and finishing 5th and 16-6 or 17-5 and finishing top 2. Fine margins this year and we were on the wrong side of too many. Fingers crossed for a fit Nic, Tim Kelly to bolster the midfield and a fixture where we play the top teams more often at home than away.
A bit in this.

When the fixture was released last year I thought immediately that our away games of Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne (lol) in Alice and Richmond would cause us some strife and in the end we went 2 and 3.

We will most likely double up with Collingwood again, however we are due to get Geelong, Sydney and Richmond all at home. We are also due to play Gold Coast away (hopefully toward the back half of the season for a % booster) and hopefully get the Lions at home too. Straight away that fixture is looking heaps better.
 

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