Autopsy Positives and Negatives vs Richmond

[Coasters7]

Do we dare to dream that the purples can do us a solid next Wednesday night?

Imagine how torn their fans would be if they beat a genuine contender but it was massively to the benefit of “the slime”.

Where they came up with that pejorative for us still mystifies me. Goes to the intellect of your typical Freo fan I suppose.

I can imagine the absolute conflict they’d feel between gloating that they beat Richmond only a few days after we lost to them.. and “hang on, we’ve just locked away a top 4 berth for them”

 

[dkalphy]

Problem with this idea that we just need to withstand the pressure and stick to our kick-mark game is that Richmond’s defenders are all very good overhead as well.

So if we can’t run and handball (because that feeds into Richmond’s plan) we also can’t kick it to contests because Darling will get beaten every time. Kennedy being out exacerbated it, but Balta absolutely destroyed Darling one on one.

If our supposed aerial advantage in the forwardline is nullified - and Richmond seem to have worked out how to nullify McGovern and Barrass in the backline - then we are kinda screwed.

We need to win or halve the aerial contests up forward, and crumb/pressure better if it is halved. Unfortunately all of our key forwards are more leading types. It would be great to have one gun pack marker to make Balta more accountable.

Darling isnt a KP thats why, hes undersized

 

[woosha24]

I can imagine the absolute conflict they’d feel between gloating that they beat Richmond only a few days after we lost to them.. and “hang on, we’ve just locked away a top 4 berth for them”

They couldnt put Carlton away and only kicked 5 goals. The purps wont get within 30 of Richmond.

 

[DanWCE]

Problem with this idea that we just need to withstand the pressure and stick to our kick-mark game is that Richmond’s defenders are all very good overhead as well.

So if we can’t run and handball (because that feeds into Richmond’s plan) we also can’t kick it to contests because Darling will get beaten every time. Kennedy being out exacerbated it, but Balta absolutely destroyed Darling one on one.

If our supposed aerial advantage in the forwardline is nullified - and Richmond seem to have worked out how to nullify McGovern and Barrass in the backline - then we are kinda screwed.

We need to win or halve the aerial contests up forward, and crumb/pressure better if it is halved. Unfortunately all of our key forwards are more leading types. It would be great to have one gun pack marker to make Balta more accountable.

Finding that little 15-20m chip kick to mark in our defensive 50 is so critical. Jetta is usually one of the more creative ones at pulling it off but none of our backs are particularly bad at it. We didn't or couldn't do that in this game. So instead we handballed and paid dearly with the eventual turnover.

When we did hit the little kicks, the umps called it play on not 15 and we were forced to rush the next kick which was intercepted. They were very hot on the not 15.

 

[Doashuey]

So serious question. I havent watched the game. Do I bother?

Yes. It was a high quality game although we were not at our best for long enough.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I think it was after the 500th dropped mark where no one stayed down and a Richmond small snapped the easiest of goals when I yelled "punch it to the boundary like this you brain dead muppets", and punched the ground and hurt my hand.

Worth it.

If they haven't learned how to play in QLD conditions by now, they never will. Convinced they don't actually want to learn.

 

[Feeling Groovy]

Some positives first:

XON - really showing a bit for a second gamer and, if possible, would be good for him to remain in the side for the rest of the year. He looks the goods.

Cole and Duggan - Excellent. Ryan pretty good too.

Bailey - wasn't that good to be honest but great to get a game into him and he will be good for us going forward. It takes time to adjust to the pace.

Negatives:

We are really soft. Richmond (and other teams) attack the contest/ball/man and we hold off (even senior players) waiting for them to do so and then put in a half arsed attempt at a one armed tackle and because the other team has attacked the contest, they just waltz through the "tackle". It has been that way for far longer than I care to remember. We need some aggression and with angry Yeo out, we really don't have much around other than NN.

We look so slow at times. Hurn is looking like he is running on pudding. I don't want to call time on a champion but we certainly should not be signing a contract extension with him until we get to the end of the year and assess.

After defending Reid last week and saying he should stay in the team, he was bloody ordinary last night and offered nothing. I am not sure who comes in though as Cameron was offering the same or less earlier in the year (even if he has far more talent).

Brander took a step backwards after a couple of really good games. He also suffers from the not attacking the contest issue at times. I hope that is just inexperience as he has talent (as we saw the last two weeks) but he needs more aggression.

I thought their rucks neutralized NN (apart from a great spell by him in the second (?)). Some of it should have been penalised as I felt they manhandled him at times but, good luck to them if they get away with it.

What were those in the back decisions? Ridiculous.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

We also had 3 very inexperienced players playing:
Reid 3rd game
Xon 2nd game
William's 1st game

Add Brander and Rotham who have played 10 games each. That's 5 players with about 23 games experience between them playing against reigning premiers.

 

[Chris_6678]

With the way Duggan has stepped up i wonder if he in line to be Captain after Shuey?

He has seriously gone up a notch this year.

 

[Agent93]

I found McGovern far more disappointing than Barrass, at least Barrass tries to pick up his man. If Gov can’t stand on his own all night and get things his way he pretty much gives up and spits the dummy as if it’s all to hard. Barrass was competing at least, Gov may as well stayed in his hotel room.

I had a quick look through the AFL's 6 min highlight package of the match and to me there were three goals that could have been averted by Gov doing simple things correctly. First was the Rioli goal in the third where he dropped a fairly simple mark by his standards, second the Castagna snap where he failed to follow Riewoldt from a stoppage then he and Rotham spoiled each other, and lastly (but game was somewhat over here) on the last goal he comes out to challenge Rioli, late tackle, but doesn't stop the run on.

Those first two were somewhat important - stop those and the Brander clanger and it's still a 1 goal game.

 

[DanWCE]

I know I keep bashing my gums together about this handballing thing, but let's take a quick look at Gaff's numbers. He's the hardest runner we employ and bails us out in defense by creating an out number and giving us an outlet to move the ball from one end to the other.

This season he averages 14.5 kicks and 9.1 handballs from the 12 games prior to the Tigers. That's a split of 61% kicking to 39% handballing.

Against the Tigers these numbers were basically reversed. 12 kicks (37.5%) and 20 handballs (62.5%). He might have played a little more inside with the loss of Yeo and Redden, but for me those numbers are all wrong for Gaffy. I can't say I noticed him a great deal for good or bad but I suspect he was involved in a lot of those handball chains exiting defense where we eventually succumbed to the Tigers pressure and turned it over.

This is just one example of one player whose stats look completely out of whack with what we've come to expect, but it correlates with the team wide stats which suggest we went away from what we do best, or weren't allowed to.

 

[Lynch takes a mark]

I said in the game day thread that the forward line pressure that Richmond put on turned our backline into shambles.

Really well done, rattled to the point of not communicating with each other in who will cover, who goes up, who stays down, where are the exits, who is in the goal square and how do we establish our frame up the ground.

Outstanding work by Richmond, we rarely get a look at them in the last few years and it was cool to see them put on their style of football across the ground, would have been awesome to get the behind the goals view.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

So serious question. I havent watched the game. Do I bother?

First half, yes.
Second half you'll be raging.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

One positive I'll take out of this game is that the club will have learned more from the loss than from a win.

When we face them next, I fully expect the club to make a raft of changes to how they take on Richmond. Richmond having won will try to do the exact same thing next time round, so hopefully that predictability plays to our advantage.

 

[Obeanie1]

Me three. I mean, this is seriously U/11’s stuff.

One, or at most two, up in a marking contest is what you’re taught on Tuesday and Thursday nights as a young pup.

Instead we have Gov, Barrass, Shepp and Duggan all flying for the spoil or sometimes even the mark. All while they have Castagna, Rioli, Aarts and Bolton waiting for the ball to come to ground right in the hot spot 30m from goal for a quick snap.

I reckon their accuracy from those snaps is because it would be like a training ground set piece for them.

Their manic, pressure game built on bringing the ball to ground and fast, small forwards that know where the goals are would require that exact quick snap from a ground ball scenario as a goal kicking exercise at every training session of theirs I’d imagine.

Why the hell would we panick under the long high ball is the question? Its not like we have crap tall defenders.

Yes, I is annouying watchind supposidly the best footballers in the land making u 12s mistakes.

 

[Obeanie1]

They couldnt put Carlton away and only kicked 5 goals. The purps wont get within 30 of Richmond.

Stranger things happen.

Richmond would have built themselves up for our game. Two tough games in a row off short breaks. Go out a bit tired and sore and play 5% under the standard and you lose to teams you shouldnt.

 

[woosha24]

Why the hell would we panick under the long high ball is the question? Its not like we have crap tall defenders.

Yes, I is annouying watchind supposidly the best footballers in the land making u 12s mistakes.

Dunno. Weirdest thing was watching Barrass absolutely crap himself anytime the ball came in high to Lynch. Gave away a bunch of frees.

I was like.....why? You know how to do this? Why are you wrestling with this dude and giving away frees? You're better than this!

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

One positive I'll take out of this game is that the club will have learned more from the loss than from a win.

When we face them next, I fully expect the club to make a raft of changes to how they take on Richmond. Richmond having won will try to do the exact same thing next time round, so hopefully that predictability plays to our advantage.

I like your optimism but a lot of people were saying this last year as well. Lose to Collingwood at home? We'll learn from that. Turn to crap when the rain starts against Richmond? Oh we'll definitely learn from that. Get smashed all over the place by Hawthorn? Hmm maybe we're not learning anything.

We've now lost to the top three teams this year. All three matches in Queensland where finals are most likely to be played. Will we magically learn what to do before we face them again, when we have shown no inclination to do so for two seasons now?

1-3 record against the top 4, and we're fifth. Is this 2019 or 2020?

 

[THE A5]

View attachment 946994

You've completely f’ed my algorithm.

* this mines worse. I hate this place

 

[Rowan18]

Problem with this idea that we just need to withstand the pressure and stick to our kick-mark game is that Richmond’s defenders are all very good overhead as well.

So if we can’t run and handball (because that feeds into Richmond’s plan) we also can’t kick it to contests because Darling will get beaten every time. Kennedy being out exacerbated it, but Balta absolutely destroyed Darling one on one.

If our supposed aerial advantage in the forwardline is nullified - and Richmond seem to have worked out how to nullify McGovern and Barrass in the backline - then we are kinda screwed.

We need to win or halve the aerial contests up forward, and crumb/pressure better if it is halved. Unfortunately all of our key forwards are more leading types. It would be great to have one gun pack marker to make Balta more accountable.

I don't think I saw Darling have many 1v1s, was usually him vs 2-4. He did incredibly well considering.

The reason our game broke down is we had no talls to take the contested marks. JK, Allen and Waterman were out, so Darling or Ryan were the only targets. Williams was overawed, Nic Nat doesn't mark and Brander is also inexperienced. That was the game right there.

 

[Rowan18]

I like your optimism but a lot of people were saying this last year as well. Lose to Collingwood at home? We'll learn from that. Turn to crap when the rain starts against Richmond? Oh we'll definitely learn from that. Get smashed all over the place by Hawthorn? Hmm maybe we're not learning anything.

We've now lost to the top three teams this year. All three matches in Queensland where finals are most likely to be played. Will we magically learn what to do before we face them again, when we have shown no inclination to do so for two seasons now?

1-3 record against the top 4, and we're fifth. Is this 2019 or 2020?

That may be right, but us optimistic ones are assuming thay the games against Port and Brisbane were anomalies as we were thrown off by the hub. Last night we were missing too many key players and the dam wall broke.

We won't know either way unless we get another crack at any of them in finals, with a fit 22.

 

[Sw3Et]

Positives:

+ Ryan was our best forward in the hub last time and played a ripper.
+ Naitanui is still unreal
+ Duggan's best game for the club, Cole rose to the occasion too
+ Cripps' best game for me, certainly stood up when it counted
+ O'Neill went when it was his turn. Great to see
+ We're not five goals off the pace here. Tigers kicked 14.1 with three rushed behinds. Few frustrating frees thrown in directly in front of goal, or not paid in our goalsquare, though the Darling hold off the ball was very soft it must be said. Fired him up a bit. I'm worried about the fixture crunch, but I'm not worried with how we stack up against Richmond. One of this bounce of the ball goes the other way games.
+ We responded time and time again. Let ourselves get too far off the pace, but yet again it was Naitanui firing us forward and getting us going when we needed it. A few must respond moments and we did. In the end the margin was too great and that final defensive breakdown to Dusty killed it.

- Happened in the Carlton game and happened badly tonight - dropped intercept marks. Kill the contest to the third tier if you're uneasy. Too many times we drop marks and see it snapped directly over our head for a goal. A real flaw in the game is if you go for them and they don't stick.
- Kennedy's injury
- Reid has a ceiling. It's a nice story but he just isn't up to AFL speed yet. Finds himself out of position even though he chases hard, he's just not quite at the level. Maybe Cameron again? Lack of options is telling.
- Fixture crunch coming up. Conditions weren't dreadful tonight but did creep in for both sides. Cole/Ryan/Duggan super clean, most others battled throughout the night.
- Some goal kicking let offs, no real howlers but we definitely left some goals out there.
- Only seven points scored off our halfback line, which is our bread and butter scoring avenue. Troubling.

We weren't all the way on, they kicked 14.1. They deserved to win, they denied us our game style nicely, hats off to a good side. It wasn't a four goal game, and if you played it again on another day it could well have been us with the kicking boots and them scoring a frustrating scoreline. We're in a fine position against Richmond. Time to navigate a tough hub stretch, and get into home finals.

Win all four and we're top four. Richmond or Geelong or Brisbane or Port drop a game somewhere, it opens the door right up. Season's on folks, season is well and truly on. Fire up campaigners.

Honestly one of the biggest positives of the game was your call, mate. I'd happily contribute to some kind of patreon or something too keep these coming.

 

[EagleMutt]

They couldnt put Carlton away and only kicked 5 goals. The purps wont get within 30 of Richmond.

Dockers only have a 4 day break and travel as well

 

[Rowan18]

Stranger things happen.

Richmond would have built themselves up for our game. Two tough games in a row off short breaks. Go out a bit tired and sore and play 5% under the standard and you lose to teams you shouldnt.

True - there are always upsets at the end of the season.

Bombers worry me, as what you've said about Richmond could also apply to us.

 

[FKASC]

I like your optimism but a lot of people were saying this last year as well. Lose to Collingwood at home? We'll learn from that. Turn to crap when the rain starts against Richmond? Oh we'll definitely learn from that. Get smashed all over the place by Hawthorn? Hmm maybe we're not learning anything.

We've now lost to the top three teams this year. All three matches in Queensland where finals are most likely to be played. Will we magically learn what to do before we face them again, when we have shown no inclination to do so for two seasons now?

1-3 record against the top 4, and we're fifth. Is this 2019 or 2020?

At the risk of heading into very pessimistic territory, I tried to flag this last year when we lost to Hawthorn.

2018 is really looking like a bit of an anomaly when it comes to us beating the top teams in conditions that don’t favour us.

Every other year under Simpson we have been very successful in terms of wins and losses, finals appearances, but we can’t seem to manage to go up a gear when things don’t suit us. Except for in 2018.

This year is looking the same, despite adding Kelly and Naitanui dominating. I hope the team proves me wrong by the end of the season.

Obviously not every team can win the flag every year as it’s a huge task to win one, but given the quality of the list it feels like we might not have achieved as much as we should have. Can’t completely assess that til the end of the year but.