Prediction Possible pick swaps

[Wayne Swan]

I think they did announce that two part trades wouldn't be allowed and like you have mentioned, the trade must be somewhat equitable, Ken Wood needs to give the ok.

I'm a bit surprised they gave the ok last year but I think that was only because it caught them by surprise and they didn't want to be making up new rules on the fly, like they often do anyway, because they'd be embarassed that they didn't see it coming.!

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Or we let another club take Green before 6 and 2 years later when he is homesick we will get him back for peanuts.

Taking that approach when the bid will come from the Swans...

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[briztoon]

So if GWS were to trade pick 6 out to a 2020 first round pick, and then went into next year with a deficit to make up from matching a Green bid, would that deficit come off their own first round pick, or off the earliest one they hold? I guess the former, but it really is a guess.

Re tightening up rules around pick swaps, has the AFL actually said how they've tightened this up? I read that they were intending to, but then haven't seen anything specific since. Have they announced anything tangible?

Maybe it will just be around insisting that each trade is relatively evenly balanced between the two parties. It was pretty obvious that the first deal the Swans and Eagles entered into last year was just the first leg of a two leg trade because that first leg was so clearly in favour of the Eagles.

Off the earliest pick/s picks they hold.

 

[Mego Red]

Would North Melbourne trade their picks 26 and 27 for GWS 2020 1st, picks 45 and pick 49?

 

[Mego Red]

What about ...

AFC 2020 1st, 45 and 49 for Geelong 2020 1st, 17 and 24?

 

[Mego Red]

How about ...

GWS trade pick 6, a 2020 2nd round pick and pick 59 for AFC 2020 1st rounder, pick 37, 45 and 49?

That gives GWS enough points in 2019 (pick 37, 40, 45, 49, 60) to match a Green bid at pick 5 (AFC won't bid), plus they get an early first in 2020 AND their own first round pick.

The late picks they've already got (59 onwards) probably only go back a few spots. They use the selections for Green AND then get replacement picks at almost the same draft position.

They get Green for the cost of their second next year, in a terrible year. They just delay their pick 6 for a year - and maybe even get an earlier pick, depending on how terrible AFC is.

 

[Obeanie1]

My tip is the Lions will trade two of their 3 3rd rounders to get a lower pick in the 2nd round. Maybe 30 from Hawks.

The Lions will also trade the remaining 3rd rounders that they won't use for a 2020 3rd rounder. I'm hoping the Eagles do that deal likely with Geelongs 2020 3rd rounder.

Basically the Lions turn 48, 55 and 58 into 2019 pick 30 and 2020 pick 52ish.

 

[Mego Red]

My tip is the Lions will trade two of their 3 3rd rounders to get a lower pick in the 2nd round. Maybe 30 from Hawks.

The Lions will also trade the remaining 3rd rounders that they won't use for a 2020 3rd rounder. I'm hoping the Eagles do that deal likely with Geelongs 2020 3rd rounder.

Basically the Lions turn 48, 55 and 58 into 2019 pick 30 and 2020 pick 52ish.

Did you do the math on that?

Hawthorn LOSE points if they trade 30 for 48 and 55.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What about ...

AFC 2020 1st, 45 and 49 for Geelong 2020 1st, 17 and 24?

We are limited for list spots so we want 1 lesspick. Also thats overpaying from Geelongs perspective.

 

[briztoon]

My tip is the Lions will trade two of their 3 3rd rounders to get a lower pick in the 2nd round. Maybe 30 from Hawks.

The Lions will also trade the remaining 3rd rounders that they won't use for a 2020 3rd rounder. I'm hoping the Eagles do that deal likely with Geelongs 2020 3rd rounder.

Basically the Lions turn 48, 55 and 58 into 2019 pick 30 and 2020 pick 52ish.

David Noble has already said we’re trying to trade pick 34 for a future 2020 second round pick.

And one of our 3rd round picks for a future 3rd round pick. Probably pick 48.

We plan on drafting 2 academy kids, who aren’t likely to be bid on the first 35 picks, so we only need our picks in the 50’s to match or straight out draft ourselves.

 

[Mego Red]

We are limited for list spots so we want 1 lesspick. Also thats overpaying from Geelongs perspective.

AFC 2020 1st and 37 for Geelong 2020 1st, 17 and 24?

17 alone wouldn't be enough for a 2020 pickswap. Adelaide will be about pick 5 and Geelong will be closer to pick 16.

 

[Obeanie1]

David Noble has already said we’re trying to trade pick 34 for a future 2020 second round pick.

And one of our 3rd round picks for a future 3rd round pick. Probably pick 48.

We plan on drafting 2 academy kids, who aren’t likely to be bid on the first 35 picks, so we only need our picks in the 50’s to match or straight out draft ourselves.

The Cats 2020 3rd would be 48 if they finished 6th which is about right Id say.

Or the Eagles 3rd in 2020.

I'd offer either of those and let the Lions pick who will finish lower.

With Kelly going to the Eagles and Cats loading up with more 30 yr olds I'd be going for the Geelong 3rd.

 

[Mikevk123]

Could see this happen

Fremantle Receive: 6

GWS Receive: 10 and 22

Gives Fremantle 6 and 7 before a potential Liam Henry Bid. Giants are able to match the Tom Green Pick and still keep their draft hand.

6: Lachy Ash
7: Devon Roberston
8: Liam Henry

 

[Peel67skin]

Could see this happen

Fremantle Receive: 6

GWS Receive: 10 and 22

Gives Fremantle 6 and 7 before a potential Liam Henry Bid. Giants are able to match the Tom Green Pick and still keep their draft hand.

6: Lachy Ash
7: Devon Roberston
8: Liam Henry

Very likely.

 

[eastfreo75]

Could see this happen

Fremantle Receive: 6

GWS Receive: 10 and 22

Gives Fremantle 6 and 7 before a potential Liam Henry Bid. Giants are able to match the Tom Green Pick and still keep their draft hand.

6: Lachy Ash
7: Devon Roberston
8: Liam Henry

We still points for the Henry bid.

 

[Peel67skin]

We still points for the Henry bid.

Can trade your future first before bid come in at pick 8.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

AFC 2020 1st and 37 for Geelong 2020 1st, 17 and 24?

17 alone wouldn't be enough for a 2020 pickswap. Adelaide will be about pick 5 and Geelong will be closer to pick 16.

Im not convinced you will finish that low or us that high. Swap it for wces future 1st and i may do it. I also think with next years draft compromised wed prefer to after this years pick 4 which i doubt you trade.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Did you do the math on that?

Hawthorn LOSE points if they trade 30 for 48 and 55.

30 is for Maginness….It won't be traded away unless the 2 later picks add up to more points than it, otherwise it simply isn't in our interests to do so.

 

[briztoon]

The Cats 2020 3rd would be 48 if they finished 6th which is about right Id say.

Or the Eagles 3rd in 2020.

I'd offer either of those and let the Lions pick who will finish lower.

With Kelly going to the Eagles and Cats loading up with more 30 yr olds I'd be going for the Geelong 3rd.

More likely 58 taking in to account how many academy and father son kids there are in next years draft.

However I wouldn’t be against loading up on 3rd round picks, to then trade them to say Collingwood, for their late 1st round pick.

 

[CrowAng]

Melb pass on bidding for green

Crows trade with gws for 6 for 28, 37, 45 & 2019(dogsrd2) dont bid on green. Should be enough points for a bid at Sydney's pick 5 minus the academy discount. Bonus 2nd rounder next year for giving up pick 6 to us.

Trade 6 for freo's 10 & 22. They would be crazy not to do it.

Trade 10 & 49(maybe 3rd rounder next year instead) to Geelong for 14 & 24

Crows end up with 4, 14, 22, 23 & 24
#4 Flanders or go early on stephens
#14 go early on Gould, mcasey a good option
#22 Cooper Stephens
#23 trent rivers
#24 bid on mead, happy to have him, Dylan williams if not.
Nice mix of goal kicking mid/forward or outside mid, defender, running hb & a forward/mid.

Or scrap the last 2 trades and go to the draft with 4, 6, 23 & 49.
Either way a win-win.

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[Peel67skin]

Melb pass on bidding for green

Crows trade with gws for 6 for 28, 37, 45 & 2019(dogsrd2) dont bid on green. Should be enough points for a bid at Sydney's pick 5 minus the academy discount. Bonus 2nd rounder next year for giving up pick 6 to us.

Trade 6 for freo's 10 & 22. They would be crazy not to do it.

Trade 10 & 49(maybe 3rd rounder next year instead) to Geelong for 14 & 24

Crows end up with 4, 14, 22, 23 & 24
#4 Flanders or go early on stephens
#14 go early on Gould, mcasey a good option
#22 Cooper Stephens
#23 trent rivers
#24 bid on mead, happy to have him, Dylan williams if not.
Nice mix of goal kicking mid/forward or outside mid, defender, running hb & a forward/mid.

Or scrap the last 2 trades and go to the draft with 4, 6, 23 & 49.
Either way a win-win.

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Who did GWS get apart from Green? Who did Fremantle get apart from Henry?
Pick 6 for 15 and 20 with some smart swap pick.

No point swap pick if the outcome is the same as without swap pick.

 

[Drewie11]

Melb pass on bidding for green

Crows trade with gws for 6 for 28, 37, 45 & 2019(dogsrd2) dont bid on green. Should be enough points for a bid at Sydney's pick 5 minus the academy discount. Bonus 2nd rounder next year for giving up pick 6 to us.

Trade 6 for freo's 10 & 22. They would be crazy not to do it.

Trade 10 & 49(maybe 3rd rounder next year instead) to Geelong for 14 & 24

Crows end up with 4, 14, 22, 23 & 24
#4 Flanders or go early on stephens
#14 go early on Gould, mcasey a good option
#22 Cooper Stephens
#23 trent rivers
#24 bid on mead, happy to have him, Dylan williams if not.
Nice mix of goal kicking mid/forward or outside mid, defender, running hb & a forward/mid.

Or scrap the last 2 trades and go to the draft with 4, 6, 23 & 49.
Either way a win-win.

On SM-N976B using BigFooty.com mobile app

GWS want to get ahead of any bid for Green so they can get another high pick plus Green.

 

[Wayne Swan]

GWS burnt points getting to pick 6, they're not giving up that to go back to where they were, they want pick 6 for a reason, either as a stepping stone to pick 3 or for a specific non mid like Jackson.

 

[sydney_gws]

Could see this happen

Fremantle Receive: 6

GWS Receive: 10 and 22

Gives Fremantle 6 and 7 before a potential Liam Henry Bid. Giants are able to match the Tom Green Pick and still keep their draft hand.

6: Lachy Ash
7: Devon Roberston
8: Liam Henry

That might be ok, gws would then maximise points by trading 10,40 to Geelong for 14, 17or 24. If gws does back track from upgrading 6, it should trade twice for points upgrades. We turned 2200 points into 1900 with the 12/18 for 6 trade, I would ideally turn that 1900 points into about 2150 in the first trade, then turn the 2150 into about 2400 points in a second trade.

 

[Mego Red]

GWS burnt points getting to pick 6, they're not giving up that to go back to where they were, they want pick 6 for a reason, either as a stepping stone to pick 3 or for a specific non mid like Jackson.

Yeah, or they got to pick 6 wanting to get to 3 or 4, and now they don't have enough assets to get there.

So, they either trade 6 for more points for Green, or they trade 6 for a first next year, so they get their second elite player, just not in 2019.