Prediction Possible pick swaps

Jul 26, 2007
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More likely 58 taking in to account how many academy and father son kids there are in next years draft.

However I wouldn’t be against loading up on 3rd round picks, to then trade them to say Collingwood, for their late 1st round pick.

Well that depends on the quality of the NGA's doesn't it. That can go two ways. If teams need to use the points from two picks to land their top NGA kid then that takes two picks out of the draft and those third rounds come down not go up.

So a late 3rd could become a mid 3rd rounder.

Won't really know until 12 months time and how well the NGA's and FS's go in the U18 comps and nationals.
 

briztoon

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Well that depends on the quality of the NGA's doesn't it. That can go two ways. If teams need to use the points from two picks to land their top NGA kid then that takes two picks out of the draft and those third rounds come down not go up.

So a late 3rd could become a mid 3rd rounder.

Won't really know until 12 months time and how well the NGA's and FS's go in the U18 comps and nationals.
It only takes one pick “out” of the draft.

One pick “moves up” to where the bid is made, and every subsequent pick moves back one spot.

The second pick moves back to either the end of the draft, or if there are points left over, it moves back to a later pick. So then the picks after move up one spot.
 
Jul 26, 2007
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It only takes one pick “out” of the draft.

One pick “moves up” to where the bid is made, and every subsequent pick moves back one spot.

The second pick moves back to either the end of the draft, or if there are points left over, it moves back to a later pick. So then the picks after move up one spot.

Mate its happened. Clubs use a 2nd and a 3rd to pay for a quality NGA or FS. The pick moves to where the bid is made, the 2nd goes and the 3rd gets moved back to the last round and doesn't get used.

In that scenario a pick say 25 becomes 15 if the player is bid on at 14 and pick 40 gets moved to 90+. Therefore pick 46 improves to pick 45. That happens three times pick 46 becomes 43.

Bidding improves one pick and then pushes another to the last round, in reality it removes a pick that will be used at the draft and improves mid to late 3rd rounders. The late 3rd rounders can actually improve.

All depends on the quality of the NGA and the picks you have.
 

briztoon

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Mate its happened. Clubs use a 2nd and a 3rd to pay for a quality NGA or FS. The pick moves to where the bid is made, the 2nd goes and the 3rd gets moved back to the last round and doesn't get used.

In that scenario a pick say 25 becomes 15 if the player is bid on at 14 and pick 40 gets moved to 90+. Therefore pick 46 improves to pick 45. That happens three times pick 46 becomes 43.

Bidding improves one pick and then pushes another to the last round, in reality it removes a pick that will be used at the draft and improves mid to late 3rd rounders. The late 3rd rounders can actually improve.

All depends on the quality of the NGA and the picks you have.
But your post I quoted specifically mentioned using just two picks to match. That’s what I replied to.

Now you’re introducing a different scenario with a third pick. I wouldn’t have commented if you mentioned paying with 3 picks originally, but subsequent picks only moving up two spots.
 

Mego Red

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We need the points for Finn mate. Agree.
The Crows could trade you 37 and 49 for 30 and 92 - that gives to a 20% or so point increase on just 30.
 
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Mego Red

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But your post I quoted specifically mentioned using just two picks to match. That’s what I replied to.

Now you’re introducing a different scenario with a third pick. I wouldn’t have commented if you mentioned paying with 3 picks originally, but subsequent picks only moving up two spots.
I'm not sure your reply makes sense.

A club uses a second and third rounder to match a first round bid. The second rounder moves "up", the third goes to the back of the draft.

Therefore, for other clubs - if you have a pick between the first round bid and the original second rounder, you move back a pick. If you have a pick between the original second rounder and the third rounder, you're at the same spot. All picks between the third rounder and the end of the draft move up a spot.
 

briztoon

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I'm not sure your reply makes sense.

A club uses a second and third rounder to match a first round bid. The second rounder moves "up", the third goes to the back of the draft.

Therefore, for other clubs - if you have a pick between the first round bid and the original second rounder, you move back a pick. If you have a pick between the original second rounder and the third rounder, you're at the same spot. All picks between the third rounder and the end of the draft move up a spot.
Please read the original post I replied to.

Well that depends on the quality of the NGA's doesn't it. That can go two ways. If teams need to use the points from two picks to land their top NGA kid then that takes two picks out of the draft and those third rounds come down not go up.

So a late 3rd could become a mid 3rd rounder.

Won't really know until 12 months time and how well the NGA's and FS's go in the U18 comps and nationals.
 
GWS burnt points getting to pick 6, they're not giving up that to go back to where they were, they want pick 6 for a reason, either as a stepping stone to pick 3 or for a specific non mid like Jackson.

Yes but sydney will bid on green which wipes out 6. I cant see them getting jackson unless they get 3 or 4.
 
Jul 26, 2007
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But your post I quoted specifically mentioned using just two picks to match. That’s what I replied to.

Now you’re introducing a different scenario with a third pick. I wouldn’t have commented if you mentioned paying with 3 picks originally, but subsequent picks only moving up two spots.

What 3rd pick?

My scenario was if a club uses say 25 and 42 to pay for a bid at 14 then 25 and 42 becomes pick 15 and a pick in the 5th round which isn't used.

For picks after 42 the result is they improve one pick as one pick below them has now moved to the end of the draft.

Only two picks involved. One moves to a better position the other gets pushed to the end of the draft. Picks in the later 3rd round benefit.
 

Peel67skin

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Yes but sydney will bid on green which wipes out 6. I cant see them getting jackson unless they get 3 or 4.
I can see GWS trading with Geelong or GCS with both team having first round and second Rd pick that enough for pick 3 bid without trading their future 1st and keep pick 40. With so many good players in their team I don't think getting one less top 10 players matters to them that much or their priority.
 
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Could see something along the lines of

Hawks trade Picks 30 & 54 to Richmond for Picks 39, 41 & 56.

Richmond have a host of late 2nd & 3rd round picks and may move to move up a bit.

Hawks want points for Maginness match. Pick 39 & 41 covers anything from Pick 12 onwards so we keep pick 42, 56, left over points pick & 63.

So Hawks draft pick 11, Maginness & 42.

Trade a couple or all of those later picks for a future 3rd. If Maginness gets bid on at pick 19 we'll use pick 39 & 41 will get moved back to pick 47.

Trade pick 47 for a future 3rd.
Trade pick 56 & 63 for a future 3rd

Not sure which teams would be interested in the above later pick swaps.

Hawks need future picks to match a bid for Downie and we've already traded away our 2nd so need some 3rd rounders for points.

All a bit convoluted but hope some of it makes sense.
 
I can see GWS trading with Geelong or GCS with both team having first round and second Rd pick that enough for pick 3 bid without trading their future 1st and keep pick 40. With so many good players in their team I don't think getting one less top 10 players matters to them that much or their priority.

I think we would be keen to trade for 6 if its on the table.
 

Peel67skin

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I think we would be keen to trade for 6 if its on the table.
If Geelong do it most probably need to give up pick 14 plus your two second Rd and get one of their fourth Rd pick 59 back.
Gws use 14 and 24 for Green and get two more players with pick 36 and pick 40. Geelong get pick 6 plus own pick 17 and one or two speculative pick 59, 60 - most probably move up.
 
If Geelong do it most probably need to give up pick 14 plus your two second Rd and get one of their fourth Rd pick 59 back.
Gws use 14 and 24 for Green and get two more players with pick 36 and pick 40. Geelong get pick 6 plus own pick 17 and one or two speculative pick 59, 60 - most probably move up.

We dont want late picks (unless they are 2020 not 2019) as we are tight for list spots and part of the reason to trade up would be to turn our 4 picks into 3. Something like say 14 and 24 or 14 and wces FR1 we'd likely do...we may throw in 36 if a future pick (say future 3rd or something) came back. That said i think gws will try and trade up to 3.
 

Peel67skin

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We dont want late picks (unless they are 2020 not 2019) as we are tight for list spots and part of the reason to trade up would be to turn our 4 picks into 3. Something like say 14 and 24 or 14 and wces FR1 we'd likely do...we may throw in 36 if a future pick (say future 3rd or something) came back. That said i think gws will try and trade up to 3.
Pick 14 and Eagles future 1 or pick 24/ pick 36 not enough point for Green. No point for GWS to use pick 14, 36 and pick 40 for Green or pick 14, 24 and 40 for Green if bid come in at 3.


I think GWS want to move up to 3 but they don't have players to trade now or good future draft pick to move up.

If Geelong not willing to trade the other trade involve GC or Fremantle.
Both deal end up green bid at 3 eating up pick 15,20 or 10,22 and left GWS with pick 40. I just can't see the point for GWS trading future 1,2,3 Rd pick for another top 10 players.
 
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CrowAng

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Who did GWS get apart from Green? Who did Fremantle get apart from Henry?
Pick 6 for 15 and 20 with some smart swap pick.

No point swap pick if the outcome is the same as without swap pick.
Gws wont have much of a choice but to trade down again if Melb won't trade with them. Crows could offer not bidding at 4 plus points and an extra 2020 pick.

Freo - guarantees no bid comes for Liam Henry by giving up pick 10 & 22 for 6 that would be used up if he receives a bid before 10.
Quite possible for gws or Freo to trade with Geelong or suns too. Just a thought though.

Crows are the only team that can guarantee gws they wont bid at 4 if Melb don't bid.

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Why would GWS now be downgrading pick 6 given they burnt a shed load of points upgrading to it?

If they try and fail to get 3 or 4 and they know you guys will bid on green then they might swap 6 out for a net points gain.
 

TryAnHit

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If melb pass on green bid

Can def see adel trading with gws for 6 + 2020 first then taking stephens at 6
Feels a little early at 4.. and adel will prob want a fast SA based lad
 

Crazy Tails

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With our first pick this year not being until 35 I’m hoping that we might get creative to try and get back into the back end of this years first round. Rumour is we like a player tipped to go in the 10-25 range.

I would target the Suns pick 20 which will be the first draft pick of Day 2. Similar to what Suns did with WC last year to land McLennan. Lots of time overnight to come up with a pick swap.

If there is a player on the board after draft Day 1, (who we consider a first round talent) I’d consider offering our 2020 first pick for 20. Suns will have already taken 3 inside the top 15 and could be tempted to pass on 20 to get another 1st for 2020.

Pies also have a highly touted NGA player next year (Reef McInnes) who is likely to get a relatively early bid. If we offload our 2020 first for one this year then the former is off the table and wouldn’t be consumed by bid matching. We then still have 2 x 2020 2nd rounders banked (after Aish trade) to match on McInnes. So in essence we are turning 1 first round pick into getting 2 first round quality players.


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Crow_68

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Could see this happen

Fremantle Receive: 6

GWS Receive: 10 and 22

Gives Fremantle 6 and 7 before a potential Liam Henry Bid. Giants are able to match the Tom Green Pick and still keep their draft hand.

6: Lachy Ash
7: Devon Roberston
8: Liam Henry

Only issue is that Henry would likely cost Freo their 2020 1st - depends on their strategy for next year.

I still think this is a solid trade for both clubs.


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