Prediction Possible pick swaps

Mego Red

The Artist Formerly Known As Kristof
Oct 3, 2003
18,527
19,117
The East Coast
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Adelaide
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Soft spot for Brisbane
Risk is GWS or Sydney then take Stephens before pick 6.


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That's not a big deal. Means another better player is still on the table. Stephens is probably not the 6th best player in the draft, if you're just ranking by talent.
 

Orange Agent

Premiership Player
Oct 12, 2016
3,722
4,097
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GWS
Could see this happen

Fremantle Receive: 6

GWS Receive: 10 and 22

Gives Fremantle 6 and 7 before a potential Liam Henry Bid. Giants are able to match the Tom Green Pick and still keep their draft hand.

6: Lachy Ash
7: Devon Roberston
8: Liam Henry
Keep what draft hand? First live pick would be around 40. Terrible trade for us.
 

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Clems Knee

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2009
7,068
13,689
Perth
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Fremantle
Keep what draft hand? First live pick would be around 40. Terrible trade for us.
I agree.
Freo could trade up with GWS, but it will only work if both teams improve their hand.

Currently, assuming Green is bid before 6, GWS will have Green and 40, 59 and 60. Their 2020 draft picks are unaffected.

Currently, assuming Henry bid is after 10, Freo will have 7, 10 and Henry. Their 2020 draft picks may move slightly back.
Assuming Henry is bid before 10, Freo will have 7, Henry and 22. Their 2020 draft picks are unaffected.

GWS give pick 6, 40, future second. Freo give future first and 22.
Green is bid on at 5. GWS match with 22, 59, 60 which means their 2020 1st round draft pick will only drop a place.

Freo now have 6,7, 10 and 40 and GWS have Green and a (probably very) high 2020 pick. The trade for GWS is in effect pick 40, 59 and 60 for a top ten (maybe top three) pick,

GWS can live pick with Freo or another club to get back into the draft with either of their first round picks. Freo could use 6,7 then have the choice of using pick 10 if a Henry bid doesn’t come early, or trade down to get more points if a bid does come early, or trade to get some future picks back.


A trade with GWS and Freo could be pick 10 and 58 for GWS 2020 1st round pick.

End result: Freo 6,7, Henry, 2020 GWS 1st and 2nd rounder ( maybe drop a position or two in next year’s first round)
GWS Green, 10, 58, 2020 Freo 1st rounder

If Henry bid comes late
Freo get 6,7,10, Henry, GWS second rounder, lose 2020 first round pick and may go into small deficit in points, depending on how late.
GWS get Green and 2020 Freo 1st rounder which they can trade with other teams or keep for themselves.
 

Greendale

Draftee
Nov 2, 2019
3
2
AFL Club
Melbourne
Megatrade idea:

Melbourne receive: Pick 4, GWS future first
Melbourne give: Pick 3, future second (Hawthorn)

GWS receive: Pick 3
GWS give: Pick 6, future first, pick 40

Adelaide receive: Pick 5, pick 40
Adelaide give: Pick 4

Sydney receive: Pick 6, future second (Hawthorn)
Sydney give: Pick 5

Then the draft goes:
3 - Jackson (GWS)
4 - Young (Melbourne)
5 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Adelaide)
6 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Sydney)
7 - Bid for Green, Anyone (Freo)

Melbourne gets the player they want plus a decent pick upgrade next year. GWS get Jackson and Green, while pushing the Green bid from 3 to 7. Sydney and Adelaide pick the same players that they would have otherwise selected, but they get some free draft picks in exchange for not bidding for Green.
 

Peel67skin

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
7,113
3,306
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Gold Coast
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Liverpool
Megatrade idea:

Melbourne receive: Pick 4, GWS future first
Melbourne give: Pick 3, future second (Hawthorn)

GWS receive: Pick 3
GWS give: Pick 6, future first, pick 40

Adelaide receive: Pick 5, pick 40
Adelaide give: Pick 4

Sydney receive: Pick 6, future second (Hawthorn)
Sydney give: Pick 5

Then the draft goes:
3 - Jackson (GWS)
4 - Young (Melbourne)
5 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Adelaide)
6 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Sydney)
7 - Bid for Green, Anyone (Freo)

Melbourne gets the player they want plus a decent pick upgrade next year. GWS get Jackson and Green, while pushing the Green bid from 3 to 7. Sydney and Adelaide pick the same players that they would have otherwise selected, but they get some free draft picks in exchange for not bidding for Green.
Sydney downgrade to pick 6 and get Hawthorn future second for fun.
 

Peel67skin

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
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Could probably just make it Melbourne's future 3rd instead. I still think everyone benefits.
I just don't think Sydney want to waste too much time on Future pick, they can easily trade 2021 pick if they really want hawthorn or Melbourne 2020 second Rd or third Rd pick next year
 

Clems Knee

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2009
7,068
13,689
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Megatrade idea:

Melbourne receive: Pick 4, GWS future first
Melbourne give: Pick 3, future second (Hawthorn)

GWS receive: Pick 3
GWS give: Pick 6, future first, pick 40

Adelaide receive: Pick 5, pick 40
Adelaide give: Pick 4

Sydney receive: Pick 6, future second (Hawthorn)
Sydney give: Pick 5

Then the draft goes:
3 - Jackson (GWS)
4 - Young (Melbourne)
5 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Adelaide)
6 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Sydney)
7 - Bid for Green, Anyone (Freo)

Melbourne gets the player they want plus a decent pick upgrade next year. GWS get Jackson and Green, while pushing the Green bid from 3 to 7. Sydney and Adelaide pick the same players that they would have otherwise selected, but they get some free draft picks in exchange for not bidding for Green.
GWS give up a first rounder and a pick 40 for a movement of 3 places. They are getting Green anyway. Is pick 3 worth their 2020 first rounder, pick 40 and a deficit in points? That’s a lot to pay. I don’t think they would consider themselves winners in this trade.

Melbourne get an extra first rounder for the loss of one place in the draft. That’s a huge result for them. (Checks club of poster proposing trade. Hmmmm.)
Adelaide and Sydney both give up too much for what they are getting.
 

Greendale

Draftee
Nov 2, 2019
3
2
AFL Club
Melbourne
GWS give up a first rounder and a pick 40 for a movement of 3 places. They are getting Green anyway. Is pick 3 worth their 2020 first rounder, pick 40 and a deficit in points? That’s a lot to pay. I don’t think they would consider themselves winners in this trade.

Melbourne get an extra first rounder for the loss of one place in the draft. That’s a huge result for them. (Checks club of poster proposing trade. Hmmmm.)
Adelaide and Sydney both give up too much for what they are getting.
Adelaide and Sydney both give up nothing. They are selecting the same players they would otherwise and are getting more. Melbourne currently hold all the cards as they can bid for Green unless GWS trade with them. Next year is going to be a heavily compromised draft so GWS' 2020 first won't be worth as much as you might expect. Also the difference in points in matching a bid at pick 3 compared to pick 7 is 590 points, while pick 40 is worth 429.
 

Clems Knee

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2009
7,068
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Perth
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Adelaide and Sydney both give up nothing. They are selecting the same players they would otherwise and are getting more. Melbourne currently hold all the cards as they can bid for Green unless GWS trade with them. Next year is going to be a heavily compromised draft so GWS' 2020 first won't be worth as much as you might expect. Also the difference in points in matching a bid at pick 3 compared to pick 7 is 590 points, while pick 40 is worth 429.
Yeh sorry, I read Adelaide and Sydney’s trades wrong. Doesn’t change that it’s a poor deal for GWS and a ripper for Melbourne.

If Melbourne get too greedy (eg this trade), GWS will hide their pick in 2020 picks and trade back in after the Green bid.

And next year isn’t much more compromised than this year’s. Lystics goes into detail to refute that popular view. It does seem likely to be weaker though.
 
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Cobwebs

Team Captain
Oct 21, 2019
380
294
AFL Club
Melbourne
Adelaide and Sydney both give up nothing. They are selecting the same players they would otherwise and are getting more. Melbourne currently hold all the cards as they can bid for Green unless GWS trade with them. Next year is going to be a heavily compromised draft so GWS' 2020 first won't be worth as much as you might expect. Also the difference in points in matching a bid at pick 3 compared to pick 7 is 590 points, while pick 40 is worth 429.
Problem I have would be asking North for our future first back. They would want pick 8 back.. Sorry see below.
 

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Orange Agent

Premiership Player
Oct 12, 2016
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I don't think we can afford to lose 40 for the points value to match Green, it's too big of a deficit for next year. Happy to do 6 and 2020 first for 3. Lets just say a 500 point deficit next year with no first rounder and a top 4 ladder finish pretty much wipes you out of the draft unless players are traded out.
 

Mego Red

The Artist Formerly Known As Kristof
Oct 3, 2003
18,527
19,117
The East Coast
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Adelaide
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Soft spot for Brisbane
Yeh sorry, I read Adelaide and Sydney’s trades wrong. Doesn’t change that it’s a poor deal for GWS and a ripper for Melbourne.

If Melbourne get too greedy (eg this trade), GWS will hide their pick in 2020 picks and trade back in after the Green bid.

And next year isn’t much more compromised than this year’s. Lystics goes into detail to refute that popular view. It does seem likely to be weaker though.
Well Lystics might have started the podcast wanting to argue that, but by the end they got to the point that it wasn't in the top three or four most compromised drafts, which frankly no one was suggesting.

We should never see compromised drafts again like those years when GWS and Gold Coast was starting. They are outliers.

Next year is much worse than typical, though - and hopefully it is not the new normal.
 

Jordie_tackles

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 25, 2009
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Megatrade idea:

Melbourne receive: Pick 4, GWS future first
Melbourne give: Pick 3, future second (Hawthorn)

GWS receive: Pick 3
GWS give: Pick 6, future first, pick 40

Adelaide receive: Pick 5, pick 40
Adelaide give: Pick 4

Sydney receive: Pick 6, future second (Hawthorn)
Sydney give: Pick 5

Then the draft goes:
3 - Jackson (GWS)
4 - Young (Melbourne)
5 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Adelaide)
6 - Serong/Flanders/Kemp/Ash (Sydney)
7 - Bid for Green, Anyone (Freo)

Melbourne gets the player they want plus a decent pick upgrade next year. GWS get Jackson and Green, while pushing the Green bid from 3 to 7. Sydney and Adelaide pick the same players that they would have otherwise selected, but they get some free draft picks in exchange for not bidding for Green.
If I was Adelaide I would want the full future second before Sydney’s, isn’t that about pick 30? Rather than 40?
 

Mego Red

The Artist Formerly Known As Kristof
Oct 3, 2003
18,527
19,117
The East Coast
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Soft spot for Brisbane
Pick 6 and 2020 GWS 1st

for 28 and 45 and 2020 Crows 1st, and a promise not to bid on Green.

GWS can get Green for picks 28, 40 and 45, if the bid for him comes at Sydney's pick 5.

GWS also get to have an elite early draft pick, but in 2020 instead of 2019.
 

Mitchell54

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2013
9,058
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Sixers, Exers, GWS Womens
Pick 6 and 2020 GWS 1st

for 28 and 45 and 2020 Crows 1st, and a promise not to bid on Green.

GWS can get Green for picks 28, 40 and 45, if the bid for him comes at Sydney's pick 5.

GWS also get to have an elite early draft pick, but in 2020 instead of 2019.
Tbh I'd be slamming the door in Adelaides face if I were GWS.

Adelaide are likely to finish mid table or so next year and GWS could finish anywhere in the top 8. Chances are that the difference isn't that wide, especially with the amount of academy players there are next year.

Remove the future 1st from GWS and it's more even imo.

They could easily get more for Pick 6 from another side.

Look at the Melbourne/North deal as something closer to the mark.
 

Rory Walkerfield

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2012
8,652
15,215
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Adelaide
Tbh I'd be slamming the door in Adelaides face if I were GWS.

Adelaide are likely to finish mid table or so next year and GWS could finish anywhere in the top 8. Chances are that the difference isn't that wide, especially with the amount of academy players there are next year.

Remove the future 1st from GWS and it's more even imo.

They could easily get more for Pick 6 from another side.

Look at the Melbourne/North deal as something closer to the mark.
I’m not sure this is true.

Other teams either:
1. don’t have enough later picks to hand to GWS for points this year (which means the balance of points will come off GWS first pick next year pushing it further back); or
2. are likely to have later first picks next year (if they put those on the table) so would be less attractive to GWS

I think those that have the collateral to deal with GWS are Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong and GCS.

I reckon a deal involving GCS picks 15, 20 and 2020 pick 11 could be a winner for both GWS and GCS assuming GWS don’t get their hands on picks 3, 4 or 5 this year.
 

Two Planks

Norm Smith Medallist
May 14, 2012
6,223
8,342
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Geelong
I wouldn't be surprised if Gold Coast trade with Melbourne for pick 3.

They then bid on Green at pick 1 and completely blow the Giants out of the water.

They then pick Rowell and Anderson at 2 and 3.

Less likely the go home factor for a kid from Canberra.

If Giants match pick 1 the Suns can pick Jackson at 4 and have a developing young ruckman.
 

LukeParkerno1

Post-Human
Sep 23, 2005
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I wouldn't be surprised if Gold Coast trade with Melbourne for pick 3.

They then bid on Green at pick 1 and completely blow the Giants out of the water.

They then pick Rowell and Anderson at 2 and 3.

Less likely the go home factor for a kid from Canberra.

If Giants match pick 1 the Suns can pick Jackson at 4 and have a developing young ruckman.
There is no way you’d bid on Green at 1, and run the risk of losing the best two talents in the draft. Would be beyond dumb
 

Orange Agent

Premiership Player
Oct 12, 2016
3,722
4,097
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GWS
I wouldn't be surprised if Gold Coast trade with Melbourne for pick 3.

They then bid on Green at pick 1 and completely blow the Giants out of the water.

They then pick Rowell and Anderson at 2 and 3.

Less likely the go home factor for a kid from Canberra.

If Giants match pick 1 the Suns can pick Jackson at 4 and have a developing young ruckman.
Im pretty sure none of that is likely to happen.
 

Orange Agent

Premiership Player
Oct 12, 2016
3,722
4,097
AFL Club
GWS
Pick 6 and 2020 GWS 1st

for 28 and 45 and 2020 Crows 1st, and a promise not to bid on Green.

GWS can get Green for picks 28, 40 and 45, if the bid for him comes at Sydney's pick 5.

GWS also get to have an elite early draft pick, but in 2020 instead of 2019.
No thanks.
 

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