Prediction Possible pick swaps

TylerDurden

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I don’t think Freo get reamed. 4 first round picks this year would be pretty special. If we trade badly we might get only 2.

They could get pick 6,7 and 10 and still have a second round pick next year, as well as Henry. You have to pay more for futures than current year.
If a bid on Henry comes before 10, Freo could trade out 10 for another 2020 pick. Eg with Hawthorn.
If a bid comes after 10 then the 22 would have been gone anyway, and pick 40 would give a lot of the points towards paying for him.

Of course I’m hoping GWS wants to trade with Freo as it would be beneficial to both, but other teams could also offer up their future picks in a trade for pick 6, so that the pick isn’t used up on Green.

I don’t think it’s a good idea for GWS to trade with Melbourne or Adelaide . Or for Freo to trade with Melbourne or Carlton. The teams with picks just before their pick are bound to use extortion to force a trade massively in their favour.
We'd do that I reckon.
 

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Suma Magic

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https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2019-live-trading-rules-loophole-closed-sydney-swans-west-coast-trade/news-story/0b1022550b10b9c2c3e1939f8e38b8a2?fbclid=IwAR1nMwBxkz8UEpE_Vl9SP5YE3hFbMA6zv1JWoVcH4PpT--JVnjsTVpuQjLk

“A club, now, will not be allowed to strike two separate deals with the same rival team in an attempt to use less valuable selections to match a bid on an academy or father-son prospect on draft night.”

So the trades to hide picks will not be as easy to make as last year.

I have previously suggested two GWS-Freo Trades to get more currency for the draft picks just before the bid. That now looks impossible.
Assuming GWS don’t get to trade their pick 6 to before the Green bid, they could still hide their pick. It would just mean a few picks would need to be involved and each trade would need to be beneficial to participating clubs.
Eg if bid comes at 5, GWS gives 6 and 40, Freo gives 22, 58 and 2020 first and second round pick.

After the trade, GWS matches bid on Green (1878 - discount = 1502) with picks 22, 58,59,60 and 183 point deficit
GWS then trades Freo’s 2020 1st Round pick or two second round picks (GWS and Freo’s) for a pick in the teens. Perhaps Geelong or Port Adelaide.
GWS get to turn Green and picks after 40 into Green and 2020 first rounder or two second rounders, or whatever you can trade them back into.
The only quote in the article:

“A club may not trade away a selection with another club for a later selection, use that later selection to counter a bid on one of their Academy players and then once that player is secured, trade in a selection with that same club to receive a higher selection in the national draft order,” an AFL spokesperson confirmed to foxfooty.com.au.

What they have described isn’t even what sydney did. They didn’t trade for a later selection that was used to match a bid.

Based on the afl quote flip flop trades are still fine so long as the pick coming in isn’t used to match a bid.
 

Thetrader15

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What about the Dees pick 8 to Port for their picks 12&18?

Originally it was the Saints who traded pick 6 to GWS for 12&18, so the pick swap I’m suggesting is around the mark.

It might be in Melbourne’s interest to increase the spread of talent to three players in the top 20, allowing Port to really target an elite top 8 talent.

I would be open to this swap by my club. Go to the draft with 3, 12 & 18.
Melbourne sold the farm for pick 8 (26, 50, 2020/1), I can't see them moving it out for picks 12 and 18
 

old55

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Melbourne sold the farm for pick 8 (26, 50, 2020/1), I can't see them moving it out for picks 12 and 18
I think it's possible. That or 10 and 22 from Freo.

Would you take 18 for 26 and 50, it's a good deal if you're not planning to use 50.

That leaves 12 for MFC 2020 1st which means MFC has to make final to break even and the club expects to do that despite this year's result.

Would give us 3, 12 and 18 - we'll probably only take 3 picks. We have 5 list vacancies = 3 ND picks, Bennell and a DFA.
 

Cobwebs

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To get a first round pick, somebody they like ast 17. It might not be possible, or some other small swap in their favour could be added.
Melbourne have pick 8 they got from.....oh North. So they might miss out on the proposed Geelong offer. 8> 14/17/24 combo. LOL only North.
 

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Kangas_11

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Combo of 14/17/24, means a combination like 14 and 24 or 14 and 17 or 17 and 24. How about now, think they are interested? North could have done this.lol
So you would rather #17 + #24 over a 2020 1st (#1-#8) + #26 + #50?

Don't need a points calculator to show that second deal is way better.
 

Cobwebs

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So you would rather #17 + #24 over a 2020 1st (#1-#8) + #26 + #50?

Don't need a points calculator to show that second deal is way better.
Another one that can only work trades out by the points calculator. Look outside the box, try a different way, expand your mind. There is more to a trade than for and against points. And I never said I would prefer it, just pointing out it would have been a better deal for our not so accomplished cousins . ps closer to 11- 13 you will get.;)
 
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Kangas_11

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Another one that can only work trades out by the points calculator. Look outside the box, try a different way, expand your mind. There is more to a trade than for and against points. And I never said I would prefer it, just pointing out it would have been a better deal for our not so accomplished cousins . ps closer to 11- 13 you will get.;)
No shit Sherlock, of course there's more to trades than the points, but this one literally has no players attached so value of picks is the only way to judge it.

If you think North trading #8 for #17 + #24 is a better deal than what we got, you're an idiot.

Even with your ambitious pick 11 prediction, it's still a substantially better offer. Although with your nonsensical "not so accomplished cousins" comment it is pretty obvious you're just trolling now anyway.
 

Andre the Giant

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I’d prefer to pass on a super early bid for green and take young at 6. Green is too similar to most of our midfielders and young provides a point of difference
The only guy I’d consider passing on ahead of Green is Rowell and that isn’t possible.

No doubt we have strength at inside mid but Cal is pushing 30 and coming off an ACL and we won’t be able to keep all the others as their values soar.

Green is a bit taller than the rest, has incredibly deft touch and the ability to get and deliver in close like few others and is home grown.

He is most likely best available at our pick and cannot be ignored for any of the other players mentioned.

He’s locked in.
 
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Watsclarkosmob

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I've been having some fun with this to see how I can improve Hawthorn's position and here's my dream play out of draft night that I feel is fair on all sides, but obviously I'm a little bias with my desired outcome.

I would like Hawthorn to take the best possible talent at pick 11. Say a bid comes for Finn Maginness at what I believe will be Geelongs pick 17. Before Hawthorn matches it I would seek a trade with Richmond for our pick 30 (629 points) for Richmonds 2020 second round (pick ~36) and their pick 56 (696 points). This gets Richmond in the draft earlier for what I believe will be a higher pick than what their 2020 draft position will be and their fifth pick in pick 56 that they might not have been using anyway.

Then use the points from picks 42, 54, 56 and 63 (921 points) to match the bid for Maginness which I believe we would need 820 points to get him at pick 17. This will also send back 101 points giving us pick 64/65.

Hawthorn then try and get pick 20 from Gold Coast seeing it will be their fourth for the night using Hawthorns 2020 first round (pick 10-14). It would be nice to get pick 20 and Brisbane's 2020 second round, but that tips it in Hawthorn's favour too much and Gold Coast don't have a current third round or future third round. To get the deal over the line just straight up Hawthorns 2020 first round for Gold Coasts pick 20. Also picking up a draft pick in a later round will be cheaper for the Gold Coast, all these high end picks are on good contracts for developing players.

Then use Richmonds 2020 second round to trade with Adelaide for their pick 37. Thinking would be that this is Adelaides fourth pick of the evening and only eight picks in front of their next pick of pick 45 where the draft should even out a little and they would not miss out on much. Plus Adelaide had a tough end to the year, and if they can trade their pick four for GWS pick 6 and future first round. They could walk into trade period next year with two first rounds, two-second rounds and three fourth rounds, which could allow them to be quite aggressive during trade period.

Then the final move of the evening would be using pick 64/65 to trade with West Coast for a future fourth round, allowing Hawthorn to get something for an unused pick and West Coast gets their second pick earlier than pick 91.

Hawthorn walks out of draft night with players at picks 11, ~17, 20, 37 and a future fourth round.

A bit of fun, obviously all these trades went through because I am a Hawthorn supporter and I wanted them to, draft night will be much more challenging. Realistic? Unrealistic? You had your eyes on my draft pick targets, if so what are your trade plans?

EDIT: Adelaide would actually have three 2020 second rounds. Thank you 'Crow till I die'. That really would be quite a hand to be walking into trade period with, I would so be taking it.
 
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Crow till I die

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I've been having some fun with this to see how I can improve Hawthorn's position and here's my dream play out of draft night that I feel is fair on all sides, but obviously I'm a little bias with my desired outcome.

I would like Hawthorn to take the best possible talent at pick 11. Say a bid comes for Finn Maginness at what I believe will be Geelongs pick 17. Before Hawthorn matches it I would seek a trade with Richmond for our pick 30 (629 points) for Richmonds 2020 second round (pick ~36) and their pick 56 (696 points). This gets Richmond in the draft earlier for what I believe will be a higher pick than what their 2020 draft position will be and their fifth pick in pick 56 that they might not have been using anyway.

Then use the points from picks 42, 54, 56 and 63 (921 points) to match the bid for Maginness which I believe we would need 820 points to get him at pick 17. This will also send back 101 points giving us pick 64/65.

Hawthorn then try and get pick 20 from Gold Coast seeing it will be their fourth for the night using Hawthorns 2020 first round (pick 10-14). It would be nice to get pick 20 and Brisbane's 2020 second round, but that tips it in Hawthorn's favour too much and Gold Coast don't have a current third round or future third round. To get the deal over the line just straight up Hawthorns 2020 first round for Gold Coasts pick 20. Also picking up a draft pick in a later round will be cheaper for the Gold Coast, all these high end picks are on good contracts for developing players.

Then use Richmonds 2020 second round to trade with Adelaide for their pick 37. Thinking would be that this is Adelaides fourth pick of the evening and only eight picks in front of their next pick of pick 45 where the draft should even out a little and they would not miss out on much. Plus Adelaide had a tough end to the year, and if they can trade their pick four for GWS pick 6 and future first round. They could walk into trade period next year with two first rounds, two-second rounds and three fourth rounds, which could allow them to be quite aggressive during trade period.

Then the final move of the evening would be using pick 64/65 to trade with West Coast for a future fourth round, allowing Hawthorn to get something for an unused pick and West Coast gets their second pick earlier than pick 91.

Hawthorn walks out of draft night with players at picks 11, ~17, 20, 37 and a future fourth round.

A bit of fun, obviously all these trades went through because I am a Hawthorn supporter and I wanted them to, draft night will be much more challenging. Realistic? Unrealistic? You had your eyes on my draft pick targets, if so what are your trade plans?
Just touching it up that if the crows did that trade they would have 3 x 2020 2nd rounders as they also have the bulldogs pick..it would be a good hand especially if they traded 4 for 6 + gws 2020 1st. But i don't think they will want to defer any more picks other than if they did the trade with gws as they need players this year
 

Procrastinator35

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I've been having some fun with this to see how I can improve Hawthorn's position and here's my dream play out of draft night that I feel is fair on all sides, but obviously I'm a little bias with my desired outcome.

I would like Hawthorn to take the best possible talent at pick 11. Say a bid comes for Finn Maginness at what I believe will be Geelongs pick 17. Before Hawthorn matches it I would seek a trade with Richmond for our pick 30 (629 points) for Richmonds 2020 second round (pick ~36) and their pick 56 (696 points). This gets Richmond in the draft earlier for what I believe will be a higher pick than what their 2020 draft position will be and their fifth pick in pick 56 that they might not have been using anyway.

Then use the points from picks 42, 54, 56 and 63 (921 points) to match the bid for Maginness which I believe we would need 820 points to get him at pick 17. This will also send back 101 points giving us pick 64/65.

Hawthorn then try and get pick 20 from Gold Coast seeing it will be their fourth for the night using Hawthorns 2020 first round (pick 10-14). It would be nice to get pick 20 and Brisbane's 2020 second round, but that tips it in Hawthorn's favour too much and Gold Coast don't have a current third round or future third round. To get the deal over the line just straight up Hawthorns 2020 first round for Gold Coasts pick 20. Also picking up a draft pick in a later round will be cheaper for the Gold Coast, all these high end picks are on good contracts for developing players.

Then use Richmonds 2020 second round to trade with Adelaide for their pick 37. Thinking would be that this is Adelaides fourth pick of the evening and only eight picks in front of their next pick of pick 45 where the draft should even out a little and they would not miss out on much. Plus Adelaide had a tough end to the year, and if they can trade their pick four for GWS pick 6 and future first round. They could walk into trade period next year with two first rounds, two-second rounds and three fourth rounds, which could allow them to be quite aggressive during trade period.

Then the final move of the evening would be using pick 64/65 to trade with West Coast for a future fourth round, allowing Hawthorn to get something for an unused pick and West Coast gets their second pick earlier than pick 91.

Hawthorn walks out of draft night with players at picks 11, ~17, 20, 37 and a future fourth round.

A bit of fun, obviously all these trades went through because I am a Hawthorn supporter and I wanted them to, draft night will be much more challenging. Realistic? Unrealistic? You had your eyes on my draft pick targets, if so what are your trade plans?

EDIT: Adelaide would actually have three 2020 second rounds. Thank you 'Crow till I die'. That really would be quite a hand to be walking into trade period with, I would so be taking it.
You can't re-trade out the 2020 Second rounder from Richmond for Pick 37, as you never secured the Lions second rounder for the straight swap with the Gold Coast for our 2020 First for this years pick 20.

So it's pick 11, Maginness @ 17 & Pick 20.....I'd certainly look to do that given there's a player there I have in mind.

Next years 2nd & 3rd should be ample for the projected & expected Downie bid.
 

Watsclarkosmob

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You can't re-trade out the 2020 Second rounder from Richmond for Pick 37, as you never secured the Lions second rounder for the straight swap with the Gold Coast for our 2020 First for this years pick 20.

So it's pick 11, Maginness @ 17 & Pick 20.....I'd certainly look to do that given there's a player there I have in mind.

Next years 2nd & 3rd should be ample for the projected & expected Downie bid.
Who are you liking at pick 20?

Why can't we trade out Richmonds 2020 second round? Do we have to have at least hold onto one pick in the first two rounds of the 2020 draft?

We don't have a second round for Downie at the moment because we traded it to Melbourne in the Frost trade.
 

Procrastinator35

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Who are you liking at pick 20?

Why can't we trade out Richmonds 2020 second round? Do we have to have at least hold onto one pick in the first two rounds of the 2020 draft?

We don't have a second round for Downie at the moment because we traded it to Melbourne in the Frost trade.
I don't want to say whom I have in mind, cause then it'll be all over AFL.Com by tomorrow morning....LOL.

Yes, we need to have at least 1 of a first or Second rounder for 2020.

The second rounder I spoke of, was the Tigers one we received in your scenario above.....I'd also be looking to secure a third rounder from the Gold Coast in return for our 2020 First for pick 20, which will more than likely end up at pick 23 or 24, after bids.
 

Watsclarkosmob

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I don't want to say whom I have in mind, cause then it'll be all over AFL.Com by tomorrow morning....LOL.

Yes, we need to have at least 1 of a first or Second rounder for 2020.

The second rounder I spoke of, was the Tigers one we received in your scenario above.....I'd also be looking to secure a third rounder from the Gold Coast in return for our 2020 First for pick 20, which will more than likely end up at pick 23 or 24, after bids.
Well unless we're just happy to hold onto Richmonds 2020 second round so we can trade out our first for pick 20 so be it. Gold Coast haven't got a third round this year or next year, so it's either pick 78 this year we get back or a future fifth round.

Damn all that planning for nothing...apart from a bit of fun.

So rehash possible players picked at 11, ~17, 20 and 64/65, and a future second round in.
 

Procrastinator35

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Well unless we're just happy to hold onto Richmonds 2020 second round so we can trade out our first for pick 20 so be it. Gold Coast haven't got a third round this year or next year, so it's either pick 78 this year we get back or a future fifth round.

Damn all that planning for nothing...apart from a bit of fun.

So rehash possible players picked at 11, ~17, 20 and 64/65, and a future second round in.
I shouldn't worry about it overly-much, as both Gold Cost & the Cats are looking to trade up, by using their picks 14 & 17 & 15 & 20 respectively.....So if we desire the extra pick a little later, then we can always take the risk on Maginness to do that....I.E Pick 11 for 15 & 20.....Similarly, the Giants are looking to snaffle Adelaide's pick 4 in order to capture an extra gun on top of Green, with the lure of their 2020 first on offer.....If that scenario should transpire, then Pick 11 becomes Pick 12.
 

Sidthehat

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What swaps could be done with Freo if Melbourne/Carlton bid on Henry before their (current) pick ten?
As Crows fans I'm wondering if GWS' 2020 1st (assuming get from dropping from 4 to 6) and second rounder would get 10. From my workings this would see Freo's current second rounder drop to end of the round with compo after picks.
 

TryAnHit

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The only guy I’d consider passing on ahead of Green is Rowell and that isn’t possible.

No doubt we have strength at inside mid but Cal is pushing 30 and coming off an ACL and we won’t be able to keep all the others as their values soar.

Green is a bit taller than the rest, has incredibly deft touch and the ability to get and deliver in close like few others and is home grown.

He is most likely best available at our pick and cannot be ignored for any of the other players mentioned.

He’s locked in.
What swaps could be done with Freo if Melbourne/Carlton bid on Henry before their (current) pick ten?
As Crows fans I'm wondering if GWS' 2020 1st (assuming get from dropping from 4 to 6) and second rounder would get 10. From my workings this would see Freo's current second rounder drop to end of the round with compo after picks.
Would assume suns come with a better offer
 

juss

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Tigers have 3 picks roughly 38,39,41 that add to just over 1300 points or pick 11/12 in the draft equivalent. Even two of them add to about pick 20 equivalent. This could be valuable for some F/S or Academy picks so would there be any deals going around where a team would trade down to get these equivalent points? Would love another top 20 pick.
 

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