Prediction Possible pick swaps

Procrastinator35

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Tigers have 3 picks roughly 38,39,41 that add to just over 1300 points or pick 11/12 in the draft equivalent. Even two of them add to about pick 20 equivalent. This could be valuable for some F/S or Academy picks so would there be any deals going around where a team would trade down to get these equivalent points? Would love another top 20 pick.
It's rough in that those 3 picks lie just outside the really good pool of talent…..And with A mooted 3-4 bids being matched before-hand, then those picks could blow out to 42, 43 & 45 respectively.....A major hit to the points tally.....I'd be looking to trade-up by offering them to those clubs with F/S & Academy players....A fair few clubs would be eyeing-off the Coasters Pick 20 I reckon.
 

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TheTassieHawk

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Tigers have 3 picks roughly 38,39,41 that add to just over 1300 points or pick 11/12 in the draft equivalent. Even two of them add to about pick 20 equivalent. This could be valuable for some F/S or Academy picks so would there be any deals going around where a team would trade down to get these equivalent points? Would love another top 20 pick.
As it stands the 3 clubs likely to be matching bids could all see some potential in those picks.

Freo could have to use pick 22 to match a post pick 10 bid for Henry. This would probably need all 3 picks in a package with something else back to the Tiges to balance up.

Port could have to use pick 29 to match a post pick 18 bid for Mead. Again I would expect any 2 combo of picks 38/39/41 to have something else back to the Tiges to balance up.

Similarly for the Hawks pick 30 to match a post pick 11 bid for Maginnis.

I expect that once the Green and Henry bids trigger the first batches of live trades there could be other options present themselves with several picks inside the top 30 having the potential to be changing hands.

No doubt the Tiges would have thought through a bunch of scenarios if they see value in trading up or want to be able to move quickly on someone who unexpectedly slides on night 2 of the draft.
 

Crow_68

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Adelaide and Freo could do the following.

If Melbourne don’t pick up Freo’s player of choice at 3:

Adelaide pick 4 & 37 for Freo’s pick 7 & 22

If the bid for Henry then comes in at 8 or 9:

Adelaide pick 23 & 28 for Freo’s pick 10

Essentially 4, 23, 28 & 37 for 7, 10 & 22.




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Clems Knee

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Adelaide and Freo could do the following.

If Melbourne don’t pick up Freo’s player of choice at 3:

Adelaide pick 4 & 37 for Freo’s pick 7 & 22

If the bid for Henry then comes in at 8 or 9:

Adelaide pick 23 & 28 for Freo’s pick 10

Essentially 4, 23, 28 & 37 for 7, 10 & 22.




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If Fremantle really wanted someone at 4, they could do your first trade. But the first picks are so even, and the trade doesn’t help for a later bid on Henry, if it came after 10.

The second trade would be terrible. The bid on Henry would eat through picks 23 and 28 leaving pick 52 if the bid was at 8 or pick 47 if the bid was at 9.
 

WilloTree

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Adelaide and Freo could do the following.

If Melbourne don’t pick up Freo’s player of choice at 3:

Adelaide pick 4 & 37 for Freo’s pick 7 & 22

If the bid for Henry then comes in at 8 or 9:

Adelaide pick 23 & 28 for Freo’s pick 10

Essentially 4, 23, 28 & 37 for 7, 10 & 22.




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Why not just pick at 7?, then grab Crows 23 and 28 for 10.

No need to throw pick 7 to the wind.
 

THE_GUN

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What swaps could be done with Freo if Melbourne/Carlton bid on Henry before their (current) pick ten?
As Crows fans I'm wondering if GWS' 2020 1st (assuming get from dropping from 4 to 6) and second rounder would get 10. From my workings this would see Freo's current second rounder drop to end of the round with compo after picks.
From a Richmond supporters view to facilitate with assets Richmond has

Richmond out : #38+#39+#41+ 2020 1st rounder =2348 points
Fremantle out : #22 + #10 = 2240 points

When Henry bid/draft complete

Richmond out: #19 = 948 points
Richmond In: #58 + fremantle 2020 2nd rounder (#26) =899 points approx
 

old55

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The only guy I’d consider passing on ahead of Green is Rowell and that isn’t possible.

No doubt we have strength at inside mid but Cal is pushing 30 and coming off an ACL and we won’t be able to keep all the others as their values soar.

Green is a bit taller than the rest, has incredibly deft touch and the ability to get and deliver in close like few others and is home grown.

He is most likely best available at our pick and cannot be ignored for any of the other players mentioned.

He’s locked in.
Pretty sure MFC bid on Green at 3.

If GWS down trade for 2 x 2019 picks all the value will go on the match. Their best strategy is to trade 6 for a pick in the teens and a future first. That way only the teens pick and later picks get swallowed by the match for Green, the future 1st is quarantined.

Possible clubs are Geelong, Port and GC ( 2020 mid 1st round compo)
 

WilloTree

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From a Richmond supporters view to facilitate with assets Richmond has

Richmond out : #38+#39+#41+ 2020 1st rounder =2348 points
Fremantle out : #22 + #10 = 2240 points

When Henry bid/draft complete

Richmond out: #19 = 948 points
Richmond In: #58 + fremantle 2020 2nd rounder (#26) =899 points approx
So, basically - Pick 10 and 22 for Pick 18 and a Coles voucher.

Point me in the direction if the nearest microwave.
 

Clems Knee

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From a Richmond supporters view to facilitate with assets Richmond has

Richmond out : #38+#39+#41+ 2020 1st rounder =2348 points
Fremantle out : #22 + #10 = 2240 points

When Henry bid/draft complete

Richmond out: #19 = 948 points
Richmond In: #58 + fremantle 2020 2nd rounder (#26) =899 points approx
This is the trade swap that the AFL is stopping. You can’t have two clubs doing multiple trades with eachother in order to hide points from a bid match. At least that’s how I read the article.
 

sydney_gws

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From a Richmond supporters view to facilitate with assets Richmond has

Richmond out : #38+#39+#41+ 2020 1st rounder =2348 points
Fremantle out : #22 + #10 = 2240 points

When Henry bid/draft complete

Richmond out: #19 = 948 points
Richmond In: #58 + fremantle 2020 2nd rounder (#26) =899 points approx
I could see gws-Richmond also trading, maybe harder given we were in the grand final together.
 

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Orange Agent

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The issue with 3 picks for 1 pick deals with academy clubs is the available list spots per how many draft picks you can use. The Vic clubs like Collingwood should of never have whinged about this. Trading a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders for a 1st was an absolute steal for the clubs smart enough to catch onto it.
 

Peel67skin

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From a Richmond supporters view to facilitate with assets Richmond has

Richmond out : #38+#39+#41+ 2020 1st rounder =2348 points
Fremantle out : #22 + #10 = 2240 points

When Henry bid/draft complete

Richmond out: #19 = 948 points
Richmond In: #58 + fremantle 2020 2nd rounder (#26) =899 points approx
I thought VIC club or Eddie complain to AFL that GWS are not allow to do this a few year ago and AFL change rules because of that.
 

Crow till I die

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why don't GC try to get pick 3 from melbourne. Maybe 15, 20 + 2020 pick 11 and maybe a further pick. It is a lot to pay but thinking on it, they would then have picks 1, 2 & 3 and could then bid pick 1 for Tom Green and GWS would not have the capital to match a bid, then with picks 2 & 3 get Rowell and Anderson. Those 3 guys basically become THE midfield to build the team around
 

GatesOfHell

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why don't GC try to get pick 3 from melbourne. Maybe 15, 20 + 2020 pick 11 and maybe a further pick. It is a lot to pay but thinking on it, they would then have picks 1, 2 & 3 and could then bid pick 1 for Tom Green and GWS would not have the capital to match a bid, then with picks 2 & 3 get Rowell and Anderson. Those 3 guys basically become THE midfield to build the team around
Some nice left field thinking there.
 

Crow till I die

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Some nice left field thinking there.
It would set them up nicely. I'll state that if GC came to the crows with a mammoth offer for pick 4 akin to the one above, I'd do it but pick 4 won't get them into the position where they could bid very high for Green and not risk not getting a rowell or Anderson - that is why Melbourne are really the only team that GC could make a play like that if they were so inclined
 

Two Planks

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why don't GC try to get pick 3 from melbourne. Maybe 15, 20 + 2020 pick 11 and maybe a further pick. It is a lot to pay but thinking on it, they would then have picks 1, 2 & 3 and could then bid pick 1 for Tom Green and GWS would not have the capital to match a bid, then with picks 2 & 3 get Rowell and Anderson. Those 3 guys basically become THE midfield to build the team around
I mentioned this exact scenario 2 weeks ago and got howled down.
 

Crow till I die

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I mentioned this exact scenario 2 weeks ago and got howled down.
I hadn't seen it..but I put on record that I am not howling it down :D

But not trying to be smart, GC could if they wanted, make a big play for that melbourne pick and Melbourne could do very well from it pick wise and both clubs could end up doing very well in terms of GC getting the 3 best players in this draft and melbourne loading up on picks to bring in plenty of 1st round talent
 

Two Planks

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I hadn't seen it..but I put on record that I am not howling it down :D

But not trying to be smart, GC could if they wanted, make a big play for that melbourne pick and Melbourne could do very well from it pick wise and both clubs could end up doing very well in terms of GC getting the 3 best players in this draft and melbourne loading up on picks to bring in plenty of 1st round talent
To me it would suit both clubs very well.
 

TryAnHit

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why don't GC try to get pick 3 from melbourne. Maybe 15, 20 + 2020 pick 11 and maybe a further pick. It is a lot to pay but thinking on it, they would then have picks 1, 2 & 3 and could then bid pick 1 for Tom Green and GWS would not have the capital to match a bid, then with picks 2 & 3 get Rowell and Anderson. Those 3 guys basically become THE midfield to build the team around
Could also offer 2020 first.
Assume will be pick 1 again
 

Ross

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GWS has enough points to match any bid on Green with their current picks. A bid at pick one would require 2,400 points to match and GWS has 6 (1,751), 40 (429), 59 (158) and 60 (146) for 2,484 points. They'd use 6, 40, 59 and 60 and get Green and pick 68 in return. In comparison, a bid from Sydney at five would cost them 6 and they'd get Green and pick 52 in return. All they're really losing out on in the first scenario is pick 40, the other picks are basically nothing picks. And this is assuming they don't do any trades for more points before matching.

Point is, Gold Coast probably aren't getting Green even if they do all of this.
 

Peel67skin

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why don't GC try to get pick 3 from melbourne. Maybe 15, 20 + 2020 pick 11 and maybe a further pick. It is a lot to pay but thinking on it, they would then have picks 1, 2 & 3 and could then bid pick 1 for Tom Green and GWS would not have the capital to match a bid, then with picks 2 & 3 get Rowell and Anderson. Those 3 guys basically become THE midfield to build the team around
I don't know why? GCS recruiters just don't listen to your suggestion. Maybe they watch less U18 games than you.
 

Clems Knee

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GWS has enough points to match any bid on Green with their current picks. A bid at pick one would require 2,400 points to match and GWS has 6 (1,751), 40 (429), 59 (158) and 60 (146) for 2,484 points. They'd use 6, 40, 59 and 60 and get Green and pick 68 in return. In comparison, a bid from Sydney at five would cost them 6 and they'd get Green and pick 52 in return. All they're really losing out on in the first scenario is pick 40, the other picks are basically nothing picks. And this is assuming they don't do any trades for more points before matching.

Point is, Gold Coast probably aren't getting Green even if they do all of this.
Not only that, Green would forever more be known as the number 1 draft pick and the two Suns players would be the second choices rather than the great hopes.

Btw, I think GWS wouldn’t get pick 52 in return if Sydney bid at 5. That becomes surplus points for GWS in this and future drafts.
 

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