Prediction Possible pick swaps

[Crow till I die]

GWS has enough points to match any bid on Green with their current picks. A bid at pick one would require 2,400 points to match and GWS has 6 (1,751), 40 (429), 59 (158) and 60 (146) for 2,484 points. They'd use 6, 40, 59 and 60 and get Green and pick 68 in return. In comparison, a bid from Sydney at five would cost them 6 and they'd get Green and pick 52 in return. All they're really losing out on in the first scenario is pick 40, the other picks are basically nothing picks. And this is assuming they don't do any trades for more points before matching.

Point is, Gold Coast probably aren't getting Green even if they do all of this.

Ahh. Forgot the discount when i looked at the points. Was just trying to think laterally how a team like GC could engineer the 3 best mids in one hit whilst allowing melbourne a big draft bounty

 

[Marc_Remillard]

I mentioned this exact scenario 2 weeks ago and got howled down.

Because Melbourne won't do it, they want elite talent from this draft, not the dregs from a compromised draft

 

[Ross]

Not only that, Green would forever more be known as the number 1 draft pick and the two Suns players would be the second choices rather than the great hopes.

Btw, I think GWS wouldn’t get pick 52 in return if Sydney bid at 5. That becomes surplus points for GWS in this and future drafts.

As far as I was aware leftover points from a matched bid are returned as later draft picks in the same year. GWS would use 6 to match and would then have 249 points leftover (1751 - (1878 * 0.8)), 249 points falls between pick 51 (259) and 52 (246). I could be wrong though?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Port working towards getting Pick 7 or 8.

 

[Clems Knee]

As far as I was aware leftover points from a matched bid are returned as later draft picks in the same year. GWS would use 6 to match and would then have 249 points leftover (1751 - (1878 * 0.8)), 249 points falls between pick 51 (259) and 52 (246). I could be wrong though?

Not for the first pick after a first round bid is made. It’s true for all bids in the second round onwards.

Once the player has been “paid” for by the forfeiting of a single selection or multiple selections, there may be a surplus of points. With the exception of the circumstance set out below, those surplus points are converted to another selection in the current National Draft using the DVI.

The exception to the above point is where a player is bid for at pick 18 or earlier and the Club’s next available selection is worth more points than the value that must be paid to acquire the player. In this case, the surplus points are not converted to a selection in the current National Draft, but are retained and used to offset any deficit arising at the conclusion of this National Draft or future National Drafts.

Taken from Lore ’s outstanding resource in the D&T stickies.

 

[Two Planks]

Port working towards getting Pick 7 or 8.

Any idea of the target

 

[nurries]

Any idea of the target

Stephens? Freo also interested

12 and 18 for 7?

Freo end up with 10,12,18,22 and get the WA kids they want
Port with 7,29 and get their man

 

[THE_GUN]

Port working towards getting Pick 7 or 8.

Dylan Stephens ?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Any idea of the target

Dylan Stephens ?

Not sure - I’m guessing they are anticipating a slider in that region?

 

[Ross]

Not for the first pick after a first round bid is made. It’s true for all bids in the second round onwards.

Once the player has been “paid” for by the forfeiting of a single selection or multiple selections, there may be a surplus of points. With the exception of the circumstance set out below, those surplus points are converted to another selection in the current National Draft using the DVI.

The exception to the above point is where a player is bid for at pick 18 or earlier and the Club’s next available selection is worth more points than the value that must be paid to acquire the player. In this case, the surplus points are not converted to a selection in the current National Draft, but are retained and used to offset any deficit arising at the conclusion of this National Draft or future National Drafts.

Taken from Lore ’s outstanding resource in the D&T stickies.

Thanks for that. So it reads like they'd still be retaining points if they traded 6 for 14 and 17 from Geelong or 12 and 18 from Port but they'd just end up with more points? And that there's no expiry date on the retained points.

 

[GatesOfHell]

Not sure - I’m guessing they are anticipating a slider in that region?

I’m hoping the Dees deal out pick 8 to them for 12&18. Would be quite okay with that.

 

[THE_GUN]

Not sure - I’m guessing they are anticipating a slider in that region?

Looking like both Port & Geelong are wanting to trade down

 

[Two Planks]

Looking like both Port & Geelong are wanting to trade down

And Gold Coast

 

[philthy05]

Can’t see port giving up 12 and 18 for pick 7 after what we’ve given up to get those picks

imagine it’s more like 12 and 29

 

[TryAnHit]

Can’t see port giving up 12 and 18 for pick 7 after what we’ve given up to get those picks

imagine it’s more like 12 and 29

29 not enough for a 5 spot upgrade

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Can’t see port giving up 12 and 18 for pick 7 after what we’ve given up to get those picks

imagine it’s more like 12 and 29

Can see GWS's pick 6 being in play too, especially if it's likely to be useless with the Green bid more than likely going to be before then.

 

[afl2004]

Can’t see port giving up 12 and 18 for pick 7 after what we’ve given up to get those picks

imagine it’s more like 12 and 29

Plus a future 2nd knowing us

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If Port were to do it they’d have a specific player in mind and would wait for Draft Day to do a Live trade

 

[Revan11]

Not sure - I’m guessing they are anticipating a slider in that region?

Serong? Or Flanders?

29 not enough for a 5 spot upgrade

29 would help Freo with the Henry bid. 22+29 = 1498 points, and if a bid comes at 8 for Henry all they need is 1241 points.

 

[Lach72]

10 for 12 and 29? Maybe. I’d spew if we gave up 7. Want Stephens myself

 

[Lach72]

I’d rather say no and hope Henry gets past 10, then offer Geelong or Gold Coast our 2020 first for something tasty

 

[Revan11]

10 for 12 and 29? Maybe. I’d spew if we gave up 7. Want Stephens myself

Yes but if you match a Henry bid at 8 or 9, then thAts 3 top 12 picks! 8, 10 and 12.

 

[WWSD]

Brisbane trade ya’ll pick 11 and 30 for picks 16 and 21.

 

[Mego Red]

Why not just pick at 7?, then grab Crows 23 and 28 for 10.

No need to throw pick 7 to the wind.

Gives Freo the chance to get Jackson at 4, which is starting to seem unlikely at 7.

 

[Mego Red]

Can’t see port giving up 12 and 18 for pick 7 after what we’ve given up to get those picks

imagine it’s more like 12 and 29

No way anyone is giving you pick 7 or 8 for just 12 and 29.

Remember, 12 and 18 is what it already cost to get pick 6.