Prediction Possible pick swaps

replicant

Premiership Player
Jul 27, 2011
4,109
8,618
New Plymouth, NZ
AFL Club
Sydney
I'd like to see Sydney offer 5 + 32 + 2020 1st for Melbourne's 3 and 10.

5 (1878) + 32 (584) = 2462.
3 (2234) + 10 (1395) = 3629

That leaves a 1167 points deficit to be paid for by our 2020 1st. 1167 is about pick 14. In other words, as long as Sydney finish outside the top 4, Dees would end up ahead. If we finish bottom 4 like this year, Dees make out like bandits.

If we got those picks, I'd like to see us bid on Green, force GWS to match, and then take Flanders at 4 and Robertson(/Serong/Stephens) at 10. Would solve our midfield issues. We could get Green if GWS didn't match, but i'd see that as unlikely. But if we don't, we have 5 (will probably still get Flanders) and then 25, where who knows what we get? The only way to get two good mids is to trade up. The good thing is if the Dees want Young/Jackson, i can't see us going after either. They're just not what we need right now, so Dees would still get one player they want at 5.

Giving up next years first is ok, as we have Campbell and Gulden coming through, so we have priority on two good talents. Would rather get an extra year into Flanders/Robertson than wait for a first rounder next year.
 

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Sidthehat

Team Captain
Oct 7, 2017
463
567
London
AFL Club
Adelaide
If Melbourne bid on Green how feasible is it GWS trade with Geelong or Port for a couple of teen picks? Would end up giving them a second rounder rather than a third from extra points after 4th pick minus 80% of 3.
 

TheTassieHawk

Draftee
Oct 12, 2019
14
8
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If Melbourne bid on Green how feasible is it GWS trade with Geelong or Port for a couple of teen picks? Would end up giving them a second rounder rather than a third from extra points after 4th pick minus 80% of 3.
I think any time a team has to be matching an early bid they would be planning to trade down/split their next pick for points to maximise their remaining hand of picks or reduce their DVI deficit.

Therefore if Green is picked at 3 GWS then pulls the lever on the best available trade offered in the draft leadup whether that be Geelong, Port or another team.

Similarly for Fremantle if Henry is picked at 6 or 7 (assuming Green has already been matched this is Sydney's current pick 5 or Adelaide's current pick 6 which fall before the Dockers current picks 7 and 8).
 

TheTassieHawk

Draftee
Oct 12, 2019
14
8
AFL Club
Hawthorn
2pm today is the deadline for 2019 pre-draft pick exchanges. A few teams may be looking to move later picks for futures or packaging later picks to move up this year if there is still a restriction on the number of picks that can be taken into the draft.
 

Two Planks

Norm Smith Medallist
May 14, 2012
6,223
8,342
AFL Club
Geelong
Melbourne won't bid on Green. As soon as the Giants traded with the crows, it was obvious that they knew the demons intentions.
 

Northernsoul74

Premiership Player
Jun 19, 2016
3,379
3,531
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne won't bid on Green. As soon as the Giants traded with the crows, it was obvious that they knew the demons intentions.
That’s interesting. We know it happens but if that’s the case and Melbourne have given them a definite indication they won’t bid I feel we are getting dangerously close to draft tampering. The unlimited amount of shuffling around of picks is already making the draft order a bit of a joke.
This isn’t a dig at Melbourne or GWS just a general observation around the integrity of the draft.
 

Two Planks

Norm Smith Medallist
May 14, 2012
6,223
8,342
AFL Club
Geelong
That’s interesting. We know it happens but if that’s the case and Melbourne have given them a definite indication they won’t bid I feel we are getting dangerously close to draft tampering. The unlimited amount of shuffling around of picks is already making the draft order a bit of a joke.
This isn’t a dig at Melbourne or GWS just a general observation around the integrity of the draft.
You shouldn't be able to match a bid with more than 2 selections. Also the selections used to match, at least 1 should come from the next round of the draft.
 

threesixpio

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 28, 2013
25,539
34,338
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Hawthorn want to marry this draft clearly - which is rare for this club (of late). Perhaps they feel confident they have a core of young leaders now

Would be interested to see what we get for a future first

I doubt we will try and package 11 and another late first for an earlier pick. I suspect Hawks would like a bunch of kids and rate all players likely to go in the first round
 

DanA

Norm Smith Medallist
May 15, 2006
8,472
4,387
Richmond
AFL Club
Geelong
You shouldn't be able to match a bid with more than 2 selections. Also the selections used to match, at least 1 should come from the next round of the draft.
I don't think you should be able to match in the first round unless you have a pick worth more than 1/2 the value. So if you are expecting a bid at pick 1 you need to have a top 8 pick to match, if you are expecting a bid at pick 5 then you have to match at pick 19 or better. If you don't you lose the 20% discount when choosing to match.
 

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anotherletdown

All Australian
Oct 14, 2016
906
838
AFL Club
Sydney
We are coming for pick 8 9 or 10 it just depends who wants to deal and for what price.
If Young, Green and Jackson are off the table you should be aiming for our pick. I think it’ll be gettable.

Actually, if we bid on Green and they match can we still trade our pick? Seems like double dipping with the pick, not sure that’s allowable.
 

DanA

Norm Smith Medallist
May 15, 2006
8,472
4,387
Richmond
AFL Club
Geelong
If Young, Green and Jackson are off the table you should be aiming for our pick. I think it’ll be gettable.

Actually, if we bid on Green and they match can we still trade our pick? Seems like double dipping with the pick, not sure that’s allowable.
I'd happily trade for 5 but it could be a little too expensive for Geelong list managers. I would expect Sydney wanting picks 14 + 17 as a minimum whereas I think 14 and 24 might get us a pick between 8-10.
 

anotherletdown

All Australian
Oct 14, 2016
906
838
AFL Club
Sydney
I'd happily trade for 5 but it could be a little too expensive for Geelong list managers. I would expect Sydney wanting picks 14 + 17 as a minimum whereas I think 14 and 24 might get us a pick between 8-10.
After bids it probably looks like 6 for 16+19, think we’d push for a pick upgrade in the 2nd too... So all up, 6+28 for 16+19+27

We could also then dump out 3rd for a future which also suits us.

Certainly sounds like something to be done on the night.... it’s all a bit complicated.
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,229
23,483
AFL Club
West Coast
Melbourne and sydney should swap 3 for 5 (and late picks).

Sydney then agree to not pick the player that Melbourne want.

Dees get the same player. Swans get the 4th non-academy player instead of the fifth. GWS are forced to match for green.
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,229
23,483
AFL Club
West Coast
How do 2 for 1 trades work on draft night?

Does the team who gets the two picks have their last selection just disappear (as they can have more picks than list spots available)?
 

Gunf

Premiership Player
Mar 11, 2019
3,313
4,666
AFL Club
Geelong
How do 2 for 1 trades work on draft night?

Does the team who gets the two picks have their last selection just disappear (as they can have more picks than list spots available)?
Unless it has changed you can't go into draft night with more picks then spots available e.g Geelong 4 spots and has 14/17/24/36/93 so 93 isn't a factor(not that it would be normally)

Its the reason we did a pick swap for Jenkins instead of 93 for him as we would of lost 37 if we didn't swap it somehow
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
22,229
23,483
AFL Club
West Coast
Unless it has changed you can't go into draft night with more picks then spots available e.g Geelong 4 spots and has 14/17/24/36/93 so 93 isn't a factor(not that it would be normally)

Its the reason we did a pick swap for Jenkins instead of 93 for him as we would of lost 37 if we didn't swap it somehow
I meant if a team goes in with 5 picks and spots, then trades,say pick 10 for 18 and 20, they have more picks than spots. Does their lowest pick then just disappear?
 

THE_GUN

Keep trying ...... SON
Dec 28, 2007
26,492
46,617
3121
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Richmond 2019 Premiers
Would GC do Pick 20 + Future 3rd for Hawks Future 1st?
Dont think so as GC dont need any future picks as they will have their 1st which will be top 3/4 and also pick #11
GC are looking to upgrade their picks this year to get into the top 7/8 imo
 

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