Prediction Possible pick swaps

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Lore

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Dec 14, 2015
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whats the point of closing the pick trading window till the draft?
Finalise the draft order, remove any picks that can’t be used because the clubs don’t have enough list spots. AFL House doesn’t seem to work on weekends so Friday cut off means it can be sorted it out tonight and give clubs a couple of days to finalise their draft strategy based on the finalised draft order before the draft on Wednesday.
 

Scrads

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May 31, 2009
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Gold Coast's number 1 priority will be to try and bundle 15 and 20 to get into this years top 10. Doubt they are looking for more picks next year.
Dont think so as GC dont need any future picks as they will have their 1st which will be top 3/4 and also pick #11
GC are looking to upgrade their picks this year to get into the top 7/8 imo
I don’t think they would swap 20 for your future first straight up.
Fair points, perhaps they'd only consider it if they are unsuccessful at trading up (i.e. live at that pick)

Keep in mind their Pick 20 will be at least Pick 22 and maybe Pick 23 if Finn Maginness is also bid on before it. They could do it in the hope that it will turn into a Top 10 pick next year and absolute worst case would be breaking even after bids etc. Or they could look to bundle our first + Pick 11 to get higher next year, so if it doesn't work this year they can try the same thing next year with effectively the same pick from this year.
 

TryAnHit

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Fair points, perhaps they'd only consider it if they are unsuccessful at trading up (i.e. live at that pick)

Keep in mind their Pick 20 will be at least Pick 22 and maybe Pick 23 if Finn Maginness is also bid on before it. They could do it in the hope that it will turn into a Top 10 pick next year and absolute worst case would be breaking even after bids etc. Or they could look to bundle our first + Pick 11 to get higher next year, so if it doesn't work this year they can try the same thing next year with effectively the same pick from this year.
What does it matter if its 20 or 22
Its the 20th best non accademy / father son pick

Those NGA and father son are never a chance so no point saying it will be 22 when they could never take those players anyway
 

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TheTassieHawk

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Oct 12, 2019
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I meant if a team goes in with 5 picks and spots, then trades,say pick 10 for 18 and 20, they have more picks than spots. Does their lowest pick then just disappear?
In theory it does. I would expect that the 2 teams would actually agree to trade 2 picks for 2 picks - ie 10 and 73 (lowest pick) for 18 and 20 - instead of 2 for 1. That way instead of disappearing the pick 73 goes to the team who otherwise would have ended up a pick short of their starting number of picks.
 

Wayne Swan

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So we now wait for the AFL to get back to work on Monday so they can see how many list vacancies each team has and allocate them their picks. A whole heap of those late picks will disappear.

We'll have a much better idea of possible late draft shenanigans as teams like GWS try to work out how to redraft good young players they delisted with a promise to redraft. For sure some other teams pounce and grab some of these players before GWS very late picks.
 

Scrads

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What does it matter if its 20 or 22
Its the 20th best non accademy / father son pick

Those NGA and father son are never a chance so no point saying it will be 22 when they could never take those players anyway
I know exactly what you're saying, but it's not a 'true' Pick 20 if there's players in your top 20 that you can't access. Also those players ARE some chance - an extreme example is if GC for some reason wanted Liam Henry, they'd bid for him at Pick 1 and presumably get him. Examples include Irving Mosquito and Matt Walker last year - both players had teams decline to match a bid on them. They only aren't available from the point where the team with access are willing to match. Of course, in most cases you can have an educated guess on roughly where that would be.

Regardless, the same logic applies to the 2020 first as well which at absolute worst-case scenario for them (Hawks flag, anyone?) would be Pick 19 (which may drift, but as you said any NGA or F/S bids beforehand they wouldn't have access to anyway) which only Band-1 compo free agents could push out further than the pick GC are giving up. Obviously the supposed 'strength' of each draft becomes a factor - is Pick 20 this year more likely to be better than a Pick 6-15 next year? (very rough estimate on Hawk's finishing position) That's for their recruiting team to deliberate.

I just think they'd look at the deal and think they'd be risking a potential slight loss for a potential significant gain.
 

Peel67skin

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I know exactly what you're saying, but it's not a 'true' Pick 20 if there's players in your top 20 that you can't access. Also those players ARE some chance - an extreme example is if GC for some reason wanted Liam Henry, they'd bid for him at Pick 1 and presumably get him. Examples include Irving Mosquito and Matt Walker last year - both players had teams decline to match a bid on them. They only aren't available from the point where the team with access are willing to match. Of course, in most cases you can have an educated guess on roughly where that would be.

Regardless, the same logic applies to the 2020 first as well which at absolute worst-case scenario for them (Hawks flag, anyone?) would be Pick 19 (which may drift, but as you said any NGA or F/S bids beforehand they wouldn't have access to anyway) which only Band-1 compo free agents could push out further than the pick GC are giving up. Obviously the supposed 'strength' of each draft becomes a factor - is Pick 20 this year more likely to be better than a Pick 6-15 next year? (very rough estimate on Hawk's finishing position) That's for their recruiting team to deliberate.

I just think they'd look at the deal and think they'd be risking a potential slight loss for a potential significant gain.
Much depend on GCS list MANAGER.
 

THE_GUN

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On the first night of the draft I’d like to trade Brisbane’s pick 34 and 2020 future first round pick to Fremantle for pick 58 and their 2020 first round pick.
Pretty good deal for both club.
How is that a good deal ???

2020 expected finishing spots IMO
fremantle 12-16 pick range #3 - #7
Brisbane 3-7 pick range #13 - #17 (remembering GC have pick 11)

Brisbane Out :#13/#17 +#34
Brisbane In: #3/#7 +#58

Fremantle Out: #3/#7 +#58
fremantle In :#13/#17 +#34
 

briztoon

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How is that a good deal ???

2020 expected finishing spots IMO
fremantle 12-16 pick range #3 - #7
Brisbane 3-7 pick range #13 - #17 (remembering GC have pick 11)

Brisbane Out :#13/#17 +#34
Brisbane In: #3/#7 +#58

Fremantle Out: #3/#7 +#58
fremantle In :#13/#17 +#34
Ok, without the deal, where does Fremantle’s pick slide back to if they incur the maximum possible deficit of 590 points on their 2020 first round pick pick.

What other benefit does trade offer Fremantle and else does the trade enable Fremantle do?
 

Pure_Ownage

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Nov 26, 2008
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Ok, without the deal, where does Fremantle’s pick slide back to if they incur the maximum possible deficit of 590 points on their 2020 first round pick pick.

What other benefit does trade offer Fremantle and else does the trade enable Fremantle do?
They will trade a future R2 a R2/3 this year.
 

Tails1

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Is there any other teams?
So am I right in saying the league will allow a team to do a pick swap to match a bid on a player tied to them?

ie: if a player gets bid on at 22 and the clubs next pick is 26 can they trade out 26 (after the bid has been placed) for 2 later picks of enough value to still land that player (and then maybe get some residual value at the end of the draft?

I’m hoping the Pies might try and package 35 and 48 together (equivalent pick 23) to get into the 20s. This would only work if we could do the above.


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Suma Magic

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Aug 22, 2009
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So am I right in saying the league will allow a team to do a pick swap to match a bid on a player tied to them?

ie: if a player gets bid on at 22 and the clubs next pick is 26 can they trade out 26 (after the bid has been placed) for 2 later picks of enough value to still land that player (and then maybe get some residual value at the end of the draft?

I’m hoping the Pies might try and package 35 and 48 together (equivalent pick 23) to get into the 20s. This would only work if we could do the above.


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It’s possible.

But I don’t think there are any teams with picks in the 20s that will be matching bids?
 

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