Autopsy Post 2021 Grand Final Western Bulldogs game review, the good the bad and the ugly, come talk about it here!

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hutchy31

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May 25, 2014
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I'm not sure I'll ever be able to watch that game again, so kudos to those of you who can compartmentalise so well. I've had a big week at work and my kids are on school holidays so it's been fairly hectic, which has helped, but in the late evenings when my mind drifts off I can't help but think about the midpoint of the third quarter and how I felt then compared to 10-15 mins later.

I'm fine, but from a footy sense I'm still a little drained emotionally. I've never really liked the long gap between the end of the season and the start of the next one, but I'm actually fine with it this time around.
 

ExRoyboy

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I'm not sure I'll ever be able to watch that game again, so kudos to those of you who can compartmentalise so well. I've had a big week at work and my kids are on school holidays so it's been fairly hectic, which has helped, but in the late evenings when my mind drifts off I can't help but think about the midpoint of the third quarter and how I felt then compared to 10-15 mins later.

I'm fine, but from a footy sense I'm still a little drained emotionally. I've never really liked the long gap between the end of the season and the start of the next one, but I'm actually fine with it this time around.
I didn’t think I would be able to watch it again either and I can’t go much beyond 3 quarter time, but I wanted to listen to some of the other commentaries and see what they were thinking in some of those critical moments. Particularly because I can’t stand the Channel 7 commentators like BT and Brayshaw and the crap they spew out so I wanted to hear some more balanced commentary.

In general most thought the same as us, that Melbourne were in trouble if they didn’t arrest the momentum when they did. Plus I wanted to look for some of the things that we did that changed it, and also to confirm what I thought at the time which was that in general, other than for small periods, the game was not played on our terms or very cleanly even though we were 19 points in front. Therefore I think we had a bit of false hope. Too many players were having down days, stupid fumbles, bad decisions etc…. But still with some individual brilliance and pressure over about a quarter and particularly in the first half of the third quarter we were staying on top and looking good.
The fact it all fell so quickly and we went to water like we did, well we saw that in the final 3 rounds of the season and unfortunately the problems were still there and Melbourne just exposed them again.
 

CarnTheScray

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Hopefully not Sydney. Franklin could hit 1000 goals in round 1. It should be all about us.

On the other hand, that matchup could set the record for the biggest H&A crowd involving a non-Victorian team...
Depends where it's played. No chance to beat the MCG record which was 72k for Richmond vs Brisbane in 2019. I don't think we hold the Marvel record either. Our highest is 42k vs Sydney but i think the Saints had one game at around 50k?
 

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The Slitherin' Snake

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I didn’t think I would be able to watch it again either and I can’t go much beyond 3 quarter time, but I wanted to listen to some of the other commentaries and see what they were thinking in some of those critical moments. Particularly because I can’t stand the Channel 7 commentators like BT and Brayshaw and the crap they spew out so I wanted to hear some more balanced commentary.

In general most thought the same as us, that Melbourne were in trouble if they didn’t arrest the momentum when they did. Plus I wanted to look for some of the things that we did that changed it, and also to confirm what I thought at the time which was that in general, other than for small periods, the game was not played on our terms or very cleanly even though we were 19 points in front. Therefore I think we had a bit of false hope. Too many players were having down days, stupid fumbles, bad decisions etc…. But still with some individual brilliance and pressure over about a quarter and particularly in the first half of the third quarter we were staying on top and looking good.
The fact it all fell so quickly and we went to water like we did, well we saw that in the final 3 rounds of the season and unfortunately the problems were still there and Melbourne just exposed them again.
Tend to agree with a lot of this. We had so many down players even when we were in front.
Lord Bontempelli and Treloar really papered over a lot of our shortcomings in the first 2.5 quarters.
 

ExRoyboy

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We are short 2 key pieces a competitive 1st Ruck and a lockdown KPD to release Keath. Big off season for Sam to fill the gaps
Agreed….. but two very hard gaps to fill. A decent ruckman has been on the wish list probably since Minson retired.

I still think our best chance of finding another KPD is within. I don’t see too many of those looking to switch clubs either and we seem to have a bevy of young developing key forwards for the first time in years at the Bulldogs, along with Josh Bruce as a veteran.

So I would look to persist with Schache down back. He has the height and I thought he looked okay down there when he played there later in the season. Too often in the past we have given up on players in other positions like Roughead and Jones without trying them down back only to see them blossom at other clubs in key defensive roles. Let’s see if we can solve that one from within and then in the ruck we need to develop Sweet more by playing him more or if Bevo doesn’t think he is up to it then see who else is available and make that a priority. Until we fix the ruck problem we aren’t getting that next premiership in my view.
 

Munnez

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Agreed….. but two very hard gaps to fill. A decent ruckman has been on the wish list probably since Minson retired.

I still think our best chance of finding another KPD is within. I don’t see too many of those looking to switch clubs either and we seem to have a bevy of young developing key forwards for the first time in years at the Bulldogs, along with Josh Bruce as a veteran.

So I would look to persist with Schache down back. He has the height and I thought he looked okay down there when he played there later in the season. Too often in the past we have given up on players in other positions like Roughead and Jones without trying them down back only to see them blossom at other clubs in key defensive roles. Let’s see if we can solve that one from within and then in the ruck we need to develop Sweet more by playing him more or if Bevo doesn’t think he is up to it then see who else is available and make that a priority. Until we fix the ruck problem we aren’t getting that next premiership in my view.
Agree would definitely persist with Schache down back could become our version of Lever. Hopefully Sweet puts in a massive off season and can come on. So first priority is getting on top of the Ruck situation. Hopefully Sam can pry something loose to help
 

Optimistic Dog

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Oct 11, 2014
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I've watched the full game 3 times now, the second time going back and forth on crucial plays in the 3rd and start of the 4th.
When the game was there to be won, only 1 side stepped up to win the game.

First, unlucky mistake was B Smith leaving the ball behind him. From then on their desire was stronger. In that 7 goal period, all our stars failed, Bont, Treloar, Daniel, English was weak when we needed a contest.
Start of the 4th we win the first centre bounce big wild handball by Bont into space. Who meets the ball the hardest Brayshaw or R. Smith? Brayshaw and down it goes first goal Brown, game over. Too much ball was delivered through Daniel, needed Dale and Williams to step up more.

They lifted, we didn't. We have plenty of time to break the run of 7 goals, we didn't. We just couldn't break the run on. The centre bounce set up was all wrong.

Nothing we can do about it, clearly the best side one, no matter how much we lead by in the 3rd.
You are gamer man than me Gungerden. i watched the second quarter and up to Bont's goal in the 3rd. My lasting memory was how good we were I guess that is someone acting in denial.
 

threenewpadlocks

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By that token any snap can be seen the same way. I don't see the point, seems silly
But I'm arguing that's not true for "any snap". That's the idea of sports predictions etc. Some elements of ability and skills are repeatable and independent of skill, some are elements of luck. The fact that Treloar didn't get a snap away that was free from any traffic is a skill.

Treloar having a snap in traffic that was near to, but not touched, by outstretched hands, has an element of luck by the fact it wasn't touched through.

If that same same snap from Treloar was not in traffic, because we demonstrated more skill and athleticism or application of tactics and strategy to get to that point, then I would say that's a reflection of the underlying ability.

That's the point I'm trying to make. If you lose by 70 points on a given day, I'm not sure there's enough things that you do in a football field that can be attributed to variance (such as whether a ball bounces funny on the deck) that can justify the result, as much as what can be attributed to underlying, repeatable ability (the fact that Melbourne demonstrated physical preparation and skill). So people saying "well if only we'd gone 25 points up" I think hardly makes a difference, because if you repeat the skill, controllable elements in 10,000 universes, I think Melbourne win in 9,900 of those, and the 100 that they lose in is ones where Christian Petracca pulls a hamstring, or some drunk guy runs onto the field and decides to tackle Gawn into the ground or whatever.

Using the 10,000 universes theory. Say a bit of (extra) luck bounces our way. The boundary throw in from the umpire, uncontrollable by our players, goes a bit differently, and Harmes doesn't get that kick away to Fritsch. It's a new universe. And in that universe: the same things that are constant (such as Melbourne demonstrate fitness in the 2nd half as much as they did in the universe we live in, Petracca still fundamentally has the same physical attributes and skill development), but some things vary according to uncertainty and luck (such as their accurate goalkicking from that point onward). Some of them are different probabilistically (for example, in 10,000 universes, 9,000 of them, Jackson never gets put into the ruck and Gawn rucks out the third quarter, and Jackson proved better to counter Martin etc.).

I just can't accept that then that tipping point was all luck, or even a large portion of it. That's just now how football works. If you were the bloke that considered every 70 point margin to be an insignificant reflection of who the better team was, then, you'd be the worst bloke at your work footy tipping.
 

Doggy

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But I'm arguing that's not true for "any snap". That's the idea of sports predictions etc. Some elements of ability and skills are repeatable and independent of skill, some are elements of luck. The fact that Treloar didn't get a snap away that was free from any traffic is a skill.

Treloar having a snap in traffic that was near to, but not touched, by outstretched hands, has an element of luck by the fact it wasn't touched through.

If that same same snap from Treloar was not in traffic, because we demonstrated more skill and athleticism or application of tactics and strategy to get to that point, then I would say that's a reflection of the underlying ability.

That's the point I'm trying to make. If you lose by 70 points on a given day, I'm not sure there's enough things that you do in a football field that can be attributed to variance (such as whether a ball bounces funny on the deck) that can justify the result, as much as what can be attributed to underlying, repeatable ability (the fact that Melbourne demonstrated physical preparation and skill). So people saying "well if only we'd gone 25 points up" I think hardly makes a difference, because if you repeat the skill, controllable elements in 10,000 universes, I think Melbourne win in 9,900 of those, and the 100 that they lose in is ones where Christian Petracca pulls a hamstring, or some drunk guy runs onto the field and decides to tackle Gawn into the ground or whatever.

Using the 10,000 universes theory. Say a bit of (extra) luck bounces our way. The boundary throw in from the umpire, uncontrollable by our players, goes a bit differently, and Harmes doesn't get that kick away to Fritsch. It's a new universe. And in that universe: the same things that are constant (such as Melbourne demonstrate fitness in the 2nd half as much as they did in the universe we live in, Petracca still fundamentally has the same physical attributes and skill development), but some things vary according to uncertainty and luck (such as their accurate goalkicking from that point onward). Some of them are different probabilistically (for example, in 10,000 universes, 9,000 of them, Jackson never gets put into the ruck and Gawn rucks out the third quarter, and Jackson proved better to counter Martin etc.).

I just can't accept that then that tipping point was all luck, or even a large portion of it. That's just now how football works. If you were the bloke that considered every 70 point margin to be an insignificant reflection of who the better team was, then, you'd be the worst bloke at your work footy tipping.
I have no idea what you are arguing. Melbourne were the better side, noone is debating that.

But it's also not debatable that we had a 19 point lead halfway through the third quarter, and all the momentum with Melbourne barely scoring for a quarter and a half.

It was there for the taking and a goal or two further might have made all the difference.

As you said, that can change everything. It doesn't necessarily follow that the game still goes the same way
 

threenewpadlocks

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I have no idea what you are arguing. Melbourne were the better side, noone is debating that.

But it's also not debatable that we had a 19 point lead halfway through the third quarter, and all the momentum with Melbourne barely scoring for a quarter and a half.

It was there for the taking and a goal or two further might have made all the difference.

As you said, that can change everything. It doesn't necessarily follow that the game still goes the same way
We agree Melbourne would have tried to win the game as much as they did if they were 19 or 25 points or any amount of points behind?

And in the act of scoring 100 points, they demonstrated a range of repeatable, underlying football ability skills and physical capabilities that would have occurred as a result of trying to win irrespective of what else was going on? Irrespective of the direction of how the central umpire bounced the ball, for example, that they still would have found ways to kick the goal from the centre bounce?

If you agree with that, then I don't see how there's any element of luck - stuff that wasn't underlying ability in how to play football - that can overcome literally 74 points difference in a quarter and a half. I would have said that it made no difference, because being 25 points up would not have made Melbourne any worse of a team that they demonstrated by being able to kick 14 goals to 1 from that point on.

Maybe slightly worse - they would not have made the tactical changes they did - but not to the point that it would have swung it by 8 or 9 goals from that point on.
 

Doggy

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We agree Melbourne would have tried to win the game as much as they did if they were 19 or 25 points or any amount of points behind?

And in the act of scoring 100 points, they demonstrated a range of repeatable, underlying football ability skills and physical capabilities that would have occurred as a result of trying to win irrespective of what else was going on? Irrespective of the direction of how the central umpire bounced the ball, for example, that they still would have found ways to kick the goal from the centre bounce?

If you agree with that, then I don't see how there's any element of luck - stuff that wasn't underlying ability in how to play football - that can overcome literally 74 points difference in a quarter and a half. I would have said that it made no difference, because being 25 points up would not have made Melbourne any worse of a team that they demonstrated by being able to kick 14 goals to 1 from that point on.

Maybe slightly worse - they would not have made the tactical changes they did - but not to the point that it would have swung it by 8 or 9 goals from that point on.
I'm saying that while they wouldn't have given up it could have also kicked us on .. which could have broken them.

It's far too simplistic to rule any of that out based on how Melbourne finished off the game.

You're completely ignoring that many people, including Melbourne themselves, said they were in a bit of trouble half way through the third quarter.
 

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threenewpadlocks

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I'm saying that while they wouldn't have given up it could have also kicked us on .. which could have broken them.
I think you have too much belief in the idea that a team would be mentally weaker just on the basis of being 25 points down in the 3rd quarter of a grand final, like their efforts to try would somehow be reduced on the reflection of a belief that they couldn't win. I don't really believe that - I think their efforts to try, and their belief in winning, are almost identical. And even if they weren't, maybe that's the case, but not to the extent that it can overcome the eventual 70 points - the difference in effort would have to be stark. It would have to be a 50+% drop off in performance, which naturally would have to have to have a 50% drop off in "brokenness". Which doesn't make any sense to me, because it suggests some sort of unique relationship between 19 and 25 points that didn't exist, for example, between 13 and 19 points. 19 points was already a pretty steep margin. I would argue that if they were going to lack belief, it would have occurred there, or it would only occur when they were 6+ goals down (ie where chances of win go below 5% on mathematical models, it's the type of win you only get once every two years as an average team).

It's far too simplistic to rule any of that out based on how Melbourne finished off the game.

You're completely ignoring that many people, including Melbourne themselves, said they were in a bit of trouble half way through the third quarter.
Because it wasn't clear at the time that Melbourne would demonstrate either successful tactical moves or overall increase in fitness at that point in time onward. There was no way of knowing it with the information at the time. Without that knowledge, of course, we'd be favourites with a 19 point lead.

However, if you'd said to me "we have a 25 point lead halfway through the third, but our players are absolutely exhausted with the extra match, travel and quarantine, and Melbourne's elite fitness that saw them have the least injuries in the league all season came to the fore from that point onward, who would be favourite for the match?" and I would logically have to say Melbourne. That wouldn't have changed, irrespective of the fact that it wasn't known at the time.
 
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Doggy

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I think you have too much belief in the idea that a team would be mentally weaker just on the basis of being 25 points down in the 3rd quarter of a grand final, like their efforts to try would somehow be reduced on the reflection of a belief that they couldn't win. I don't really believe that - I think their efforts to try, and their belief in winning, are almost identical. And even if they weren't, maybe that's the case, but not to the extent that it can overcome the eventual 70 points - the difference in effort would have to be stark. It would have to be a 50+% drop off in performance, which naturally would have to have to have a 50% drop off in "brokenness". Which doesn't make any sense to me, because it suggests some sort of unique relationship between 19 and 25 points that didn't exist, for example, between 13 and 19 points. 19 points was already a pretty steep margin. I would argue that if they were going to lack belief, it would have occurred there, or it would only occur when they were 6+ goals down (ie where chances of win go below 5% on mathematical models, it's the type of win you only get once every two years as an average team).


Because it wasn't clear at the time that Melbourne would demonstrate either successful tactical moves or overall increase in fitness at that point in time onward. There was no way of knowing it with the information at the time. Without that knowledge, of course, we'd be favourites with a 19 point lead.

However, if you'd said to me "we have a 25 point lead halfway through the third, but our players are absolutely exhausted with the extra match, travel and quarantine, and Melbourne's elite fitness that saw them have the least injuries in the league all season came to the fore from that point onward, who would be favourite for the match?" and I would logically have to say Melbourne. That wouldn't have changed, irrespective of the fact that it wasn't known at the time.
Ffs mate can you at least let people have some God damn hope and belief during this time.

Life is hard enough right now. Just let people have an opinion and some hope and belief.

The mood I am in in general far as far as I am concerned you can join the circle jerk at Melbourne.

They're wonderful and unbeatable, we get it
 
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Claudonious

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Agree would definitely persist with Schache down back could become our version of Lever. Hopefully Sweet puts in a massive off season and can come on. So first priority is getting on top of the Ruck situation. Hopefully Sam can pry something loose to help
Sweet has a golden opportunity. Hope he is smashing out the kms already.he has the aggression and ability.needs to build a tank.

look no further than what Gawn was and then became on the back of hard work and discipline.


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Claudonious

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We agree Melbourne would have tried to win the game as much as they did if they were 19 or 25 points or any amount of points behind?

And in the act of scoring 100 points, they demonstrated a range of repeatable, underlying football ability skills and physical capabilities that would have occurred as a result of trying to win irrespective of what else was going on? Irrespective of the direction of how the central umpire bounced the ball, for example, that they still would have found ways to kick the goal from the centre bounce?

If you agree with that, then I don't see how there's any element of luck - stuff that wasn't underlying ability in how to play football - that can overcome literally 74 points difference in a quarter and a half. I would have said that it made no difference, because being 25 points up would not have made Melbourne any worse of a team that they demonstrated by being able to kick 14 goals to 1 from that point on.

Maybe slightly worse - they would not have made the tactical changes they did - but not to the point that it would have swung it by 8 or 9 goals from that point on.
Melbourne were the better team - not 12 goals better though. The last 7 goals were kicked after the game was over and the doggies were resigned to losing.The fatigue of a long campaign combined with the reality they could not win caused the blowout.


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Munnez

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Sweet has a golden opportunity. Hope he is smashing out the kms already.he has the aggression and ability.needs to build a tank.

look no further than what Gawn was and then became on the back of hard work and discipline.


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Have said similar in the Trade thread. Apparently the eagles are putting an offer too him but if he goes there Nic Nat and probably Bailey Williams are in front of him.
If Sweet can build his endurance he will be our No 1 Ruck his forward craft is not strong yet but can clunk a mark and kick a goal. Hope he backs himself in and can take over the No 1 Ruck mantle. Would be awesome to have a settled Ruck duo for the next 8-10 years
 

Munnez

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Melbourne were the better team - not 12 goals better though. The last 7 goals were kicked after the game was over and the doggies were resigned to losing.The fatigue of a long campaign combined with the reality they could not win caused the blowout.


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Psychology is also huge in sport, if Hannan nails the handpass to Bailey Dale and he hammers home a goal from 50. Does that then have an effect on Melbourne. 3 goals is not an insurmountable lead, but you go 4 goals down and momentum is running against you time is running away 4 goals down and have only kicked 5 up until this point.
Melbourne proved to be too good on the day, and fair play to them. A couple of plays had worked out differently Bazlenka letting the ball get away from him letting Fritsch get a regulation shot which starts their run of dominance. The missed handball similar story. Anyway it isn't how it played out so we neef to add some pieces and go again next year
 

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