Post "Brisbane Lions" Threepeat Era (2004-2018)

[McCrann]

Although this year's Grand Final (& Preliminary Finals) were hailed as the 'End of the Hawthorn-Geelong-Sydney era of dominance' I have my doubts, and its also worth considering that Collingwood & West Coast have been the next 2 best performed teams over the last 15 years.

RANKING BY PREMIERSHIPS.GRAND FINALS
4.5 - Hawthorn (2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
3.4 - Geelong (2007, 2008, 2009, 2011)
2.5 - Sydney (2005, 2006, 2012, 2014, 2016)
2.4 - West Coast (2005, 2006, 2015, 2018)

1.3 - Collingwood (2010, 2011, 2018)
1.2 - Port Adelaide (2004, 2007)

1.1 - Western Bulldogs (2016)
1.1- Richmond (2017)

0.2 - St. Kilda (2009, 2010)
0.1 - Adelaide (2017)
0.1 - Fremantle (2013)
0.1 - Brisbane Lions (2004)

And of course Collingwood played in 2 Grand Finals in the immediately preceding two years (2002 & 2003) - which bumps them up level with Hawthorn & Sydney for most Grand Final appearances in the last 20 years - which is when Eddie became President did he not? In fact, counting the Replay, Collingwood have played in more Grand Finals than any other club.

Adding an extra layer of Preliminary Finals would also be favourable for the Pies, as they have played in a quite a few - more than Sydney in the last decade or so for instance.

The point is, a West Coast-Collingwood Grand Final doesn't really represent a 'changing of the guard' -the same third of the competition that has been up there for the last 15 years is still up there dominating (even recognising the Pies have spent a few years out of the finals - there's continuity with Eddie-Bucks-Pendles/Steele for instance).

 

[McCrann]

I should add - for 'End of an era' - all of Hawthorn, Geelong & Sydney made finals in 2018...

Just goes to prove these 5 clubs are the best run clubs of the modern era - and I'd include all 5 of them. Richmond obviously striving to join the pack, although fell (just) short this year.

 

[red+black]

Definitely not the end of any era. Last time Sydney did not make finals in consecutive years was 1995. Geelong 2003. Hawthorn 2006.

Given the AFL's wish for teams north of the border to do well, I don't see the NSW teams dropping off any time soon. We saw what happened with Brisbane and it still irks me that they won 3 in a row during an era of salary cap concessions.

North have been thereabouts for many years although just for nuisance value, much like Melbourne when they make finals, you don't really give them any realistic chance to go all the way. Melbourne should make finals next year, hopefully they can finish top 4 and not go into games as underdogs as they have done ever since 1964.

I'd be curious to know in recent times what is the biggest change in the final 8 from one year to the next.

 

[McCrann]

Definitely not the end of any era. Last time Sydney did not make finals in consecutive years was 1995. Geelong 2003. Hawthorn 2006.

Given the AFL's wish for teams north of the border to do well, I don't see the NSW teams dropping off any time soon. We saw what happened with Brisbane and it still irks me that they won 3 in a row during an era of salary cap concessions.

North have been thereabouts for many years although just for nuisance value, much like Melbourne when they make finals, you don't really give them any realistic chance to go all the way. Melbourne should make finals next year, hopefully they can finish top 4 and not go into games as underdogs as they have done ever since 1964.

I'd be curious to know in recent times what is the biggest change in the final 8 from one year to the next.

Trying to rank clubs for how well they're are run is somewhat subjective, but based off the above I'd suggest. (Taking into account everything - everything - including immediate future prospects).

Top 6
Hawthorn
Geelong
Sydney
West Coast
Collingwood
Richmond

Middle 6
Adelaide
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
GWS Giants
Melbourne

Bottom 6
Gold Coast
Brisbane Lions
St. Kilda
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne

The clubs in red being the hardest to classify. Even though the Dogs are one of the 3 most recent Premiers, their drop-off has been historic in scope.

 

[red+black]

Putting North Melbourne in the bottom 6 is harsh. They make finals every other year and made 2 prelims in the last 5 years.

Melbourne have made finals once in the past 12 years.

 

[McCrann]

Putting North Melbourne in the bottom 6 is harsh. They make finals every other year and made 2 prelims in the last 5 years.

Melbourne have made finals once in the past 12 years.

True, I would suggest Melbourne are likely to have a much better 3 years than their past 3 years. The Kangaroos definitely have upside although it's harder to quantify at present.

This goes to more than just onfield success though, but also off-field. North Melbourne are consistently near the bottom for the Vic clubs - along with my own horrendously managed club.

 

[red+black]

your original post talks about ranking teams on the past 15 years, yet now you are comparing where NM and ME are at now and into the future

 

[McCrann]

your original post talks about ranking teams on the past 15 years, yet now you are comparing where NM and ME are at now and into the future

True. The first post highlights that 5 clubs have dominated the last 15 years - as listed.

I have introduced a new concept there splitting the comp into Top, Middle & Bottom 6s. Call it stream of consciousness posting.

To consider those splits again, I'd ask you to consider the next 3-5 years and what clubs will have the most success over that period? Premierships, Memberships, Revenue, Crowds - key metrics like that. It's probably something that deserves its own post developing these metrics.