Post Covid Australia - When do we open up and what does it look like?

When should we return to 'normal'

  • Now

    Votes: 5 17.2%
  • When we have vexed 80% of the population

    Votes: 19 65.5%
  • When we have vexed 95-100% of the population

    Votes: 3 10.3%
  • Specified date in 2022

    Votes: 1 3.4%
  • Never

    Votes: 1 3.4%

  • Total voters
    29

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TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
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That's an opinion. What is vaccine hesitancy based on - if not fear?

In case you haven't noticed, we haven't been able to attend large gatherings, associate freely or travel within Australia for over a year. Why? Because it is necessary. Eventually, your freedom to once again enjoy those 'benefits' will be determined upon whether you played your role in minimising the burden on the healthcare system in the midst of a global pandemic.

Call it "discrimination" all you wish - I call it being a responsible person who has signed the social contract - allowing me to enjoy the rights that being part of a society brings. And I'm far from alone in that view.

Once we have sufficient supplies of Moderna and Pfizer, should our vaccine rates not be at a high enough %, then reasonable and lawful restrictions that discriminate based on vaccine status will be enacted regardless of your opinion. This may include restricting freedoms on employment, attending events, venues, travel etc. In times of emergency, these restrictions will be deemed lawful and able to be enforced.

When the sh*t hits the fan, pragmatism will always take precedence over empty ideology.
I hear you and pro vax and fully vaccinated already. FTR I find those who don't get vaccinated selfish. but I don't like to push my medical beliefs on others in the form of discrimination. That said I do accept there are a number of reasons why people don't vaccinate:
1) medical reasons including mental health
2) religious beliefs (valid or not)
3) anti-big pharma
4) the real risks including death

The challenge for governments, society and health institutions is to prosecute their argument to encourage vaccination. The tools in place such as Family Benefits and potentially paying people to vax are excellent carrot and stick approaches which do not impede on freedoms.

Consider another angle being a "would be rapist or murder", unfortunately we don't punish them for what may be. Regardless of how we may feel about these individuals, this is one concept that makes our society great as it moves away from mob rule and discrimination.

However when it comes to the un-vaccinated, we are calling for preemptive action and discrimination based on the risk they may have Covid. When in reality the chances they have it is low and those vaccinated may also have Covid.

I also hear the issue of health resources, but we have had over a year to prepare once the "opportunity" for all to get vaccinated rolls around. So this is an issue of planning not an excuse for discrimination.

Planning is pragmatism, discrimination is discrimination and fear. Our job as a society is to not lose what makes us great and give into temptations of the past such as discriminating against women (to control them), to discriminate against aborigines (to control or mitigate their existence). As soon as you see others as "different", start to marginalise those who are different, start to punish those that are different...........this is a slippery slope with a well trodden past.

Further there are 6,000 deaths each year in Oz related to alcohol. If we are fearful of "others" dying, then why don't we ban alcohol or discriminate against alcohol drinkers whether they have had a drink that day or not?

This same issue of alcohol costs Australia at $36B, so by banning alcohol and discriminating against alcohol drinkers (FYI I'm not a teetotaler) we could inject this $36B into the health system.

To be honest, I thought Australia's youth was better than this. I only expected this type of behaviour from those brought up in a day when discrimination was acceptable and institutionalised.
 

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TheBrownDog
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No, the unvaccinated are driven by fear and don't care who they kill off while they demand their freedoms. I don't have much time for them playing the victim when they spread conspiracies and are themselves the stumbling block to beating this thing.
but if your vaccinated, then what is the issue of being exposed to an unsavoury unvaccinated person?

cigarette 24,000 deaths each year yet they are allowed in society burdening the health system - ban it?
alcohol 6,000 deaths each year yet they are allowed in society burdening the health system - ban it?

aboriginals - the injury death rate behind the wheel is 5 times higher than non-indigenous - ban aborigines from driving?
young males - road deaths are over represented and caused by young males drivers - ban them?

In each case we work acknowledge the issue, then start to implement appropriate solutions. Discrimination is frowned upon for a reason.
 

Suspense

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I hear you and pro vax and fully vaccinated already. FTR I find those who don't get vaccinated selfish. but I don't like to push my medical beliefs on others in the form of discrimination. That said I do accept there are a number of reasons why people don't vaccinate:
1) medical reasons including mental health
2) religious beliefs (valid or not)
3) anti-big pharma
4) the real risks including death

The challenge for governments, society and health institutions is to prosecute their argument to encourage vaccination. The tools in place such as Family Benefits and potentially paying people to vax are excellent carrot and stick approaches which do not impede on freedoms.
Sure - but what if they don't move the needle? Look at what is happening in the US. Is that what we want? All because of some empty ideology?

Consider another angle being a "would be rapist or murder", unfortunately we don't punish them for what may be. Regardless of how we may feel about these individuals, this is one concept that makes our society great as it moves away from mob rule and discrimination.

However when it comes to the un-vaccinated, we are calling for preemptive action and discrimination based on the risk they may have Covid. When in reality the chances they have it is low and those vaccinated may also have Covid.
It's not a pre-emptive punishment.

Our rights are not natural - they are tied to our obligations within society. Different countries have different degrees by which they enforce those obligations - but the premise remains the same. I cannot earn assessable income and then refuse to pay my share of tax - otherwise my freedom to earn assessable income, or even freedom of movement (in the case of jail time) will be taken away. My rights are tied to my obligations to pay my share in tax.

This is no different.

I also hear the issue of health resources, but we have had over a year to prepare once the "opportunity" for all to get vaccinated rolls around. So this is an issue of planning not an excuse for discrimination.

Planning is pragmatism, discrimination is discrimination and fear. Our job as a society is to not lose what makes us great and give into temptations of the past such as discriminating against women (to control them), to discriminate against aborigines (to control or mitigate their existence). As soon as you see others as "different", start to marginalise those who are different, start to punish those that are different...........this is a slippery slope with a well trodden past.
While there is scope to scale up some capacity, you cannot just conjure thousands of ICUs and trained staff - particularly when we get a lot of our healthcare staff from overseas. Our healthcare capacity is set to be able to cope with our typical disease burden in a bad flu season, not a pandemic.

Saying that we "should have done xyz" after the fact is not pragmatic - as it is not dealing with the practical realities of the situation that we confront. It's like saying "We shouldn't have appeased Hitler" in 1940. All well and good - but meaningless when German tanks are rolling through Paris.

Reasonable restrictions placed on those who wilfully choose not meet their obligations to society is very different from blanket discrimination against women and aboriginals. An asinine comparison.
 

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Major Colvin

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80% vax rate, vaccine passports for large gatherings, dedicated quarantine facilities
That will be the closest to 'normal' we will get to and in time we will learn to live with it

International travel will open up slowly on a 'bubble' basis e.g. NZ first, pacific islands second, etc. In time a covid jab will be seen as pretty standard, like getting the Yellow fever jab for African travel (nb: it's a requirement for return to Australia, not for entry to most African nations).

I think it will be something like this as well. I believe NZ are looking at the prospect of allowing visitors from predominantly vaccinated overseas countries. Travellers who are vaccinated can arrive without quarantine.

Imperative though to opening up domestically and internationally will be priming the population for the inevitability of continuing COVID cases and deaths, (which the Doherty Report in response the NSW outbreak seems to map out). I believe this re-framing of the conversation will be a significant obstacle, particularly in Australia which has effectively been siloed into 8 mini-countries since the beginning of the pandemic. There needs to be a serious national discussion about the actual realities of reopening with the Delta variant i.e. Continuing cases, some deaths, some continued form of restrictions. I don't expect the media to take ownership of this serious discussion, nor does our Federal government have the ability to do so.

At the moment our national discussion is comprising of a series of disjointed pantomine side-shows, all presented through an entirely political lens -
1) announcing daily cases and death numbers per state and skirmishing between the state governments and the press
2) news of someone breaching health orders, going in a joyride/night out and exposing dozens of people
3) State X has slammed border shut with State Y
4) Now let's hear from what the internet conspiracy theorists have to say about all this
5) Assorted news story of rampant corruption/incompetence in the LNP

The only people benefiting from the current circus (which to be fair is created by the vacuum of leadership and clue at the Federal level) is the media. Meanwhile, Australians are naturally becoming increasingly divided, insular and confused. On one end of the spectrum you have most states which have due to geographical advantages and draconian measures managed to continue living essentially a pre-COVID pleasantville like existence. Whilst making those governments wildly popular, like all populism - it has provided a relatively simple short-term measure at the expense of confronting long-term hard truths. Then on the other side of course, you have the News Corp/SKY News Alan Jones, Adam Creighton crowd - open spreading disinformation about the virus since it has began, advocating for reopening at every stage and brazenly dismissing any consequences that would result.

Somehow we need to thread the needle of this incredibly toxic minefield that has been allowed to fester over 18 months. I think it will be incumbent on the Premiers outside NSW to begin preparing for these realities and being open and honest about them with their constituents. I hope this is one of the number agendas in the national cabinet meetings already. They will lose some popularity, but I really hope the likes of McGowan - who I do rate all things considered - recognises that their status quo simply cannot continue as of 2022. Once they have reached the 80% vaccination rate, if indeed they do, they will need to prepare their folks for the prospect of Delta cases and some form of restrictions being part of life.
 
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Mofra

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I think it will be something like this as well. I believe NZ are looking at the prospect of allowing visitors from predominantly vaccinated overseas. Travellers who are vaccinated can arrive without quarantine.

Imperative though to opening up domestically and internationally will be priming the population for the inevitably for continuing COVID cases and deaths, (which the Doherty Report in response the NSW outbreak seems to map out). I believe this re-framing of the conversation will be a significant obstacle, particularly in Australia which has effectively been siloed into 8 min-countries since the beginning of the pandemic. There needs to be a serious national discussion about the actual realities of reopening with the Delta variant i.e. Continuing cases, some deaths, some continued form of restrictions. I don't expect the media to take ownership of this serious discussion, nor does our Federal government have the capability to so.

At the moment our national discussion is comprising of a series of disjointed pantomine side-shows, all presented through an entirely political lens -
1) announcing daily cases and death numbers per state and skirmishing between the state governments and the press
2) news of someone breaching health orders, going in a joyride/night out and exposing dozens of people
3) State X has slammed border shut with State Y
4) Now let's hear from what the internet experts conspiracy theorists have to say about all this
5) Assorted news story of rampant corruption/incompetence in the LNP

The only people benefiting from the current circus (which to be fair is created by the vacuum of leadership and clue at the Federal level) is the media. Meanwhile, Australians are naturally becoming increasingly divided, insular and confused. On one end of the spectrum you have most states which have due to geographical advantages and draconian measures managed to continue living essentially a pre-COVID pleasantville like existence. Whilst making those governments wildly popular, like all populism - it has provided a relatively simple short-term measure at the expense of confronting long-term hard truths. Then on the other side of course, you have the News Corp/SKY News Alan Jones, Adam Creighton crowd - open spreading disinformation about the virus since it has began, advocating for reopening at every stage and brazenly dismissing any consequences that would result.

Somehow we need to thread the needle of this incredibly toxic minefield that has been allowed to fester over 18 months. I think it will be incumbent on the Premiers outside NSW to begin preparing for these realities and being open and honest about them with their constituents. I hope this is one of the number agendas in the national cabinet meetings already. They will lose some popularity, but I really hope the likes of McGowan - who I do rate all things considered - recognises that their status quo simply cannot continue as of 2022. Once they have reached the 80% vaccination rate, if indeed they do, they will never to prepare their folks for the prospect of Delta cases and some form of restrictions being part of life.
Brilliant post, and all true.
There will be a time when the risk levels are reduced enough to open back up and achieve some sense of normality and we will 'learn to live with it', but I don't think that risk factor will be acceptable without enough of the population vaccinated so that our health system can cope.
Purpose build quarantine facilities have to be part of the solution as well as hotels just aren't fit for purpose.
 
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but if your vaccinated, then what is the issue of being exposed to an unsavoury unvaccinated person?

cigarette 24,000 deaths each year yet they are allowed in society burdening the health system - ban it?
alcohol 6,000 deaths each year yet they are allowed in society burdening the health system - ban it?

aboriginals - the injury death rate behind the wheel is 5 times higher than non-indigenous - ban aborigines from driving?
young males - road deaths are over represented and caused by young males drivers - ban them?

In each case we work acknowledge the issue, then start to implement appropriate solutions. Discrimination is frowned upon for a reason.
I get my second shot in 2 weeks. I'll be okay 2 weeks after that.

Meanwhile my 8 year old daughter is exposed. My 2 year old grandson is exposed. I don't give a sh*t about likelihoods and what not. Many parents have lost children because of this.

This thing will keep going around until we reach a certain vaccination rate and while those who are vaccinated can still get it in a mild fashion, they can also pass it on to loved ones who can't be vaccinated.

People make the choice to smoke and drink and we do have controls to stop those people affecting others with second hand smoke.

Driving is necessary and we have many controls there too. Not getting a vaccine because you believe in Facebook conspiracies or want to stick it up the left is just not an excuse.

Why should be concede for those people who are allowing this virus to continue spreading and mutating?
 

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TheBrownDog
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I get my second shot in 2 weeks. I'll be okay 2 weeks after that.

Meanwhile my 8 year old daughter is exposed. My 2 year old grandson is exposed. I don't give a sh*t about likelihoods and what not. Many parents have lost children because of this.

This thing will keep going around until we reach a certain vaccination rate and while those who are vaccinated can still get it in a mild fashion, they can also pass it on to loved ones who can't be vaccinated.

People make the choice to smoke and drink and we do have controls to stop those people affecting others with second hand smoke.

Driving is necessary and we have many controls there too. Not getting a vaccine because you believe in Facebook conspiracies or want to stick it up the left is just not an excuse.

Why should be concede for those people who are allowing this virus to continue spreading and mutating?
one of the reasons why I'm pro vax is my father spent 12 months as a 8 year old in one of these

1628820663325.png


polio was devastating. Imagine not moving as a child for 12 months and been wheeled to a hospital window to watch kids play at lunch at the school next door? Imagine surviving that only to get post-polio syndrome where the more you exercise, the faster your muscles waste away?

Being a first word place with so few diseases, we forget how important vaccination is. I just feel we should educate our society as to how we became so lucky.
 

hamohawk1

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NSW will likely be the first state in Aus to embrace somewhat 'living' with Covid, and if the 2-5 mystery cases keep popping up in VIC i dare say we won't be far behind. Conversely, the high uptake of Vaccines in both states (comparative to other states) will likely place them both in a condition to do so.
 
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We must all have our vaccine passport/ID.
This will ensure big pharma know exactly how many vaccines to make.
No vaccine ID, you self isolate on the dole.


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Major Colvin

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We're going to encounter an impasse when say, NSW has vaccinated 70-80% of the population over 16, but in all likelihood they will still have tens of thousands of active cases. Other states will obviously be reluctant to open their borders to NSW, but my honest question is, if they have obtained 80% threshold themselves - would they be delaying the inevitable?

Andrews said that the Doherty Report's recommendation of the 80% threshold to reopen, is stipulated on a low or zero covid transmission. Maybe I have lockdown brain but does anyone know why it matters how much community transmission there is if you've reached that 80% threshold nationally? My guess is the same reason the epidemiological advice was to 'flatten the curve'' early on in the pandemic - ensure the hospitals are not overwhelmed/inundated with COVID patients at the same time. As I assume once we reopen (whenever that is), COVID will eventually just begin circulating in the vaxxed and unvaxxed community, and a low number of cases will inevitably become a high number of cases (breakthrough cases of the vaxxed and actual cases of the unvaxxed) in a short space of time.

By the same token, I'm guessing some form of restrictions would be required after reopening. Then gradually over say a year, restrictions could be gradually removed as herd immunity of either being vaxxed or having contracted COVID has come into effect.
 
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We're going to encounter an impasse when say, NSW has vaccinated 70-80% of the population over 16, but in all likelihood they will still have tens of thousands of active cases. Other states will obviously be reluctant to open their borders to NSW, but my honest question is, if they have obtained 80% threshold themselves - would they be delaying the inevitable?

Andrews said that the Doherty Report's recommendation of the 80% threshold to reopen, is stipulated on a low or zero covid transmission. Maybe I have lockdown brain but does anyone know why it matters how much community transmission there is if you've reached that 80% threshold nationally? My guess is the same reason the epidemiological advice was to 'flatten the curve'' early on in the pandemic - ensure the hospitals are not overwhelmed/inundated with COVID patients at the same time. As I assume once we reopen (whenever that is), COVID will eventually just begin circulating in the vaxxed and unvaxxed community, and a low number of cases will inevitably become a high number of cases (breakthrough cases of the vaxxed and actual cases of the unvaxxed) in a short space of time.

By the same token, I'm guessing some form of restrictions would be required after reopening. Then gradually over say a year, restrictions could be gradually removed as herd immunity of either being vaxxed or having contracted COVID has come into effect.
The solution is mandatory forced vaccination,ie, held down and jabbed per the best health advice from whichever cat lady is the CMO.

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TheBrownDog
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We're going to encounter an impasse when say, NSW has vaccinated 70-80% of the population over 16, but in all likelihood they will still have tens of thousands of active cases. Other states will obviously be reluctant to open their borders to NSW, but my honest question is, if they have obtained 80% threshold themselves - would they be delaying the inevitable?

Andrews said that the Doherty Report's recommendation of the 80% threshold to reopen, is stipulated on a low or zero covid transmission. Maybe I have lockdown brain but does anyone know why it matters how much community transmission there is if you've reached that 80% threshold nationally? My guess is the same reason the epidemiological advice was to 'flatten the curve'' early on in the pandemic - ensure the hospitals are not overwhelmed/inundated with COVID patients at the same time. As I assume once we reopen (whenever that is), COVID will eventually just begin circulating in the vaxxed and unvaxxed community, and a low number of cases will inevitably become a high number of cases (breakthrough cases of the vaxxed and actual cases of the unvaxxed) in a short space of time.

By the same token, I'm guessing some form of restrictions would be required after reopening. Then gradually over say a year, restrictions could be gradually removed as herd immunity of either being vaxxed or having contracted COVID has come into effect.
Best pathway forward is, once 100% of the people have had the "opportunity" to be vaccinated, for the sh*t scared to lock themselves up for 4 or 5 years and let ordinary people get on with their lives.

We can have a reality TV program about the sh*t scared, with their dooms day prepping, bomb bunkers and gas masks. We may also find out who was buying all that toilet paper.
 

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Crankyhawk

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If 80% have been vaxed, then 20% are unvaxed. I don't see the CHOs easing up under that scenario unless Covid becomes endemic.
arguably NSW and victoria are now in that endemic situation.

what I would like to see
- removal of tier 2 quarantine requirements once 80% vaccinated for all asymptomatic people (adults)
- for vaccinated persons, once we are at 80% do not isolate for tier 1 unless you have symptoms
- continued indoor mask wearing recommended in public places (individuals can make choice re visitors to own houses)
- cash incentives for vaccination
- reopen outdoor venues to 50% capacity
 

hamohawk1

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VIC taking the conservative approach to opening up (as has occurred over the last two years) NSW going the more riskier faster less restrictive opening up.

Will be interesting to see how each works economically, and to each healthcare system.
 

Kwality

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This thing will keep going around until we reach a certain vaccination rate and while those who are vaccinated can still get it in a mild fashion, they can also pass it on to loved ones who can't be vaccinated.
Here we are 2 months on & we still dont know what number of % vaccinated is actually working to control infection numbers.
 

Kwality

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On to other factors that will be tested when opening up include imports in a world shipping market that is feeling the heat :

The Port of Melbourne is already compromised with the limitations of Port Phillip Bay & other port:

'We can’t be globally competitive in terms of trade until we have a capability within Australia that is at world’s best practice. We certainly don’t have that technologically and from an infrastructure point of view.”

Paul Little* points to the capacity of the Port of Melbourne as one pressure point. The world’s biggest container ships can take 25,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo. The largest ship that can enter the Port of Melbourne can take around 8000 TEUs.

“We’re still lucky to get anything in excess of about 5000,” he says.

“So we are so far behind what the rest of the world is doing. And in logistics big is beautiful. Scale is what it’s all about. We’re sort of slipping and sliding where as the rest of the globe is pushing ahead quite aggressively, and we don’t have our own shipping line based here, we sold ANL. Now were at the mercy of the six or seven major shipping companies that do what they like.”

*Paul Little: ...wealth was estimated at $1.34bn on this year’s edition of The List – Australia’s Richest 250 — maintained his large shareholding in Toll until it was bought by Japan Post in what turned out to be a disastrous $6.5bn takeover in 2015.

Regardless of the political posturing, we have been on a good wicket this century & we might just be running out of options.
 

kranky al

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I hear you

but more people have died from influenza and pneumonia than covid in the UK and no doubt Australia in the last 6 months. So why discriminate by disease?

if we support euthanasia, how can we discriminate against someone willingly exposing themselves to covid risk?
if we know the risk categories of covid are hypertension, diabetes and heart disease, why not ban fast food, alcohol and mandate exercise?
75% of all world road deaths are caused by males under the age of 25, why don't we just ban young men from driving?

The answer to the issue you highlight is simple. We do not have to institutionalise discrimination.
- We can educate
- We can encourage
- We can offer incentives such as payments (like donating sperm)
- We can remove family A and child rebates

But restricting freedom of movement within Australia, restricting the right to gather, restricting the right to participate based on vaccination is no less disgraceful than discriminating on age, sexual orientation, religion or the colour of one's skin.

Medical in confidence exists because people discriminate. This discussion highlights exactly that.



and no, there would be no more lock downs. That's the point of opening up once everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated. Those that aren't vaccinated will simply take the risk.
If those who refuse to vaccinate understand that they will be triaged in the event of 1 bed or respirator and 2 patients im happy with that.

They have chosen to believe the vaccine is worse than the disease - stick to your guns!
 

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If those who refuse to vaccinate understand that they will be triaged in the event of 1 bed or respirator and 2 patients im happy with that.

They have chosen to believe the vaccine is worse than the disease - stick to your guns!
Agree

Triage is all about allocating resources! There is always a car park and a paper bag to blow into
 

hamohawk1

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If those who refuse to vaccinate understand that they will be triaged in the event of 1 bed or respirator and 2 patients im happy with that.

They have chosen to believe the vaccine is worse than the disease - stick to your guns!
Seems if you're not vaxxed and get sick you're playing with fire too, consistent theme in the last month of being totally fine at 3pm, and being unresponsive at 4pm.
 

Kwality

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Agree

Triage is all about allocating resources! There is always a car park and a paper bag to blow into
Takes a fair degree of faith to believe Melbourne can open up before Xmas, but it will.

If there is anywhere for Triage to send you, with the queue of ambulances (all driven by Army personnel ) in front of you in Melbourne.

For those not familiar with Melbourne geography the Angliss is 30+ kms out of the CBD, in the foothills of the Dandenongs with severe staff shortages, exacerbated by a knackered workforce.
 

Crankyhawk

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Takes a fair degree of faith to believe Melbourne can open up before Xmas, but it will.

If there is anywhere for Triage to send you, with the queue of ambulances (all driven by Army personnel ) in front of you in Melbourne.

For those not familiar with Melbourne geography the Angliss is 30+ kms out of the CBD, in the foothills of the Dandenongs with severe staff shortages, exacerbated by a knackered workforce.
We have had a tent type structure for the last 2 weeks for confirmed positive patients who we don't think are likely to need admit/ oxygen so we can assess and aim discharge (they can't get medical care for other issues anywhere else) I think this will stay in the post covid lockdown world.
As will respiratory virus isolation wards (maybe not the number we have at the moment - 4 wards) but they will need to balance out with expected demand
 

Kwality

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We have had a tent type structure for the last 2 weeks for confirmed positive patients who we don't think are likely to need admit/ oxygen so we can assess and aim discharge (they can't get medical care for other issues anywhere else) I think this will stay in the post covid lockdown world.
As will respiratory virus isolation wards (maybe not the number we have at the moment - 4 wards) but they will need to balance out with expected demand
How widespread are the temporary structures across the health networks?
 

Crankyhawk

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How widespread are the temporary structures across the health networks?
i don't know. I would think they are. We also have a second tent not for ED but to administer the sotrivumab which is the antibody infusion for newly positive, not yet short of breath people who are unvaccinated AND have either a chronic health condition or are over 55 years of age. (though i'm not sure why there is an age cut off having seen pretty young fit people unvaccinated crash and burn)
 

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