Pre Poll Voting - Should it stay or go?

[its free real estate]

Judging by the first couple of pages in this thread, I suspect there's a lot of people who pay more attention to American politics and are then using what they've heard from over there and applying it to our system.

Always surprises how functionally ignorant some of the most impassioned people about politics are of the basic mechanics of politics. Like Sydney fans screaming “BALL” when their own players are tackled.

 

[Forward Press]

Judging by the first couple of pages in this thread, I suspect there's a lot of people who pay more attention to American politics and are then using what they've heard from over there and applying it to our system.

Although I don't agree that the US Republics and Democrats are far right and right wing respectively, I would argue that the Dems are a fair bit further right than Labor here and probably not that far from the Libs.

Universal health care is almost considered verboten there, for example. Even Obamacare was a watered-down version and not really comparable to the UK's NHS or our Medicare. But I do agree that it's hard to have a direct comparison because the two systems are so different and evolved very differently due to local variations.

 

[The Speaker]

Although I don't agree that the US Republics and Democrats are far right and right wing respectively, I would argue that the Dems are a fair bit further right than Labor here and probably not that far from the Libs.

Universal health care is almost considered verboten there, for example. Even Obamacare was a watered-down version and not really comparable to the UK's NHS or our Medicare. But I do agree that it's hard to have a direct comparison because the two systems are so different and evolved very differently due to local variations.

One of the biggest differences is that we have a functional distinction between politics and policy on the one hand, and the logistics of running an election on the other. I was accused earlier in the thread of disliking the way pre-polling done at the moment because I'm a conservative who must, therefore, want to suppress voting. This is an accusation that only makes sense in a US context, where the running of elections is itself heavily politicised and terribly run as a result. People who self-identify as Republicans are suspicious of voter fraud, people who self-identify as Democrats are suspicious of voter suppression.

We don't have that problem here, thanks in large part to the superb AEC.

 

[Caesar]

4-year-old information from not federal elections.

It’s one election ago you spoon. And it is just an example of a pretty consistent trend you see at all levels and all elections, as the study posted by The Speaker makes clear.

Though I must say, I find this sudden zeal of yours for sourcing claims rather refreshing. I look forward to seeing the footnotes for your next screed.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

I don’t get how someone who spends his life obsessing over politics could get this so wrong. It’s been the case for as long as I can remember that pre polls are strongly biased towards the Liberals, no matter the electorate.

I dunno why that is, Liberals are out playing rugby or on their yachts or something on Saturdays, but it’s one of iron rules of elections.

I'm a fifo worker flying back out of Vic for WA tomorrow, for a 14 day swing. The have pre-polling stations Ser up in the terminals at Perth airport but I didn't want to risk not having time so Ij voted locally.

Perhaps pre-polling favours the Liberals because a lot of pre-pollers have good paying jobs and don't want to be gouged anymore, or as I witnessed at my polling station today ,nearly all of them are the elderly. I reckon I was the youngest by at least 10 years, I'm 50.

 

[Patrick Bullet]

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-elec...-the-nature-of-elections-20190426-p51hhk.html

If you have access, the analysis is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379417301580

From the article:
"These findings show that early voting conveys a significant advantage to the Liberal-National parties, as the hypothesis predicts. The parameter estimate of 0.976 for postal voting in the Liberal-National equation in Table 4 suggests that there is a 49.4 percent greater probability of a postal voter casting her ballot for the Coalition as opposed to the excluded category, the Greens. The same calculation for the Labor equation results in a 36.6 percent greater probability of a postal votercasting their ballot for Labor. Since our principal interest is in any electoral advantage that the major parties may derive from early voting, the results show that postal voters have a 12.8 percent greater probability of voting Coalition rather than Labor."

 

[Fire]

In relative terms, the Democrats over here are centre-right, much like the ALP back home. Except that the Democrats are more corporatist, and the American centre is far more to the right as a starting point. In real terms, they are closer to the LNP and are run by people not far off being neocons.

The only people who think that the Democrats are leftists are those that live in a bubble, and view figures like AOC as being anything other than a fringe voice. The party is controlled by The likes of Pelosi and Feinstein. They appeal to The centre. They actively interfered on behalf of the Clintons in 2016 and will do the same for Biden going forward.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

AEC reporting 2.6 million pre-polls as at Monday evening

 

[The Speaker]

In relative terms, the Democrats over here are centre-right, much like the ALP back home. Except that the Democrats are more corporatist, and the American centre is far more to the right as a starting point. In real terms, they are closer to the LNP and are run by people not far off being neocons.

The only people who think that the Democrats are leftists are those that live in a bubble, and view figures like AOC as being anything other than a fringe voice. The party is controlled by The likes of Pelosi and Feinstein. They appeal to The centre. They actively interfered on behalf of the Clintons in 2016 and will do the same for Biden going forward.

Pelosi, Biden, Schumer are part of the old guard that are losing control of the party. There is no way the new guard could be regarded as 'centre-right' even if you use right-left, which I don't.

 

[Fire]

Pelosi, Biden, Schumer are part of the old guard that are losing control of the party.

I wish this was true. But it's not.

 

[The Speaker]

I wish this was true. But it's not.

Mate, if you think that the social and economic policies of people like AOC (who are absolutely not the kind of people they want to pick but are being selected by the grassroots) are 'centre-right', there's not much I can do for you.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Mate, if you think that the social and economic policies of people like AOC (who are absolutely not the kind of people they want to pick but are being selected by the grassroots) are 'centre-right', there's not much I can do for you.

AOC's policies are main stream policies here in Aus

 

[Fire]

Mate, if you think that the social and economic policies of people like AOC (who are absolutely not the kind of people they want to pick but are being selected by the grassroots) are 'centre-right', there's not much I can do for you.

I never made that claim.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Mate, if you think that the social and economic policies of people like AOC (who are absolutely not the kind of people they want to pick but are being selected by the grassroots) are 'centre-right', there's not much I can do for you.

AOC isn't the future of the Dems, she is just what is getting attention. Most of the Dems who won in 2018 were not progressives or socialists, but more centralist candidates from outside California and NY

 

[The Speaker]

If you want to know why Biden's leading the polls, it's because most Americans aren't on board with the radical liberal social agenda of the inner-city Democrats taking over the party.

In any case, thank you all for confirming that there are people in this forum more interested in American politics than Australian.

 

[its free real estate]

AOC only has attention because she’s hot.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

If you want to know why Biden's leading the polls, it's because most Americans aren't on board with the radical liberal social agenda of the inner-city Democrats taking over the party.

In any case, thank you all for confirming that there are people in this forum more interested in American politics than Australian.

You don't think people can walk and chew gum at the same time?

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

I thought it was well known that postal votes and pre-poll votes favour the coalition, the former even moreso compared to the latter.

Nothing wrong with that, just the nature of the demographics that submit postal and pre-poll votes.

That seems odd on the surface. I would have thought those with an excuse to pre-poll would be shift and casual workers, who are more likely to be working on the Saturday. I would expect they would, all other things being equal, tend to favour the ALP; except maybe doctors.

Traditionally, back when I was young; the theory was that only coalition voters could afford to travel so postal, absentee and pre-poll favoured the coalition. That would not hold water now, even then it was probably to not the case.

 

[Caesar]

That seems odd on the surface. I would have thought those with an excuse to pre-poll would be shift and casual workers, who are more likely to be working on the Saturday. I would expect they would, all other things being equal, tend to favour the ALP; except maybe doctors.

Maybe at one point this would have been the case. But studies in recent years have shown >50% of people pre-polling are not working on the day and doing it purely out of convenience. I imagine a fair proportion of those would be retirees who can go midweek when things are quiet, who would skew heavily towards the Coalition.

Traditionally, back when I was young; the theory was that only coalition voters could afford to travel so postal, absentee and pre-poll favoured the coalition. That would not hold water now, even then it was probably to not the case.

A lot of country people are on the permanent postal vote register, so that always heavily favours the Coalition.

The vast majority of absentee votes are city people from geographically small electorates, who are out and about in their cars on election day and accidentally find themselves in a neighbouring electorate. Because the ALP enjoys higher metro support, these tend to break towards them.

 

[iluvparis]

That's such a flippant response. Everything involves an opportunity cost. Personally I'd rather the money be spent on more effective accessibility programs (like postal and mobile voting, which have much higher rates of genuine use).

Ok - when those are legitimately on the table I'll change my mind - until then my comment stands. Anything that moves voting easier/more convenient is unambiguously positive.

 

[iluvparis]

AOC only has attention because she’s hot.

#would

 

[Caesar]

Ok - when those are legitimately on the table I'll change my mind - until then my comment stands.

Literally the same parliamentary report that recommended reducing pre-polls to 2 weeks (recommendation 18) also recommended improvements to mobile voting (recommendation 23), and postal vote education and accessibility (recommendations 19, 20 and 22).

They also recommended a raft of other (better) accessibility measures than 3 weeks of pre-polls, like implementing iVote for vision-impaired voters (recommendation 24), express queuing for mobility-affected voters (recommendation 16) and targeted research and accessibility initiatives for low-turnout electorates and indigenous voters (recommendations 8 and 13).

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Maybe at one point this would have been the case. But studies in recent years have shown >50% of people pre-polling are not working on the day and doing it purely out of convenience. I imagine a fair proportion of those would be retirees who can go midweek when things are quiet, who would skew heavily towards the Coalition.

True. I guess in my defence I did say with an excuse to vote. That is, if pre-poll was being used for what it was designed for rather than just a pubic convenience. (Read whatever you want into the last two words.)

 

[iluvparis]

Good - and when those recommendations are adopted I will withdraw my support for such lengthy pre-polling

 

[Caesar]

when those are legitimately on the table I'll change my mind

when those recommendations are adopted I will withdraw my support