AFLW Pre-season (Nov/Dec 2021) - Practice match results in OP

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
BL: 1.5 2.9 6.14 9.15 (69)
GC: 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 (8)

Goals
BL: 3 Farquharson, 2 Bodey, 1 Ellenger, 1 Smith, 1 Lutkins, 1 Yoshida-Martin
GC: 1 Groves-Little
 

Biggie

Always watching
Sep 28, 2005
80,365
78,094
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Eagles AFLW, Subiaco, Wildcats


Lightning temporarily held the game up also but they’re back on
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
Full time at Casey Fields

Melb: 0.0 2.4 2.5 6.5 (41)
Coll: 2.2 2.3 3.4 3.4 (22)

Goals
Melb: 4 Hore, 1 West, 1 Hanks
Coll: 2 ?, 1 Frederick
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
Carl: 3.4 4.6 6.8 6.10 (46)
StK: 0.1 2.1 4.2 4.4 (28)

Goals
Carl: 2 Vescio, 2 Stevens, 1 Hammans, 1 Walker
StK: 3 ?, 1 Shannon
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Score
WB: 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 (8)
NM: 2.2 5.5 7.8 8.11 (59)


Richmond v Geelong

Half time
Rich: 1.4 2.4 (16)
Geel: 3.0 3.6 (24)

Goals
Rich: 2 Wakefield
Geel: 1 McWilliams, 1 Ivey, 1 ?
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
Richmond v Geelong
Half time
Rich: 1.4 2.4 (16)
Geel: 3.0 3.6 (24)

Goals
Rich: 2 Wakefield
Geel: 1 McWilliams, 1 Ivey, 1 ?
Full time
Rich: 1.4 2.4 3.6 3.7 (25)
Geel: 3.0 3.6 5.8 6.12 (48)

Goals
Rich: 2 Wakefield, 1 Kiely
Geel: 2 McWilliams, 1 Ivey, 1 Higgins, 1 Darby, 1 ?

BL: 1.5 2.9 6.14 9.15 (69)
GC: 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 (8)

Goals
BL: 3 Farquharson, 2 Bodey, 1 Ellenger, 1 Smith, 1 Lutkins, 1 Yoshida-Martin
GC: 1 Groves-Little
Brisbane match report:

Full time at Casey Fields

Melb: 0.0 2.4 2.5 6.5 (41)
Coll: 2.2 2.3 3.4 3.4 (22)

Goals
Melb: 4 Hore, 1 West, 1 Hanks
Coll: 2 ?, 1 Frederick
Some footage:
 
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Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Score
WB: 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 (8)
NM: 2.2 5.5 7.8 8.11 (59)
Goals
WB: 1 Morris-Dalton
NM: 2 Riddell, 2 Garner, 2 Ashmore, 1 Bateman, 1 Emma King


Carl: 3.4 4.6 6.8 6.10 (46)
StK: 0.1 2.1 4.2 4.4 (28)

Goals
Carl: 2 Vescio, 2 Stevens, 1 Hammans, 1 Walker
StK: 3 ?, 1 Shannon
Carlton match report contains a highlights video and a goals video:

Full time
Rich: 1.4 2.4 3.6 3.7 (25)
Geel: 3.0 3.6 5.8 6.12 (48)

Goals
Rich: 2 Wakefield, 1 Kiely
Geel: 2 McWilliams, 1 Ivey, 1 Higgins, 1 Darby, 1 ?
Full Richmond v Geelong replay already uploaded:
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
FRE: 0.0 1.3 1.5 3.5 (23)
WCE: 2.1 4.1 5.2 5.2 (32)

Goals
FRE: 1 Runnalls/Houghton, 1 Webb, 1 Stewart
WCE: 2 Gilmore, 1 Bowen, 1 Thomas, 1 Bullas

I missed the first half. Conflicting reports about one of Fremantle's goal kickers.
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
"The potential to cause injury must be factored into the determination of Impact"

It took a whole day for that to be made a mockery of.


No way has it been factored into account with Moloney's tackle on Brancatisano. And any doubt with regards to that being careless or intentional ought to have been clarified by the fact Moloney wanted to go on with it after the tackle.

Meagan Kiely was also lucky, not even picking up a reprimand after she ran past the ball to bump Georgie Prespakis which resulted in a head clash (an ultimately tame one, but again: "potential to cause injury must...").
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,956
10,066
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
FRE: 0.0 1.3 1.5 3.5 (23)
WCE: 2.1 4.1 5.2 5.2 (32)

Goals
FRE: 1 Runnalls/Houghton, 1 Webb, 1 Stewart
WCE: 2 Gilmore, 1 Bowen, 1 Thomas, 1 Bullas

I missed the first half. Conflicting reports about one of Fremantle's goal kickers.
surprising result given both teams playing basically full strength. Is there a replay available anywhere?
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
I have developed the most powerful tool in sports prediction technology since that soccer octopus.

This science-adjacent forecaster, known as the CRAP (Collectivity, Reliability, Accountability and Productivity) system, analyses four weighted categories and represents each team’s premiership chances in a single percentage figure.

CRAP says Melbourne have a 12.16% chance of winning the flag, the highest in the league. They are closely followed by North Melbourne (12.13%), who might’ve been runaway favourites if not for a sub-par Accountability rating.

Although many confused pundits claim Brisbane’s teamwork and tactics are the foundation of their success, CRAP has assigned the Lions an underwhelming 1.68 Collectivity rating, suggesting a smaller-than-average arsenal of exceptional playmakers are responsible for their high Productivity ranking.

Other noted notables include some well-regarded teams, like Adelaide and Collingwood, ranking low in Reliability because of poor injury track records to key players.

This research is based on eighty bushels of data, and any questioning of the findings is forbidden.

CRAPaflw.png


CRAP PER (Player Exquisiteness Receptor), an extension of CRAP, has decided Dana Hooker (8.57%) is the most likely League B&F winner, followed by Monique Conti (7.84%). It also indicates Alyssa Bannan (15.25%) is the most likely player to take out the Rising Star award, while Danielle Ponter (27.91%) is a certainty to win the Vescio Medal.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,956
10,066
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I have developed the most powerful tool in sports prediction technology since that soccer octopus.

This science-adjacent forecaster, known as the CRAP (Collectivity, Reliability, Accountability and Productivity) system, analyses four weighted categories and represents each team’s premiership chances in a single percentage figure.

CRAP says Melbourne have a 12.16% chance of winning the flag, the highest in the league. They are closely followed by North Melbourne (12.13%), who might’ve been runaway favourites if not for a sub-par Accountability rating.

Although many confused pundits claim Brisbane’s teamwork and tactics are the foundation of their success, CRAP has assigned the Lions an underwhelming 1.68 Collectivity rating, suggesting a smaller-than-average arsenal of exceptional playmakers are responsible for their high Productivity ranking.

Other noted notables include some well-regarded teams, like Adelaide and Collingwood, ranking low in Reliability because of poor injury track records to key players.

This research is based on eighty bushels of data, and any questioning of the findings is forbidden.

View attachment 1302909

CRAP PER (Player Exquisiteness Receptor), an extension of CRAP, has decided Dana Hooker (8.57%) is the most likely League B&F winner, followed by Monique Conti (7.84%). It also indicates Alyssa Bannan (15.25%) is the most likely player to take out the Rising Star award, while Danielle Ponter (27.91%) is a certainty to win the Vescio Medal.
So what sort of metrics have been used to collect this data ?
Love your work btw, this gets me very excited.
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
So what sort of metrics have been used to collect this data ?
Love your work btw, this gets me very excited.
C - Player disposals/goals/contested marks/etc in relation to league average
R - Games missed due to injury
A - Tackles, intercept possessions, R50s vs points conceded
P - Clearances won, metres gained, I50s vs points scored

C, A and P weighted for performance against assessed quality of opposition, recency and list changes from previous years (including presumed changes, i.e. Patrikios unavailable). R weighted for quality of assessed injured player.

For the League B&F, I took the top ~50 still-active vote-getters, and measured how they poll (how often/many votes they get in wins/losses) vs how their team is predicted to perform (derived from the CRAP system). I also added player's individual R rating, but changed that to "games missed due to football-related injury and suspension"... ensuring Hooker would rank first, rather than somebody who has already won it before because that would be boring (though it's also a logical modification). Similar process was used for leading goal-kicker.

For the Rising Star, I just measured the characteristics of eligible nominees against the average characteristics of past winners. Bannan (19y8m, high draft pick, Victorian club with high CRAP) fit the bill in most areas.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,956
10,066
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
C - Player disposals/goals/contested marks/etc in relation to league average
R - Games missed due to injury
A - Tackles, intercept possessions, R50s vs points conceded
P - Clearances won, metres gained, I50s vs points scored

C, A and P weighted for performance against assessed quality of opposition, recency and list changes from previous years (including presumed changes, i.e. Patrikios unavailable). R weighted for quality of assessed injured player.

For the League B&F, I took the top ~50 still-active vote-getters, and measured how they poll (how often/many votes they get in wins/losses) vs how their team is predicted to perform (derived from the CRAP system). I also added player's individual R rating, but changed that to "games missed due to football-related injury and suspension"... ensuring Hooker would rank first, rather than somebody who has already won it before because that would be boring (though it's also a logical modification). Similar process was used for leading goal-kicker.

For the Rising Star, I just measured the characteristics of eligible nominees against the average characteristics of past winners. Bannan (19y8m, high draft pick, Victorian club with high CRAP) fit the bill in most areas.
That's amazing, nice work. If you don't mind sharing/Pm'ing the spreadsheets I'd be super interested.
 

Teen Wolf

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 5, 2011
5,184
6,092
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Rancho Carne Toros
That's amazing, nice work. If you don't mind sharing/Pm'ing the spreadsheets I'd be super interested.
Sure thing, I'll probably start a thread for it once I'm able to make it (or make it seem) intelligible and plonk all the numbers in there.