Full timeRichmond v Geelong
Rich: 1.4 2.4 (16)
Geel: 3.0 3.6 (24)
Rich: 2 Wakefield
Geel: 1 McWilliams, 1 Ivey, 1 ?
Brisbane match report:BL: 1.5 2.9 6.14 9.15 (69)
GC: 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 (8)
BL: 3 Farquharson, 2 Bodey, 1 Ellenger, 1 Smith, 1 Lutkins, 1 Yoshida-Martin
GC: 1 Groves-Little
Some footage:Full time at Casey Fields
Melb: 0.0 2.4 2.5 6.5 (41)
Coll: 2.2 2.3 3.4 3.4 (22)
Melb: 4 Hore, 1 West, 1 Hanks
Coll: 2 ?, 1 Frederick
GoalsWestern Bulldogs v North Melbourne
WB: 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 (8)
NM: 2.2 5.5 7.8 8.11 (59)
Carlton match report contains a highlights video and a goals video:Carl: 3.4 4.6 6.8 6.10 (46)
StK: 0.1 2.1 4.2 4.4 (28)
Carl: 2 Vescio, 2 Stevens, 1 Hammans, 1 Walker
StK: 3 ?, 1 Shannon
Full Richmond v Geelong replay already uploaded:Full time
Rich: 1.4 2.4 3.6 3.7 (25)
Geel: 3.0 3.6 5.8 6.12 (48)
Rich: 2 Wakefield, 1 Kiely
Geel: 2 McWilliams, 1 Ivey, 1 Higgins, 1 Darby, 1 ?
surprising result given both teams playing basically full strength. Is there a replay available anywhere?FRE: 0.0 1.3 1.5 3.5 (23)
WCE: 2.1 4.1 5.2 5.2 (32)
FRE: 1 Runnalls/Houghton, 1 Webb, 1 Stewart
WCE: 2 Gilmore, 1 Bowen, 1 Thomas, 1 Bullas
I missed the first half. Conflicting reports about one of Fremantle's goal kickers.
So what sort of metrics have been used to collect this data ?I have developed the most powerful tool in sports prediction technology since that soccer octopus.
This science-adjacent forecaster, known as the CRAP (Collectivity, Reliability, Accountability and Productivity) system, analyses four weighted categories and represents each team’s premiership chances in a single percentage figure.
CRAP says Melbourne have a 12.16% chance of winning the flag, the highest in the league. They are closely followed by North Melbourne (12.13%), who might’ve been runaway favourites if not for a sub-par Accountability rating.
Although many confused pundits claim Brisbane’s teamwork and tactics are the foundation of their success, CRAP has assigned the Lions an underwhelming 1.68 Collectivity rating, suggesting a smaller-than-average arsenal of exceptional playmakers are responsible for their high Productivity ranking.
Other noted notables include some well-regarded teams, like Adelaide and Collingwood, ranking low in Reliability because of poor injury track records to key players.
This research is based on eighty bushels of data, and any questioning of the findings is forbidden.
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CRAP PER (Player Exquisiteness Receptor), an extension of CRAP, has decided Dana Hooker (8.57%) is the most likely League B&F winner, followed by Monique Conti (7.84%). It also indicates Alyssa Bannan (15.25%) is the most likely player to take out the Rising Star award, while Danielle Ponter (27.91%) is a certainty to win the Vescio Medal.
C - Player disposals/goals/contested marks/etc in relation to league averageSo what sort of metrics have been used to collect this data ?
Love your work btw, this gets me very excited.
That's amazing, nice work. If you don't mind sharing/Pm'ing the spreadsheets I'd be super interested.C - Player disposals/goals/contested marks/etc in relation to league average
R - Games missed due to injury
A - Tackles, intercept possessions, R50s vs points conceded
P - Clearances won, metres gained, I50s vs points scored
C, A and P weighted for performance against assessed quality of opposition, recency and list changes from previous years (including presumed changes, i.e. Patrikios unavailable). R weighted for quality of assessed injured player.
For the League B&F, I took the top ~50 still-active vote-getters, and measured how they poll (how often/many votes they get in wins/losses) vs how their team is predicted to perform (derived from the CRAP system). I also added player's individual R rating, but changed that to "games missed due to football-related injury and suspension"... ensuring Hooker would rank first, rather than somebody who has already won it before because that would be boring (though it's also a logical modification). Similar process was used for leading goal-kicker.
For the Rising Star, I just measured the characteristics of eligible nominees against the average characteristics of past winners. Bannan (19y8m, high draft pick, Victorian club with high CRAP) fit the bill in most areas.