Vic Predict the 2026 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

With Victorians due to go to the polls in little over a year from now, predict how do you think the 2026 Victorian State Election will pan out.

Will the Coalition return to government on the back of a major crime wave?

Or could Labor cling on to power...with a little help from Daniel Andrews?

Discuss.

 

[Northalives]

The ALP will win again.

 

[The Punter]

As of now, the Parliamentary Liberal Party have shown no propensity for doing the things necessary to win and abandoning doing the things that prevent victory.

 

[Gralin]

Labor win because the libs are not a valid opposition and the greens aren't either

 

[Fire]

As of now, the Parliamentary Liberal Party have shown no propensity for doing the things necessary to win and abandoning doing the things that prevent victory.

I know you're a party man, but I am left wondering at what point you question associating yourself with a political organisation that seemingly has nothing in common with your own political alignment anymore.

 

[The Punter]

I know you're a party man, but I am left wondering at what point you question associating yourself with a political organisation that seemingly has nothing in common with your own political alignment anymore.

I'm a little less involved now that I was earlier in the year, but my quoted comment was more about commitment to winning.

The Victorian offering on policies is light on the ground right now, but I don't have too much of an issue with what's listed here.

https://vic.liberal.org.au/policies

The policy offering has to broaden and pretty quickly IMO.

My main policy disappointment is the current reverting back to old themes on planning which will exacerbate the housing affordability crisis.

 

[geoffjennings79]

LNP need to win 16 seats. I can't see how/where that will happen.

I suspect they will take some off the ALP, but the actual number will be interesting. 5 or less and 2030 will still be a major challenge as well. Closer to 10, and there will be far more pressure in the next parliament on the ALP, but would the LNP be able to maintain the pressure for a full term, or will the internal bickering continue... with possibly another leadership challenge/change? And would a significant majority reduction encourage a Ben Carroll to challenge Allan?

 

[Jascave]

The biggest question mark for the Liberals is would they be able to maintain unity and discipline in the lead up to 2026, because there is the possibility of John Pesutto might want to challenge Brad Battin for the leadership.

And then, there’s the small matter of Moira Deeming. Let’s say if the Coalition wins the election, you can expect Deeming to demand a senior position in the Cabinet (ie Treasurer, Attorney General).

 

[Not Important]

fair way off yet. a lot can happen in the meantime. but a labor victory would be an enormous achievement for allan, given what she inherited

 

[The Punter]

The biggest question mark for the Liberals is would they be able to maintain unity and discipline in the lead up to 2026, because there is the possibility of John Pesutto might want to challenge Brad Battin for the leadership.

And then, there’s the small matter of Moira Deeming. Let’s say if the Coalition wins the election, you can expect Deeming to demand a senior position in the Cabinet (ie Treasurer, Attorney General).

This is fantastical even by your standards. Deeming would probably want a social portfolio such as health or education. She's not a lawyer and would not be so disconnected from reality to demand the Treasury.

And I think JP is done with leadership. With Michael O'Brien retiring, he's the lead candidate to be A-G in a Battin Government.

 

[Jascave]

Any chance of the Coalition taking a leaf out of US President Donald Trump’s playbook and use the terms ‘Make Victoria Great Again’ (MVGA) as its 2026 Victorian election campaign slogan?

 

[Jascave]

I'm a little less involved now that I was earlier in the year, but my quoted comment was more about commitment to winning.

The Victorian offering on policies is light on the ground right now, but I don't have too much of an issue with what's listed here.

https://vic.liberal.org.au/policies

The policy offering has to broaden and pretty quickly IMO.

My main policy disappointment is the current reverting back to old themes on planning which will exacerbate the housing affordability crisis.

It's not just law and order the Liberals have to deal with. Has anyone forgotten the Victorian economy? Let's say if the Coalition wins power in the 2026 Victorian election, how long would it take for them to get the budget back into surplus?

 

[nut]

We will see crime on every front page of the HS 6 months leading up to the election

 

[The Punter]

It's not just law and order the Liberals have to deal with. Has anyone forgotten the Victorian economy? Let's say if the Coalition wins power in the 2026 Victorian election, how long would it take for them to get the budget back into surplus?

The budget and the economy are not the same thing, although related. There is not enough detail on how the budget would be returned to surplus, but I think the idea is to grow the private aspect of the economy and that will increase revenue without increasing tax rates.

 

[The Punter]

We will see crime on every front page of the HS 6 months leading up to the election

Isn't this the case already?

 

[nut]

Isn't this the case already?

This is the only play book the conservative media has to help the LNP.
They did it in the NT- crime no change
They did it in QLD- crime still there

 

[Saint]

The budget and the economy are not the same thing, although related. There is not enough detail on how the budget would be returned to surplus, but I think the idea is to grow the private aspect of the economy and that will increase revenue without increasing tax rates.

The problem as I see it is three-fold:

Vague ideas of trickle-down economics don't work in a state where most people know better, or at least want to see more detail. This works in Qld, and on Sky, but not in Vic.

The other problems, like crime, again the Libs don't have a proven solution. They'll propose harsher imprisonment for kids, which studies show will make crime worse over time. Or more police on "the beat" which also won't prevent crime.

Then there are the policy platforms the party comes up with which are solutions without a problem. Mostly from the extreme wing of the party, they propose things that nobody wants (electoral poison) which will solve only a perceived problem for a small number of people. These don't make the website, but the extremists in the party, particularly the outer-suburban seats, nominate people with strange ideas who can't keep them to themselves.

Victorians understand that the solution to these problems is difficult and won't fall for one-line sloganeering.

If the budget remains semi-respectable, then they'll retain comfortably, probably lose a couple of seats in both houses. I don't think the housing crisis will be bad enough to blame the Vic Govt, when the blame for that seems mostly directed at the Federal Govt. But the problems are being caused at all levels of Govt and the Victorian state Govt is doing the most of any State Govt to fix it.

 

[The Punter]

The problem as I see it is three-fold:

Vague ideas of trickle-down economics don't work in a state where most people know better, or at least want to see more detail. This works in Qld, and on Sky, but not in Vic.

The other problems, like crime, again the Libs don't have a proven solution. They'll propose harsher imprisonment for kids, which studies show will make crime worse over time. Or more police on "the beat" which also won't prevent crime.

Then there are the policy platforms the party comes up with which are solutions without a problem. Mostly from the extreme wing of the party, they propose things that nobody wants (electoral poison) which will solve only a perceived problem for a small number of people. These don't make the website, but the extremists in the party, particularly the outer-suburban seats, nominate people with strange ideas who can't keep them to themselves.

Victorians understand that the solution to these problems is difficult and won't fall for one-line sloganeering.

If the budget remains semi-respectable, then they'll retain comfortably, probably lose a couple of seats in both houses. I don't think the housing crisis will be bad enough to blame the Vic Govt, when the blame for that seems mostly directed at the Federal Govt. But the problems are being caused at all levels of Govt and the Victorian state Govt is doing the most of any State Govt to fix it.

I mean, the budget isn't semi-respectable now. What has changed is that governments are able to shield the public from the side-effects of budget deficits much better now. The late-1980s in Victoria everyone felt the effects. Not so much now, especially with so many people directly employed through the public sector (which has included myself at various times).

The current proposals from the Liberals on crime are not only harsher punishments, as the link I provided demonstrated.

Today's regular Thursday op ed in The Age calls into focus a lack of focus on economic issues from the current Opposition Leader. I doubt the anti-Emergency Services Levy stuff will cut through as the increases are minimal for most. Mr Battin just needs to trust his team more, and if he doesn't trust people in key economic portfolios, then he needs spokespeople in those portfolios he does trust.

But the policy development issue is well entrenched. There is a restlessness from the membership on policy from all directions. Hardly anyone is happy inside the membership on this issue, but all for different reasons.

 

[Saint]

I mean, the budget isn't semi-respectable now. What has changed is that governments are able to shield the public from the side-effects of budget deficits much better now. The late-1980s in Victoria everyone felt the effects. Not so much now, especially with so many people directly employed through the public sector (which has included myself at various times).

The current proposals from the Liberals on crime are not only harsher punishments, as the link I provided demonstrated.

Today's regular Thursday op ed in The Age calls into focus a lack of focus on economic issues from the current Opposition Leader. I doubt the anti-Emergency Services Levy stuff will cut through as the increases are minimal for most. Mr Battin just needs to trust his team more, and if he doesn't trust people in key economic portfolios, then he needs spokespeople in those portfolios he does trust.

But the policy development issue is well entrenched. There is a restlessness from the membership on policy from all directions. Hardly anyone is happy inside the membership on this issue, but all for different reasons.

Reading the policies.
They plan to scrap the following taxes:
Stamp Duty on property under $1m
Short stay Levy (Airbnb tax)
Emergency Services Property Levy
Payroll Tax on private schools
Payroll Tax on Health providers

And Commits to no new taxes.

And they're going to take this what, $1bn(??) worth of tax cuts to an election where their biggest attack will be the state of the budget?

The problem definition and the solution don't match up. Dutton tried the same thing and said he'd find "efficiencies", but we all know that's just code for "sack staff and hire consultants".

The crime policies don't look too dissimilar from what the ALP is doing (you were right, I was wrong). I assumed they would be proposing tougher sentencing because it's all I see and hear from Boomer discussions about crime. I think by election time, they'll have started ringing that bell.

 

[The Punter]

Reading the policies.
They plan to scrap the following taxes:
Stamp Duty on property under $1m
Short stay Levy (Airbnb tax)
Emergency Services Property Levy
Payroll Tax on private schools
Payroll Tax on Health providers

And Commits to no new taxes.

And they're going to take this what, $1bn(??) worth of tax cuts to an election where their biggest attack will be the state of the budget?

The problem definition and the solution don't match up. Dutton tried the same thing and said he'd find "efficiencies", but we all know that's just code for "sack staff and hire consultants".

The crime policies don't look too dissimilar from what the ALP is doing (you were right, I was wrong). I assumed they would be proposing tougher sentencing because it's all I see and hear from Boomer discussions about crime. I think by election time, they'll have started ringing that bell.

Battin's a bit of a free thinker in this regard: I would be surprised if we don't have a law and order policy platform that doesn't include some "prevent at the source" policies that won't be on the "tougher sentencing" side of the fence. But there will be that as well.

As I mentioned in one of my posts earlier, the tax reduction and return the budget to surplus requires some explanation not yet forthcoming. I am sure that Labor will frame this as cuts to essential services, but this can be addressed with specificity. If it were me, I would be talking about dramatically reducing the number of high paid executives in the public service with no cuts below EL1. This government has vastly expanded the number of executives in the VPS, working jobs paying over $200,000 per annum, taking meetings and approving briefs and providing little service to the public. Their salaries are all recurring expenditure too. The government could save significant money by committing to these cuts.

 

[aCunningPlan]

Victorian Labor is vulnerable in the sense that the membership is feeling a bit flat. The last few elections there was enough energy to mobilise the campaign machine to win the vote. Regional cities will still lean Labor at the polls but there's enough concern about the emergency services levy, the demonisation of Allan, and realisation that there are a few average MLA's that coasting along will see a real slide backwards.

A replacement for Cheeseman needs to be sorted out quickly, Addison needs to go, and Allan needs to stay in the chair long enough to absorb all the bad blood coming the government's way then step aside for a fresh face early next year. Lister's election in Werribee showed quality local candidates can withstand the right-wing media machine bearing down on Labor heartland, there really can't be any passengers this time around.

They will have some big wins this year with the opening of the Metro Tunnel and the West Gate Tunnel, so they can build some momentum off that.

 

[Gough]

With the retiring Labor MPs it looks like if they can win they election in footy terms they'll get a good chance to refresh their list without necessarily having to slide down the ladder.

 

[The Punter]

With the retiring Labor MPs it looks like if they can win they election in footy terms they'll get a good chance to refresh their list without necessarily having to slide down the ladder.

Jackson Taylor in Bayswater is a loss, he is young and industrious. If the Libs win one seat in the West, it will be Melton.

 

[Jascave]

The biggest challenges for Brad Battin would be not only how to win 16 seats from Labor in order to regain government, but also how to keep his team focused and united, because knowing the history of the Liberals, it will take one spark to unleash civil war within the party-Deeming v Pesutto and Wilson v Newbury are two in-house battles that could spill over into the election campaign. And Labor could take full advantage of the in-fighting and give themselves 4 more years of governing Victoria.

 

[Sttew]

fair way off yet. a lot can happen in the meantime. but a labor victory would be an enormous achievement for allan, given what she inherited

and given her underwhelming performance. Jacinta is not an inspiring leader. For all his faults, Andrews was an imposing leader. Allan is the opposite. She is quick to boast about Labor achievements, but way too slow to address burning issues e.g., crime, corruption etc. Too often she has used the "I can't comment on something XX is dealing with" even if government policy was responsible for the decision making process.

The recent NIMBY petition signed by the Police Minister highlights her lack of leadership. When housing is front and centre of Labor's plans, to have a minister contradict Allan and reject a housing proposal in his neighbourhood tells you not everyone is on the same page.

Unless LNP radically overhaul, Labor cannot lose. They don't deserve to win, but, they can thank the monumental mess that the LNP is in.