Vic Predict the 2026 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

Let's say if the Coalition won power in 2026, and as they are getting ready to govern, a major pandemic hits Australia which is 1000% worse than COVID-19 in 2020. Now if Brad Battin was Premier, what does he do-listen to the Chief Health Officer's advice and shut down Victoria like what Dan Andrews did when he was Premier in the early days of the COVID pandemic when he heeded advice from the then CHO Brett Sutton and locked down Victoria; or does Battin ignores the advice and claim that fighting crime is far more important than a major health crisis which could break down Victoria's health system altogether?

 

[Sttew]

Let's say if the Coalition won power in 2026, and as they are getting ready to govern, a major pandemic hits Australia which is 1000% worse than COVID-19 in 2020. Now if Brad Battin was Premier, what does he do-listen to the Chief Health Officer's advice and shut down Victoria like what Dan Andrews did when he was Premier in the early days of the COVID pandemic when he heeded advice from the then CHO Brett Sutton and locked down Victoria; or does Battin ignores the advice and claim that fighting crime is far more important than a major health crisis which could break down Victoria's health system altogether?

If a new pandemic hit and was 1000 times worse than Covid19 then 20,000,000 could conceivably die in Australia alone. It would be an absolute unprecedented catastrophe globally.

How would Jacinta handle it? Would she deny there was a problem, would she tell Victorians it would be inappropriate for her to make any comment while Health authorities were investigating, would she go to ground, or would she keep bragging we have the toughest bail laws in the country?

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

This is the only play book the conservative media has to help the LNP.
They did it in the NT- crime no change
They did it in QLD- crime still there

Because there not attacking the root cause. Until you do that the cycle repeats itself.

 

[The Punter]

Let's say if the Coalition won power in 2026, and as they are getting ready to govern, a major pandemic hits Australia which is 1000% worse than COVID-19 in 2020. Now if Brad Battin was Premier, what does he do-listen to the Chief Health Officer's advice and shut down Victoria like what Dan Andrews did when he was Premier in the early days of the COVID pandemic when he heeded advice from the then CHO Brett Sutton and locked down Victoria; or does Battin ignores the advice and claim that fighting crime is far more important than a major health crisis which could break down Victoria's health system altogether?

Considering the legislation changed how this was handled in 2021, either government would listen to advice and themselves make the decision they see fit.

 

[Jascave]

Next time when a) you're watching a livestream of State Parliament or b) attending Parliament QT itself, take careful note of the backbenchers absent at either the govenment side or the oppositon end of the Legislative Assembly who are absent when Jacinta Allen or Brad Battin is speaking-not because they have gone to the toilet or bored with proceedings, but they are quietly doing the numbers for a leadership coup.

 

[Jascave]

Can we expect to see the 'teals'/independents (ie Climate 200, 'Voices of (insert suburb name here)') candidates win some seats at next year's state election?

 

[Saint]

Can we expect to see the 'teals'/independents (ie Climate 200, 'Voices of (insert suburb name here)') candidates win some seats at next year's state election?

There's just not the incentive for qualified people to give up careers to be State MLCs or MLAs.

Who wants to fork out $50k worth of time and energy for a 50-50 chance or worse at a job paying $212k which you have to re-apply for every 4 years?

You do get an extra $200k to be a Minister, $18k as shadow, but that's not realistic for a teal or an independent.

It's why it only really pays if you're a party apparatchik, because they're the ones who get the Ministerial jobs and safe seats.

 

[Jascave]

If Labor were able to win next year's Victorian state election, where would this election triumph rank in terms of famous election victories in ALP's history, whether at state or federal level?

 

[Chadwiko]

If Labor were able to win next year's Victorian state election, where would this election triumph rank in terms of famous election victories in ALP's history, whether at state or federal level?

I mean, the streak would be impressive. But I don't think it would be a "famous ALP victory". It's less a win for Labor and more another loss for the Liberals who are utterly unprofessional and unelectable in Victoria.

They're a dying party.

 

[Jascave]

I mean, the streak would be impressive. But I don't think it would be a "famous ALP victory". It's less a win for Labor and more another loss for the Liberals who are utterly unprofessional and unelectable in Victoria.

They're a dying party.

When you consider what Jacinta Allen is up against-escaping from the shadows of her predecessor Daniel Andrews; an escalation of the crime crisis that isn’t going away anytime soon; not just facing the Coalition but with the backing of Sky News, Herald Sun, the Australian, news.com.au, Nine, 3AW, it would be one of the extraordinary elections wins in Victorian political history.

 

[RedOrWhite]

When you consider what Jacinta Allen is up against-escaping from the shadows of her predecessor Daniel Andrews; an escalation of the crime crisis that isn’t going away anytime soon; not just facing the Coalition but with the backing of Sky News, Herald Sun, the Australian, news.com.au, Nine, 3AW, it would be one of the extraordinary elections wins in Victorian political history.

If anything it would ram home the lessening influence of MSM if Labor gets up again, which despite the many flaws of this Labor Govt, highlights how lowly the Vic Libs are rated by most of the electorate.

 

[Cleavy]

When you consider what Jacinta Allen is up against-escaping from the shadows of her predecessor Daniel Andrews; an escalation of the crime crisis that isn’t going away anytime soon; not just facing the Coalition but with the backing of Sky News, Herald Sun, the Australian, news.com.au, Nine, 3AW, it would be one of the extraordinary elections wins in Victorian political history.

we already know Victorians are stupid, we just don't know how stupid...

 

[Harro59]

The Liberals will not win, can't win until the chosen one has returned.

And we all know that he is Tim Smith.....

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

When you consider what Jacinta Allen is up against-escaping from the shadows of her predecessor Daniel Andrews; an escalation of the crime crisis that isn’t going away anytime soon; not just facing the Coalition but with the backing of Sky News, Herald Sun, the Australian, news.com.au, Nine, 3AW, it would be one of the extraordinary elections wins in Victorian political history.

Only an increased majority would make it (arguably) more extraordinary than Andrews himself practically doing that last time: the post-COVID election, the same criticism around the Suburban Rail Loop and Guy and the Coalition made zero ground.

No-one's talking about the Commonwealth Games fiasco anymore. The Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel will have been opened for nearly a year. The North East Link will be in its home stretch. Despite the very reasonable (in my opinion) criticism of SRL, it's a proven vote winner in the SRL East seats, both in State and Federal elections.

Are the (completely dysfunctional) Libs turning 16 seats on a "crime wave"? I seriously doubt it.

 

[Jascave]

Only an increased majority would make it (arguably) more extraordinary than Andrews himself practically doing that last time: the post-COVID election, the same criticism around the Suburban Rail Loop and Guy and the Coalition made zero ground.

No-one's talking about the Commonwealth Games fiasco anymore. The Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel will have been opened for nearly a year. The North East Link will be in its home stretch. Despite the very reasonable (in my opinion) criticism of SRL, it's a proven vote winner in the SRL East seats, both in State and Federal elections.

Are the (completely dysfunctional) Libs turning 16 seats on a "crime wave"? I seriously doubt it.

The Liberals tried the ‘crime wave’ tactic in the lead up to the 2018 Victorian election and it backfired big time. They are doing the same thing again heading into the 2026 election, so how can they be sure it would work this time around?

 

[pazza]

Labor could run John Setka as Premier and win easily. That's how bad the Coalition are here. And the Greens look set to win even more seats.

 

[Jascave]

Is there a website where you can predict an election result in Australia (ie state or federal) like in the US, where there is a website called 'race to 276' in which the user can project the 2028 US Presidential election featuring President Donald Trump (if he decides to go for an unprecented third term in office) against whoever the Democrats are likely to put up against between now and the 2028 election?

 

[hamohawk1]

When was the last time the libs at state or even federally trotted out a new/ fresh young (under 40) candidate who didnt just seem like a privilidged snob. It still has me baffled how the libs could lose this.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

When was the last time the libs at state or even federally trotted out a new/ fresh young (under 40) candidate who didnt just seem like a privilidged snob. It still has me baffled how the libs could lose this.

Groth is the smoky, Familiar face because of his sporting background and has reasonable positions on alot of issues. The more experience he gains being a politician the better and more polished he will get. Does he have enough time to win over the party and the electorate is the big question but he's odds on to be the next leader 1 way or the other.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Groth is the smoky, Familiar face because of his sporting background and has reasonable positions on alot of issues. The more experience he gains being a politician the better and more polished he will get. Does he have enough time to win over the party and the electorate is the big question but he's odds on to be the next leader 1 way or the other.

Isn't his own party trying to white-ant him by leaking scandals to News Ltd every chance they get?

An indication that it would be a monumental challenge for anybody in the party to lead and unite this mob.

 

[Jascave]

Seeing we are 12 months out from the state election, give us your predictions of:

1) Who'll win the most number of seats in the lower house;
2) Who'll gain control of the upper house;
3) What time will the election result be called on election night.