Predict the bottom four at the end of 2018

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Sweet Jesus, Nov 16, 2017.

Put it out there
?

Which teams will be in the bottom four at the end of 2018?

This poll will close on May 16, 2018 at 12:58 AM.
  1. Adelaide

    11 vote(s)
    2.2%
  2. Brisbane

    304 vote(s)
    59.8%
  3. Carlton

    349 vote(s)
    68.7%
  4. Collingwood

    78 vote(s)
    15.4%
  5. Essendon

    13 vote(s)
    2.6%
  6. Fremantle

    121 vote(s)
    23.8%
  7. Geelong

    10 vote(s)
    2.0%
  8. Gold Coast

    422 vote(s)
    83.1%
  9. GWS

    6 vote(s)
    1.2%
  10. Hawthorn

    63 vote(s)
    12.4%
  11. Melbourne

    5 vote(s)
    1.0%
  12. North Melbourne

    432 vote(s)
    85.0%
  13. Port Adelaide

    8 vote(s)
    1.6%
  14. Richmond

    22 vote(s)
    4.3%
  15. St Kilda

    29 vote(s)
    5.7%
  16. Sydney

    9 vote(s)
    1.8%
  17. West Coast

    69 vote(s)
    13.6%
  18. Bulldogs

    16 vote(s)
    3.1%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Sweet Jesus

    Sweet Jesus Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
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    Self-explanatory. I wonder how many dinguses would have tipped Richmond had this thread been around 12 months ago. Probably quite a few.

    I'm going for GC, North, Brisbane and Carlton. Supremely unimaginative, right?
     

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  2. donkeypunchd

    donkeypunchd All Australian

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    Gonna go out on a limb here and say the Saints, they lost a lot of class and experience with their retirements at the end of this year and are relying on the draft to make good on their losses. McCartin doesn't look the goods yet to step into Riewoldt's shoes, their midfield lacks polish and their game plan is one dimensional, if the opposition can counter their pace effectively they've nothing to fall back on.
     
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  3. Frank Gallagher

    Frank Gallagher A Seasoned Campaigner.

    Collingwood
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    Carlton look like a shoe in now they've lost Docherty for a year, so Brisbane Carlton North and Hawthorn for mine in no particular order.

    Other chances are Collingwood - Freo - GC.
     
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  4. aussierulesrules

    aussierulesrules Brownlow Medallist

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    Neither Riewoldt nor Montagna came top 10 in our B&F this year (Nick didn't even finish top 15, which tells you how far off his best he was- last year he came 3rd and got 19 Brownlow votes!), and between them they received just a paltry 5 of the 235 coaches votes that those from our team were awarded in our last 10 wins.

    So they were clearly well short of their highly influential best of years past, and as such it's entirely possible that we were more adversely affected by their drop off this year than we will be for losing them altogether for next year.

    By the end of the year Joey was already out of the team (we won two of our last 5 without him, and lost another in the last few seconds) and Nick was pretty much cooked.

    As for "replacing them", David Armitage played just 2 games for the year, so he could replace one of them, if he's back to full fitness, McCartin played just 5, and the very talented Nathan Freeman and Hugh Goddard didn't play a game between them, so those 4 could potentially all be like "new recruits", fitness pending. On top of whoever we get with picks 7 and 8 in the draft, who could be a fair chance of playing plenty in 2018.

    Then we've got a huge chunk of our list who are 24yo and under and likely to be better for having another preseason under their belts, and a bunch of our 25yo and over group who would be looking to bounce back from their disappointing seasons this year.

    So things would have to go pretty disastrously for us to drop back to the bottom 4, even with our very difficult draw.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2017
  5. blitzer

    blitzer Premiership Player

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    North, Carlton and Gold Coast are all extremely likely.

    Most people would pick Brisbane as the 4th team but I believe they are on the up and will rise above bottom 4 this year. Personally I reckon it will be a dark horse so I've gone Hawthorn but really a lot of teams could finish in that spot with a bad injury run.
     
  6. citizen-erased

    citizen-erased Brownlow Medallist

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    Three seem obvious enough in north, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Just where they are at for the moment, though the lions may surprise.

    I reluctantly put Carlton in despite building a good young list. It's still young, have lost Gibbs and docherty, and I think the 2 WA teams (who I'm predicting low finishes for) will still have that home town edge to keep them out of the bottom 4.
     
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  7. FlowersByIrene

    FlowersByIrene Brownlow Medallist

    Carlton
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    North and Gold Coast are locks.

    Docherty out hurts the blues but i wouldnt guarentee it. Cant tell you the remaining two. Will be an interesting year.
     
    exxcessivve likes this.
  8. Power Raid

    Power Raid Hall of Famer

    Port Adelaide
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    north
    GC
    with two of the hawks, blues or my beloved freo
     
  9. Great8

    Great8 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Freo
    Gold Coast
    North
    Carlton
     
  10. Drewie11

    Drewie11 Club Legend

    Adelaide
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    18th Brisbane
    17th Carlton
    16th Gold Coast
    15th North Melbourne
     
  11. Strange Cat

    Strange Cat Club Legend

    Geelong
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    CARLTON
    Collingwood
    Hawks
    Brisbane
     

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  12. bugalugs213

    bugalugs213 Premiership Player

    Hawthorn
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    Brisbane
    North
    Carlton
    West coast
     
  13. BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!

    BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!! Premium Gold

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    15 - Carlton
    16 - Brisbane
    17 - North
    18 - Gold Coast
     
  14. Dez!

    Dez! Brownlow Medallist

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    I would guarantee it, I don't see a team who turned over 13 players making any strides on the W/L column the next season.

    You've lost Gibbs who played very well last year and added potential to your midfield to replace him, which is an unknown (obviously made the right move but a step backwards to go two steps forward in the future)

    Losing Docherty is a big big blow.

    Your forward line is still potential and not yet experienced enough to make a consistent impact.

    Backline is pretty good but the shallow midfield stocks the Blues currently possess isn't going to lend itself to winning games, the right moves were made during the trade period but they weren't made looking for immediate improvement in 2018.

    The Blues are still gathering as much talent as they can, they aren't going to leave the bottom 4 next year.
     
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  15. sobrave

    sobrave Premiership Player

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    Richmond a sneaky chance
     
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  16. demondavey

    demondavey Brownlow Medallist

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    So they're dinguses because they picked Richmond 12 months ago when absolutely everyone would've gone with them for the obvious reasons?
     
  17. demondavey

    demondavey Brownlow Medallist

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    It'd be pretty safe to pick GC, Brisbane, North and Carlton. I think that out of those 4 probably 3 would be there, I can however see North or Brisbane climbing out at the expense of another team that may surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if West Coast or Hawthorn had a shocker in 2018.
     
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  18. demondavey

    demondavey Brownlow Medallist

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    Haven't seen your draw but assume it would be decent? I don't think the Saints will be bottom 4, I actually think they may finish anywhere between 8-11.
     
    sonnywalters likes this.
  19. PowerForGood

    PowerForGood Brownlow Medallist

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    Injuries, suspensions, fixture and umpiring in close games.








    Sorry, that's the why, not the who.
     
  20. Rance2Mewtwo

    Rance2Mewtwo Club Legend

    Richmond
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    I think the Saints will be pushing top 4, they’re hard to read though.
     
  21. Milanista28

    Milanista28 Norm Smith Medallist

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    If this Raikkonen kid is as good as they say, Finishing last would be Ok.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2017
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  22. DEVO

    DEVO Norm Smith Medallist

    North Melbourne
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    18th Richmond
    17th Carlton
    16th Gold Coast
    15th Brisbane
     
  23. The_torpedo

    The_torpedo Team Captain

    Western Bulldogs
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    FTFY ;)
     
  24. WilloTree

    WilloTree Club Legend

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    That would be OK with me as well.
     
  25. Craze

    Craze Club Legend

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    Fair call. I saw some bad signs in the last five minutes of the granny when Adelaide started to get on top (and kept Richmond scoreless)