Predict the bottom four at the end of 2018

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Sweet Jesus, Nov 16, 2017.

?

Which teams will be in the bottom four at the end of 2018?

Poll closed May 16, 2018.
  1. Adelaide

    14 vote(s)
    1.6%
  2. Brisbane

    531 vote(s)
    60.4%
  3. Carlton

    603 vote(s)
    68.6%
  4. Collingwood

    144 vote(s)
    16.4%
  5. Essendon

    26 vote(s)
    3.0%
  6. Fremantle

    208 vote(s)
    23.7%
  7. Geelong

    17 vote(s)
    1.9%
  8. Gold Coast

    698 vote(s)
    79.4%
  9. GWS

    9 vote(s)
    1.0%
  10. Hawthorn

    98 vote(s)
    11.1%
  11. Melbourne

    17 vote(s)
    1.9%
  12. North Melbourne

    702 vote(s)
    79.9%
  13. Port Adelaide

    16 vote(s)
    1.8%
  14. Richmond

    27 vote(s)
    3.1%
  15. St Kilda

    105 vote(s)
    11.9%
  16. Sydney

    13 vote(s)
    1.5%
  17. West Coast

    110 vote(s)
    12.5%
  18. Bulldogs

    61 vote(s)
    6.9%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Sweet Jesus

    Sweet Jesus Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Posts:
    9,984
    Location:
    Hong Kong
    Self-explanatory. I wonder how many dinguses would have tipped Richmond had this thread been around 12 months ago. Probably quite a few.

    I'm going for GC, North, Brisbane and Carlton. Supremely unimaginative, right?
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. donkeypunchd

    donkeypunchd Club Legend

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2016
    Posts:
    1,257
    Gonna go out on a limb here and say the Saints, they lost a lot of class and experience with their retirements at the end of this year and are relying on the draft to make good on their losses. McCartin doesn't look the goods yet to step into Riewoldt's shoes, their midfield lacks polish and their game plan is one dimensional, if the opposition can counter their pace effectively they've nothing to fall back on.
     
    Tandy, Roobs321, herculez09 and 4 others like this.
  3. Frank Gallagher

    Frank Gallagher Blaisee & Rezza Tiger, Tic Toc!

    Collingwood
    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2016
    Posts:
    7,397
    Carlton look like a shoe in now they've lost Docherty for a year, so Brisbane Carlton North and Hawthorn for mine in no particular order.

    Other chances are Collingwood - Freo - GC.
     
    JVseven, sonnywalters and W. Smithers like this.
  4. aussierulesrules

    aussierulesrules Brownlow Medallist

    St Kilda
    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2011
    Posts:
    25,429
    Location:
    Heaven. I mean Victoria.
    Neither Riewoldt nor Montagna came top 10 in our B&F this year (Nick didn't even finish top 15, which tells you how far off his best he was- last year he came 3rd and got 19 Brownlow votes!), and between them they received just a paltry 5 of the 235 coaches votes that those from our team were awarded in our last 10 wins.

    So they were clearly well short of their highly influential best of years past, and as such it's entirely possible that we were more adversely affected by their drop off this year than we will be for losing them altogether for next year.

    By the end of the year Joey was already out of the team (we won two of our last 5 without him, and lost another in the last few seconds) and Nick was pretty much cooked.

    As for "replacing them", David Armitage played just 2 games for the year, so he could replace one of them, if he's back to full fitness, McCartin played just 5, and the very talented Nathan Freeman and Hugh Goddard didn't play a game between them, so those 4 could potentially all be like "new recruits", fitness pending. On top of whoever we get with picks 7 and 8 in the draft, who could be a fair chance of playing plenty in 2018.

    Then we've got a huge chunk of our list who are 24yo and under and likely to be better for having another preseason under their belts, and a bunch of our 25yo and over group who would be looking to bounce back from their disappointing seasons this year.

    So things would have to go pretty disastrously for us to drop back to the bottom 4, even with our very difficult draw.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2017
  5. blitzer

    blitzer Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2006
    Posts:
    4,788
    Location:
    House
    North, Carlton and Gold Coast are all extremely likely.

    Most people would pick Brisbane as the 4th team but I believe they are on the up and will rise above bottom 4 this year. Personally I reckon it will be a dark horse so I've gone Hawthorn but really a lot of teams could finish in that spot with a bad injury run.
     
  6. citizen-erased

    citizen-erased Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Posts:
    13,130
    Location:
    Victoria
    Three seem obvious enough in north, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Just where they are at for the moment, though the lions may surprise.

    I reluctantly put Carlton in despite building a good young list. It's still young, have lost Gibbs and docherty, and I think the 2 WA teams (who I'm predicting low finishes for) will still have that home town edge to keep them out of the bottom 4.
     
    PrinceCharles likes this.
  7. FlowersByIrene

    FlowersByIrene Brownlow Medallist

    Carlton
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Posts:
    15,583
    Location:
    Perth via Carlton Land
    Other Teams:
    Knicks, Giants, Man U
    North and Gold Coast are locks.

    Docherty out hurts the blues but i wouldnt guarentee it. Cant tell you the remaining two. Will be an interesting year.
     
    Tandy and exxcessivve like this.
  8. Power Raid

    Power Raid TheBrownDog

    Port Adelaide
    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2004
    Posts:
    56,471
    Location:
    West Perth
    north
    GC
    with two of the hawks, blues or my beloved freo
     
  9. Great8

    Great8 Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Posts:
    10,390
    Other Teams:
    Manchester United, Juventus,
    Freo
    Gold Coast
    North
    Carlton
     
    djspank likes this.
  10. Drewie11

    Drewie11 Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2015
    Posts:
    2,690
    18th Brisbane
    17th Carlton
    16th Gold Coast
    15th North Melbourne
     
  11. Strange Cat

    Strange Cat Premium Gold

    Geelong
    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2017
    Posts:
    6,647
    CARLTON
    Collingwood
    Hawks
    Brisbane
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. bugalugs213

    bugalugs213 Premiership Player

    Hawthorn
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Posts:
    3,035
    Brisbane
    North
    Carlton
    West coast
     
    lmach likes this.
  13. BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!

    BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!! Hall of Famer

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2008
    Posts:
    43,499
    Location:
    Melbourne
    15 - Carlton
    16 - Brisbane
    17 - North
    18 - Gold Coast
     
  14. Dez!

    Dez! Brownlow Medallist

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2007
    Posts:
    28,164
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Other Teams:
    Chicago Bulls
    I would guarantee it, I don't see a team who turned over 13 players making any strides on the W/L column the next season.

    You've lost Gibbs who played very well last year and added potential to your midfield to replace him, which is an unknown (obviously made the right move but a step backwards to go two steps forward in the future)

    Losing Docherty is a big big blow.

    Your forward line is still potential and not yet experienced enough to make a consistent impact.

    Backline is pretty good but the shallow midfield stocks the Blues currently possess isn't going to lend itself to winning games, the right moves were made during the trade period but they weren't made looking for immediate improvement in 2018.

    The Blues are still gathering as much talent as they can, they aren't going to leave the bottom 4 next year.
     
    herculez09, Richo83 and PrinceCharles like this.
  15. sobrave

    sobrave Norm Smith Medallist

    Port Adelaide
    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2015
    Posts:
    5,869
    Location:
    Cape Jervis
    Richmond a sneaky chance
     
    hawker5 and wally funk like this.
  16. demondavey

    demondavey Cancelled

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2005
    Posts:
    16,458
    So they're dinguses because they picked Richmond 12 months ago when absolutely everyone would've gone with them for the obvious reasons?
     
  17. demondavey

    demondavey Cancelled

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2005
    Posts:
    16,458
    It'd be pretty safe to pick GC, Brisbane, North and Carlton. I think that out of those 4 probably 3 would be there, I can however see North or Brisbane climbing out at the expense of another team that may surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if West Coast or Hawthorn had a shocker in 2018.
     
    Richo83, exxcessivve and Strange Cat like this.
  18. demondavey

    demondavey Cancelled

    Melbourne
    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2005
    Posts:
    16,458
    Haven't seen your draw but assume it would be decent? I don't think the Saints will be bottom 4, I actually think they may finish anywhere between 8-11.
     
    sonnywalters likes this.
  19. PowerForGood

    PowerForGood Brownlow Medallist

    Port Adelaide
    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2006
    Posts:
    13,964
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Other Teams:
    Liverpool FC
    Injuries, suspensions, fixture and umpiring in close games.








    Sorry, that's the why, not the who.
     
  20. Rance2Mewtwo

    Rance2Mewtwo Cancelled

    Richmond
    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2016
    Posts:
    1,555
    I think the Saints will be pushing top 4, they’re hard to read though.
     
  21. Milanista28

    Milanista28 Norm Smith Medallist

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2014
    Posts:
    9,291
    If this Raikkonen kid is as good as they say, Finishing last would be Ok.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2017
    Richo83 and Shinboner roo like this.
  22. DEVO

    DEVO Norm Smith Medallist

    North Melbourne
    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2000
    Posts:
    8,416
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT, Australia
    Other Teams:
    Eels CUFC RCFC Falcons La Viola LAL
    18th Richmond
    17th Carlton
    16th Gold Coast
    15th Brisbane
     
    Grin and Bolly like this.
  23. The_torpedo

    The_torpedo What the hell should I even put here

    Western Bulldogs
    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2016
    Posts:
    762
    Other Teams:
    Denver Broncos, Lions
    FTFY ;)
     
    AlecDuncan, ferrisb, Richo83 and 17 others like this.
  24. WilloTree

    WilloTree Club Legend

    Fremantle
    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2015
    Posts:
    1,899
    Location:
    Inside 50
    Other Teams:
    Claremont Tigers
    That would be OK with me as well.
     
  25. Craze

    Craze Club Legend

    Richmond
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2013
    Posts:
    1,483
    Other Teams:
    Steelers
    Fair call. I saw some bad signs in the last five minutes of the granny when Adelaide started to get on top (and kept Richmond scoreless)
     

Share This Page