Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Maggie5]

So 'Mafia' Guy quick to try and capitalise on on the blackouts by blaming it on the Hazelwood closure when just like SA it had nothing to do with power generation.

I find it interesting he comes on and blames but doesn't offer any solutions. Abbott playbook but won't work a second time.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

I find it interesting he comes on and blames but doesn't offer any solutions. Abbott playbook but won't work a second time.

He doesn't have the (undeserved) good will of Turnbull so he's left with looking for Zebras.

 

[The Punter]

The Coalition have released 25 policies relating to law and order.

At what point would they meet the required number for "offering solutions"? 100? 5,000?

 

[Maggie5]

The Coalition have released 25 policies relating to law and order.

At what point would they meet the required number for "offering solutions"? 100? 5,000?

Which policy relates to his interview last night on 'blackouts' when blaming Andrews?

 

[The Punter]

Which policy relates to his interview last night on 'blackouts' when blaming Andrews?

Possibly the one on increasing gas supplies. Andrews was blaming Kennett, which is either ancient history or somewhat inaccurate anyway.

By any modern standard, there is plenty of Coalition policy out there. You are free to disagree with it, but it has been released.

 

[Maggie5]

Possibly the one on increasing gas supplies. Andrews was blaming Kennett, which is either ancient history or somewhat inaccurate anyway.

By any modern standard, there is plenty of Coalition policy out there. You are free to disagree with it, but it has been released.

I only asked which policy as you seemed to have the number on Law and Order.
No need for history lesson as have always lived in Victoria and am fully aware but thanks for pointing it out will keep in mind when Guy brings up past history.

 

[Jascave]

The Coalition have released 25 policies relating to law and order.

At what point would they meet the required number for "offering solutions"? 100? 5,000?

If the Coalition thinks the youth crime problem will disappear overnight the minute they have won the state election in November and then be sworn in by the Governor, they are mistaken.

It will take 2-3 terms of office in which to do it. And in retrospect, the root of the problem can be traced back to the previous Coalition government under first Ted Bailleau and then Denis Napthine, and their failure to do anything of note to help the young people of Victoria in regards to jobs and education have created the problem which now befall Daniel Andrews.


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[Patrick Bullet]

If the Coalition thinks the youth crime problem will disappear overnight the minute they have won the state election in November and then be sworn in by the Governor, they are mistaken.

It will take 2-3 terms of office in which to do it. And in retrospect, the root of the problem can be traced back to the previous Coalition government under first Ted Bailleau and then Denis Napthine, and their failure to do anything of note to help the young people of Victoria in regards to jobs and education have created the problem which now befall Daniel Andrews.


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And that'll be because they will no longer be youths in 2-3 terms.

 

[Jascave]

Which Victorian election loss was worse for the Liberals-1999 (under Jeff Kennett); 2002 (under Robert Doyle), or 2014 (under Denis Napthine)?

 

[The Punter]

Which Victorian election loss was worse for the Liberals-1999 (under Jeff Kennett); 2002 (under Robert Doyle), or 2014 (under Denis Napthine)?

From personal experience...

1999 wasn't lost on the night. Remember the Member for Frankston East died, so there was a supplementary election a few weeks later, and a number of in doubt results (Anne Henderson lost Geelong by 14 votes), then the independents had to decide who to support, so it all took a while and that softened the blow. Then we ran around for 3 years like the election result was some sort of computer error.

2014 was coming for a while, but the mood didn't seem so bad. People changed their vote, but they weren't angry.

2002, despite being in opposition, was the most hostile I've seen voters towards the Liberal Party on election day. The leader usually hits the seats which are in play, which will make a difference to the election, where his presence on a polling booth can sway a result. Doyle spent Saturday afternoon visiting booths in places like Caulfield... because they were in play. That night was just awful; grown men crying awful.

So, in this operative's opinion, 2002 takes the cake.

 

[Bombermania]

Which Victorian election loss was worse for the Liberals-1999 (under Jeff Kennett); 2002 (under Robert Doyle), or 2014 (under Denis Napthine)?

I would go with 2002 as it eliminated several senior and mid-level Liberal MP's with government experience.

 

[pazza]

From personal experience...

1999 wasn't lost on the night. Remember the Member for Frankston East died, so there was a supplementary election a few weeks later, and a number of in doubt results (Anne Henderson lost Geelong by 14 votes), then the independents had to decide who to support, so it all took a while and that softened the blow. Then we ran around for 3 years like the election result was some sort of computer error.

2014 was coming for a while, but the mood didn't seem so bad. People changed their vote, but they weren't angry.

2002, despite being in opposition, was the most hostile I've seen voters towards the Liberal Party on election day. The leader usually hits the seats which are in play, which will make a difference to the election, where his presence on a polling booth can sway a result. Doyle spent Saturday afternoon visiting booths in places like Caulfield... because they were in play. That night was just awful; grown men crying awful.

So, in this operative's opinion, 2002 takes the cake.

To me 1999.

But, there had been a fair bit happening in the lead-up which had many showing discontent and disgust. I keep thinking back to the toxic dump debacle in 1997 and 1998. How the people in the electorates of Werribee and Niddrie rallied like never before - the state sore right through the arrogance from that alone.

 

[Bombermania]

To me 1999.

But, there had been a fair bit happening in the lead-up which had many showing discontent and disgust. I keep thinking back to the toxic dump debacle in 1997 and 1998. How the people in the electorates of Werribee and Niddrie rallied like never before - the state sore right through the arrogance from that alone.

That 1997/1998 period Jeff managed to upset practically every key voting block that usually determine Victorian elections so the result wasn't a surprise, you mention the toxic dump, without that the Libs might well have been a chance in Werribee as it was marginal seat area with lots of young families that might otherwise have liked Jeff's style or go getter attitude, the Liberals had been able to win similar seats in Melbourne's South-East like Cranbourne.

 

[Jascave]

From personal experience...

1999 wasn't lost on the night. Remember the Member for Frankston East died, so there was a supplementary election a few weeks later, and a number of in doubt results (Anne Henderson lost Geelong by 14 votes), then the independents had to decide who to support, so it all took a while and that softened the blow. Then we ran around for 3 years like the election result was some sort of computer error.

2014 was coming for a while, but the mood didn't seem so bad. People changed their vote, but they weren't angry.

2002, despite being in opposition, was the most hostile I've seen voters towards the Liberal Party on election day. The leader usually hits the seats which are in play, which will make a difference to the election, where his presence on a polling booth can sway a result. Doyle spent Saturday afternoon visiting booths in places like Caulfield... because they were in play. That night was just awful; grown men crying awful.

So, in this operative's opinion, 2002 takes the cake.

Can still remember watching the news report on the 2002 election results and seeing Labor supporters at their HQ instead of keeping track of the results coming through, preferring instead to watch the live cricket from the WACA (Australia v England), because Labor was so far in front and the result was already a foregone conclusion.


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[Jascave]

Was the 2002 election loss the one where the then Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean was ineligible to run because he failed to update his address due to his old electorate being abolished?


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[The Punter]

Was the 2002 election loss the one where the then Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean was ineligible to run because he failed to update his address due to his old electorate being abolished?

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Yes.

I had a work colleague at the time who was in charge of the accounts. He worked 14 hour days and was extremely work-oriented and conscientious. The only non-work thing he ever spoke to me about was cricket.

Everyone in my office knew I was a Liberal, so the day after the Dean story broke I got to my desk and my accounts colleague, without even a hello, came up to me and said "what is going on with your treasury guy Robert Dean?" The story just cut through. Pretty typical of the mess that was 2002.

 

[Jascave]

If you are looking for a example of how NOT to run a perfect election campaign and to stuff it up completely thereby handing Labor the equivalent of a 10+ goal smashing, the Liberals 2002 election loss is a good place to start. You can bet that Robert Doyle was regretting the day he decided to challenge Denis Napthine for the Liberals leadership when the results came through on the 2002 Victorian election night.


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[roscreasl98]

I find it interesting he comes on and blames but doesn't offer any solutions. Abbott playbook but won't work a second time.

We've never been the same since Kennett completely stuffed this state.

He shut down schools (state ones), tried to shut down unionism, hospitals (not private ones), desecrated the public service (and of course privatised statutory authorities where ever he could to look after his mates).

All he did was give us a Grand Prix......

Labour have lost touch with the common everyday person, they too have sold out to the rich.

Now this states main issues are:
Out of control drug use.
Youth gangs (not allowed to mention Africa though).
Unemployment (although the youth gangs wouldn't be caring about getting a job I'm thinking, they just steal whatever they need).
Terrorism Oz style, eg. Gargasoulis.
Home affordability.
The roads are stuffed......

And we have 2 options in Andrews and Guy.

I'm a Victorian "Get me outta here......"

 

[pazza]

That 1997/1998 period Jeff managed to upset practically every key voting block that usually determine Victorian elections so the result wasn't a surprise, you mention the toxic dump, without that the Libs might well have been a chance in Werribee as it was marginal seat area with lots of young families that might otherwise have liked Jeff's style or go getter attitude, the Liberals had been able to win similar seats in Melbourne's South-East like Cranbourne.

Probably some truth in that..as the member at the time wasn't well liked by too many down here.

However there is now a legacy from that..given who is now the Federal Member for Lalor and Chief Opposition Whip in Canberra!

 

[Hawk Dork]

There goes the Lobsters with Mobsters whole electoral campaign

New official crime figures show Victoria is safer than it has been at any time for the past 10 years.

The Bureau of Statistics count of recorded crime across all states shows just 75,860 offenders in 2016-17, down from a high of 87,695 under the Baillieu government in 2012-13 and the fourth successive annual fall.


http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/v...en-for-10-years-says-abs-20180208-p4yzpj.html

 

[Tiges1229]

There goes the Lobsters with Mobsters whole electoral campaign

New official crime figures show Victoria is safer than it has been at any time for the past 10 years.

The Bureau of Statistics count of recorded crime across all states shows just 75,860 offenders in 2016-17, down from a high of 87,695 under the Baillieu government in 2012-13 and the fourth successive annual fall.


http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/v...en-for-10-years-says-abs-20180208-p4yzpj.html

Not even mentioned in the Murdoch rag .

 

[Groucho]

Not even mentioned in the Murdoch rag .

Strangely,not mentioned on 3AW either.

 

[Jascave]

FYI, here were the newspapers endorsements at the 2014 state election:

The Age: Liberal
Sunday Age: Labor
Herald Sun: Liberal
Sunday Herald Sun: Liberal
Australian Financial Review: Liberal
Australian: Liberal

Even though the major newspapers in Victoria endorsed the Liberals by a 4-1 margin, Labor still won the election.



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[Hawk Dork]

FYI, here were the newspapers endorsements at the 2014 state election:

The Age: Liberal
Sunday Age: Labor
Herald Sun: Liberal
Sunday Herald Sun: Liberal
Australian Financial Review: Liberal
Australian: Liberal

Even though the major newspapers in Victoria endorsed the Liberals by a 4-1 margin, Labor still won the election.



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There is a difference between a one day editorial endorsement and a year long orchestrated law and order policy launch for the guy who eats Lobsters with mobsters.
Then deliberately ignoring the reporting of facts that prove your editorials are just crap

 

[Benny78]

Swing voter in year 2040 be like. "Hi my power bill is 4 thousand dollars, the home is new and I didn't move in until the last month of my billing cycle, I suppose I did use the heater over the past few weeks, is this normal?"

People are just dumb unfortunately.