Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

Want to take a pick on what time ABC Election analyst Antony Green will make the call on the Victorian election results on election night?

I'm picking he will call it at 8:30pm

 

[Groucho]

Looks like a wipe out for Labor! The breakfast guys on AW had a straw poll and it came back 81% Liberal! Sad thing was some people seemed to believe it was true rather than a reflection of the stations demographic.

 

[Darkyprotector]

The amount of spend the axis of evil is committing is mind blowing

Religious freckle mail drops
Sporting shooters
Liberals
I m in the sand belt and 3 seats are in play
Billboards 10 to 1 favour libs

Cars driving around like little buses

It will be interesting the effect of the rail crossings removal on Nepean highway, a safety hazard and long term pain
My thoughts it should have been done under Jeffrey kennett or bailieu , not just BRIGHTON due to teds mummy

Let's hope people recognise that and are not HOODWINKED again

GOD HELP US IF GUY GETS IN

He will make Peter Ryan look honest


THE QUESTION IS WHY DO THEY SPEND SO MUCH

is it due to the ability to rort and make plenty?

Remember the deal signed for a ring road tunnell, booked up machine liabity without project approval forcing the new rail project as we'll
The Easter fiasco and abuse of religion pairing , sneaking in
Certainly not worthy of anything but contempt

 

[Tiges1229]

Looks like a wipe out for Labor! The breakfast guys on AW had a straw poll and it came back 81% Liberal! Sad thing was some people seemed to believe it was true rather than a reflection of the stations demographic.

They might want to tell the bookies then lol Labor $1.30 LNP $3.10

 

[Rob R]

Want to take a pick on what time ABC Election analyst Antony Green will make the call on the Victorian election results on election night?

I'm picking he will call it at 8:30pm

1930. It wont be close.

 

[Pessimistic]

24th November? there's a free opera concert on at the music bowl.

I'm thinking it will be well over before the Fat Lady Sings

 

[Johnny Karate]

This election is a bit strange. Kind of like 2014 I don’t feel the electorate are waiting with baseball bats but if a couple of marginal seats change hands so does the government.

Andrews’ advantages are that he doesn’t have Geoff Shaw, a recent leadership change or policy inertia as albatrosses around his neck. The s**t with EW Link, redshirts and the fierys (& to a lesser extent Skyrail) could’ve sunk him but they have seemed to have weathered that. The government has also got on with its stated policy agenda, like it or hate it.

I’m admittedly biased but Andrews deserves another chance to * it up. The Liberal campaign has been underwhelming so far.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

This election is a bit strange. Kind of like 2014 I don’t feel the electorate are waiting with baseball bats but if a couple of marginal seats change hands so does the government.

Andrews’ advantages are that he doesn’t have Geoff Shaw, a recent leadership change or policy inertia as albatrosses around his neck. The s**t with EW Link, redshirts and the fierys (& to a lesser extent Skyrail) could’ve sunk him but they have seemed to have weathered that. The government has also got on with its stated policy agenda, like it or hate it.

I’m admittedly biased but Andrews deserves another chance to **** it up. The Liberal campaign has been underwhelming so far.

Despite the best efforts of the muppets at the Herald Sun, there isn’t really a compelling reason to change the government, nor a compelling opposition. I doubt we’ll see any major swings and Labor should be returned.

Looks like a wipe out for Labor! The breakfast guys on AW had a straw poll and it came back 81% Liberal! Sad thing was some people seemed to believe it was true rather than a reflection of the stations demographic.

Yeah, newsflash hey: 55+ voters will vote conservative. More at 11.

 

[AM]

I see the shooters party are attempting to make a presence . Who'd have thought they would be supporting the Liberals. Surprise! Surprise!

Fortunately their advertisements are amateurish rubbish.

 

[GreatBradScott]

I get the pace of modern life, but for election nerds here, if yesterdays pre-poll numbers are to be sustained, something like nearly 70% of people will have voted before election day.

Fascinating.

 

[Pessimistic]

A recent British study put the average age which voters switch conservative is about 48

Not to say that age will persist in future elections

 

[Johnny Karate]

A recent British study put the average age which voters switch conservative is about 48

Not to say that age will persist in future elections

I’d be interested to hear from people who have switched and the reasons why. I’m 15 years away (from 48) and I’m probably more conservative than I was 10 years ago, I still vote ALP and don’t see myself voting Lib in my lifetime. My base assumption is you probably have a sphere of politics left, right, small gov, big gov etc and your extreme positions generally moderate over time.

 

[Jascave]

Does the Victorian Electoral Commission website have a backup program in place in case their website crashes on the most important night of the year-election night-due to the extraordinary volume of traffic and interest that will be hitting it ie Australian Census website crash 2016?

 

[GreatBradScott]

Does the Victorian Electoral Commission website have a backup program in place in case their website crashes on the most important night of the year-election night-due to the extraordinary volume of traffic and interest that will be hitting it ie Australian Census website crash 2016?

Pretty sure they've got it under control.

 

[Jascave]

If Labor wins the election, it would be interesting to hear and read what the supporters of the Liberals-namely the Herald Sun, Neil Mitchell on 3AW, Andrew Bolt, Peta Credlin, Paul Murray on Sky News and Channel 7-respond to Daniel Andrews winning his second term in office on the Monday after the election.

 

[Maggie5]

I’d be interested to hear from people who have switched and the reasons why. I’m 15 years away (from 48) and I’m probably more conservative than I was 10 years ago, I still vote ALP and don’t see myself voting Lib in my lifetime. My base assumption is you probably have a sphere of politics left, right, small gov, big gov etc and your extreme positions generally moderate over time.

I voted Liberal up until my mid 30's, mainly due to family voting that way.

Then working in Welfare and Adult Education in the Workplace, got me thinking on how a number of policies impact others (have never voted for self interest) and started to take a keener interest in politics. I switched and vote Labor (Lower House) and Greens or Labor (Upper, depending on who was standing) in both State and Federal elections. Although I did have high hopes for Malcolm federally.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

A recent British study put the average age which voters switch conservative is about 48

Not to say that age will persist in future elections

I think recent data out of the US is suggesting that this transition is not taking place like it once did.

The reason is growing innequality. Basically these people aren't boomers or early gen-Xers with easy secure jobs, lots of asset wealth, low personal debt etc. so there isn't the incentive to vote conservative.

Likewise a shift in social values.

The only demographic this isn't the case is wealthy white suburban males.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

I’d be interested to hear from people who have switched and the reasons why. I’m 15 years away (from 48) and I’m probably more conservative than I was 10 years ago, I still vote ALP and don’t see myself voting Lib in my lifetime. My base assumption is you probably have a sphere of politics left, right, small gov, big gov etc and your extreme positions generally moderate over time.

I'm steadily shifting more libertarian left the older I get.

I was solidly in the radical catagory in high school, eased into a moderate centre left soccdem as I got older and am now approaching Murray Bookchin territory.

The reason is obvious, the rise of reactionaries, the failure of the centre to control capitals worst impulses and climate change.

We require dramatic action in that regard and capitalism doesn't seem up to the task.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

If Labor wins the election, it would be interesting to hear and read what the supporters of the Liberals-namely the Herald Sun, Neil Mitchell on 3AW, Andrew Bolt, Peta Credlin, Paul Murray on Sky News and Channel 7-respond to Daniel Andrews winning his second term in office on the Monday after the election.

Interesting is one word for it.

Frothing mania is around the mark. Something along the lines of, the public shouldn't be allowed to vote, this is the end of Victoria, yadda yadda.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Turnbull will blamed, somewhat correctly as the days of parties pretending their federal and state divisions have nothing to do with each other "and voters tell the difference" are over.

 

[Hornberger]

I get the pace of modern life, but for election nerds here, if yesterdays pre-poll numbers are to be sustained, something like nearly 70% of people will have voted before election day.

Fascinating.

Where are pre-poll numbers published?

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Glenn Druery (who lives in NSW) will help microparties you've never of and almost certainly haven't voted for get elected again in the upper house.

Nominations for party candidates ahead of the November 24 Victorian election closed at noon today and independents have another 24 hours before we’ll see the full list of participants on Friday evening.

The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) has been publishing nominations as they come in, and it looks like we’ll have a record number of candidates courtesy of group voting tickets (yes, the old Senate system) in the upper house, sparking a record number of micro-parties playing the preference-harvesting game.

Senator Derryn Hinch’s chief of staff, preference whisperer Glenn Druery, is running his usual business model of encouraging micro-parties to forget about ideology and instead preference each other first in order to maximise the number of minor party MPs in the upper house.

However, as Reason Party MP Fiona Patten revealed to The Age following a complaint to the VEC, Druery is seeking both an up-front payment of $5000 from each micro-party, plus a success fee of $50,000 for each MP elected. The VEC has now referred the Patten complaint to Victoria Police, as The Age reported today.

Hinch has dismissed these concerns about Druery, and one of Hinch’s candidates in South Eastern Metropolitan region, Kerri Guy, told a candidates’ forum hosted by the City of Greater Dandenong last night that Druery is running the same business he has always run.

Druery is a New South Wales-based figure who has had most success getting Shooters Party types and several other anti-Greens operatives elected to various upper houses.

Indeed, one of his most famous creations, former Motoring Enthusiast Party senator Ricky Muir, is contesting the lower house seat of Morwell at this election for the Fishers, Shooters and Farmers Party.

The “little guys stick together” mantra is great for getting unrepresentative representation, but it also relies on party bosses with an ambition to serve. Druery can then manipulate that to influence who wins and that is often driven by who pays or who he likes the least.

With eight different upper house regions each electing five MPs, the Druery model works best to have eight different micro-parties in the field, all of which are focused on winning a different one of those regions. For instance, the Eastern Metropolitan region is the toughest territory because the three big parties all have primary votes or surpluses of around 8% when the eliminations begin. This region has been allocated to the little-known pop-up party registered as Health Australia, whose lead candidate, Andrew Hicks, is already listed among the 43 registered candidates.

Where it gets difficult is when you have competing interests in particular regions; that is what is happening in the Northern Metropolitan region, where former Sex Party founder Fiona Patten is seeking re-election under her new political brand of Reason.

Northern Metro is the only region where the Greens have historically achieved a quota in their own right and therefore have a small surplus to offer other micro-parties. They certainly assisted getting Patten elected in 2014.

However, there are two other very determined progressive micro-parties that are also fixated on winning the fifth spot in Northern Metro, knocking off Fiona Patten who has, by any measure, chalked up an impressive range of achievements (a safe injecting facility in North Richmond, voluntary euthanasia legislation and exclusion zones around abortion clinics) in her first term.

The first is Victoria’s most prominent Socialist, City of Yarra councillor Stephen Jolly, who seems to have finally united the various socialist factions behind the single goal of getting him elected on Greens preferences in Northern Metropolitan. There is a Socialist army swarming Northern Metropolitan at the moment.

The Greens have not particularly enjoyed Fiona Patten’s success on various progressive issues and traditionally preferenced the Socialists, so that is an arrangement you would expect to see in Northern Metro when the group voting tickets are lodged on Sunday.

However, IT entrepreneur Bruce Poon, Victorian president and founder of the Animal Justice Party, also has his heart set on replacing Fiona Patten as the micro-party representative for Northern Metropolitan.

Animal Justice has a membership that ideologically lines up with the Greens, but if Poon has any chance of winning, he might need preferences from the micro-parties on the right.

The Liberal Democrats have identified South Eastern Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan as two seats they could win, and the Shooters are trying to hang onto their existing seats in Northern Victoria and Eastern Victoria.

Animal Justice is standing more than 50 candidates across both houses, but if they suddenly discover they have been used as part of a preference pact that could appoint gun nuts and libertarians to the Victorian upper house, Poon might find himself under extreme pressure internally.

As for the Greens, and Socialist Stephen Jolly, they also have important decisions to make on Sunday about who they preference first out of Reason and Animal Justice. The same goes for the two major parties.

If you see all the right-wing micro-parties piling in behind Poon in Northern Metropolitan, you’ll know that a dirty backroom deal has been done that will not go down well in progressive Victoria.

Druery is particularly motivated to knock-off Patten after her complaint to the VEC — and Leyonhjelm is also no supporter, after he was blamed for failing to lodge some group voting tickets at the 2013 federal election that would have seen Patten elected ahead of Ricky Muir.

Perhaps the simplest way to summarise this situation is a bunch of ambitious, scheming men all trying to run a good independent woman out of the Victorian Parliament.

Clarification: Bruce Poon has assured Crikey that Animal Justice will preference all progressive micro-parties before the Shooters and the LDP in all eight upper house regions.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/11/08/victorian-election-preference-deals/

High time group voting tickets were abolished as was done in the Senate.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Micro-parties set to win big in Victorian election after vote swap

The disparate crossbenchers could increase their grip on Victoria's upper house – Legislative Council – with good chances of winning seats in all eight regions, under group voting tickets revealed on Monday.

Two new parties registered this year have excellent chances of making the new council, after getting indulgent treatment from the other micro-parties in the deals masterminded by “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery.

In the Eastern Metropolitan region, for example, the little-known Transport Matters party founded by hire car owner Rod Barton has been allocated second preferences by nine of the other 17 parties in the race, including Labor. ABC analyst Antony Green estimated yesterday that Barton could be elected with as little as 0.31 per cent of the vote.

A similar set of deals in South-Eastern Metropolitan could see medico Dr Ali Khan elected for the party. And another preference swag could see Carrum Downs “life coach” Stuart O’Neill elected in the western suburbs as leader of the Aussie Battler party.

All but one of the 18 parties standing appear to have been involved in some way in the deals organised by Mr Druery, now chief of staff to Senator Derryn Hinch, and the mathematical talent who has installed many clients into Australian parliaments after winning few votes but many preferences.

The group voting tickets, now abolished everywhere except Victoria and Western Australia, allow voters to simply tick a box above the line, allowing the parties to allocate their preferences. In 2014, Team Druery won five of the 40 Council seats that way.

It is impossible to say at this stage who will win with any certainty, but the Liberals stand to lose another two seats to Team Druery, and the Greens could lose another two of the five they hold. Here is a quick summary.

NORTHERN METRO (now ALP 2, Lib 1, Greens 1, Reason 1): The battle royal for the micro-parties of the left! Animal Justice leader Bruce Poon and socialist Stephen Jolly challenge Fiona Patten for her seat, while Hinch’s candidate Carmela Dagiandis will get a swag of preferences. Labor’s surplus will go to Patten, the Greens’ surplus to Jolly, and the Liberals to Dagiandis. But Patten would get preferences from Poon or Jolly if either drop out.

EASTERN METRO (now Lib 3, ALP 1, Greens 1): Liberals should win two, Labor one, with the last two fought out between Liberal, Labor, Green, Transport Matters, with the anti-vaccination Health Australia and Sustainable Australia parties well-placed if they can win enough votes to survive the cull. Derryn Hinch’s Justice party also has a chance.

SOUTH-EASTERN METRO (now ALP 2, Lib 2, Greens 1): Labor’s backroom boys gave their preferences to Transport Matters – who responded by putting them last in every seat! The Greens’ seat is the marginal one. Here too, the new taxi-drivers’ party has swept the preference deals, and could battle the Greens for the final spot.

SOUTHERN METRO (now Lib 3, ALP 1, Greens 1): The Liberals and the Greens have the vulnerable seats. The micro-party preferences are directed to Sustainable Australia, but it may not get the votes to take advantage of them. The Greens and Animal Justice both have a chance, as does the Justice party, if the smaller parties drop out.

WESTERN METRO (now ALP 2, Lib 1, Greens 1, Ind 1): The Greens’ seat here is marginal, and Rachel Carling-Jenkins, elected for the DLP in 2014, is standing elsewhere. Battlers’ leader Stuart O’Neill lives in Carrum Downs, but is standing here, and stands to gain a swag of preferences.

EASTERN VICTORIA (now Lib/Nat 2, ALP 2, Shooters 1): The two major parties should win two each. Liberal preferences got the Shooters home above the Greens in 2014, and it could be the same again this time. The microparties’ preference swaps are less disciplined in this one: the new Aussie Battlers party got the best of them.

NORTHERN VICTORIA (now Lib/Nat 2, ALP 2, Shooters 1): The Shooters’ seat is the vulnerable one; the preference deals don’t point to a clear-cut favourite. Independent Josh Hudson and the Battlers could also be in it if they clear the initial cull.

WESTERN VICTORIA: (now ALP 2, Lib/Nat 2, Ind 1): Port Fairy accountant James Purcell pinched the final seat from the Greens in 2014 on a swag of preference deals; but he too is standing for the Assembly. This time the preference deals favour Geelong police officer Stuart Grimley of the Justice party, but the Greens, Australian Country Party and DLP all have a chance.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...election-after-vote-swap-20181112-p50flk.html

 

[Bomberboyokay]

The preference lottery

Federal Senate voting laws were changed in early 2016 to eliminate the so-called “preference lottery”. Instead of parties deciding preferences, voters were given the right to mark their own preferences above the line.

The old system made it easy for parties to make complex preference deals without needing to convince their voters to go along with them, and allowed parties with minuscule votes to leapfrog others and win.

Victoria still uses group voting tickets for its Legislative Council, so the preference whisperers will have another chance to make backroom deals and get a candidate elected on a small primary vote. Upper house members are elected to represent one of eight regions, with each region covered by five members, so the voting system looks a lot like the old Senate voting system.

These preference deals often rely on a party running in every region so that they can swap preferences between regions. This has motivated almost every party to run in every region: the same 18 parties are running in all eight regions, with only a handful of other candidates added to the mix. This has produced a record large ballot paper: candidate numbers have increased by more than 80% since 2010.

This make a good position on the ballot more valuable. Pay attention in particular to the Liberal Democratic party, which has benefited in the past from confused Liberal voters, and did particularly well when it drew the first position on the New South Wales Senate ballot in 2013. It has drawn the first spot on the ballot in the Eastern Metropolitan region.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...n-south-east-melbourne-and-marginal-regionals

 

[Bomberboyokay]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/gvt/