Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

Jascave

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Thread starter #1
With the federal election looming on the horizon, predict the results of the election (both House of Representatives and Senate), and how many seats do you think the major parties will win this election.


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Messenger

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It’s going to be a rout; recent prediction is that the Libs may be left with only two seats in Victoria, with Dan Tehan left to stare gormlessly into the headlights of opposition.

It will have the effect of having the libs lurch further to the right with a number of Vic moderates being tipped out.
 
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It's an existential crisis right now for the Libs, if the ALP can hold it together in government as they have in opposition then they're are in all sorts of trouble. A lurch to the right won't help them with the electorate and while that hard core rump of Abbottistas remain in the party room any attempt to moderate policy is met with howls of outrage and threats. Where they go after the election is anybody's guess.
 

Jascave

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If the recent Victorian election is any guide to the federal election, then the Coalition Government MPs (including the Cabinet) would be wise to pre-book appointments with Centrelink before campaigning for the election starts, because most of those MPs could be not only out of government, they could be out of a job as well.


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Jascave

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It would be funny to watch the reaction of prominent government ministers who would be part of the major TV networks panels (ie Nine, ABC, Sky News) when PM Scott Morrison concedes defeat late on election night.


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Jascave

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Not even a hard-earned budget surplus would be enough to get the Coalition over the line in the election. It will be chastening for the Coalition MPs sitting on the opposition benches to watch the new Treasurer, Labor’s Chris Bowen announce a surplus in the next federal budget after the election.


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#14
Labor with around 90 seats, potentially closer to 100 if this pattern of wealthier, blue-ribbon seats swinging hard is not just confined to Melbourne.
Some of those seats might end up going the independent option. They tend to be seats where people have enough money to fund a Phelps-style campaign and some often have a public profile already. Its a touch easier in by-elections where national media focus is on one seat; and regional seats with local media; but its hard to imagine the likes of Kooyong or Warringah voting Labor either.
 
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#16
Not even a hard-earned budget surplus would be enough to get the Coalition over the line in the election. It will be chastening for the Coalition MPs sitting on the opposition benches to watch the new Treasurer, Labor’s Chris Bowen announce a surplus in the next federal budget after the election.


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Fitch is forecasting that the Morrison government's forecast budget surplus for 2019/20 May not occur.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fitch...get-surplus-amid-slowing-economy-201901090325
 

pazza

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#17
Tipping a 55/45 gap in 2PP.

Liberal and National seats held in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia will fall in a big way.

Half Senate Elections are harder to call. Expect to see a number of crossbenchers go.
 

Jascave

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Thread starter #18
Antony Green called the Victorian election at 7.18pm.

He'll call the Federal Election earlier than that.
Which means, if that was to occur on election night, we won't have to wait on the Western Australian votes to come through at 9:00pm.

BTW, don't be surprised that the biggest cheers of the night erupting from Labor's election night function will be when Peter Dutton loses his seat in Queensland, and also when PM Scott Morrison announces that he has conceded defeat to Blll Shorten.
 

nobbyiscool

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#19
Which means, if that was to occur on election night, we won't have to wait on the Western Australian votes to come through at 9:00pm.

BTW, don't be surprised that the biggest cheers of the night erupting from Labor's election night function will be when Peter Dutton loses his seat in Queensland, and also when PM Scott Morrison announces that he has conceded defeat to Blll Shorten.
You really do love stating the bleeding ******* obvious don't you?
 

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#20
Which means, if that was to occur on election night, we won't have to wait on the Western Australian votes to come through at 9:00pm.

BTW, don't be surprised that the biggest cheers of the night erupting from Labor's election night function will be when Peter Dutton loses his seat in Queensland, and also when PM Scott Morrison announces that he has conceded defeat to Blll Shorten.
Ive got a 300 year old Calvados ready for that
 

SBD Gonzalez

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#22
I predict that Labor's biggest problem to be managed will be hubris.

Gonna be an absolute shellacking of this godawful, disgusting, disgraceful, arrogant, incompetent, thick-as-shit "government".
 

Jascave

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Thread starter #23
Based on current population trends WA will lose a seat and Victoria gain a seat after the election.
The Sunday political shows on TV will be interesting to watch, especially the morning after the election. Even more so when Liberals MPs turn up to talk about the election defeat to Labor and who to blame for the loss, especially if the Coalition are at the wrong end of a landslide result.


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Hawk Dork

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#24
I predict that Labor's biggest problem to be managed will be hubris.

Gonna be an absolute shellacking of this godawful, disgusting, disgraceful, arrogant, incompetent, thick-as-shit "government".
A few people may get elected that might not deserve it too,controlling them may be a problem
Economic downturn predicted too.
 

Jascave

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Thread starter #25
If Labor is elected into power, there’s one thing I’d like to see them do in regards to Question Time in Parliament, and that is end the ‘Dorothy Dixers’.

There nothing more boring than to watch a government backbencher rise to his/her feet during Question Time and say, ‘Mr Speaker, my question is directed to the Minister for Industrial Relations. What is the government response to Labor putting in more money to the union movement and how will it affect my seat of ie Calare?


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